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#77 Sep 25 2012 at 9:59 AM Rating: Decent
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rdmcandie wrote:
This will kill us before Global Warming.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/decline-of-honey-bees-now-a-global-phenomenon-says-united-nations-2237541.html

Where are the billion dollar solutions for an issue we are actually experiencing. That actually has drastic ramifications in the immediate future, the world over.


I'm all for solutions, as long as they don't involve another CGI flick starring Jerry Seinfeld.

Edited, Sep 25th 2012 11:01am by BrownDuck
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You guys keep tossing facts out there like they mean something.


#78 Sep 25 2012 at 10:09 AM Rating: Good
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It did produce this image.
Screenshot
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#79 Sep 25 2012 at 10:16 AM Rating: Default
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To stay on topic.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/#more-68286

Uh-Oh someone made up some numbers.

Quote:
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.


Add a couple degrees here and there, No one will ever know!
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#80 Sep 25 2012 at 10:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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Usual gallery of ACC deniers put together paper, hype it up "pre-publication" and say it's going to be submitted! People who want it to be true seize on this one paper as evidence that all other papers must be false! News at eleven!
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#81 Sep 25 2012 at 10:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:
To stay on topic.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/#more-68286

Uh-Oh someone made up some numbers.

Quote:
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.


Add a couple degrees here and there, No one will ever know!


So I suppose the question would be (even assuming a linear increase in temp.) if the US is 1.5C warmer at the turn of the next century, what does that mean? On one hand, it's not as terrible of a consequence and some of the alarmists would lead you to believe. On the other hand that's still an awful lot of extra energy being added into the system.

Another point being that whether or not it's due to human activity is probably of minimal consequence. Even if you assume it is, it's not like it's really changing people's behaviors a whole lot. The world is getting warmer, estimates range from this study into 4C range or so over the next 100 years or so. Now, what does that mean?

We know the polar region is warming faster. How does that change weather patterns?
How will the extra energy affect storm formation? Cloud formation?
How close should we build to the shoreline? (was that the N. Carolina debate? whatever happened there?)

Edited, Sep 25th 2012 9:43am by someproteinguy
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#82 Sep 25 2012 at 10:31 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Usual gallery of ACC deniers put together paper, hype it up "pre-publication" and say it's going to be submitted! People who want it to be true seize on this one paper as evidence that all other papers must be false! News at eleven!


Wow you sound a bit like Gbaji. It doesn't agree with me so it must be false!
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#83 Sep 25 2012 at 10:35 AM Rating: Excellent
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As opposed to "Hey, here's a blog that wrote a paper I think supports me"?

Smiley: laugh

Funny how, a couple entries later after hyping how they'll be submitting their ground-breaking study, they're talking about how "traditional" peer review doesn't really count. Now THAT'S some Gbaji-level spin for ya.
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#84 Sep 25 2012 at 10:36 AM Rating: Decent
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rdmcandie wrote:
Quote:
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.


Add a couple degrees here and there, No one will ever know!


0.309c != a couple of degrees.

It's great that we're learning from past mistakes and that future observations will be more accurate. Nothing in the article completely invalidates the trend, though. The paper simply suggests that evaluations of sites failed to take into account surface area when adjusting for heat sinks and such. The numbers weren't made up entirely out of thin air...

Quote:
Previous papers all used a distance only rating system from Leroy 1999, to gauge the impact of heat sinks and sources near thermometers. Leroy 2010 shows that method to be effective for siting new stations, such as was done by NCDC adopting Leroy 1999 methods with their Climate Reference Network (CRN) in 2002 but ineffective at retroactive siting evaluation.

Leroy 2010 adds one simple but effective physical metric; surface area of the heat sinks/sources within the thermometer viewshed to quantify the total heat dissipation effect.


In other words, the adjusted readings can be made more accurate by adding an additional metric. Yay, I guess?


Also, as Joph noted, this is little more than a blog article written by the author of a pre-release paper that has yet to be accepted and reviewed by a journal. It's self-promotion at best.

Edited, Sep 25th 2012 11:37am by BrownDuck
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gbaji wrote:
You guys keep tossing facts out there like they mean something.


#85 Sep 25 2012 at 10:40 AM Rating: Excellent
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BrownDuck wrote:
Also, as Joph noted, this is little more than a blog article written by the author of a pre-release paper that has yet to be accepted and reviewed by a journal. It's self-promotion at best.

Yes, but if you don't spend the time and keystrokes refuting it to RDM's satisfaction, it means you were really unable to stand up to its awesome might as it shattered your previous notions about global warming.
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#86 Sep 25 2012 at 10:44 AM Rating: Decent
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someproteinguy wrote:
rdmcandie wrote:
To stay on topic.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/#more-68286

Uh-Oh someone made up some numbers.

Quote:
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.


Add a couple degrees here and there, No one will ever know!


So I suppose the question would be, if the US is 1.5C warmer at the turn of the next century, what does that mean? On one hand, it's not as terrible of a consequence and some of the alarmists would lead you to believe. On the other hand that's still an awful lot of extra energy being added into the system.

Edited, Sep 25th 2012 9:31am by someproteinguy


I agree completely. There is no doubt the world is getting hotter, it is impossible to deny that. I just don't buy into the whole "we caused it" crap that Gore invented to sell a movie. There is no concrete evidence that we are the leading cause in the increase in temperature. I believe it is likely Natural. Heck CO2 has almost no effect on the temperature anyway, it makes up only .038% of total volume in our atmosphere.

Im no scientist but Id wager that the world is just providing for us. More water from the ice caps, more land from the melting of the ice caps. Its not the Earths fault we refuse to invest in desalination processes to turn this new sea water into new fresh water.


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#87 Sep 25 2012 at 10:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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Heck CO2 has almost no effect on the temperature anyway, it makes up only .038% of total volume in our atmosphere.

Ricin only made up .038% of his orange juice! There's no way it could have contributed to his death!
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#88 Sep 25 2012 at 10:47 AM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
As opposed to "Hey, here's a blog that wrote a paper I think supports me"?

Smiley: laugh

Funny how, a couple entries later after hyping how they'll be submitting their ground-breaking study, they're talking about how "traditional" peer review doesn't really count. Now THAT'S some Gbaji-level spin for ya.


Support me? I don't care either way tbh. I have already made up my mind and so have you. I just found it funny that the NOAA doubled up on their numbers so they could make it seem even more scary!

Also how can that be Gbaji level spin? We all know the guy doesn't offer links to anything. Maybe Varus level spin, but then again I didn't call you a filthy liberal even once.


I guess ill add, pot kettle, kettle pot.

Nothing you have linked is fact, it is opinion, the only fact you have produced is the temperature is rising. Yet all the other stuff contained within your links is pure hypothetical opinion. There is no proof that people have caused this at all. That is 100% opinion based.


Edited, Sep 25th 2012 12:54pm by rdmcandie
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#89 Sep 25 2012 at 10:48 AM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:
Also how can that be Gbaji level spin? We all know the guy doesn't offer links to anything.

If I had a nickle for every time Gbaji said "Now, this is just a blog but...", I could probably buy myself a frosty soda.
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#90 Sep 25 2012 at 10:51 AM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:
There is no doubt the world is getting hotter, it is impossible to deny that. I just don't buy into the whole "we caused it" crap that Gore invented to sell a movie. There is no concrete evidence that we are the leading cause in the increase in temperature. I believe it is likely Natural. Heck CO2 has almost no effect on the temperature anyway, it makes up only .038% of total volume in our atmosphere.


The evidence is everywhere. You just refuse to believe it because you're unable to comprehend it.

Quote:
Im no scientist


I don't think anyone could ever possibly mistake you for one. No need for such redundant declarations.
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gbaji wrote:
You guys keep tossing facts out there like they mean something.


#91 Sep 25 2012 at 11:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:

I agree completely. There is no doubt the world is getting hotter, it is impossible to deny that.


Precisely, and if the dam is leaking who cares who put the hole in it? Warn the people downstream first, assign blame later.

rdmcandie wrote:
I just don't buy into the whole "we caused it" crap that Gore invented to sell a movie.


Gore falls more into the alarmist camp, IMO.

Edited, Sep 25th 2012 10:07am by someproteinguy
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#92 Sep 25 2012 at 11:09 AM Rating: Default
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BrownDuck wrote:
rdmcandie wrote:
There is no doubt the world is getting hotter, it is impossible to deny that. I just don't buy into the whole "we caused it" crap that Gore invented to sell a movie. There is no concrete evidence that we are the leading cause in the increase in temperature. I believe it is likely Natural. Heck CO2 has almost no effect on the temperature anyway, it makes up only .038% of total volume in our atmosphere.


The evidence is everywhere. You just refuse to believe it because you're unable to comprehend it.



What evidence? I see a lot of good scientists working on hypothetical causation, and solutions, but to call it evidence is a bit of a stretch at this point. There is no proof that Humans have caused the temperature to rise. Either not yet, or never will be. That is why scientist should be working on this. Which is why I maintain an open opinion on the subject, however there is no evidence that can make me toss my cap into the Global Warmist camp at this point. Just the same as I can not toss my cap into the loonies who dismiss the warming entirely.

The planet is heating up. But we don't know why.



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#93 Sep 25 2012 at 11:10 AM Rating: Good
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BrownDuck wrote:
Quote:
Im no scientist
I don't think anyone could ever possibly mistake you for one. No need for such redundant declarations.
I don't know. In some circles that makes him even more of an expert on the subject matter.
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#94 Sep 25 2012 at 1:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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So rmdcandie, which of these two points do you take issue with?

1. That there is a scientific consensus on the contributions of humans towards climate change? You don't even need a database subscription to show this. The international scientific community has affirmed as such.

2. That you are better qualified to have an opinion on the subject that the majority of the international scientific community? If this is where you take issue, then I can't help you, and no one can help you. If you truly believe you are in greater capacity to have an opinion on this than the entirety of experts in thee field, then I hope gbaji brings you a nice housewarming present because you've clearly moved into the same reality he's in.
#95 Sep 25 2012 at 3:35 PM Rating: Default
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Allegory wrote:
gbaji wrote:
If you could save money doing X, Y, or Z, and you are in a business which desires to make money, then you will do X, Y, and Z whether the government tells you to or not.

Except when the cost is individual and the outcome is shared.


Huh? ROI doesn't normally refer to returns gained by someone (or group of someone's) other than they who initially invested. So that's a particularly bizarre response.

As to the idea of the CEO leaving in 10 years not being willing to invest in something that will take 30 years to generate a return, that's also silly if you understand anything at all about how businesses operate (and how CEO compensation works).
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#96 Sep 25 2012 at 3:39 PM Rating: Default
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Allegory wrote:
So rmdcandie, which of these two points do you take issue with?

1. That there is a scientific consensus on the contributions of humans towards climate change? You don't even need a database subscription to show this. The international scientific community has affirmed as such.


The IPCC is a political organization, not a scientific one. Also "consensus" is not how science is done.

Quote:
2. That you are better qualified to have an opinion on the subject that the majority of the international scientific community?


See my second point above. The problem is that the political value of global warming is so great that any scientist who isn't on board with it gets labeled as a fringe quack and finds he can't gain employment. This then allows folks like you to dismiss their opinions as not in the mainstream and keeps the rest in line.


Is this how science is supposed to work? No. I don't need to know a **** thing about climate science specifically to look at the methodology used by the IPCC and determine that it's politically driven and anti-scientific. The scary thing is how many people who would otherwise be skeptical of exactly this sort of thing if it were a religious ideology pushing it fall right in line when it's an environmental ideology instead.
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#97 Sep 25 2012 at 3:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Also "consensus" is not how science is done.
Well, since I don't need any peer review I hereby state that gbaji is the source of all herpes in the world.

Hey; SCIENCE is fun!!
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#98 Sep 25 2012 at 4:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
I don't need to know a **** thing about climate science specifically...

Makes sense. After all, you don't know anything about polling but tell us all how McCain (now Romney) will obviously win. Or know anything about embryonic stem cell research but told us all how one of the foremost researchers was obviously wrong. Or know anything about *** ed but can tell us all about how any studies regarding it are flawed or...

Isn't it funny how you always know so much better than the so-called "Experts" when it meets your political agenda?

But, yeah... it's all politics making the experts say those things and not at all politics making you say your part Smiley: laugh
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#99 Sep 25 2012 at 4:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Also "consensus" is not how science is done.


Not on a study by study basis, but it's fairly common in general. You get a few of the bigwigs in the field together, they write a review article summarizing some knowledge, it gets cited a bajillion times, then it's pretty much considered fact.

Do people question things that are considered 'fact' afterwards?

Of course, happens all the time. There are always exceptions and things that were overlooked, times move on and theories change based on new data. The only difference between other fields and climate science is every lawn chair scientist and politician feels they have a stake in the process here. Every bump, question, contradiction and exception is over-analyzed ad nauseum.

Frankly, I don't see how they ever get anything done with all that extra attention.
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#100 Sep 25 2012 at 4:18 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Allegory wrote:
So rmdcandie, which of these two points do you take issue with?

1. That there is a scientific consensus on the contributions of humans towards climate change? You don't even need a database subscription to show this. The international scientific community has affirmed as such.


The IPCC is a political organization, not a scientific one. Also "consensus" is not how science is done.

Quote:
2. That you are better qualified to have an opinion on the subject that the majority of the international scientific community?


See my second point above. The problem is that the political value of global warming is so great that any scientist who isn't on board with it gets labeled as a fringe quack and finds he can't gain employment. This then allows folks like you to dismiss their opinions as not in the mainstream and keeps the rest in line.


Is this how science is supposed to work? No. I don't need to know a **** thing about climate science specifically to look at the methodology used by the IPCC and determine that it's politically driven and anti-scientific. The scary thing is how many people who would otherwise be skeptical of exactly this sort of thing if it were a religious ideology pushing it fall right in line when it's an environmental ideology instead.


You're an idiot. I mean this from the most sincere, bottom, darkest depths of my beating heart. You're 100% grade A proof that Humanity is the first species on earth to circumvent the evolution process entirely.
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gbaji wrote:
You guys keep tossing facts out there like they mean something.


#101 Sep 25 2012 at 4:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Also "consensus" is not how science is done.


I was thinking today, one of us has had original research published in peer reviewed journals and one of us was an ignorant fucking clown who amazes all who know him by managing to acquire and retain the skills required to drive a motor vehicle.

Which one are you, again, Bozo?



Edited, Sep 25th 2012 6:33pm by Smasharoo
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