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The GOP eats itself on fiscal mattersFollow

#102 Aug 04 2011 at 10:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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Kavekk wrote:
What, really?

Am I stuck in some terrible comedy about amnesia?

I didn't expect for him to admit he was wrong, I just didn't think that after Olorinus was talking about manufacturing and Gbaji answered, his next defense would be "Huh? Wha? Wait -- Manufacturing? I'm SO CONFUSED!!!"
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#103 Aug 05 2011 at 3:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:


No. Your answer fails to address why unemployment was around 5% 5 years ago and is around 9% today. The housing bubble doesn't explain this.


Because no one was employed building those houses that people couldn't really afford to buy, amirite? Or employed by the shady mortgage brokers, or in anything in anyway connected to real estate? And all those people spending money they didn't have didn't create more jobs for Starbucks barristas, either, right?

Edited, Aug 5th 2011 2:44pm by Olorinus
#104 Aug 05 2011 at 4:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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Gbaji doesn't understand how one segment of a market can artificially support other sectors. Obviously, the economic crash in Texas in the 70's occurred because every person worked directly for the oil rigs and the crashes in California in the late 1800's were because every single person in the region was a gold miner. The crash in the 2000's only affected those who owned their own internet start-ups.

Edited, Aug 5th 2011 5:26pm by Jophiel
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#105 Aug 05 2011 at 4:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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goatse is responsible for the economic crash.
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#106 Aug 05 2011 at 6:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I'm not even sure what point you think you're making here.

Never mind then. I thought I was talking to someone with a clue.

No, you're right. Losing manufacturing jobs overseas has had no impact at all. I mean, we were talking about it years ago and unemployment was 5% then so nothing's changed! Smiley: laugh


Unless you can somehow show how we lost fewer manufacturing jobs overseas as a result of the housing bubble during the Bush administration, then you bringing up those manufacturing jobs in defense of a statement from you about how the housing bubble somehow caused unemployment figures to be artificially low makes no sense at all. It's a non-sequitur Joph.

I asked about what changed between 2007 and today which caused unemployment to increase from around 5% to around 9%. I pointed out that while there was a capitalization hit for a couple years after the initial collapse of the housing bubble in 2008, there is similar amounts of market capital available today as there was in 2007. The direct effects of the housing bubble collapse have ended (in terms of financial markets), so we should be seeing unemployment dropping. But we're not.

I conclude that the reason unemployment is still high is because the Democrats passed health care reform which will make employment more expensive per person *and* they spent to much money in 2009/2010, resulting in abnormally high debt, which in turn cause fears in the market that taxes will be raised to pay for it, affecting the bottom line of any domestic economic activity they engage in. Obviously, it doesn't help that every liberal pundit and politician is calling for higher taxes on big business and the rich.


To this, you respond that the 5% unemployment under Bush was some sort of mirage created by the housing bubble itself. When I ask for support for this, you respond with a chart showing manufacturing job losses in the US. Surely even you can see that your response doesn't support your claim. I asked why you think that the housing bubble artificially kept unemployment numbers low. You have failed completely to even come close to an answer for that question.


I'm not debating the fact that manufacturing jobs have been lost over the last decade. I'm just unclear how you connect this in any way to the housing bubble.
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#107 Aug 05 2011 at 6:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
you bringing up those manufacturing jobs in defense of a statement from you about how the housing bubble somehow caused unemployment figures to be artificially low makes no sense at all. It's a non-sequitur Joph.

Funny how everyone understands but you. Almost as though, for some strange reason, you're not actually trying Smiley: smile
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#108 Aug 05 2011 at 6:42 PM Rating: Decent
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Iron Chef Olorinus wrote:
gbaji wrote:


No. Your answer fails to address why unemployment was around 5% 5 years ago and is around 9% today. The housing bubble doesn't explain this.


Because no one was employed building those houses that people couldn't really afford to buy, amirite?


That's at least a semi-reasonable argument. Problem is that Joph tied this into some kind of outsourcing of manufacturing jobs in general. Something which has been going on for 30+ years and which kinda obviously doesn't have much directly to do with building houses in the US. His desire to tie into some kind of general liberal argument about evil wealthy capitalists sending American jobs overseas outweighed any desire on his part to make a rational and relevant point.


You'd have a point, except the trend has been going on longer than the housing bubble. If that were even a major element of the total manufacturing job losses, then why did manufacturing jobs fall at about the same rate between 2001 and 2005 as they did between 2008 and 2011? If the housing bubble created a sufficiently large artificially high employment for construction workers to affect the total unemployment figure (by at least 4%!), we should see manufacturing jobs skyrocketing during that period of time. That was the height of the bubble, right?

But once again, we see fact not match theory.

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Or employed by the shady mortgage brokers, or in anything in anyway connected to real estate? And all those people spending money they didn't have didn't create more jobs for Starbucks barristas, either, right?


So trickle down economics works? I thought the left didn't agree with that? I thought you believed that money held by big business, financial institutions, and the wealthy didn't actually help anyone at all? Funny!


What's amazing is that you can't take that next step and realize that threatening to raise taxes on those people can create exactly the negative economic effects we're seeing right now. You see how the money flows, but just can't quite grasp what might make it not flow as much. If a bunch of financial corporations losing money because of a housing bubble collapse can cause Starbucks Barristas to lose their jobs, why can't you see that a bunch of financial corporations losing money because of higher taxes will have the exact same effect?

Edited, Aug 5th 2011 5:46pm by gbaji
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#109 Aug 05 2011 at 6:52 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Problem is that Joph tied this into some kind of outsourcing of manufacturing jobs in general. Something which has been going on for 30+ years and which kinda obviously doesn't have much directly to do with building houses in the US. His desire to tie into some kind of general liberal argument about evil wealthy capitalists sending American jobs overseas outweighed any desire on his part to make a rational and relevant point.

Smiley: laugh lolirony
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#110 Aug 05 2011 at 9:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Irony is a guy who accuses someone else of not seeing how economic factors are interrelated refusing to accept the idea that threatening to raise people's taxes might not be the best way to get them to put their money into things which create jobs in the US.
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#111 Aug 06 2011 at 1:33 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:


You'd have a point, except the trend has been going on longer than the housing bubble. If that were even a major element of the total manufacturing job losses, then why did manufacturing jobs fall at about the same rate between 2001 and 2005 as they did between 2008 and 2011? If the housing bubble created a sufficiently large artificially high employment for construction workers to affect the total unemployment figure (by at least 4%!), we should see manufacturing jobs skyrocketing during that period of time. That was the height of the bubble, right?



The fact that NA has been shedding manufacturing jobs for more than a decade doesn't mean that the loss of manufacturing in NA is not a part of the larger unemployment picture.

If public healthcare is, as you state, the fundamental reason why America is floundering in the face of the housing bubble popping, then why did Canada whether the "recession" so much better than America? We have a nearly 100% public healthcare system. If public healthcare is such an anathema to business, then why doesn't Canada have the same unemployment and debt problems that are plaguing the US?

Do you really think our banks are better? smarter? (insert-adjective-here?)

Cause they aren't.

Are we taxed lower? I bet you that my six-pack cost more than yours.

I grew up in a lumber processing town. When I was a kid there was two sawmills running full bore all the time. During the housing bubble - when people were buying houses in America on a wish and a prayer - guess what? Both the mills in my hometown shut down.

First they sent the fibre to the interior - to a larger sawmill that took logs from all over the province. Now they are sent to China. According to the most recent stats out, raw log exports last year were twice as high as the year before, and are set to double again this year. This is touted as "progress" - as our government is letting logging trucks speed away with a full load of lumber - taxed less than 10 dollars.

A couple years back was the first year that our ministry of forests no longer paid for itself.

Yet massive amounts of logs still leave our forests every year.

We used to have laws that said that where you cut the timber, you processed the timber. If you didn't want to process lumber in Hazelton, you left the forest alone in Hazelton.

We get less money from the forests in taxes every year - we are just about paying companies to take our wood. Yet, there are fewer jobs in forestry, even as the logs leave our shores.

You're nuts if you think that we can race to the bottom hard enough to convince the wealth owners to "invest" in us.

Unless you are advocating that the way to solve america's unemployment problem is to adopt the labour laws China employs.
#112 Aug 06 2011 at 8:59 AM Rating: Good
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I grew up (still live) in a heavy automotive manufacturing town. to date We have lost Sterling, and 3 small feeder plants, (about 2K jobs) we are losing Ford in September with another 3-4 feeder plants (about 3K jobs) we have had manufacturing cut at our 2 Magna plants as GM is still rebounding. All told we lost about (will lose) anywhere from 5-10K jobs, and this is just in the manufacturing sector. This doesn't include the large number of stores that have shut down, the almost vacant mall, all caused by the largely reduced income generated by said factories shutting up shop being lost.

But ya it wasn't the near 10K jobs gone as a result of out sourcing, it was the "free" health care system that caused all of the unemployment.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/1022179--ford-canada-set-to-close-st-thomas-plant-as-election-looms

As for Health Care being an issue, that is surely laughable. Canada barely batted an eye through the recession, while my town/region got raped, the greater picture shows Canada did very well in avoiding it, (large in part due to the heavy oversight on our banks activities) our economy is chugging along, our dollar value is rising to be a competitive option for investment, the markets have been going up, and unemployment going down, and we still have "free" health care, our taxes have been going down, and are likely to drop again.

The largest difference that jumps off the page is defense spending, if you slashed your outrageous defense budget and appropriated those funds to a heath system for everyone, that keeps spending even, and in turn generates more revenues as people have that extra several hundred a month to liquidate directly into the economy through purchasing and investment.

You probably didn't read much of ay of that though, and inb4 if we slash defense spending we can't be world police.


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Are we taxed lower? I bet you that my six-pack cost more than yours.


Its disgusting isn't it. Last week I went to Detroit and got 3 cases of beer for 41$ US, which with the currency exchange rate that I bought my USD at cost me about 39 bucks canadian. 3 cases of beer for the price of 1 case if I bought locally.

Pretty effing sad. and don't even get me started on smokes (in 2000ish they were about 5 bucks a pack, now they are nearly 12.)


Edited, Aug 6th 2011 11:02am by rdmcandie
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#113 Aug 06 2011 at 1:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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But ya it wasn't the near 10K jobs gone as a result of out-sourcing, it was the "free" health care system that caused all of the unemployment.

Be careful, a lot of people can't read sarcasm or intentional irony in text.

Translation for Gbaji et al: It was the out-sourcing that did in the jobs.

Trying to hang on to old technologies in the face of change is insane. Trying to hang onto present jobs if business can get the work done cheaper elsewhere is a losing game too. If you let the private economy change and grow on its own, what you'll find is that it is constantly wanting "new" workers. Developed nations need to forget about hanging onto bulk manufacturing, when the best and brightest want to live there, developing cutting edge content and processes.

White collar jobs are in medical and science research, Blue collar in Lab technicians and cleaners.
White collar writers, directors, actors, musicians, Blue collar copyists, roadies, technicians, data transferrers, forum mediators.
White Collar 5 star energy efficient house and office Architects, Blue collar builders
White collar CHP system designers, Blue Collar builders of CHP systems
White collar programmers, Blue Collar testers.
White collar agriculture inventors, engineers, biologists and chemists, Blue collar installers and shippers.

Where does someone who worked in a car or timber plant for 20 or 30 years fit in here? Obviously through new training or education. Instead of business having to "steal" the highly educated workers from the developing nations, why don't you give people a stable minimal safety net when they are unemployed, and then give them a stable system of free education, to fit them for the new jobs in the economy? Why hang on to old processes when there are newer, smarter, off-the-shelf technologies ready to go? If nations fitted themselves out with CHP systems, they'd get electricity and heating at a 10% discount, drop their energy production pollution by 70%, and have blue collar jobs coming out their ears for a few decades.
#114 Aug 08 2011 at 10:06 AM Rating: Good
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CHP? Do tell.
#115 Aug 08 2011 at 10:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Aripyanfar wrote:
Trying to hang on to old technologies in the face of change is insane. Trying to hang onto present jobs if business can get the work done cheaper elsewhere is a losing game too.
[...]
Where does someone who worked in a car or timber plant for 20 or 30 years fit in here? Obviously through new training or education.

Which was essentially the issue. The manufacturing base (and other sectors really) were crumbling out from under the balloon economy of the 2000's and people refused to acknowledge or believe it. "Outsourcing? Not a problem! Hey, look at this 5% unemployment!". Wages stagnated, underemployment grew and nothing was actually built up for the economy to rest on once the bubble burst. The stock market was lower and unemployment higher when Bush left office than at the depth of the previous recession following the tech bubble and 9/11. There was no "Bush economy" except in the ephemeral sense.

It's ludicrous that people would refuse to believe this when we have the concrete evidence of an economy that was worse off post-bubble than it was in the previous recession -- what was built up in the meantime to absorb some of the crash? What sectors remained firm because they weren't reliant upon the bubble? Any? Any at all? What true growth was there?

The answer is obvious but... hey. Gotta keep those wagons circled.
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#116REDACTED, Posted: Aug 08 2011 at 11:02 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophed wrote;
#117REDACTED, Posted: Aug 08 2011 at 11:02 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) dp
#118 Aug 08 2011 at 11:16 AM Rating: Excellent
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varusword75 wrote:
dp


Edited, Aug 8th 2011 1:03pm by varusword75


Varus's most articulate, informed, and helpful post.
#119 Aug 08 2011 at 11:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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varusword75 wrote:
Joph was right

Smiley: nod
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#120 Aug 08 2011 at 11:48 AM Rating: Good
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I don't know how directly it relates to housing, but manufactured goods accounts for about 30% of the cost of building a new hotel.
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#121 Aug 08 2011 at 3:58 PM Rating: Decent
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Iron Chef Olorinus wrote:
The fact that NA has been shedding manufacturing jobs for more than a decade doesn't mean that the loss of manufacturing in NA is not a part of the larger unemployment picture.


A part of? Absolutely. However, I think a point that some of you are missing is that attempting to continue to hold on to older jobs is a mistake. We lose jobs all the time for any of a number of reasons. We need to make sure that new job creation accounts for those lost jobs. That's how you keep unemployment low. Job losses fluxuate, and certainly do increase during recessions, but the job losses in manufacturing have been steady for the last 30 years. There's nothing particularly new about this. Certainly not "within the last 5 years" new.

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If public healthcare is, as you state, the fundamental reason why America is floundering in the face of the housing bubble popping...


I didn't state that. I said it was one of the major factors. Also, I didn't say that "public health care" in principle was, but that the specific form of mandated health coverage levels via insurance mechanism which the latest round of health care reform foisted on the US public that was.

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...then why did Canada whether the "recession" so much better than America? We have a nearly 100% public healthcare system. If public healthcare is such an anathema to business, then why doesn't Canada have the same unemployment and debt problems that are plaguing the US?



Because it's not about static conditions, but about changes. Canada didn't choose to change its health care system right in the middle of the global recession. You're forgetting that we're talking about relative effects. Canada already had that public health care system. Whatever economic adjustments it required have already occurred. Thus, they felt no *new* effects. Why would they? As I said above, they didn't change their system during this time period.

The US did. Right at a time when job losses are increasing due to recession, when you need to encourage new job creation to reverse the rising unemployment trend, the Democrats choose to pass legislation which effectively increased the cost of hiring people. Regardless of what you think about government's role in health care, it was incredibly bad timing to do so right then.


The reality is that the Democrats realized that they had a narrow window of time in which to pass the social legislation they wanted and made a decision to ignore the fact that the US was in the midst of an economic recession and passed them anyway. It was a timing issue. They knew there would be negative economic effects arising from those social agenda items. If the economy had been in good shape at the time, perhaps they could have managed these things without creating the disaster we're in right now. But it wasn't in good shape. They knew it wasn't in good shape. But they chose their social agenda over economic stability.


What's funny is that I'm not even saying they were wrong to do this. From their perspective, at least. To them, the social stuff is more important. The economy will eventually recover, but the social changes they've passed will likely stick with us for decades to come. For a progressive movement, that's what matters. The short term isn't important. If I were a liberal, I'd likely have chosen to do the exact same thing. But I do think it's important for the rest of us to acknowledge that this is what they did. They made that choice. They made it knowing it would cause significant near term economic problems. Blaming this on the GOP because they opposed the spending is I suppose the rhetoric the left has to at least try. But if you're all honest with yourselves, you know that it's just not true.
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#122 Aug 08 2011 at 4:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
We need to make sure that new job creation accounts for those lost jobs.

Even better when it's not job creation wholly dependent upon a bubble economy you refuse to admit existed as such.
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#123 Aug 08 2011 at 6:11 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
We need to make sure that new job creation accounts for those lost jobs.

Even better when it's not job creation wholly dependent upon a bubble economy you refuse to admit existed as such.


You've still failed to provide any evidence or even rational argument to support your claim that unemployment was somehow artificially lower than it should have been because of the housing bubble. And not even from the increased earnings of the financial institutions who invested in said bubble (which would at least make some sense), but somehow some other magical fairy-like effect that created employment but didn't involve those mean rich investment banks at all!


How about you start by at least making an attempt to support your claim first?
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#124 Aug 08 2011 at 6:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
You've still failed to provide any evidence or even rational argument to support your claim that unemployment was somehow artificially lower than it should have been because of the housing bubble.

You mean that you've accepted. No one else is having trouble with this and if you think I'm going to spend a bunch of time trying to convince someone so completely invested in defending Bush at all costs... hehehe

Nothing in it for me, sport. Try again with someone else. Funny thing though... no one else is going to ask the same question.
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#125 Aug 08 2011 at 7:04 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
You've still failed to provide any evidence or even rational argument to support your claim that unemployment was somehow artificially lower than it should have been because of the housing bubble.

You mean that you've accepted.


You mean your vague claim that the housing bubble created profits which in turn were invested into other jobs? The one I completely debunked in like my very first post on this subject? What part of me pointing out that the markets (excepting very recent events since the start of this thread) have more or less fully recovered did you miss? What part of us both presumably agreeing that the reason for our unemployment rate is because businesses aren't investing in ways which create jobs?


It's not because the money isn't there. It's because those with the money don't view employing people to be as profitable as they did just 5 years ago. And there is absolutely no possible logical way you can blame that on the housing bubble. It's nonsensical.


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No one else is having trouble with this and if you think I'm going to spend a bunch of time trying to convince someone so completely invested in defending Bush at all costs... hehehe

Nothing in it for me, sport. Try again with someone else. Funny thing though... no one else is going to ask the same question.



Funny how you fall back on this when you know you've lost the argument. Oh... But no one else thinks this matters! And no one else makes the same arguments you make! Never mind that I can't counter your arguments, let me just toss out my appeal to popularity fallacy and make it all go away. Yup. Predictable as hell.
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#126 Aug 08 2011 at 8:11 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Funny how you fall back on this when you know you've lost the argument.

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Still pretending they're not related? Smiley: laugh
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Never mind that I can't counter your arguments

Sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "NO, IT DIDN'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT AND YOU CAN'T PROVE IT TO ME!!!" isn't an "argument".
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