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Plans: Wicked Mithril BladeFollow
On my journey to learn every single thing I can with armorsmithing I am thinking about trying to find the Wicked Mithril Blade plans. From looking at drop statistics here, it looks like the Alterac Mountains Ogres seem to have the best drop rate, hell only thing consistently over 0.00% lol. Anyone got a rough estimate of how long I will be grinding them to get these plans? I know I could get it on the first drop or never, just kind of an estimate.
Quote:
I know I could get it on the first drop or never
Estimated time = (100/adr) * average time between ogre kills
adr = average drop rate of the different ogres you plan to kill (This assumes equal quantities of each ogre, but should be close unless you include rare spawns)
The 100 is to convert the percent. (1% = .01)
example:
100/.01 (most common crushridge ogres) * 20 seconds (this is a random guess) = 200000 seconds / 3600 = 55.6 hours
2 posts
Ummm, actually that calculation rather assumes that if you have say a 10% chance of getting something by completing an action, completing that action ten times is bound to get it for you :o
All your formula gives is an average of the time required killing ogres to get the plans, which is about as useful as the drop rate itself ;)
This ol' student suggests the following formula:
1-(1-averagedroprateforthemob)^(numberofmobskilled)=globaldroprate as an indication of drop rate over time.
Example : If you kill one mob per 20 seconds for one hour, that makes 180 ogres killed (which seems a bit extreme to me, but hey, your random guess is as good as mine ;). The drop rate over that time would then be roughly 1-(1-.0004)^180, where the 0.0004 is the crushridge plunderer's droprate for that item (taken as example). That equates to 1-.9305, ie. 0.0695.
Translation: killing 180 of something with a droprate of .04% brings your global droprate up to a whopping 6.95%. Woohoo.
Some quick testing to avoid more formulae shows that you have an about even chance of getting your plans after 1600 kills or so, for the figures chosen. Enjoy :P
With the figures used in Reednut's estimate, assuming you play 200000 seconds, thus creating carnage to the height of apparently 10'000 ogres, you would get a global drop rate of 98.17%
Ok, so I'm being pedantic, I arrived at the figure of 98.17% :P Hey, that's maths.
Final translation: if you spend the average time, calculated by Reednut, that it takes to find the object, there's a 1.83% chance you won't get it :P
(Sprazzlina finally goes mad and capers around throwing cartwheels shaped like crocodiles wearing pink ponchos)
All your formula gives is an average of the time required killing ogres to get the plans, which is about as useful as the drop rate itself ;)
This ol' student suggests the following formula:
1-(1-averagedroprateforthemob)^(numberofmobskilled)=globaldroprate as an indication of drop rate over time.
Example : If you kill one mob per 20 seconds for one hour, that makes 180 ogres killed (which seems a bit extreme to me, but hey, your random guess is as good as mine ;). The drop rate over that time would then be roughly 1-(1-.0004)^180, where the 0.0004 is the crushridge plunderer's droprate for that item (taken as example). That equates to 1-.9305, ie. 0.0695.
Translation: killing 180 of something with a droprate of .04% brings your global droprate up to a whopping 6.95%. Woohoo.
Some quick testing to avoid more formulae shows that you have an about even chance of getting your plans after 1600 kills or so, for the figures chosen. Enjoy :P
With the figures used in Reednut's estimate, assuming you play 200000 seconds, thus creating carnage to the height of apparently 10'000 ogres, you would get a global drop rate of 98.17%
Ok, so I'm being pedantic, I arrived at the figure of 98.17% :P Hey, that's maths.
Final translation: if you spend the average time, calculated by Reednut, that it takes to find the object, there's a 1.83% chance you won't get it :P
(Sprazzlina finally goes mad and capers around throwing cartwheels shaped like crocodiles wearing pink ponchos)
Sprazz math > Reednut math
Perhaps I should have been less simplistic, but the question indicated that a rough estimate was required. Without setting a percentage requirement for getting the item, your formula doesn't provide an answer. Perhaps one way would be to use your formula with a 99 percent requirement. Also, you have chosen a rare (under 5k listed in the statistics vs 75k for the enforcers) ogre type, so I will use the .01 percent drop rate from the others.
If we want a 99 percent chance of getting the drop, then the numbers should look like this:
1-(1-0.0001)^x=0.99
Since I have Excel but no advanced math books nearby, I will iterate on the number of ogres until I achieve a 99 percent chance of the item dropping. If I am correct, then you would need to kill 46000 ogres. Multiplying by 20 seconds (per ogre kill) and dividing by 3600 to get the answer in hours, it will take 255.5 hours of grinding ogres to have a 99 percent chance of getting your plan. Please correct me if I missed something.
For reference, you would have only a 63.2 percent chance of getting the item after the 10000 ogres I mentioned in my first response. (Out of school too long FTL)
Perhaps I should have been less simplistic, but the question indicated that a rough estimate was required. Without setting a percentage requirement for getting the item, your formula doesn't provide an answer. Perhaps one way would be to use your formula with a 99 percent requirement. Also, you have chosen a rare (under 5k listed in the statistics vs 75k for the enforcers) ogre type, so I will use the .01 percent drop rate from the others.
Quote:
1-(1-averagedroprateforthemob)^(numberofmobskilled)=globaldroprate
If we want a 99 percent chance of getting the drop, then the numbers should look like this:
1-(1-0.0001)^x=0.99
Since I have Excel but no advanced math books nearby, I will iterate on the number of ogres until I achieve a 99 percent chance of the item dropping. If I am correct, then you would need to kill 46000 ogres. Multiplying by 20 seconds (per ogre kill) and dividing by 3600 to get the answer in hours, it will take 255.5 hours of grinding ogres to have a 99 percent chance of getting your plan. Please correct me if I missed something.
For reference, you would have only a 63.2 percent chance of getting the item after the 10000 ogres I mentioned in my first response. (Out of school too long FTL)
Thanks for the info. I'm still debating if I'm gonna go ahead and do it. Might just put in an hour or so a day to see if I can get lucky.
Since its a world drop, your never guaranteed to get it, even if you would play for 100 years, you would be better off farming gold and praying someone puts in on the AH. :)
2 posts
Quote:
For reference, you would have only a 63.2 percent chance of getting the item after the 10000 ogres I mentioned in my first response. (Out of school too long FTL)
:) been about ten years since I had to do anything like this type of maths, I feel your pain at lack-of-school-syndrome :P
Lausifer, your answer was, IMHO, the only truly reasonable suggestion here :P You're better off doing other stuff and waiting for lady luck to bring it to the AH. Of course, another way of doing it would be to ask on the WoW forum, or create a gazillion alts, find a realm where it already is on the AH, pay for a character transfer, get the plans, transfer back out.
This should take about 12 hours of your time. You could then and find a job in real life for the remaining 243.5 hours to pay for your transfers and then some :P
Hey, I'm a newbie. That's how I'd do it. No, really. Not.
I would just pray for someone to post it on the AH, but its BoP so......
Too bad you can't get to the last boss in Uldaman solo as the chest there is best drop rate and i know I could solo it, but you need 3 people to open the gates to that last room so thats a no go lol.
Too bad you can't get to the last boss in Uldaman solo as the chest there is best drop rate and i know I could solo it, but you need 3 people to open the gates to that last room so thats a no go lol.
32 posts
Anyone know where to find a guide on all the blacksmithing recipes? Preferably with a check box, please. :D
Did you see the list on this site?
http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/skill.html?line=164
I am not sure where to get one with check boxes. You might try a Google search.
http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/skill.html?line=164
I am not sure where to get one with check boxes. You might try a Google search.
5 posts
I got this one while farming for golden pearls in tanaris, it dropped from a random turtle there... No idea of how many of those turtles I've killed but thats alot and more then that... So now I got rare drop from them, so now I'm over to kill somethign else :P
Just /w me if u want it, I'm an armor/swordsmith (yes actually both) on Draenor EU
Just /w me if u want it, I'm an armor/swordsmith (yes actually both) on Draenor EU
Honestly, if you hope to make money from the plans, forget about it.
I have the plans, found them in a lockbox. I find it funny that they are BoP. I have never sold a single one. It's just a horrible place level wise for such a weapon.
I have the plans, found them in a lockbox. I find it funny that they are BoP. I have never sold a single one. It's just a horrible place level wise for such a weapon.
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