Jophiel wrote:
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And the fact that Dem primary participation is down significantly (like 80% of normal), while GOP primary participation is up massively (like 170% of normal) suggests there's at least some truth to this
Probably not much. Primary participation is based mainly around how competitive the election is and how much you care who wins (i.e. differences between candidates). The Democratic side isn't very competitive ("Clinton is going to win so why go out?") and not a lot of difference ("Eh, they're both good I guess").
Except in this case, I think it's "there's a lot of difference, but Clinton is going to win anyway". I'll also repeat my assertion that since most on the Left assume that Clinton will win, if they aren't terribly confident in Clinton, their best chance of helping the Dems win is to vote in the GOP primary for the candidate they think she has the best shot against. Which, in case you aren't keeping track, is Trump (at least if the polls are to be believed). But since in order to do this, they'd have to register as Republican (in many states at least), they might have committed to that course before the Sanders surge occurred. Allowing him to do far better in the primary than he should have.
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The GOP side is the opposite with a real chance at a contested election and active fighting between the camps of the campaigns ("We won't vote if Trump wins!" "We'll riot if the establishment steals this!", etc)
There have been large fields on the GOP side before (four years ago, in fact). We didn't see a 70% increase in primary voters then. That increase is entirely about Trump (and nicely matches up with his numbers). While I'm sure a large portion of that are disaffected people who might otherwise not get involved in any primary at all, at least some of that has got to be left leaning people who might otherwise vote in the Dem primary, but don't see a contest there, and see a weak candidate they don't have the ability to replace, and realize that their best odds are to sabotage the GOP chances by voting Trump. Um... But whichever it is (and to whatever degree), it's not just the field itself, but Trump that is causing that.
Trust me. As a Republican, I'd love for this to be a massive swelling of support for a the GOP with Trump as its leader. I mean, not from an ideological point of view, but if we're talking purely partisan here, that would be wonderful. But yeah, I suspect it's less a mass of support for Trump, and more a mass of folks who see a Trump nomination by the GOP as the best chance of a Democrat sitting in the white house next year. And again, at least by the polls through most of this race, they would be right to do so.
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That said, primary participation isn't really indicative of general election interest.
I didn't say it did. I said it indicates that Clinton is so weak that some number of voters who want the Dems to win will believe their odds are better voting for Trump in the GOP primary than voting for anyone in the Dem primary. If I were a left leaning voter, but not a member of the Democratic party, and could thus vote in either primary, you'd bet I'd be voting for Trump in the GOP primary in my state if I could. Because, as you and I both appear to agree, there is no contest on the Democrat side. So why vote when there's no doubt about who will win? But if I get to vote anyway, why not vote where I can actually make a difference?
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I understand the value in pretending otherwise for the GOP though so it's become a popular rallying cry. As for Trump's numbers being up because of Democratic "strategic" votes, nothing has given evidence to this. In fact, Trump has often done better in exit polls among "very conservatives" than Cruz.
Great. How about how he's doing among moderates or liberals? You also get that if I'm voting strategically, I can say I'm anything I want in an exit poll. If I want to pin Trump as the most evil bigoted conservative in the race, why wouldn't I claim that's what I am and why I'm voting for him in a primary? It's like you don't get the concept of sabotage here.