Wouldn't individual state polling be more important, considering your president is not decided by popular vote? I mean a national poll is more or less useless as a decisive indicator as to who will win the election or not. Regardless who is leading and who isn't.
From the looks of state polls Obama is very far out front, considering he only needs a handful more electoral votes to tie up the election. Based on state poling the map is looking pretty blue, and I think that is a much stronger indicator of who will win. http://electoral-vote.com/
According to that site Obama is polling higher in all but 2 swing states. A pretty healthy position to be in going into the debates, events which are arguably Obama's strong suit, at least much more than Romney.
But you have to look at the historical trend. Obama's lead has steadily shrunk over the last 6 months. States he had a firm lead in are now "barely dem" on that map. Another thing to look at is that there's only 2 states in the "barely gop" group (one of which was leaning obama 6 months ago btw). There are a whole mess that are "barely dem". Which means that Obama is losing ground in those states and will have to defend them, while Romney has firm hold of his states and can go on the offense (frankly, has been really).
Also of those states you listed only 1 looks like Romney will win it today, NC. The rest are leaning Obama at the moment so I don't see how it looks like Romney will win any of them.
Key phrase being "at the moment". Again, you have to look at the direction things are trending. This election will be about Romney eating away at Obama's hold on those states, and Obama having to try to play defense to keep them. It will likely be very tight. Much more tight than is suggested by the polling right now.
You also have to make a distinction between polling of registered voters and "likely voters". Romney tends to do better with the latter (which does not bode well for Obama). Also, there's a significant possibility that even that is skewed. One of the problems Obama has is that the excitement for his campaign this time around isn't nearly as great as it was last time. But the polling assumes he'll get a similar turnout among voters. His lead in many states (especially the battleground states) is likely not anywhere close to as much as polling indicates.
By all means though, assume he's a guaranteed win. Hell. You guys don't even need to vote! ;)