Remora Discussion: MogbonanzaFollow

Yes - clearly this will impact the economy. All the Intertubes are abuzz with speculation of how this is going to cause the RMT to go into paroxysms (sp?) of delight.

But it just ain't so.

SE tells us there are 1.7 million content IDs out there - so thus 1.7 million player charecters - taken from a "Maximum" scenario - if everyone of those players purchased the max amount of Mag Marbles at 1000g each SE would have just removed a total of 17 BILLION gil out of the economies of all servers combined.

Even if there are a number Rank 1 winners (and even maxed your odds there are still a slim 160/100000) you have to look at what prize would be chosen. Depending on who won a Rank 1 prize the 100 million may not even see its way back into the economy (Kraken Club? {Yes Please!}) so it goes for Rank 2 and 3, it's not until you get down to 4 and 5 that you will start seeing more winners - and lets face it everyone who buys 10 marbles will win AT LEAST the Rank 5 prize if you have a brain. The House Always Wins is true in all gambling - and a lottery is no different.

Remember there is NO REASON to believe there will even be one Rank 1 winner. While it's a statistical likelihood that there will be one or more Rank 1 winners, once you start talking about chance coupled with choice all those rules go out the window. Culture and socialization begin to have an effect. There will be the anal-yzer, who designs dizzying spreadsheets in order to try to determine what numbers to buy - and will no doubt spend the next 16 days leveling every single contentID they can purchase to 5 to maximize their marble numbers (160? 16 total IDs and ten per, check me). You will have the "Lucky Number" people (777XX will be popular, as will 666XX and 999XX) so there will not be a true stochastic distribution of choices, thus its completely possible that nobody wins.

Except SE

Who removes BILLIONS from the economies.

And get's people to max out their content IDs and level low levels for a few weeks pumping major cash into their business.

It's freakin brilliant if you ask me.

Edited, May 1st 2008 6:28am by Maumauva

With the amount of gil floating around, I don't think it will impact the economy as a whole very much. If someone does win the first place prize, I hope it is someone who deserves it. If they spent it right they could make a sh*t ton in the long run.

Hope I win, I still have a nekkid RNG, BLM, and THF I need to get equipment for again.