SERVEFollow

I'll address this within context below.



Except, for the point that I'm trying to argue, that's exactly what you're doing. I'll explain further below.



How is it that you STILL don't understand what I'm looking for? I'm not looking for a percentage approximation of the people who support SSM or not. I want to know EXACTLY, do majority of the U.S. support SSM or not? There is only ONE answer. Either the majority of the U.S supports something or the majority doesn't. So, if YOUR polls are swaying backwards and forwards, regardless of the percentage of error (especially > 5%),YOUR polls aren't accurate enough to give the actual answer that I'm looking for.

Besides, since there is always a margin of error, who's to say which side that error is in favor of with polls that close?



That's your problem. You're painting this picture if I'm arguing against the science of polling when I'm not. I'm arguing against the application of polls. If the question was "Do you think rape is positive?". I assure you that majority of the nation will say "no". Given that, 1,000 people is probably a sufficient amount of people to find out what the majority of the U.S. believes in that question. This would be supported by consistent polls showing the majority in favor of "no".

On the other hand, you even admitted that this particular issue is very divided and the percentages are very close. Given that, if you want to find EXACTLY what the majority of the U.S. thinks about such a divided concept, 1,000 out of 300,000,000 is not a sufficient number. You'll end up with varying polls as proven in our history of the exact poll.

You can argue otherwise till your face turns blue, but your polls proves you wrong. I have no doubt that the percentages represented in these polls *can* be accurate of how the nation is divided, but which one tips in who's favor? I'm arguing the latter while you're stuck on the former.

I couldn't care any less if the percentage is divided 51% to 47%, I want to know which one is which. Your polls can not and will not show that if they are constantly swaying back and forth.







Read above... You've spent all of this time and still fail to grasp the simple concept of what I'm actually looking for.

I'm not arguing against probability theory, I'm arguing against your application of probability theory.

It's not impossible, because I'm not wanting to know the exact number of people for each side, just exactly which side is dominate. You can guestimate that, but you can't with a 1000 people, given the closeness of the two sides.



Read above, polls with varying results CAN NOT answer the question that I'm looking forward. If all of the results were consistent in one way in various given polls, then it would be sufficient. You admitted that they aren't, so they are of no use to my question.



Read my first response in this post. You're still confused on what I'm looking for. I'm not looking for an exact number of people, but exactly what the answer is. I don't care if 178,983,398 people are against SSM and 123,454,453 people are for it. I just want to know which side has more people. While there isn't a perfect way of determining that, I assure you it isn't looking at 1,000 random people.

Maybe I worded myself wrong earlier. I didn't mean to literally ask "what the majority believes in" on a poll. I'm simply referring to asking the question and as a result to see what the majority believes in. If the results are consistent, then 1000 people may very well be sufficient. On the other hand, if it varies to the point where one side is above the other side, then it probably isn't sufficient.



I presented a poll that was taken last month that said otherwise. Also, according to wiki (the same source you provided), that has not been the trend in the last 6 years. If you "google" it, varying sites have all said that this was the FIRST time a poll has favored SSM as the majority.

Here's the thing, people's opinions just don't change in general. What happens is, generations have different opinions and as older people pass away and younger people grow older in a "newer" society, the general opinions change. You act as if 270 people just changed their minds from last month, which caused the overall percentage to tip. No, that's not what happened. Those 270 people had the same beliefs last month as well, they just weren't polled. A different group of people answer the question.

Besides, you have yet answer my question. If there exist margins of errors and small varying answers, tipping the polls one way or the other, how are you able to determine what the U.S. supports as a whole? How are you able to say that the U.S supports SSM or not?



Uhhh... you should probably go back and reread the comment that I was referring to. I was referring to your comment where you specifically said that size doesn't matter (That's what she said). I was telling you that you can't say that the sample size doesn't matter in one scenario (1,000) but then the sample size does matter in another scenario (10). You said yourself that 1,000 was sufficient. How can it be "sufficient" if it is irrelevant? Obviously size matters.

Your only counter to that is to argue that the sample size is irrelevant and I'm sure that you don't believe that.

That's not stupid, because that's exactly what people argue in debates. They say stuff like "Most of America believes in ....." or "Most of America don't support ....". It's exactly what the polls are meant to find. The problem is, what they reveal is solely based on how you use them.

Garbage in, Garbage out.



I have never, ever said that polling wasn't the best. It's how you use them. 1000 random people out of 300,000,000 on a closely divided issue is not the best. Deal with it.



That's WTF I said.



Sooooo.. how can you tell what the U.S. majority believes in as a whole with the polls being so close with margins of error? I'm waiting...



Dude, I told you where it was it. My quote that you presented was my RESPONSE to the very quote in question. You're the one who said it. Did you go up one post? It's probably there. It's when you were making the argument that it's about doing the polls correctly. If a poll is biased, then it's wrong. From "my understanding", you said shortly after, it doesn't matter how many people, but how the polls are being conducted. That's when I countered to say that you can't say size doesn't matter with 1000 but it does matter with 10.

ITT: Alma wants every single person in the country polled. GG.

Better poll 'em every day, in case they change their minds.

Once again, I don't need a poll to tell me that the people are divided on the issue, just like I don't need a poll to tell me that people think rape is bad. That isn't my focus, once again, I'm looking to find out EXACTLY which side is above the other. If all your polls can do is tell me that the people are divided, then they are no good to me.



BECAUSE THAT'S MY WHOLE FREAKIN MOTIVE.. I want to know what the majority is. People like you and Belkira, will source these polls to say "The U.S. supports SSM" when in fact, that could very well be false.

That's how this whole thing started. I said that majority of the people don't support SSM and she responded with poll. That's how these polls are used in debates.

Besides, you haven't answered, how do you know it is slightly in favor of SSM and not the other way around? You admit that it's practically split, there is margin of error and you also admit that you could find 500+ people out of a 1000 person survey that DON'T support SSM, how can you say it's in favor of SSM? You can't! You're simply saying it is because that's what you want it to say.

Which was my initial argument. People like you will just continuously re-poll until it says something else. It wouldn't surprise me if they did that phone survey a couple of times first and disregarded all of the results that concluded otherwise and only published the one that was in favor of SSM.



You're not flipping this around on me. You said it. I told you exactly where to find it, which isn't that hard since it was right above the text you quoted me from. If you don't want to address the issue, then fine.



My counter to that was how did you assume that the poll was biased? It appears that you were claiming any poll opposing SSM as "biased".

I stated how random polls work. Random polls don't take in consideration Democrats vs Republicans or any other criteria, it's completely UNBIASED. Doing so is good in the sense of not being biased, but it also opens the door for the strong possibility of an unfair representation. If your poll randomly selects more Democrats than Republicans, then your poll will more than likely favor SSM. If your random poll selects more Republicans than Democrats, then your poll will more than likely not favor SSM. Being random is unbiased, but it isn't a fair representation of the U.S. MATHEMATICALLY speaking, in order to guarantee more coverage in a RANDOM poll, you need larger numbers.



We're going in circles. You're right, I didn't read it, because I'm not denying that it supports the WLLN. What I'm denying is that it's enough people to answer the question that I'm wanting to know, "Do majority of the U.S. support SSM or not?". Once again, if the question was "Do you support rape", I'm sure every 1000 person poll would probably accurately represent the U.S. population. Given that this is a nearly split opinion, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO KNOW THE ACTUAL ANSWER. That is proven by contradicting polls.

You keep trying to paint this picture that I'm arguing against statistics, when I'm arguing against the application of statistics.











Wow, looky there.. Funny how reading works.

Yes, I'm not denying that opinions change. My opinions on some hot topics haven't always been the same either. At the same time, if your "opinion" is changing to the point where you flip flop on something like abortion every week, then that probably isn't "learning". I'm sure that's an internal problem within yourself.

If I am remembering my history correctly, one side flip-flops and the other side learns...can't remember which is which :P

I agree. My point is that you SHOULDN'T see much of a difference within one month unless there was some type of a significant event. The largest differences SHOULD occur throughout time. Of course that is compromised of smaller changes noted in the other polls.

Apathy?

If my ridiculing offends you, just let me know.. I'll hold back.

Pity and bewilderment for me.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 9:30am by Eske