SERVEFollow

Uhh.. nice try, either answer the question or admit that you're wrong.

Edited, Apr 24th 2011 10:30pm by Almalieque

I'm asking you a simple question. You are trying to jump ahead and make false connections. Just answer the questions. I wasn't even trying to make that connection.

Edit: if it makes you feel better, replace "one at a time" with "how many marbles at once will you have to get".. either way, it's the same conclusion.

Edited, Apr 24th 2011 10:38pm by Almalieque

That's the answer to the first question. What about the second question?

"What is the minimum amount of draws that you would have to do in order to guarantee to see which color is the majority every time?"

Key words are "guarantee every time". 5 is the minimum if the first 5 marbles (at once, or individually) are the same color.

You should have asked that question first.

That means that out of the 10 marbles, it isn't an even split of 5 red marbles and 5 blue marbles. That makes 5 the absolute least amount draws necessary, because if you draw 5 blue marbles first, you already know that there aren't 5 red marbles, so you can stop.

Now please answer the second question.

Just hold your horses.. I'm getting there.

It's the condition of the example.




I had more questions, but since you've been so cooperative, I'll just get to the point from here. The reason why the scenario couldn't be a "5/5" split, because I think it's safe to say that with the tens of millions of possible people to poll, it is very unlikely that it would be a dead tie. It will favor one way or the other even if by only a few hundred people.

If 8 out of 10 of your marbles are blue, then the probability without replacements of choosing a blue marble is greater than choosing a red marble. That means, the likelihood of you picking up 5 blue marbles (one by one or all at once) before picking a red marble is significant.

On the other hand, if you only have 6 blue marbles and 4 red marbles then the above probability decreases. The likelihood of you picking up 5 blue marbles (one by one or all at once) before picking a red marble is much less. In this scenario, you might end up having to get 9 marbles before determining which one is greater.

In the first scenario, the percentages were so heavy in one way, that only a small percentage of the marbles was necessary to show which one was greater. This correlates to my example on a poll of "Do you support rape?". That answer is probably so heavy in one direction, that the absolute least amount of people necessary to conduct a poll is probably more than enough to determine how the majority of the people feels about rape.

In the other scenario, the percentages of marbles were closer together. Because of this, the probability of determining the majority in the absolute least amount of marbles (50% of the marbles) decreased. So, while it was still statistically possible, only a 90% sample absolutely guaranteed you a majority. While it may not be 90%, the likelihood of it being anywhere from 60-80% is higher than 50% as in the above example. This correlates to my argument that the closer the percentages are, the larger the sample needs to be in order to guarantee a determination of the majority.

So, while 1,000 people might statistically be the absolute least amount of people necessary to conduct a poll to represent the nation, the more divided the percentages are, the least likely you are able to demonstrate the majority with the absolute least amount to poll.

P.S. I read over the "WLLN" and I didn't see any contradiction. It actually appears to me that you really don't grasp the concept of WLLN and you're just throwing it around as fictional support to seem more intellectual on the topic than what you really are.

So, basically you refuse to accept reality. That's fine. As long as you realize it. It's not "5 marbles", it's "50% of the population". I refuse to believe that you fail to see the comparison.



Hmmm, given that you made a false connection, I would say I was right.

??? What are you talking about?

I demonstrated that when the two percentages are closer together, the less likely you are able to see the majority with the absolute least percentage sample necessary and the further apart the percentages are from each other, the more likely you are able to see the majority with the absolute least percentage sample necessary.

What exactly is your counter? I'm debating percentages, not marbles. The marbles was an example of the percentages because you were unable to grasp the concept earlier.

double

Edited, Apr 24th 2011 11:22pm by bsphil

Sure. You're right, I'm wrong.Now go away.

If this is true, I can't imagine you have the social life to actually have these debates outside of these forums.

Even if that's true, its ok, because the civilian world pays for it.

Essentially, you're a company and civilians are your shareholders. If enough shareholders vote a certain way, you have an obligation to follow through with it. Or, in truth, the US is a Democracy and every branch of the government, including the military, is required to adhere to whatever rules the populace places upon it. Don't like the course? sway the public opinion, but otherwise, you must do as they demand.

Or, do what President Obama did with DADT and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The reality is, the general public as a whole is ignorant in issues. I'm not excluding myself, but it's the truth. What the people want isn't always the best for the people, so the government will find a way to "please" the people while still doing what they believe is necessary.

Not only is the general public ignorant on issues, but they are also fickle. I doubt any government can function properly actively addressing everyone's concerns as they want to believe the government is.