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#127 Nov 02 2012 at 7:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Why?

Because digital+paper solutions have more ways of determining error or checking results. I've gone over it with Gbaji enough times so if you want all the details, just search for voting machines and pretend you're Gbaji and we're debating it.
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#128 Nov 02 2012 at 7:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
The GOP must see the writing on the wall because they're already laying the groundwork for a "stolen election" complaint:
I kind of figured the groundwork for that started with all the new voter registration issues they were dealing with.
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#130 Nov 02 2012 at 8:02 AM Rating: Excellent
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Any port in a storm, huh?
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#132 Nov 02 2012 at 8:08 AM Rating: Excellent
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You confuse mirth with snippiness. I suppose you believe Romney is "Expanding the map" as well.
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#133 Nov 02 2012 at 8:12 AM Rating: Excellent
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Katrina really hurt the Dems.
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#134 Nov 02 2012 at 8:13 AM Rating: Good
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Because Republicans would have totally found some private sector way of preventing the hurricane from hitting the NE.
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#135 Nov 02 2012 at 8:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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catwho wrote:
Because Republicans would have totally found some private sector way of preventing the hurricane from hitting the NE.

No, he means that you're less apt to stand in the rain waiting for a bus than you are to get in your own car and drive to the polling place. Which is true, but PA is Democratic enough that pinning your hopes on a 5+% swing due to rain is more a sign of concern than confidence.


Edited, Nov 2nd 2012 9:21am by Jophiel
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#136 Nov 02 2012 at 8:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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Voting should be done lounging in your sweatpants on the couch, accompanied by a cold beer and nice warm blanket. Granted it can be hard to go out and drop your ballot the mailbox afterwards, but you can always do that the next morning when you have to leave for work.
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#137 Nov 02 2012 at 9:40 AM Rating: Excellent
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Rasmussen showing a tie this morning; be interesting to see if it holds up. National polls pulling towards state averages rather than the reverse = bad news for Romney.

Edit: Someone else noted that, for Rasmussen to have a R+2 result for a couple days in their rolling average and then have a one-day switch to a tie, last night's individual results had to be something like O+3.

Edited, Nov 2nd 2012 3:43pm by Jophiel
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#138 Nov 02 2012 at 3:16 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
You can see this when you look at RCP average polling. You'll see about half that show the candidates within a couple point spread (some with Romney up, some with Obama up, but all close), and another half that have Obama up by 5-8%.

Do you even look at the RCP site or do you just mindlessly parrot whatever someone else tells you? RCP has a single poll since Oct 10th in Ohio with Romney up (a Rasmussen poll from a few days ago). Every other poll out of the nine in the main calculation right now has Obama leading. Obama's largest lead in an Ohio poll from the main calculation is +5.


I was speaking about polling in general. Not just Ohio.

someproteinguy wrote:
Whatever happened to dialing up 1,000 people at random and asking them who they were going to vote for? Smiley: confused


They do start out that way. Then they adjust the results by weighting the party affiliation of the respondents. Let me explain how this works.

Let's say that in the exit polls from the 2008 election 40% reported themselves as democrats, 30% reported as republicans, and 30% were "other/independent/whatever". You then conduct a poll of 1000 random people and ask them who they're going to vote for in this election. As part of the poll, you ask people's party identity and 35% say they are democrats, 35% say they are republicans, and 30 say they are "other/whatever" (yes, I'm contriving these numbers for simplicity of the math).

Let's also assume that both groups who identify as republican and democrat vote their candidate and the others break for Romney 20-10. The result of your poll would be 55% Romney, 45% Obama (yeah, I'm ignoring "don't know" answers as well to also make this simple). But since the sample you polled doesn't match the ratio of the last election, we must adjust for that. So we weight each Obama vote and Romney vote according to the ratio of the sample in the poll to the sample in the last election (40/35 versus 35/40 respectively). So the results look like this:

Obama. 45*(40/35) = 51.390
Romney 55*(35/40) = 48.125


And magically, a poll that actually resulted in Romney +10% transforms into Obama +3.2%

Normally, weighting based on the last election is a good method to determine relative party turnout because usually party turnout and affiliation doesn't change that much from one election to the next. But 2008 really was an outlier in terms of Dem turnout and identification (and no one is remotely attempting to claim otherwise). Using those exit polls to weight polling in this election is going to result in significantly wrong results. But polls use the same methodology every time so as to ensure consistency. You can't blame them for this. But you really do have to understand that this means that a significant portion of polls out there are not remotely accurate.

Edited, Nov 2nd 2012 2:20pm by gbaji
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#139 Nov 02 2012 at 3:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Oh. Let me add that they do weighting like this because as a couple people have mentioned, it's very hard to get a good representative sample in political polls. Especially ones that are continually running during the lead up to an election. You just don't have time to get a large enough sample. You've got say 3 days to get a poll in the field and get results posted. You take what you can, and then weight the sample. Nothing wrong with the methodology. It's what you have to do to get polling accomplished and reasonably accurate. It's just that the result is really only "relatively accurate" (relative to other polls taken with the same methodology), not "absolutely accurate" (accurate relative to reality).
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#140 Nov 02 2012 at 4:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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Actually, many polls don't weight. A few do and some are big names (Gallup, for instance) but the idea that they're all weighted is completely erroneous.

That said, it's time to put on your denial blinders so you don't have to see today's polling...
Today's state polls wrote:
Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)
Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)
Today's national polls wrote:
ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Purple Strategies: Obama 47%, Romney 46%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 46%, Romney 46%
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#141 Nov 02 2012 at 5:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Actually, many polls don't weight. A few do and some are big names (Gallup, for instance) but the idea that they're all weighted is completely erroneous.

That said, it's time to put on your denial blinders so you don't have to see today's polling...
Today's state polls wrote:
Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)
Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)
Today's national polls wrote:
ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Purple Strategies: Obama 47%, Romney 46%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 46%, Romney 46%

gbaji wrote:
You guys keep throwing out facts like they mean something.

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#142 Nov 02 2012 at 6:20 PM Rating: Default
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Anyone think that this race will be as close as it's being stated? I want to know the who the next president will be before I go to sleep, not find out 3 days later...

I'm looking at you Florida...
#143 Nov 02 2012 at 8:13 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Actually, many polls don't weight. A few do and some are big names (Gallup, for instance) but the idea that they're all weighted is completely erroneous.


I didn't say that they "all weight". I said that many do. And more importantly some of the biggest names do (Quinnipiac does as well, which is where NYT and CBS get their polling data). In politics, the more frequent the polls, the more likely they are to use weighting to account for the lack of a large and accurate enough polling sample.
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#144gbaji, Posted: Nov 02 2012 at 8:17 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) IMO, it's either going to be really close or it will be a blowout for Romney. Depends on whether the weighting issue really is as significant as it appears. If it isn't, it'll be close. If it is, it wont be. ****, if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states, and pick up several that are currently considered safe for Obama. I don't happen to think it's that huge a factor, but I think it's going to be more of a factor that some think. I suspect that many liberals will be looking at the election results on Tuesday and crying foul because the polls just couldn't have been that far off, so something must have happened.
#145 Nov 02 2012 at 8:36 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
I didn't say that they "all weight". I said that many do.

And many don't.

But what they have in common? Romney losing.
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#146 Nov 02 2012 at 9:03 PM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
Anyone think that this race will be as close as it's being stated? I want to know the who the next president will be before I go to sleep

You'll likely be able to go to bed as soon as they call Ohio.
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#147 Nov 02 2012 at 9:07 PM Rating: Good
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IMO, it's either going to be really close or it will be a blowout for Romney.

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#148 Nov 02 2012 at 9:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Gbaji wrote:
IMO, it's either going to be really close


I've been switching from liberal to conservative media and it seems to me that only Republicans think that it will be REALLY close.

Gbaji wrote:
or it will be a blowout for Romney....... Romney will easily win all the battleground states, and pick up several that are currently considered safe for Obama.


I don't want to stick my foot in my mouth, because anything is possible, but I don't think anyone on any sides believe that to be likely.

Gbaji wrote:

Believe it. The polls really can be that far off.


That tends to happen when you're poling less than 1/2 of 1% of a population.
#149 Nov 02 2012 at 11:03 PM Rating: Good
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If you were given an even bet then smart money would be on Obama, largely due to his present polling lead in Ohio. And if we want to give weight to these predictions I guess I'll throw in a year of premium on Obama to anyone taking up the offer in the next 24 hours. It's not settled by any means, but it's not nail bitingly close either.

edit: To clarify, in case anyone decides to be petty, accepting of the offer implies that should Obama win the 2012 presidential election you'd buy me a year of premium and should he lose, I'd buy you a year of premium, good for 24 hours as of posting this.

Edited, Nov 3rd 2012 12:06am by Allegory
#150 Nov 02 2012 at 11:17 PM Rating: Good
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I've been switching from liberal to conservative media and it seems to me that only Republicans think that it will be REALLY close.


Wouldn't that mean that only Democrats think it will NOT be close?

However if Obama gets Ohio it is pretty much over, Romney would essentially need to run the toss table including Flordia, Virgina (essentially tied), Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa (leaning Blue), North Carolina and Colorado (Leaning Red), and if Obama takes Florida, it is pretty much over. Anyone who thinks this is close is out of touch, it is either going to be a lopside Romney win, or Obama is going to have the win before the West Coast can even cast ballots.

As far as popular vote, ya it might be close, but the electoral system dictates it will either be a blow out in terms of a Romney win, or it will be a blow out in terms of the race to 271 for Obama.

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That tends to happen when you're poling less than 1/2 of 1% of a population.

Thats not how polling works. It is actually a very accurate mathematical extrapolation of opinion. It is remarkably accurate. Why do you think Apple has a new Iphone every year, because shmucks fill out those online surveys and say, ya id buy the new iphone when it comes out with those new features. It is a very powerful piece of information gathering, for marketing, and political discussion. However that is not to say that the numbers can and likely are in some cases manipulated, depending on target audience of course.










Edited, Nov 3rd 2012 1:18am by rdmcandie
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#151 Nov 02 2012 at 11:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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In case you're bored, here's nine different polling aggregate sites and their predictions on who'll win, all on one page.
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