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#1 Aug 09 2012 at 4:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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Not to be confused with OMNIBUS! Really, I just like having a place to drop my tidbits throughout the season without worrying about them being on target for some other thread.

Starting off, Pew Research released a poll the other day showing Obama up 10 points nationally. Everyone on both sides said "Maybe he's up, but he's not THAT up..." Since then, we have two polls out today; a CNN poll showing Obama +7 and a Fox News poll showing him up (gasp!) +9. [Edit: Reuters had him +7 as well early this week]. Now granted Gallup is only at +2 and Rasmussen is laughably off in Weirdsville with Romney +4 (although they actually admitted to an Obama lead the last couple days before doing a sudden one day six point swing) but whatever the Chicago camp is doing is obviously working.

Edited, Aug 9th 2012 6:16pm by Jophiel
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#2 Aug 09 2012 at 4:52 PM Rating: Good
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That's not a big lead, is it?
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#3 Aug 09 2012 at 4:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
That's not a big lead, is it?

Obama won the 2008 election by 7% of the popular vote which translated to winning 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173 (you need 270 to win). That's a very substantial victory.

I wouldn't guess that he'll win by the same margin this election but there's no denying who has the momentum.
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#4 Aug 09 2012 at 5:07 PM Rating: Good
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Oh wait, it's because it's all divided up into those electoral votes of course. I wasn't aware of that since we don't have anything similar here. (Or even a president, at all)
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#5 Aug 09 2012 at 5:32 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
but whatever the Chicago camp is doing is obviously working.



What he's doing is accusing Mitt of giving some guys wife cancer. Link

And Accusing him of being a tax evading felon with no proof. Link

I guess when you can't run on your record you get this.


Hope and Change huh Barry. Stay classy libs.
#6 Aug 09 2012 at 5:38 PM Rating: Good
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ThiefX wrote:
I guess when you can't run on your record you get this.

And polls in the +7 range!
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Hope and Change huh Barry.

The kid who just delivered my $13 pizza asked me if I wanted change from my $20. "No, your walking to the door was so exceptional, I thought you deserved a 35% tip"
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Stay classy libs.

Be crying all the way to the polls Smiley: laugh
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#7 Aug 09 2012 at 5:46 PM Rating: Good
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Obama's been consistently around 330 EV's for the last month. He's got all the major swing states right now, and he could lose Florida and Virginia and still win it. NOT THAT YOU PEOPLE SHOULD BE GETTING COMPLACENT.
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#8 Aug 09 2012 at 6:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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Who you calling "you people"? Is this a racist thing?
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#9 Aug 09 2012 at 6:20 PM Rating: Decent
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trickybeck wrote:

Obama's been consistently around 330 EV's for the last month. He's got all the major swing states right now, and he could lose Florida and Virginia and still win it. NOT THAT YOU PEOPLE SHOULD BE GETTING COMPLACENT.


What do you mean "you people"?

edit: Obviously shouldn't have gotten distracted by thiefx's ridiculous huffington links and left this tab unsent.

Edited, Aug 9th 2012 7:21pm by Guenny
#10 Aug 09 2012 at 7:24 PM Rating: Decent
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Dem's are being significantly oversampled in those polls though. Add in the short term effects of the sorts of attacks the left has been leveling at Obama, and the general distraction from the issues voters actually care most about, and you'd be pretty foolish to believe those results. Polling traditionally swings widely with the week to week news cycles this early in a race. Moreso in this election than most because the Dems are in the rare position of defending an incumbent and his record so incredibly bad that they've settled on an "all negative all the time" strategy (and it doesn't hurt that the media helps to make sure those news cycles work for them).

The numbers will firm up as we get closer to November and people will remember that current unemployment numbers, welfare figures, and GDP growth figures matter a lot more to them than why one person lost their health care 10 years ago, or how many years of tax returns someone makes public.
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#11 Aug 09 2012 at 7:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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Sure, everyone is always oversampling Democrats according to you. Actually, Fox News' polling team is suggesting that there's simply more self identifying Democrats these days based on multiple polling samples.

And week to week polling aggregates haven't swung widely at all. I have no idea where you picked up that feel good theory from.

But then I remember all your "lessons" on polling from 2008 so you just keep whistling part the graveyard Smiley: laugh

Edited, Aug 9th 2012 8:38pm by Jophiel
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#12 Aug 09 2012 at 7:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Sure, everyone is always oversampling Democrats according to you. Actually, Fox News' polling team is suggesting that there's simply more self identifying Democrats these days based on multiple polling samples.

InB4silentmajority
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#13 Aug 09 2012 at 8:45 PM Rating: Excellent
It's not our fault reality has a liberal bias.
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#14 Aug 09 2012 at 9:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Sure, everyone is always oversampling Democrats according to you.


And a whole lot of other people. All those people saying that he can't really be up by that much? Oversampling is the most common explanation they give for why.

Quote:
Actually, Fox News' polling team is suggesting that there's simply more self identifying Democrats these days based on multiple polling samples.


I'd need a cite for that, because it's the first I've heard it. What I've been hearing (from multiple sources) is that general polls showing Dem party identity (at least among voters) is lower this time around. One of the criticisms of polling that's been going on for months now (not just in the last week or so as your OP suggests) is that polling is sampling Democrats at a rate higher than they voted in the last election, and the conventional wisdom is that he had a high point of Dem identity and votes in 2008.

Now it's possible that conventional wisdom is all wrong, but it seems unlikely for Obama to have more support behind him and more people identifying as Democrat this time around given the demonstrably poor job he's done.

I'll point out that an additional angle here is differences between polls of likely voters and polls of the general public. Again, I've been pretty busy and haven't really been paying attention to this issue lately, but the tidbits I've picked up over the last month or so have all pointed in the direction of oversampling, not just of Democrats in general, but significantly with regard to likely Democrat voters.

Quote:
And week to week polling aggregates haven't swung widely at all. I have no idea where you picked up that feel good theory from.


Obama wasn't polling 10 points up a few weeks ago. People then were saying he was polling high and pointing to oversampling as the cause.
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#15 Aug 09 2012 at 10:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'd need a cite for that, because it's the first I've heard it.
Given that you've said you don't really watch fox news, I'm not sure why you'd expect to have heard it.
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#16 Aug 09 2012 at 10:33 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
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Actually, Fox News' polling team is suggesting that there's simply more self identifying Democrats these days based on multiple polling samples.
I'd need a cite for that, because it's the first I've heard it.

Well, there's a surprise.
Fox News wrote:
While Democrats typically hold a slight edge over Republicans nationally in party identification, this attitude shifts based on events and changing sentiment. These days, voters seem to be even more likely to consider themselves Democrats than Republicans. There has been a five percentage-point Democratic advantage, on average, in Fox News polls this year. In this poll, the Democratic edge is nine points. That may or may not be on the high side, although it is similar to other recent national polls conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, which puts Democrats up 11 percentage points and the Pew Research Center, with Democrats up by 13 percent.

I'm skipping on quibbling the rest with you based on how hilariously wrong you were about all the polling throughout the last election.

Think Romney will put California in play this cycle like McCain did in 2008? Smiley: laughSmiley: laughSmiley: laugh
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#17 Aug 10 2012 at 6:23 AM Rating: Excellent
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Oh yeah, that well-known liberal bastion, the Wall Street Journal.

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#18 Aug 10 2012 at 7:06 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
And a whole lot of other people.
I believe it.
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#19 Aug 10 2012 at 2:04 PM Rating: Excellent
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ThiefX wrote:
What he's doing is accusing Mitt of giving some guys wife cancer.

Fun fact! According to the NYT, this ad hasn't been shown as a paid ad once. Everyone who has seen it has seen it either via Youtube or connected to some media story. There's no advertising like free advertising!
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#20 Aug 10 2012 at 5:29 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
ThiefX wrote:
What he's doing is accusing Mitt of giving some guys wife cancer.

Fun fact! According to the NYT, this ad hasn't been shown as a paid ad once. Everyone who has seen it has seen it either via Youtube or connected to some media story. There's no advertising like free advertising!

This happened with a Romney Super PAC add a few months ago, didn't it?
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#21 Aug 10 2012 at 6:28 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Quote:
Actually, Fox News' polling team is suggesting that there's simply more self identifying Democrats these days based on multiple polling samples.
I'd need a cite for that, because it's the first I've heard it.

Well, there's a surprise.
Fox News wrote:
While Democrats typically hold a slight edge over Republicans nationally in party identification, this attitude shifts based on events and changing sentiment. These days, voters seem to be even more likely to consider themselves Democrats than Republicans. There has been a five percentage-point Democratic advantage, on average, in Fox News polls this year. In this poll, the Democratic edge is nine points. That may or may not be on the high side, although it is similar to other recent national polls conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, which puts Democrats up 11 percentage points and the Pew Research Center, with Democrats up by 13 percent.


Don't suppose you have a link to the article, so I don't have to go searching for it myself? I kinda like to see things like who wrote the article and the full context it was written in rather than trust that you picked the one single paragraph that accurately reflects the issue.

Um... This is still simply the sampling of those being polled. It does not tell us if that sample accurately reflects the nation as a whole, much less those who will be voting in the next election. It's kinda circular to respond to a claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats by saying that said ratio is accurate because there were more Democrats in the polls. Actually, it's not "kinda circular", it is. It's not really people as a whole self identifying as Democrats more today, but people in the polls doing so. We can put forth a whole set of speculative ideas as to why that's happening, but as I stated earlier, it would be foolish to think these numbers are at all representative of the voting public.
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#22 Aug 10 2012 at 6:30 PM Rating: Default
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Oh. But on second thought, you go ahead and think this means that Obama is a sure thing. ****. You don't even need to bother voting since he's so far ahead! Yes. Please make sure everyone knows that Obama is so far ahead in the polls that Romney has no chance. Smiley: laugh
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#23 Aug 10 2012 at 6:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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Man, that was hard to find.

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#24 Aug 10 2012 at 7:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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Given that I'm in Illinois, I really don't need to bother voting for president.
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#25 Aug 10 2012 at 8:03 PM Rating: Default
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I'm in the midst of doing a set of upgrades. So I've got a few minutes between steps to read/post, but not a ton of time for searching for a web site which Joph presumably was visiting when he copy/pasted the quote in the first place. I just don't see the point in doing a past of one paragraph from some online source, but then not providing a link to the source.

As to the source. Pretty much what I expected. I mean, we're either to believe that the nation as a whole suddenly increased their affiliation with the Democratic party by like 5% just in the last month (pretty much impossible) *or* the polls are not reflecting the nation as a whole. It shouldn't be hard to noodle out which is the better bet.
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#26 Aug 10 2012 at 8:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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I copied and pasted the first sentence into Google. It came up in less than a second.

Just sayin'.


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