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Cheney and CIA LeakFollow

#27 Oct 20 2005 at 5:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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Darkknight wrote:
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I'll admit that this is just a theory. But it's the only one that fits all the information we have.


Gbaji--
You can add that theory to your web page with the moon landings hoax and the 'it wasn't a *plane* that hit the pentagon' stories.

--DK


Sigh. Interesting that you couldn't actually refute a single point I made.

Let me simplify it for you:

Valarie Plame was a NOC. That means that her identity as an employee of the CIA is a matter of national security and is not supposed to be revealed to anyone not codeword cleared (who'll presumably keep their mouth shut).


She walked into a non-classified meeting with non-CIA members (state department), wearing a CIA badge and identified herself as Valerie Plame.

How the hell is that *not* outting herself? This was 18 months *before* Novak wrote his article. This was 18 months *before* the memo sent by the State Department to AF1. This was 18 months *before* all the phone conversations between Rove/Libby and various reporters.

All that other stuff is after effects from her own actions. The violation of law on this issue is really clear. The person who knows the identity of a NOC and reveals that person's employment status with the CIA to someone who is not cleared for that information has violated national security. She clearly knew she was a NOC, right? And she clearly identified herself as a CIA employee to people who were not cleared to know she was a NOC.

Case closed. She outted herself to the state department. Who they later told is irrelevant. The crime occured when she revealed her status as a CIA employee in that meeting.
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#28 Oct 20 2005 at 5:31 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
How the hell is that *not* outting herself?
Because it's a guess on your part?
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#29 Oct 20 2005 at 5:44 PM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
How the hell is that *not* outting herself?
Because it's a guess on your part?


I thought the fact that she was or wasn't NOC is disputed or at least cloudy.
#30 Oct 20 2005 at 6:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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Prince pickleprince wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
How the hell is that *not* outting herself?
Because it's a guess on your part?


I thought the fact that she was or wasn't NOC is disputed or at least cloudy.


If she was not a NOC, then no crime was commited, and the entire thing is pointless.

If she was a NOC, then she outted herself at the meeting.

It's not supposition. Here's a timeline.


Note this part:

Quote:
February 19

* The CIA Counterproliferation Division (CPD) holds a meeting at CIA headquarters with Joe Wilson. In attendance are intelligence analysts from both the CIA and the State Department's INR. At the beginning of the meeting Valerie Plame introduces Wilson, then leaves after three minutes. The purpose of the meeting it to discuss the merits of sending Wilson to Niger to verify or negate the reports that Iraq was seeking to purchase uranium from Niger.[10] He is asked to attend because of his expertise on Africa and his knowledge of the African uranium trade, gained during his years at the Clinton White House.

This meeting in a windowless conference room opens with a mention of Mr. Cheney's inquiry about the African connection to Iraq. During the course of that meeting, officials raised the possibility of his traveling to Niger and told him they would contact him with a decision.



Get it? This is not a matter of debate. This is a fact. No one has *ever* disputed that Valerie Plame was at that meeting. Yes. I'm supposing that she was identified as a CIA employee, but that's a reasonable assumption, isn't it? It's a meeting at CIA headquarters, and she handled the introductions. I'm pretty sure the CIA does not subcontract people to handle meetings in their own buildings...


That's the crime right there. What was a NOC doing walking around the halls of CIA headquarters, where she's clearly going to be assumed to be a CIA employee, and worse, what is she doing interacting with non-CIA employees inside the building?

My theory only relies on two things that are not known for sure:

1. She had to have been reasonably identified or identifiable as a CIA employee.

2. Assuming the above, she had to have *not* identified herself as a NOC to those in the room and ensured that they understood her identity was a codeword matter.


I think both of those are reasonable suppositions to make. As I pointed out earlier, it would be reasonable to assume she was a CIA employee. Who else could she have worked for? Even if she didn't have a badge (which I find unlikely anyway), the assumption by everyone in the room would have been that she was working for the CIA, right?

The second is also reasonable. She was only in the room for 3 minutes. She handled introductions and then left. That's not enough time to have gone over her NOC status, ensured that everyone understood the non-disclosure of that fact, etc.


If they'd been treating her as a NOC, there would have been no reason to have her in the meeting. She behaved in every way as though she was a "normal" CIA employee, not a NOC. She made no attempt to conceal her employment with the CIA. If she is a NOC, and she did this, then she violated national security.

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#31 Oct 20 2005 at 6:03 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
I tend to dismiss most of the "She wasn't really covert so no one could have broken the law no matter what" arguments based on the simple fact that Patrick Fitzgerald isn't an idiot and, if it was that cut and dry, he wouldn't have wasted the past year investigating the issue.
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#32 Oct 20 2005 at 6:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
I tend to dismiss most of the "She wasn't really covert so no one could have broken the law no matter what" arguments based on the simple fact that Patrick Fitzgerald isn't an idiot and, if it was that cut and dry, he wouldn't have wasted the past year investigating the issue.


Yeah. I'm of the same position as well. Just stating the same thing in a different way. If she *wasn't*, then not only is it really silly to have investigated this for a year, but there was no crime commited either...
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#33 Oct 20 2005 at 6:57 PM Rating: Good
It's times like these that Gbaji being Smash's sockpuppet makes more and more sense.

--DK
#34 Oct 20 2005 at 9:27 PM Rating: Good
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Yeah. I'm of the same position as well. Just stating the same thing in a different way. If she *wasn't*, then not only is it really silly to have investigated this for a year, but there was no crime commited either...


So you agree, then, that assuming she didn't 'out herself' then a crime was committed? Good!

--DK
#35 Oct 20 2005 at 9:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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Darkknight wrote:
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Yeah. I'm of the same position as well. Just stating the same thing in a different way. If she *wasn't*, then not only is it really silly to have investigated this for a year, but there was no crime commited either...


So you agree, then, that assuming she didn't 'out herself' then a crime was committed? Good!

--DK


Huh? What the heck are you talking about? I'm agreeing that if she wasn't actually a NOC, then her identity as a CIA employee isn't a matter of national security, and there's no crime in telling someone that she works at the CIA (making the whole investigation pointless).

If she was a NOC, and she revealed her employment status with the CIA to people who were not cleared to know she was a NOC, then she commited a crime.

What's really confusing about that? If it's illegal for someone like Rove to reveal a NOC as a CIA employee, then it's illegal no matter who did it. I'm just suggesting that the "source of the leak" about her employment at the CIA was Valerie Plame herself. She revealed it to the state department, who later revealed it to Novak and perhaps Rove and perhaps half the White House staff. Where it went from there is irrelevant. The point of illegality is the point at which someone "in the know" about her status as a NOC identifies her as a CIA employee to someone who's not in that same circle of knowledge. If you trace the whole thing back, it all leads right to that meeting. Or do you think it's a coincidence that the group within the state department that wrote the memo (INR) was the same group present at that meeting?


It's the only explanation that covers every single aspect of this case. It explains how the state department knew. It explains how Rove and other White House staff knew she was working at the CIA, but presumably (at least according to statements so far) did not know she was a NOC. It also explains why Novak calls her Valerie Plame instead of Valerie Wilson. If he was investigating Valerie Plame, the CIA employee who set up the meeting that led to Wilson's Niger trip, then it makes sense that he'd continue using that name even after he discovers that she's also Wilson's wife. It makes no sense if he was investigating Wilson's wife to try to dig up dirt on him or something (which is the commonly held motive).

Again. Can you logically refute my theory? Can you come up with a better one that fits all the facts? I'm betting you cant...
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#36 Oct 20 2005 at 9:55 PM Rating: Decent
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If she was a NOC, then why was she there in the first place?
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#37 Oct 20 2005 at 11:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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What's really confusing about that? If it's illegal for someone like Rove to reveal a NOC as a CIA employee, then it's illegal no matter who did it.


What's "really confusing" about it is that it's incorrect. Agents have some latitude in deciding to reveal their status (assuming she did). Others do not.
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#38 Oct 21 2005 at 9:32 AM Rating: Good
So you're saying one of the people at the meeting 18 months prior to novak's article told novak?

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#39 Oct 21 2005 at 10:05 AM Rating: Excellent
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That brings up a recurring, but still valid point: where the hell is Novak in all this? He's the one who wrote the article, for fu[i][/i]ck's sake. Yet I've heard nothing about his having testified, or having been compelled to testify.
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#40 Oct 21 2005 at 10:09 AM Rating: Good
Novak "promised" to tell all once this is reolved.

Whoppity do!
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#41 Oct 21 2005 at 3:58 PM Rating: Decent
Alittle off subject, but not really. 9/11; Cheney did it, Bush knew about it.
Look at Enron; They had all the evidence to lock up all, and any, of the people responsible for ripping off our nation. But when we went to get the files, Cheney simply said, you can't have the files, and i don't have to give America an explanation why.
Cheney is a POS that is protecting scumbag around America.

ps. I also heard an interesting fact. Did you know Bush isn't the only one with major oil ties that plains to benifit from Iraq's invation. Infact many of the members in the house and senate share the exact same ties...

Edited, Fri Oct 21 17:13:46 2005 by PackyMcStout
#42 Oct 21 2005 at 4:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
If she was a NOC, then why was she there in the first place?


Exactly. Yet the fact that there's an investigation leads us to assume that she was a NOC (see Joph's line of reasoning above).

Thus. The conclusion is that she was a NOC and should not have been at that meeting, but did anyway... That's your leak right there.
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#43 Oct 21 2005 at 4:28 PM Rating: Decent
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Because Clinton ******* a fatty then getting busted lying about it in front of the whole world must have made us look great. icon


Kinda like at least 75% of men world-wide do on a daily basis. = /
#44 Oct 21 2005 at 4:37 PM Rating: Decent
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Kinda like at least 75% of men world-wide do on a daily basis. = /


Smiley: dubious

#45 Oct 21 2005 at 4:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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The One and Only Omegavegeta wrote:
So you're saying one of the people at the meeting 18 months prior to novak's article told novak?


Well. I don't think they ran out and told him. I think they simply knew since they were at the meeting.

I imagine it went more like this:

Novak is investigating Wilson's trip to Niger. An obvious point to start from is the meeting at which Wilson was briefed on the trip in the first place. It's reasonable to expect that he might have gone to members of the State Department and asked some basic stuff like: "Who was at the meeting?" and "Who set up the meeting?". Since the names of the people in attendance would not have been classified (I'm not aware that any aspect of that meeting was classified, it wasn't exactly a covert operation after all), there would have been no reason for the INR guys at State not to give Novak a list of the people there. That list would have included employees of the State Department, Joe Wilson, and employees of the CIA, including one Valerie Plame.

At this point, Novak knows of a woman named Valerie Plame who works at the CIA and who seemingly set up the meeting (she makes introductions and leaves, which is a bit unusual). Whether she actually did or not is irrelevant. What matters is that her role in the trip is unclear, and Novak (being an investigative reporter) is going to be interested in figuring out what exactly she had to do with all of this. I imagine after some amount of digging on Valerie Plame and getting next to nothing, he would eventually realize that Plame is the maiden name for Valerie Wilson. Hmmm...

That's reasonable supposition IMO. The next bit is a bit more out on a limb, but explains a lot:

Novak needs to confirm his suspicion before writing a story though. He goes to the INR guys who were at the meeting with a picture of Valerie Wilson and asks "Is this the woman who made introductions at the meeting?". Bam! The outting is complete.

Alternatively, it's someone at the State department who puts it together independantly (INR does stand for "Investigation and Research", so that's not unreasonable). They know Novak's looking into the identity of this woman. Perhaps they realized this based on his earlier questions about the meeting and that spurred them on into investigating her themselves.

Either way (or perhaps through a completely different method), at some point both the INR and Novak know that Valerie Plame the CIA operative is also Valerie Wilson, wife of Joe Wilson. From there it's just a matter of what order various people in Washington were told...

Note, that Rove's involvement is completely superfluous to the trail of information. There's zero evidence that he was ever "in the know" as to her NOC status, nor ever in a position to out her. Whether he found out from the state department memo, or from Novak calling him, or Novak talking to any of a number of other staff and it getting spread around is irrelevant. Who Rove told after learning himself is irrelevant. The "leak" occurred long before Rove even comes remotely into the picture.

It's not illegal to reveal that someone is an employee of the CIA. It's only illegal to do that if you know that person is a NOC. There's no evidence that *anyone* involved in this other then Valerie Plame herself knew she was a NOC. That's why I tend to think she's the one responsible for the leak.

She got sloppy, screwed up, and revealed her identity and employment to people who weren't cleared to know it. Seems pretty straightforward to me...

Edited, Fri Oct 21 17:52:04 2005 by gbaji
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#46 Oct 21 2005 at 5:42 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
Debalic wrote:
If she was a NOC, then why was she there in the first place?

Exactly. Yet the fact that there's an investigation leads us to assume that she was a NOC (see Joph's line of reasoning above).

Thus. The conclusion is that she was a NOC and should not have been at that meeting, but did anyway... That's your leak right there.

That wasn't a rhetorical question, g. I'm assuming that she didn't take it upon herself to go play hostess at this event on her own accord...surely she must have been assigned the task or at least reviewed?

I would look closely at her chain of command (if it's readily available) and the kind of duties agents of her classification are normally performing.
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#47 Oct 21 2005 at 6:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic makes a good point. One would think, and this takes a lot less random guessing and conjecture than your theories, that whoever put together the CIA meeting in CIA headquarters and included Ms. Plame into the meeting (somehow I doubt these meetings have an open door policy) would have already cleared the guest list and the speakers.

Unless you're of the opinion that Ms. Plame acted independantly by attending a meeting she wasn't offically invited to speak at, your "she illegally outted herself!" theory holds no water.
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#48 Oct 21 2005 at 6:19 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Debalic makes a good point. One would think, and this takes a lot less random guessing and conjecture than your theories, that whoever put together the CIA meeting in CIA headquarters and included Ms. Plame into the meeting (somehow I doubt these meetings have an open door policy) would have already cleared the guest list and the speakers.

Unless you're of the opinion that Ms. Plame acted independantly by attending a meeting she wasn't offically invited to speak at, your "she illegally outted herself!" theory holds no water.


Not at all. My theory does not preclude sloppiness at a higher level within the CIA at all. Certainly, there could have been a manager/director or three that made critical mistakes that resulted in this happening.


I honestly do think that's exactly what likely happened. She'd not operated as a NOC for something like 8 years or so. She'd been working directly out of the CIA headquarters for 5 years. I have a feeling they just kinda "forgot" about the fact that she worked as a NOC all those years ago and figured it didn't matter.

There were likely dozens of meetings in which she appeared as a CIA employee without fully clearing everyone on her NOC status. But this was the one that ended up gaining public attention. It does not change the fact that every single time she put herself in this situation, she was breaking the law (as was whoever approvved her being there). In exactly the same way that every time you drink and drive you are breaking the law, even if you don't cause a crash and don't get caught.


Ultimately, that's my whole problem with the investigation and the direction it's been going. While Rove isn't the nicest person in Washington, it's ludicrous to focus an investigation on his actions, when by all accounts Plame and the CIA treated the "secrecy" of her CIA employment so cavalierly that she could have been seen and identified on any of a number of occasions. I point out this particular meeting because that's the specific occasion in which Novak likely discovered it. The fact that she appeared in that meeting in such an extremely casual way implies that she and her employeers were basically taking *zero* steps to ensure that her past work as a NOC was protected in any way. Why then be surprised when someone eventually puts one and one together and arrives at the obvious conclusion? And even more bizarrely, why go after someone who obviously found out at the far end of a telephone game of information passing?


Whether it's Plame or her handlers who are responsible, I don't think it's unreasonable at all to point at the meeting and say that that's the "source" of the outting of her identity. And that ultimately falls in the CIA's lap either way you look at it.
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#49 Oct 21 2005 at 6:22 PM Rating: Good
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Not at all. My theory does not preclude sloppiness at a higher level within the CIA at all. Certainly, there could have been a manager/director or three that made critical mistakes that resulted in this happening.
Then why didn't scooter just come out and say that when the whole thing started?
#50 Oct 21 2005 at 7:02 PM Rating: Good

This is a quote from an article in the New York Times that was published today:

"It is still not publicly known who first told the columnist Robert D. Novak the identity of the C.I.A. officer, Valerie Wilson. Mr. Novak identified her in a column on July 14, 2003, using her maiden name, Valerie Plame. Mr. Fitzgerald knows the identity of this source, a person who is not believed to work at the White House, the lawyers said."



#51 Oct 21 2005 at 9:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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The Glorious Lubriderm wrote:
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Not at all. My theory does not preclude sloppiness at a higher level within the CIA at all. Certainly, there could have been a manager/director or three that made critical mistakes that resulted in this happening.
Then why didn't scooter just come out and say that when the whole thing started?


/shrug
How do you know he didn't?


While I can't find any direct quotes from Libby on this subject. IIRC, Novaks initial response when her status as a NOC came out was that her employment at the CIA was "well known in Washington". He didn't think her employment status at the CIA was a secret. The point of his article wasn't to identify her as a CIA operative, but to show that she was involved in the decision to send her husband on the fact finding mission to Niger.


And given the obvious and open manner in which she appeared in that Feb 2002 meeting, is there any real wonder *why* her employment with the CIA was so well known? More to the point, why should we assume that anyone thought this was a secret? She wasn't treating it that way. The CIA wasn't treating it that way. Why be surprised when someone eventually mentions it publically?

Her outting was not the result of some kind of breakin, or espionage, or leaking of secret information. Her outting was most likely the result of total sloppiness on the part of herself and her CIA employers. She should never have been working openly in that office, much less appearing in meetings with non-CIA people.

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