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US Appeals Court Rules Against DOMAFollow

#102 Jun 14 2012 at 9:13 PM Rating: Excellent
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but it's interesting what happens when you compare the differences between polls phrased as "should gay/same-sex couples <some wording about gaining the right to marry or legal recognition of their marriages>" versus polls phrased "should marriage be defined as <some comparison between man-and-woman or allowing same sex couples>".

Well, don't leave us hanging...
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#103 Jun 18 2012 at 4:45 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
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but it's interesting what happens when you compare the differences between polls phrased as "should gay/same-sex couples <some wording about gaining the right to marry or legal recognition of their marriages>" versus polls phrased "should marriage be defined as <some comparison between man-and-woman or allowing same sex couples>".

Well, don't leave us hanging...


Er? Ok. In 2006, Rasmussen did a poll asking the question: "Should marriage be defined in terms of a union between a man and a woman? Or should marriage be defined as a union between any two people including same sex couples?" 68% said is should be defined as a union between a man and a woman and 29% said any two people including same sex couples. . In the same time period, other polls asking questions like "Should marriages between same sex couples be legally recognized?" or "do you oppose/support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?" tended to get numbers more like 40 something in favor 50 something opposed. It certainly appears as though directionality of the question itself affected the outcome of the poll by 10-15 points. All those questions are technically asking the same thing, but when it's presented as a change in legal definition of an existing thing, more people opposed it, while when presented as granting or allowing some group to do something (marry in this case) fewer people opposed and more people supported.


Which is kinda exactly what we should expect. It's human nature to lean in favor of helping people in some way, or not opposing people in some way. No one wants to be viewed as opposing the rights of a group or hurting them.

And yes, before you go off on some tangent, I did just grab a sample set of polls from a lolwiki page. But the samples there were pretty indicative of polls I found scattered around the interwebs, so I'm not worried about it. Feel free to do your own examination of every poll done on the subject for the last 10-15 years if you think the results will be different, but every single poll I've run across which asked the question in terms of what the legal definition of marriage should be differs significantly in outcome to polls which ask whether the group in question should be allowed/denied marriage.


What's also interesting (and which supports some stuff I spoke about earlier) is the polls which do a breakdown of legal marriage versus civil union versus no recognition at all. The totals for marriage and civil union end out being very close (just slightly higher usually) than the "allowed to marry legally" results when that's the only option given. It suggests that when presented with that form of question, people don't want to be mean and deny gay folks something, so they'll tend to pick legal marriage if that's the only option other than denying them that. But when presented with a civil union option, they pick that. Um... Which supports the idea that many of those polls aren't really telling us how many people will vote to expand the definition of marriage to include gay couples. As I mentioned earlier, many who poll with that answer are using it as a substitute for civil unions. They are not given the option in the poll to say what they want, so they pick the closest answer. But when voting, they're not going to grant marriage status to gay couples.


Enough of the civics lesson yet?
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#104 Jun 18 2012 at 4:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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So you have a single poll from six years ago proving how much that phrase matters. Well, that's certainly authoritive.

Thanks for the "civics lesson". I don't feel any compulsion to find more polls because I'm not the one trying to show some big difference.
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#105 Jun 19 2012 at 1:59 AM Rating: Decent
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Woooooosh
Really?

Ummm.... Wooooosh to you then too, I guess.

Between you and BDJ, I can see why Fox's "Half Hour News Hour" was such a big hit Smiley: laugh


Edited, Jun 8th 2012 2:49pm by Jophiel


Excuse the hell out of me for not catching the one time you're making a joke about the evil Republicans, since most of the time you (or somebody else on this board) is bashing them in earnest.
It's ok, this joke totally whooshed me too. And while I seem pathologically unable to make jokes, I usually get them, no matter the brand of humour. Ergo, this was a Jophail.
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#106 Jun 19 2012 at 7:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
And yes, before you go off on some tangent,
That word. I do not believe it means what you think it means.
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#107 Jun 19 2012 at 7:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
So you have a single poll from six years ago proving how much that phrase matters. Well, that's certainly authoritive.


Compared to other polls taken in the same time frame using different language. I then showed a second poll using yet another form of question, and how the results differed in that case as well.

That's surely enough to at least support the claim that how you phrase the question is going to change the results of the poll.

Quote:
Thanks for the "civics lesson". I don't feel any compulsion to find more polls because I'm not the one trying to show some big difference.


Then don't feel any compulsion to insist that polls asking the question(s) which generates the best results are the ones you should always use to base your position on. I just find it more than a bit suspicious when someone is so clearly cherry picking polls to post in support of his position insists that it's not his job to even consider other polls which don't generate the same results. I mean, I get it from your perspective. It's not like you personally go out and examine every poll and then find just the ones with the best results to use. You let others do that for you and then parrot the polls they highlight and then claim it's not worth your time to look at any other data.

I totally get why someone who's already made up their mind about something and doesn't want to hear about anything that might question that decision would do this. It's a pretty crappy way to actually form an opinion in the first place though. And not so great for the whole introspection thing either.
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#108 Jun 19 2012 at 7:40 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
So you have a single poll from six years ago proving how much that phrase matters. Well, that's certainly authoritive.
Compared to other polls taken in the same time frame using different language. I then showed a second poll using yet another form of question, and how the results differed in that case as well.

Right. You have a sample size of one for your preferred wording. As I said, a single poll from six years ago.
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I just find it more than a bit suspicious when someone is so clearly cherry picking polls to post in support of his position

Is it possible to link to polling aggregates and "cherry pick"? Smiley: laugh

Well, you have your sample of one and that's about the thinnest cherry harvest anyone could hope for but it seems like it filled you up!
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#109 Jun 20 2012 at 7:39 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji: Fighting hard to live in the past.
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#110 Jun 22 2012 at 5:52 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji: Fighting hard to live in the past.


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#111 Jun 22 2012 at 2:29 PM Rating: Excellent
The rest of the world to the US on this issue.

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