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The Measure of Success

#1 Jun 25 2013 at 3:26 PM Rating: Default
35,208 posts
Elinda wrote:
It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value. Unemployment rates go up and down as much from the work force shrinking and contracting as much as job creation. But job numbers rarely go negative - particularly when the country as a whole is growing out of a recession

The article suggests that job numbers grew because their perspective state governments either stimulated the economy or cut corporate tax rates. Would that lead one to hypothesize that those states that didn't add jobs perhaps suffered under a government that did neither and therefore job loss or gain would be more dependent on federal legislation or simply stalled??

What I don't get is that you're asking people to speculate about why something happened, but then when someone (like myself) does just that, you don't like the answer. There is not enough data readily available for any of us to do more than toss out possible explanations (including potential zombie apocalypses). It could be any of a combination of hundreds of different factors.

As I said earlier, employment rates are not uniform. You can't expect that because unemployment is dropping nationwide that this must mean that all states unemployment rates will drop. It's not unusual at all to have 47 states rates drop and 3 to rise during a period in which the national rates dropped. Yet you're insisting that we accept your premise that this is somehow unusual and requires a special explanation. It doesn't. I know it's unsatisfying, but there really is no magical answer to the question you're asking.

Sure, there are lots of underlying factors. Despite Maine's decrease in jobs unemployment dropped during the same time period. So obviously the work force shrunk.

And maybe folks moved to another state with a lower unemployment rate, resulting in an increase in work force greater than the increase in jobs in that state, thus causing its rate to rise even while the rest of the nations dropped? Hypothetical? Sure. Point being we can make guesses all day long. At issue (which I mentioned before) is whether the increases in those three states represent an actual problem rather than statistical static. And the answer I gave you initially still stands: One year of delta isn't sufficient to make that declaration. It's not enough data points over a long enough period to see a trend.
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