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#252 Nov 04 2012 at 2:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, I wasn't even going to bother with that one. Obama had 14,000 people in New Hampshire yesterday. He's doing 3-4 rallies per day; logistically some are smaller than others. According to yesterday's Twitter feeds...
Jake Tapper wrote:
For those asking, Obama crowd counts today: 4k in mentor OH; 20k in Milwaukee; 5k in dubuque IA.
Emily Friedman wrote:
Romney crowd counts today per campaign and USSS: 2,000 (NH); 2,100 (IA); 4,000 (CO); 17,000 (CO)

OMG Obama had so many more people in New Hampshire it must be because no one likes Romney! That's the only possible reason!
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#254 Nov 04 2012 at 5:46 PM Rating: Good
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
catwho wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
30k at romney rally in ohio......3k at obama rally in ohio.


Context, context....

The Obama rally with 3,000 was held in a high school gymnasium. It was at capacity and no more people were permitted inside. 700 were in an overflow area and others were turned away.

The Romney rally, the largest one they've had in a while, was held in a big empty field. Crowd was indeed estimated to be between 18,000 and 30,000.

In 2008, Obama had a rally that drew 80,000 people. The problem with events that size is that finding a place to hold them can be difficult - hence Romney opting for a big empty field.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 3:27pm by catwho


Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 5:42pm by crazylegz1975

Smiley: oyvey
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#255 Nov 04 2012 at 5:47 PM Rating: Good
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It's from Phoenix.

Sorry for letter transposition. Mea maxima culpa.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 7:29pm by Timelordwho
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#256 Nov 04 2012 at 5:51 PM Rating: Good
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
catwho wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
30k at romney rally in ohio......3k at obama rally in ohio.


Context, context....

The Obama rally with 3,000 was held in a high school gymnasium. It was at capacity and no more people were permitted inside. 700 were in an overflow area and others were turned away.

The Romney rally, the largest one they've had in a while, was held in a big empty field. Crowd was indeed estimated to be between 18,000 and 30,000.

In 2008, Obama had a rally that drew 80,000 people. The problem with events that size is that finding a place to hold them can be difficult - hence Romney opting for a big empty field.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 3:27pm by catwho


Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Well then it's a good thing that Romney's never had an audience smaller than 30k. And Obama's never had more than 3k. Right?
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#257 Nov 04 2012 at 5:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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crazylegz1975 wrote:
Sorry but no way you can spin that playing to a 3k crowd is better than playing to a 30k one

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Zogby)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Reuters/Ipsos)

I guess playing to a 3k crowd must be better than playing to a 30k one Smiley: laugh
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#258 Nov 04 2012 at 6:06 PM Rating: Default
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Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.



It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.
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I'm biased against statistics
#259 Nov 04 2012 at 6:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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That you have a math degree?
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#260 Nov 04 2012 at 6:09 PM Rating: Decent
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Almalieque wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.


It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.

You're right; he is an idiot if he believes that's how Phoenix is spelled.
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#261 Nov 04 2012 at 6:09 PM Rating: Default
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I see what you did there.
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#262 Nov 04 2012 at 6:30 PM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
trickybeck wrote:

Holy shit, you have a math degree? Ask for a refund.


It's from Pheonix.


You're an idiot if you believe that.

You're right; he is an idiot if he believes that's how Phoenix is spelled.


Good thing I don't have an English degree!
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#263 Nov 04 2012 at 6:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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Sadly, his degree is in ancient Egyptian religions.
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#264 Nov 04 2012 at 6:58 PM Rating: Excellent
This a somewhat interesting demonstration of sample size etc.
http://cnx.org/content/m11206/latest/

Note that as population goes to infinity, you don't need to increase your sample size at the same rate.

for polling accuracy, the aggregate models take into account typical shifts based on time left in the past and factor that in as a source of errors.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 6:59pm by Xsarus
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#265 Nov 04 2012 at 7:21 PM Rating: Default
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Having a bachelor's degree doesn't prove anything but the ability to learn and dedication. Typically a bachelor's degree just gets your feet wet.


edit: feet sounds better than ears

Edited, Nov 5th 2012 3:26am by Almalieque
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#266 Nov 04 2012 at 7:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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What's Really At Stake in Election 2012
John Avlon wrote:
The stakes in this election go far beyond just who takes the oath of office in January.

Each of us is faced with choices that will have huge ramifications in our nation for decades -- and the choice is not simply about Democrats versus Republicans or even Obama versus Romney. The real stakes are this: The political strategies that prove successful in this election will be replicated far into the future.

Throughout this election cycle, we've seen hyperpartisan narratives resonate more than facts, total opposition embraced as a congressional tactic, and unprecedented dark money flow through our airwaves in an avalanche of negative ads.

If those forces are rewarded, we'll see much more of them from both parties going forward. They will become the new normal.

If they are rejected, it may inspire a necessary recalibration and a renewed focus on finding ways to work together in Washington. This won't be just because it's the right thing to do; it will be because it is what is seen as practical and politically expedient.

When President Obama took office, the fiscal crisis was in full effect, but our nation was briefly united after the 2008 election. Then the partisan media started to try to repolarize the nation for their profit.
[...]
This has real civic cost. A president who has presided over a doubling of the stock market is called socialist or even communist. A president who ordered the killing of Osama bin Laden is seen by some as secret Islamist-sympathizer. And perhaps most important, a president whose actual record leads respected nonpartisan political scientists at the VoteView blog to say "President Obama is the most moderate Democratic president since the end of World War II" is instead seen as a far-left liberal. A reality check is overdue.

This hyperpartisan reality distortion field has impacted Congress as well. In the past, we've achieved a great deal with divided government -- ranging from the Marshall Plan, to the interstate highway system, to the achievements of the Reagan administration, to welfare reform and the turning of deficits into surpluses under President Bill Clinton and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich. But the current congressional environment has led to division and dysfunction, Super Committee fails and justifiably low congressional approval rates.
[...]
An individual mandate-driven health care bill, based on proposals from the conservative Heritage Foundation implemented by Mitt Romney in Massachusetts, was not praised as policy triangulation -- taking a Republican approach to achieve a Democratic goal -- but called an unconstitutional gallop toward socialism. Rational debate stopped when talk of "death panels" started taking hold. And so health care reform became the first major piece of social legislation to pass along stark partisan lines.

Even onetime bipartisan legislation was no longer embraced by Congress. For example, Obama's proposed jobs bill was almost entirely composed of what had been bipartisan proposals -- but it was considered DOA on Capitol Hill. The debt ceiling was used to hold America's full faith and credit hostage, with disastrous results, including the downgrading of our AAA credit rating.
[...]
Add to this unhealthy civic mix the unprecedented amount of money flowing into this election -- expected to exceed $6 billion total. The most troubling aspect is the rise of dark money, the abuse of tax-exempt 501(c)(4) organizations to hide donors while flooding the airwaves with negative ads.
[...]
If Romney is elected president, Democrats will likely decide to follow the apparently successful path of the Republicans in recent years -- play to the base with fear-mongering claims, demonize the new president from Day One, and obstruct his agenda in Congress. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, has already announced that he will not work with a President Romney, taking a page from his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, who pledged that making President Obama a one-term president was his No. 1 priority. Republicans will complain, but they will have their own precedent to thank. The result will be all-but-guaranteed gridlock and division over the next four years.

If Obama is re-elected, it will send the message that all the hyperpartisan distortions, the intensely ideological congressional obstruction and the flood of dark money didn't work.

Republicans will have to confront the fact that these extreme tactics backfired by alienating the moderate majority of Americans (and interestingly, Obama currently leads among moderate voters in key swing states like Ohio by nearly 20 points). This will alter the landscape of the next Congress and shift the incentives back toward working together on a more bipartisan basis. It might even help re-center the Republican Party going forward, something I would sincerely like to see because it would be good for our democracy.
[...]
We need Washington to get the message that I've heard from swing voters so often on the CNN Battleground Bus Tour -- stop fighting and start fixing. Find a way to work together, especially on our long-term economic problems. That means both parties agreeing to compromise on issues of taxes, spending and entitlement reform -- a balanced bipartisan plan to deal with deficits and debt. It will require putting the national interest ahead of all partisan special interests -- and we won't be able to do that until this fever breaks.

Washington is looking to your lead at the voting booth. These are the stakes. Now it is your decision. Go out and vote on November 6.

For the "Oh, he's a liberal!" whining...
Wiki wrote:
John Phillips Avlon (born 1973) is an American journalist and political commentator who is currently a senior columnist for Newsweek and the Daily Beast as well as a CNN contributor. He is also the author of Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics and Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America. [...] Avlon has also been a columnist and associate editor for The New York Sun and worked as chief speechwriter for former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
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#267 Nov 04 2012 at 7:56 PM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
Anyone think that this race will be as close as it's being stated? I want to know the who the next president will be before I go to sleep, not find out 3 days later...

Just for you.
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#268 Nov 04 2012 at 8:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Thanks...

I'm not "Pro-Obama", but I don't see how anyone can honestly think Governor Romney should be President.
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#269 Nov 04 2012 at 9:13 PM Rating: Excellent
Alma wrote:
I'm not "Pro-Obama", but I don't see how anyone can honestly think Governor Romney should be President.


If you make more than say, $200K, are male, racist, and/or any flavor of Christian, it may make economical & social sense to vote for Romney.

Otherwise, idk.
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#270 Nov 04 2012 at 10:11 PM Rating: Good
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A fun chart: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/a-viewers-guide-to-who-won-the-election

NYT has a fun toy, too: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
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#271 Nov 04 2012 at 10:30 PM Rating: Good
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I came up with an election day drinking game. I haven't estimated how drunk it'll actually get you, so follow at your own risk:

http://trickybeck.tumblr.com/post/35021458372/2012-election-day-drinking-game

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#272 Nov 04 2012 at 10:34 PM Rating: Excellent
I'm not sure I'll be able to handle that game. I will be in Boston for the election though, so I can experience the american election in the US! Maybe I'll find a microbrewery.

Edited, Nov 4th 2012 10:35pm by Xsarus
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#275 Nov 05 2012 at 6:00 AM Rating: Default
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)


Happy now?
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#276 Nov 05 2012 at 6:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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Rasmussen didn't poll Ohio yesterday. Their tie is from the day before. Also, they used to have Romney leading so a tie now shows movement towards Obama.

Edit: actually their poll was from the 1st. On October 28th they had R+2 so if you want to use them as gospel, Romney lost 2 points in three days.

Edited, Nov 5th 2012 6:18am by Jophiel
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#277 Nov 05 2012 at 6:07 AM Rating: Decent
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Not like anyone cares, but I'll clarify my point on polling. There isn't anything inherently wrong with polling or sampling. My beef is more with how they are conducted and how they are used to justify points. I differentiate sampling a small population to determine the average height of adult males vs who will win the general election. While both might represent what they seek, there are no variables to change the former in a short amount of time.
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#278 Nov 05 2012 at 6:38 AM Rating: Good
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The problem is that these days they HAVE to adjust the polls, because so few people maintain land lines any more. The majority of the land line owners are going to be middle aged and suburban.

Not everyone who votes is middle aged and suburban!
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#279 Nov 05 2012 at 7:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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Pulse Opinion Research has a poll out today showing +2 Obama in Ohio.

Pulse Opinion Research is a division of Rasmussen polling.
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#280 Nov 05 2012 at 7:49 AM Rating: Good
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I'm excited for the race tomorrow. Our US Senate race looks like it should be a runaway with Angus King (I) up 16pts over our current Sec. of State Charlie Summers (R) - 49% vs 33% respectively. The democrat nominee is barely holding on with only 11% of the vote. Angus is my pick, but still, there is that little twinge of apprehension that things don't go as planned.

The numbers have changed little since the early days of the election when the US Chamber of Commerce did a media blitz attacking King. They spent meellions of dollars and initially had some success in moving the polling numbers, but then their returns diminished ...significantly.

Reportedly Sandy helped Obama in the polls but now there is the simple matter of logistics - will people in the storm affected areas be able to conveniently get to the polls?

Who's gonna stay up Tuesday night with me watching the numbers roll in?
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#281 Nov 05 2012 at 7:53 AM Rating: Excellent
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lulz
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#282 Nov 05 2012 at 8:05 AM Rating: Good
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Smash is losing weight - he looks like a stick guy.
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#283 Nov 05 2012 at 8:13 AM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:
Who's gonna stay up Tuesday night with me watching the numbers roll in?
The armory is having a half day, but beyond that I'm voting and not bothering until I read the morning paper.
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#284 Nov 05 2012 at 8:18 AM Rating: Good
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lolgaxe wrote:
Elinda wrote:
Who's gonna stay up Tuesday night with me watching the numbers roll in?
The armory is having a half day, but beyond that I'm voting and not bothering until I read the morning paper.

I bet you can't do it. You'll peek.
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#285 Nov 05 2012 at 8:20 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'll leave my tablet set on Politico's front page with the scrolling state updates. Hopefully, VA and OH will be called early and it'll be a quick night.

Also (unrelated):
Senator Lindsey Graham wrote:
If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn't conservative enough I'm going to go nuts. We're not losing 95% of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we're not being hard-ass enough.


Edited, Nov 5th 2012 8:21am by Jophiel
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#286 Nov 05 2012 at 8:23 AM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:


Who's gonna stay up Tuesday night with me watching the numbers roll in?


Looks like Jonwin and I will be going to a post election party at Center Stage Theater, with TV coverage of results and Beer. Smiley: chug
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#287 Nov 05 2012 at 8:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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The president tried to bribe me to canvas in WI with the reward of tickets to tomorrow's Chicago party but, alas, the demands of a two-year old outweigh the demands of the Commander-in-Chief.
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#288 Nov 05 2012 at 8:44 AM Rating: Good
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I find it hard to believe that mini Fleajoph is already 2 years old. I demand pictures.
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"England needs, examples of people who, leaving Heaven to decide whether they are to rise in the world, decide for themselves that they will be happy in it, and have resolved to seek, not greater wealth, but simpler pleasures; not higher fortune, but deeper felicity; making the first of possessions self-possession, and honouring themselves in the harmless pride and calm pursuits of peace." - John Ruskin
#289 Nov 05 2012 at 8:46 AM Rating: Decent
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Oh shit, I have to vote tomorrow. Glad you guys are here to remind me of such things.
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we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#290 Nov 05 2012 at 8:47 AM Rating: Decent
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ElneClare wrote:
I find it hard to believe that mini Fleajoph is already 2 years old. I demand pictures.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, or more like, WTF did Joph get a two year old?
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we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#291 Nov 05 2012 at 8:51 AM Rating: Excellent
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Liberals steal babies and make them work during Shabbos.
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#292 Nov 05 2012 at 8:53 AM Rating: Excellent
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Liberals steal babies

Well, we abort all of ours and then steal conservative babies and train them in our liberal arts. Like gypsies!
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#293 Nov 05 2012 at 8:57 AM Rating: Decent
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I'm excited for the race tomorrow. Our US Senate race looks like it should be a runaway with Angus King (I) up 16pts over our current Sec. of State Charlie Summers (R) - 49% vs 33% respectively. The democrat nomine


Is a joke. When Pingree and Michaud decided not to run, you're going pretty deep into the barrel, pardon me, the lobster trap, to find a candidate. Question 1 is the reason to vote in Maine this election. Obama easily wins both districts, King wins, Pingree and Michaud are effectively running unopposed given how weak the GOP candidates are. Although given the sh*tty roads I have to drive on bringing mini Smash to visit his Maine relatives, question 4 is somewhat important to me, too.


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#294 Nov 05 2012 at 9:07 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
Liberals steal babies

Well, we abort all of ours and then steal conservative babies and train them in our liberal arts. Like gypsies!
Alternately, we're all gays and lesbians so we can't make our own babies.

It's not stealing though - it's redistribution.
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It's not stealing though - it's redistribution

Smiley: laugh Smiley: thumbsup
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#296 Nov 05 2012 at 9:22 AM Rating: Decent
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I'll actually be voting in a race that means anything for the first time in a while. Hannah will be coming with me to vote for the first time, she's very excited.
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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a whore. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. @#%^ off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#297 Nov 05 2012 at 9:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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Hannah will be coming with me to vote for the first time, she's very excited.

Did you move to Chicago?
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#298 Nov 05 2012 at 10:44 AM Rating: Decent
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Did you move to Chicago?


Where do you think the Chicago Irish learned to vote the graveyard? No one got off the boat from Dublin in Evanston, boyo.
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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a whore. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. @#%^ off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#299 Nov 05 2012 at 10:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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My Congressional and state races are actually competitive this year so I have a reason to vote beyond waving a "We're #1" flag for Obama. While it's a wispy shadow of the real swing states, I'll be glad to not see another Duckworth, Walsh, Foster, Biggart or Manley commercial for a couple years.
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#300 Nov 05 2012 at 11:53 AM Rating: Decent
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My Congressional and state races are actually competitive this year so I have a reason to vote beyond waving a "We're #1" flag for Obama. While it's a wispy shadow of the real swing states, I'll be glad to not see another Duckworth, Walsh, Foster, Biggart or Manley commercial for a couple years.


We don't have TV, so I miss most of the Warren/Brown ads, but I do hear the compelling Brown argument of "She pretended she was an indian!" on the radio about every 14 seconds. She was a terrible, terrible candidate to start, but she's been coached up pretty effectively. When she wins, she should have a pretty easy re-election in 6 years.
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#301 Nov 05 2012 at 12:23 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:
We don't have TV, so I miss most of the Warren/Brown ads, but I do hear the compelling Brown argument of "She pretended she was an indian!" on the radio about every 14 seconds.
Even on Rhode Island radio stations, I probably hear this ad more than any for RI politicians.
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