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#252 Nov 04 2012 at 2:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, I wasn't even going to bother with that one. Obama had 14,000 people in New Hampshire yesterday. He's doing 3-4 rallies per day; logistically some are smaller than others. According to yesterday's Twitter feeds...
Jake Tapper wrote:
For those asking, Obama crowd counts today: 4k in mentor OH; 20k in Milwaukee; 5k in dubuque IA.
Emily Friedman wrote:
Romney crowd counts today per campaign and USSS: 2,000 (NH); 2,100 (IA); 4,000 (CO); 17,000 (CO)

OMG Obama had so many more people in New Hampshire it must be because no one likes Romney! That's the only possible reason!
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#254 Nov 04 2012 at 5:46 PM Rating: Good
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
catwho wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
30k at romney rally in ohio......3k at obama rally in ohio.


Context, context....

The Obama rally with 3,000 was held in a high school gymnasium. It was at capacity and no more people were permitted inside. 700 were in an overflow area and others were turned away.

The Romney rally, the largest one they've had in a while, was held in a big empty field. Crowd was indeed estimated to be between 18,000 and 30,000.

In 2008, Obama had a rally that drew 80,000 people. The problem with events that size is that finding a place to hold them can be difficult - hence Romney opting for a big empty field.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 3:27pm by catwho


Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 5:42pm by crazylegz1975

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#255 Nov 04 2012 at 5:47 PM Rating: Good
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It's from Phoenix.

Sorry for letter transposition. Mea maxima culpa.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 7:29pm by Timelordwho
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#256 Nov 04 2012 at 5:51 PM Rating: Good
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
catwho wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
30k at romney rally in ohio......3k at obama rally in ohio.


Context, context....

The Obama rally with 3,000 was held in a high school gymnasium. It was at capacity and no more people were permitted inside. 700 were in an overflow area and others were turned away.

The Romney rally, the largest one they've had in a while, was held in a big empty field. Crowd was indeed estimated to be between 18,000 and 30,000.

In 2008, Obama had a rally that drew 80,000 people. The problem with events that size is that finding a place to hold them can be difficult - hence Romney opting for a big empty field.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 3:27pm by catwho


Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Well then it's a good thing that Romney's never had an audience smaller than 30k. And Obama's never had more than 3k. Right?
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#257 Nov 04 2012 at 5:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Zogby)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Reuters/Ipsos)

I guess playing to a 3k crowd must be better than playing to a 30k one Smiley: laugh
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#258 Nov 04 2012 at 6:06 PM Rating: Default
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Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.



It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.
#259 Nov 04 2012 at 6:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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That you have a math degree?
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#260 Nov 04 2012 at 6:09 PM Rating: Decent
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Almalieque wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.


It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.

You're right; he is an idiot if he believes that's how Phoenix is spelled.
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#261 Nov 04 2012 at 6:09 PM Rating: Default
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I see what you did there.
#262 Nov 04 2012 at 6:30 PM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.


It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.

You're right; he is an idiot if he believes that's how Phoenix is spelled.


Good thing I don't have an English degree!
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#263 Nov 04 2012 at 6:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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Sadly, his degree is in ancient Egyptian religions.
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#264 Nov 04 2012 at 6:58 PM Rating: Excellent
This a somewhat interesting demonstration of sample size etc.
http://cnx.org/content/m11206/latest/

Note that as population goes to infinity, you don't need to increase your sample size at the same rate.

for polling accuracy, the aggregate models take into account typical shifts based on time left in the past and factor that in as a source of errors.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 6:59pm by Xsarus
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#265 Nov 04 2012 at 7:21 PM Rating: Default
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Having a bachelor's degree doesn't prove anything but the ability to learn and dedication. Typically a bachelor's degree just gets your feet wet.


edit: feet sounds better than ears

Edited, Nov 5th 2012 3:26am by Almalieque
#266 Nov 04 2012 at 7:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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What's Really At Stake in Election 2012
John Avlon wrote:
The stakes in this election go far beyond just who takes the oath of office in January.

Each of us is faced with choices that will have huge ramifications in our nation for decades -- and the choice is not simply about Democrats versus Republicans or even Obama versus Romney. The real stakes are this: The political strategies that prove successful in this election will be replicated far into the future.

Throughout this election cycle, we've seen hyperpartisan narratives resonate more than facts, total opposition embraced as a congressional tactic, and unprecedented dark money flow through our airwaves in an avalanche of negative ads.

If those forces are rewarded, we'll see much more of them from both parties going forward. They will become the new normal.

If they are rejected, it may inspire a necessary recalibration and a renewed focus on finding ways to work together in Washington. This won't be just because it's the right thing to do; it will be because it is what is seen as practical and politically expedient.

When President Obama took office, the fiscal crisis was in full effect, but our nation was briefly united after the 2008 election. Then the partisan media started to try to repolarize the nation for their profit.
[...]
This has real civic cost. A president who has presided over a doubling of the stock market is called socialist or even communist. A president who ordered the killing of Osama bin Laden is seen by some as secret Islamist-sympathizer. And perhaps most important, a president whose actual record leads respected nonpartisan political scientists at the VoteView blog to say "President Obama is the most moderate Democratic president since the end of World War II" is instead seen as a far-left liberal. A reality check is overdue.

This hyperpartisan reality distortion field has impacted Congress as well. In the past, we've achieved a great deal with divided government -- ranging from the Marshall Plan, to the interstate highway system, to the achievements of the Reagan administration, to welfare reform and the turning of deficits into surpluses under President Bill Clinton and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich. But the current congressional environment has led to division and dysfunction, Super Committee fails and justifiably low congressional approval rates.
[...]
An individual mandate-driven health care bill, based on proposals from the conservative Heritage Foundation implemented by Mitt Romney in Massachusetts, was not praised as policy triangulation -- taking a Republican approach to achieve a Democratic goal -- but called an unconstitutional gallop toward socialism. Rational debate stopped when talk of "death panels" started taking hold. And so health care reform became the first major piece of social legislation to pass along stark partisan lines.

Even onetime bipartisan legislation was no longer embraced by Congress. For example, Obama's proposed jobs bill was almost entirely composed of what had been bipartisan proposals -- but it was considered DOA on Capitol Hill. The debt ceiling was used to hold America's full faith and credit hostage, with disastrous results, including the downgrading of our AAA credit rating.
[...]
Add to this unhealthy civic mix the unprecedented amount of money flowing into this election -- expected to exceed $6 billion total. The most troubling aspect is the rise of dark money, the abuse of tax-exempt 501(c)(4) organizations to hide donors while flooding the airwaves with negative ads.
[...]
If Romney is elected president, Democrats will likely decide to follow the apparently successful path of the Republicans in recent years -- play to the base with fear-mongering claims, demonize the new president from Day One, and obstruct his agenda in Congress. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, has already announced that he will not work with a President Romney, taking a page from his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, who pledged that making President Obama a one-term president was his No. 1 priority. Republicans will complain, but they will have their own precedent to thank. The result will be all-but-guaranteed gridlock and division over the next four years.

If Obama is re-elected, it will send the message that all the hyperpartisan distortions, the intensely ideological congressional obstruction and the flood of dark money didn't work.

Republicans will have to confront the fact that these extreme tactics backfired by alienating the moderate majority of Americans (and interestingly, Obama currently leads among moderate voters in key swing states like Ohio by nearly 20 points). This will alter the landscape of the next Congress and shift the incentives back toward working together on a more bipartisan basis. It might even help re-center the Republican Party going forward, something I would sincerely like to see because it would be good for our democracy.
[...]
We need Washington to get the message that I've heard from swing voters so often on the CNN Battleground Bus Tour -- stop fighting and start fixing. Find a way to work together, especially on our long-term economic problems. That means both parties agreeing to compromise on issues of taxes, spending and entitlement reform -- a balanced bipartisan plan to deal with deficits and debt. It will require putting the national interest ahead of all partisan special interests -- and we won't be able to do that until this fever breaks.

Washington is looking to your lead at the voting booth. These are the stakes. Now it is your decision. Go out and vote on November 6.

For the "Oh, he's a liberal!" whining...
Wiki wrote:
John Phillips Avlon (born 1973) is an American journalist and political commentator who is currently a senior columnist for Newsweek and the Daily Beast as well as a CNN contributor. He is also the author of Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics and Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America. [...] Avlon has also been a columnist and associate editor for The New York Sun and worked as chief speechwriter for former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
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#267 Nov 04 2012 at 7:56 PM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
Anyone think that this race will be as close as it's being stated? I want to know the who the next president will be before I go to sleep, not find out 3 days later...

Just for you.
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#268 Nov 04 2012 at 8:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Thanks...

I'm not "Pro-Obama", but I don't see how anyone can honestly think Governor Romney should be President.
#269 Nov 04 2012 at 9:13 PM Rating: Excellent
Alma wrote:
I'm not "Pro-Obama", but I don't see how anyone can honestly think Governor Romney should be President.


If you make more than say, $200K, are male, racist, and/or any flavor of Christian, it may make economical & social sense to vote for Romney.

Otherwise, idk.
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#270 Nov 04 2012 at 10:11 PM Rating: Good
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A fun chart: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/a-viewers-guide-to-who-won-the-election

NYT has a fun toy, too: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
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#271 Nov 04 2012 at 10:30 PM Rating: Good
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I came up with an election day drinking game. I haven't estimated how drunk it'll actually get you, so follow at your own risk:

http://trickybeck.tumblr.com/post/35021458372/2012-election-day-drinking-game

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#272 Nov 04 2012 at 10:34 PM Rating: Excellent
I'm not sure I'll be able to handle that game. I will be in Boston for the election though, so I can experience the american election in the US! Maybe I'll find a microbrewery.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 10:35pm by Xsarus
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#275 Nov 05 2012 at 6:00 AM Rating: Default
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)


Happy now?
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#276 Nov 05 2012 at 6:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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Rasmussen didn't poll Ohio yesterday. Their tie is from the day before. Also, they used to have Romney leading so a tie now shows movement towards Obama.

Edit: actually their poll was from the 1st. On October 28th they had R+2 so if you want to use them as gospel, Romney lost 2 points in three days.

Edited, Nov 5th 2012 6:18am by Jophiel
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