No, it's advantageous to keep your original answer.: | 3 (10.0%) | |

Yes, it's advantageous to change your original answer.: | 12 (40.0%) | |

Changing the answer does not change your odds of winning the car: | 13 (43.3%) | |

Goat is delicious and I already own a car, so it's to my advantage to win the goat. Thus, I choose (answer below): | 2 (6.7%) | |

Total: | 30 |

Now once you've answered, look up the answer online (and go make me a meal if you chose the goat).

My question is, if we mix it up...

So you pick a door—say number #274. There’s a 1/300 chance you’re right. This needs to be emphasized: you’re almost certainly wrong. Then the game show host opens 298 of the remaining doors: 1, 2, 3, and so on. He skips door #59 and your door, #274. Every open door shows a goat. Should you switch?

The answer is the same as the first part - but I'd like, if possible, for someone to explain the logic behind it to me. I did some rough pen and paper sketches for it, but I suck at these. What is the probability if you switch, and what is the probability if you stay?

TL;DR: Locke sucks at probability visualization. And yesterday was my birthday