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#227 Apr 20 2011 at 1:15 PM Rating: Good
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Considering the government is paying for it, its the least I could do.
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#228 Apr 20 2011 at 1:19 PM Rating: Default
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bsphil wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_sampling#Quota_sampling wrote:
In quota sampling, the population is first segmented into mutually exclusive sub-groups, just as in stratified sampling. Then judgment is used to select the subjects or units from each segment based on a specified proportion. For example, an interviewer may be told to sample 200 females and 300 males between the age of 45 and 60.

It is this second step which makes the technique one of non-probability sampling. In quota sampling the selection of the sample is non-random. For example interviewers might be tempted to interview those who look most helpful. The problem is that these samples may be biased because not everyone gets a chance of selection. This random element is its greatest weakness and quota versus probability has been a matter of controversy for many years.
Nice try.


You're right nice try.

It's a freaking trade off. Random polls are unbiased but may not have a fair representation. Quota Sampling maybe biased, but they have a better representation of the population. This is why it's been in discussion for many years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_sampling#Quota_sampling wrote:
In a simple random sample ('SRS') of a given size, all such subsets of the frame are given an equal probability. Each element of the frame thus has an equal probability of selection: the frame is not subdivided or partitioned. Furthermore, any given pair of elements has the same chance of selection as any other such pair (and similarly for triples, and so on). This minimises bias and simplifies analysis of results. In particular, the variance between individual results within the sample is a good indicator of variance in the overall population, which makes it relatively easy to estimate the accuracy of results.

However, SRS can be vulnerable to sampling error because the randomness of the selection may result in a sample that doesn't reflect the makeup of the population. For instance, a simple random sample of ten people from a given country will on average produce five men and five women, but any given trial is likely to overrepresent one sex and underrepresent the other. Systematic and stratified techniques, discussed below, attempt to overcome this problem by using information about the population to choose a more representative sample.

SRS may also be cumbersome and tedious when sampling from an unusually large target population. In some cases, investigators are interested in research questions specific to subgroups of the population. For example, researchers might be interested in examining whether cognitive ability as a predictor of job performance is equally applicable across racial groups. SRS cannot accommodate the needs of researchers in this situation because it does not provide subsamples of the population. Stratified sampling, which is discussed below, addresses this weakness of SRS.


If you were to read the page on Statistical sampling, you'll see that there are VARIOUS ways of sampling and they exist because there are pros and cons for each one.

Your argument is that you DON'T do that and you're wrong. I didn't argue that there weren't any drawbacks. So unless you're arguing that random polls are perfect (which you already admitted that they weren't), you have nothing to respond with other than "I'm wrong".


Bsphil wrote:
I know. Once again, looking only for a majority is stupid, that's why I keep saying you're stupid for focusing so intently on the less important info.


That's only if you're claiming that there is a majority. If you're not going to claim that the majority of the U.S. believes one way or the other, then it doesn't matter. That's not the scenario. You claimed that it was fairly split with a slight favor towards SSM. Belkira argued that majority of the U.S. supports SSM. So, how can you use the "majority", but not want to know what the majority is? So, it's ok just to say "it's the majority" without actually knowing if it's true or not? Interesting..


Bsphil wrote:
Whatever you need to tell yourself to sleep at night, I guess.


I don't have to say anything. Your comedic behavior is all I need to laugh myself to sleep.

It must feel real bad to get pwned by an idiot. I know it hurts...




#229 Apr 20 2011 at 1:36 PM Rating: Good
Eske Esquire wrote:
bsphil wrote:
If (god forbid) Alma ever hits 10k posts, I request his title be:

Not intended to be a factual statement


My vote still goes to Alma VI: Return of the Jester

Referencing this gem.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 2:45pm by Eske


Nah, "Obtuse" is still the best.
#230 Apr 20 2011 at 1:56 PM Rating: Good
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Belkira wrote:
Eske Esquire wrote:
bsphil wrote:
If (god forbid) Alma ever hits 10k posts, I request his title be:

Not intended to be a factual statement


My vote still goes to Alma VI: Return of the Jester

Referencing this gem.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 2:45pm by Eske


Nah, "Obtuse" is still the best.


It's a fitting descriptor, but where's the amusement?

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 3:57pm by Eske
#231 Apr 20 2011 at 2:02 PM Rating: Good
Eske Esquire wrote:
Belkira wrote:
Eske Esquire wrote:
bsphil wrote:
If (god forbid) Alma ever hits 10k posts, I request his title be:

Not intended to be a factual statement


My vote still goes to Alma VI: Return of the Jester

Referencing this gem.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 2:45pm by Eske


Nah, "Obtuse" is still the best.


It's a fitting descriptor, but where's the amusement?

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 3:57pm by Eske


I thought laughing at Alma was the amusment.
#232 Apr 20 2011 at 2:17 PM Rating: Good
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Belkira wrote:
I thought laughing at Alma was the amusment.


It is. It's just that there isn't much sport in simply calling him an idiot, straight up. That's about as funny as reciting simple math problems, or other such well-accepted facts.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 4:18pm by Eske
#233 Apr 20 2011 at 2:21 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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Almalieque wrote:
You claimed that it was fairly split with a slight favor towards SSM.
Yup.

Almalieque wrote:
So, how can you use the "majority", but not want to know what the majority is? So, it's ok just to say "it's the majority" without actually knowing if it's true or not?
Because oddly enough, the public opinion poll contains a breakdown of the public's opinions. If every poll showed similar results except one, then you have an outlier. To go a few pages back to a point you completely missed, that's why there are many polling companies taking many polls.

Almalieque wrote:
It must feel real bad to get pwned by an idiot.
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...



Edited, Apr 20th 2011 3:26pm by bsphil
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#234 Apr 20 2011 at 3:05 PM Rating: Default
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Bsphil wrote:
Because oddly enough, the public opinion poll contains a breakdown of the public's opinions. If every poll showed similar results except one, then you have an outlier. To go a few pages back to a point you completely missed, that's why there are many polling companies taking many polls.


That's a lot of words just to say that you're wrong..

Bsphil wrote:
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...


I guess you're not understanding the irony in that sentence.. it's ok...
#235 Apr 20 2011 at 3:09 PM Rating: Good
Almalieque wrote:
Bsphil wrote:
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...


I guess you're not understanding the irony in that sentence.. it's ok...


I guess you don't really know the defintion of irony, and get it confused with sarcasm. It's ok.
#236 Apr 20 2011 at 3:34 PM Rating: Good
Saracsm is a form of irony.
#237 Apr 20 2011 at 3:34 PM Rating: Default
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Belkira wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Bsphil wrote:
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...


I guess you're not understanding the irony in that sentence.. it's ok...


I guess you don't really know the defintion of irony, and get it confused with sarcasm. It's ok.


Nope..I actually made sure of it before posting as I knew someone would mention that. Thanks for playing though :(
#238 Apr 20 2011 at 3:49 PM Rating: Good
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Belkira wrote:


I guess you don't really know the defintion of irony, and get it confused with sarcasm. It's ok.



Almas middle name is obviously Baldrick.

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#239 Apr 20 2011 at 4:12 PM Rating: Good
Almalieque wrote:
Belkira wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Bsphil wrote:
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...


I guess you're not understanding the irony in that sentence.. it's ok...


I guess you don't really know the defintion of irony, and get it confused with sarcasm. It's ok.


Nope..I actually made sure of it before posting as I knew someone would mention that. Thanks for playing though :(


So, what you actually meant was you didn't "pwn" him, I suppose?
#240 Apr 20 2011 at 4:27 PM Rating: Default
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Belkira wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Belkira wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
Bsphil wrote:
Hey, at least you're admitting that you are an idiot. The first step is admitting you have a problem...


I guess you're not understanding the irony in that sentence.. it's ok...


I guess you don't really know the defintion of irony, and get it confused with sarcasm. It's ok.


Nope..I actually made sure of it before posting as I knew someone would mention that. Thanks for playing though :(


So, what you actually meant was you didn't "pwn" him, I suppose?


?

Edit: You know what, never mind.. I fell for this trick before. You all stick together, so when I take one down, the other comes in and "speaks for the other person" in attempt to turn things around. I'll let him speak for himself.

Edited, Apr 21st 2011 1:06am by Almalieque
#241 Apr 20 2011 at 4:30 PM Rating: Good
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Phew, I just got back from polling all Americans and here are the results:

99.9999997% said 1000 people were enough
0.0000003% said 1000 people were not enough
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#242 Apr 20 2011 at 5:11 PM Rating: Default
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Ailitardif, Star Breaker wrote:
Phew, I just got back from polling all Americans and here are the results:

99.9999997% said 1000 people were enough
0.0000003% said 1000 people were not enough


Well, you should try not polling stupid people next time. I've provided evidence that the various sampling have pros and cons, where 1,000 may not represent the entire population depending on the sampling and what you're looking for.
#243 Apr 20 2011 at 5:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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"Take one down"?

Oh hell, that's the cutest thing! I literally laughed when I read that.
#244 Apr 20 2011 at 5:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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Whoa, wait - premium??

Ok, who's my secret Santa? I want to thank you!
#245 Apr 20 2011 at 5:32 PM Rating: Good
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Almalieque wrote:


Well, you should try not polling stupid people next time.


I didn't have time to leave the country :P

Almalieque wrote:
I've provided evidence that the various sampling have pros and cons, where 1,000 may not represent the entire population depending on the sampling and what you're looking for.


1000 people is an acceptable number of people. The problem seems to be in how the question is worded. If I ask 1000 people a question, then the answers to that particular is statistically significant.

Example:

Do you support gay marriage (if you answer no, I will shoot you)?

- Probably 100% will say yes (the question is flawed, not the results). This means that in regards to this particular question, 100% of Americans support SSM.

If you ask "do you support SSM?", the results will reflect the tone in America. In this particular case the poll showed 51% support it. The margin of error was 3.5%, which means somewhere between 47.5% and 54.5% support it.

See what I'm saying? The number of people (1000) is statistically significant, but only for the particular question asked.

Edited, Apr 20th 2011 7:36pm by Ailitardif
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#246 Apr 20 2011 at 5:39 PM Rating: Default
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Assassin Nadenu wrote:
"Take one down"?

Oh hell, that's the cutest thing! I literally laughed when I read that.


Of course. "You all" are like this huge mob who sticks together to no end. If you agree with me, you stay silent. The second I say something that you may disagree with, then you comment. If someone says something wrong, they aren't challenged, it's let go. When two people contradict each other, they argue through me. Then at the end, "I'm the idiot", even though I share the same opinion as others...It's quite hilarious..
#247 Apr 20 2011 at 5:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Ailitardif, Star Breaker wrote:
If I am remembering my history correctly, one side flip-flops and the other side learns...can't remember which is which :P


MY side learns. YOUR side flip-flops.

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#248 Apr 20 2011 at 5:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
If you agree with me, you stay silent.


Whatever you say, Skippy.
#249 Apr 20 2011 at 5:43 PM Rating: Good
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Almalieque wrote:
If you agree with me, you stay silent.
How about the ones of us that choose not to argue because they know its less productive to argue with an officer than it is a wall?
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#250 Apr 20 2011 at 5:44 PM Rating: Default
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Aili wrote:
See what I'm saying? The number of people (1000) is statistically significant, but only for the particular question asked.

That's what I've been arguing this entire time. You don't need 1000 people to know how people feel about rape, but if you want to know how the majority feels about something that is so evenly split, you're going to need more than 1,000 people, especially if it's truly random.
#251 Apr 20 2011 at 5:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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Assassin Nadenu wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
If you agree with me, you stay silent.


Whatever you say, Skippy.


No, really, they do. Out of embarrassment, or maybe waiting for the rainbow-scented bees to dissipate.

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