Loosening Up in IranFollow

Think less conventional war and more like can Israel withstand the political fallout of a preemptive strike. This isn't like them blowing up some random factory in South Sudan or something. It's a lot more risky since it could well trigger an outright war. Even if Israel turned Iran into a sheet of glass it could well be one of those Pyrrhic victory thingies if their position in the international community is tainted sufficiently. The U.S. may be able to block any U.N. action, but the American public is going to be lukewarm on anything that gets us mired down in the region again.

If you ask me Netanyahu is so grumpy precisely because he doesn't have another decent option. When we failed to attack Syria, he could afford to throw a couple of bombs into the chaos without risking much in the way of retribution, but I really doubt that's much of an option with Iran. Or at least not one that's easily taken.

Edited, Nov 26th 2013 8:53am by someproteinguy

It may surprise you, but in this case I, partially, agree with you.

You got me a little curious too. What do you think about Japan then? Not so long ago they were supposed to surpass US and all that. What happened? Hell, not so long ago, EU was supposed to surpass US. What is happened? Now, soon, China will surpass US. What is happening?

It must be interesting being in your head; nice, simple equations everywhere. China is hardly immune. If anything, its very existence depends on global economy wanting cheap ****, which you actually mentioned. It is a little hard to worry about to new iteration of ipad when you are not sure where your next meal might be coming from.

As for good wealth distribution...well, define good. It definitely is good for some people. But I am not sure it is good in the way I think you thought you meant it. The rest of the list you are ,probably - it is not that easy to verify - correct on.

I hate to pour some rain on your parade, but a lot can happen between now and 2017. I don't even mean anything really crazy; maybe just China getting to the end of the industrial revolution stage, ABCs ( and other, not completely unrelated, environmental issues ), or social unrests ( though those might end up being across the world ) just to name a few.

In case you are wondering why I have such a sunny outlook on life.. well, there is a limited amount of toys, and a lot of people who will not want to share. Take a wild guess as to how this can affect the world.

I may be mistaken, but people in China are not likely to be immune to being human.

Ugly and Alma being a prime example.

Well that didn't take long.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13920905001087

Iran Strongly Rejects Text of Geneva Agreement Released by White House

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday called invalid a press release by the White House alleged to be the text of the nuclear agreement struck by Iran and the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China, Britain and France plus Germany) in Geneva on Sunday.
“What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action (the title of the Iran-powers deal), and this fact sheet has unfortunately been translated and released in the name of the Geneva agreement by certain media, which is not true,” Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham said on Tuesday.

She said that the four-page text under the name of the Joint Plan of Action (which has been released by the Iranian foreign ministry) was the result of the agreement reached during the Geneva talks and all of its sentences and words were chosen based on the considerations of all parties to the talks. In fact one of the reasons why negotiations between Iran and the G5+1 took so long pertained to the accuracy which was needed for choosing the words for the text of the agreement, Afkham said, explaining that the Iranian delegation was much rigid and laid much emphasis on the need for this accuracy.

Afkham said that the text of the Joint Plan of Action was provided to the media a few hours after the two sides agreed on it.

After the White House released a modified version of the deal struck by Iran and the six world powers in Geneva early Sunday morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry released the text of the agreement.

The full text of the deal is as follows:

Geneva, 24 November 2013

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran's nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-bystep process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran's nuclear programme.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council's consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith. Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

• From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.

• Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.

• Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant1, Fordow2, or the Arak reactor3, designated by the IAEA as IR-40.

• Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.

• No new locations for the enrichment.

• Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.

• No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

• Enhanced monitoring:

o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iran's plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.

o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.

o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.

o Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.

o IAEA inspector managed access to:

centrifuge assembly workshops4;

centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and, uranium mines and mills

What's this about touching now?



So wait, who lied about what, or what happened now? I'm no expert, but that full document seems to be consistent with what I'd heard about the Iran deal.

Maybe I need to get my news from other sources?

Pfft, pass. Where's the fun in that?

So the White House basically paraphrased it in a way that made them look better, and Iran didn't have the political savvy to keep their mouth shut?

Edited, Nov 27th 2013 11:27am by someproteinguy

One of them is completely wrong about the specifics. The "stops enriching for 6 months AND dismantles the infrastructure" piece is way more of a concession than "stops enriching for 6 months, and we'll let you know if we feel like stopping enriching anymore after month 7 after you give us our 6 billion dollars back and we have time to transfer it to russian banks" or the "gets rid of all their 20% enriched uranium" vs. "get rid of half the 20% enriched uranium and keep the rest for this "reactor" that totally isn't a poorly concealed breeder reactor project" section. They also apperently added in a section that says U.S. agreed to recognize explicity the right of Iran to research nuclear power, and that we have explicitly agreed never to attack them with pointy objects ever again no matter what or something like that to their press releases.

U.S.A.!!
U.S.A.!!
U.S.A.!!