Quote:
if you have +hit gear, you will reduce the mob's chance to dodge, block and parry. this allows you to increase your [hit+crit] to above 19.2%.
*blink*
No. No, it won't.
WORKING FROM A WARRIOR'S PERSPECTIVE HERE, since I have a better understanding of the math/Warrior abilities... and I'm not sure what kind of a miss rate that Sword Spec procs use (base miss rate? 5%? Hmm).
Consider the raiding warrior. We are going to assume the following values for simplicity's sake;
25.5% Crit
1500 Buffed AP (including BS, etc.)
6% Hit
Which are decent stats but far from obscene - still, no slouch here. This theoretical warrior, who we'll call Groucho, has Sword Specialization and happens to be fighting a handy boss mob, who we'll call Marx.
Now, on any given swing there are four possible events;
a) Groucho whiffs for whatever reason (Dodge, Parry or Miss) and deals zero damage.
b) Groucho lands a Glancing Blow and deals 70% damage. (White damage only.)
c) Groucho lands a hit and deals 100% damage.
d) Groucho lands a crit and deals 200% damage. (220% on Yellow)
Now, let's put all of this together...
Groucho has 6% hit, which means that even against boss mobs he will never miss an attack ('miss' miss, as in the actual miss event). Because he's standing behind the boss, Groucho cannot be parried by Marx - but he can still be dodged, at a 5.5% chance.
Event a = .055 * 0
Groucho can no longer reduce glancing blows (damn you, Blizz!) and therefore has no way to reduce the 40% glancing blow rate against a boss mob.
Event b = .4 * .7
Ignoring event c for a moment, Groucho has a 25.5% crit rate (reduced to 25% against a boss mob due to the defense difference).
Event d = .25 * 2
And event c is the 'catch-all' event, taking the remainder probability and multiplying it by one - to whit, 29.5%.
Event c = .295 * 1
So, when you add them all together...
.055 * 0 + .4 * .7 + .295 * 1 + .25 * 2 = 0 + .28 + .295 + .5 = 1.075 of your 'normal' damage per swing.
Now, assume that you added in Axe Spec to the equation... you'll change the equation to;
.055 * 0 + .4 * .7 + .245 * 1 + .3 * 2 = 0 + .28 + .245 + .6 = 1.125
Or, compared to the previous number... a 4.65% increase in DPS.
Now! Sword Spec.
It will proc on attacks that connect, and _not_ misses... so, going by the previous number, it should have a chance to proc 94.5% of the time. Moreover, it follows the same numbers as previously used - it should land for 1.075 of your normal damage.
.945 * .05 = .0473 * 1.075 = 5.08 increased DPS, or 1.126 damage per swing - a slight bump from the Poleaxe Specialization, but it is there.
But the more significant portion of all this is how it interacts with special attack damage. It adds 4.73% of your normal white hits to damage but you ALSO generate rage off those attacks. Or, to put it another way, on every damaging special ability it reads;
"Has a 4.73% chance to deal an additional 1.075 white damage and generate rage"
...or, to use Groucho as our example...
1500 AP * 3.8 / 14 = 407.15 (Not normalized)
High Warlord 2H Sword (294 Average Damage)
-----
701.15 'base' damage * 1.075 = 753.73 damage pre-mitigation
This works out to (Speed * 1.25 + Damage / 61.5 = Rage)
3.8 * 1.25 + 753.7 / 61.5 = 12.26 * 1.075 = 13.18 * 1.25 (Endless Rage) = 16.47 Rage 'returned' on average.
Even figuring that it will, on average, only save you half the time before your next swing the increased rage is pretty huge. ~16 works out to reducing the cost of your Mortal Strike by ~50% and will cause you to actually gain rage on Hamstrings/Pummels/Whatever.