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Oh how I loathe(sp?) these... lol. Although, I find WHMs wipe to them more commonly than others(save melee, they usually don't stand a chance without mage's buffs). I've been lucky enough to only have it happen twice though, how many have you been through? :D
Three times. I really wish I'd kept better count of how many total runs I've done, but I've only been able to keep track of the deaths >_< I'd say I've done around 50-60 runs in all, maybe?
My guess is that it's around a 5% (1 in 20) chance for it to land fully unresisted, assuming you've got your Bar-spell up and your Enhancing is at an acceptable enough level to push your magic "evasion" up to the cap.
I really hate the randomness factor of Bar-spells in general. Most of the time they work great and they reduce the damage to the point where it doesn't even break Stoneskin, and sometimes it just completely ignores the Bar-spell, cuts through the full Stoneskin and nails me for full damage (which in the case of primes' Astral Flow, it's for more HP than I possess).