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Is Phantom Roll truly that random?Follow

#1 Apr 23 2009 at 8:59 AM Rating: Decent
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Obviously being a game, it is hard to say that anything is truly random since much of the game is coded, but I think rolls from Phantom Roll are more "Bi-Polar" than "Random."

I'm sure many of you have had those "streaks" where you roll nothing but lucky rolls for an hour straight and then it completely turns around and roll nothing but unlucky for the next hour.

I seemed to notice this all the way up to 37 when I got my first useful II/VI Dice, Samurai Roll. First 5 times I rolled Samurai Roll, I got nothing but II's either by hitting II dead on or by doubling up on I and get I. After that, my luck turned quite sour. I busted on Samurai Roll twice in a row (leaving me double busted) by rolling exactly VI and attempting to get off unlucky busting on a doubled up VI. Again, this happened twice in a row. I chopped it up to a fluke.

Over the last 8 levels, it has happened almost every time I land on a VI with Samurai Roll that I will almost assuredly double up with a VI and bust (I stopped counting after my 5th repeated offense, but I am sure it has happened at least 10 times since I got the dice).



What I am getting at is the dice seem to be very hot or very cold all of the time. I have hit more unlucky or lucky numbers than any other combination of rolls. If I am rolling Hunter's or Chaos, I see more IV's and VIII's than any other roll, and then when I rolled Healer's I almost always got III's and VII's. Am I truly just that lucky and unlucky, or are the dice not as random as I think they are?
#2 Apr 23 2009 at 10:53 AM Rating: Decent
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It's completely random.

If you gamble or have ever been around anyone who gambles, they'll swear by a "system" that gives them an advantage over the house (such as doubling down over and over again until you win)...

If there is some kind of "luck enhancing" component or stat (stack AGI and see if you get better results over time) then the player base has not found it yet.

Other then the Tier II merits that stack the luck in your favor at times, there's nothing else I know of that will help you get lucky rolls besides... well.... luck ^^

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#3 Apr 23 2009 at 11:08 AM Rating: Excellent
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You are guaranteed to roll a VI immediately after a VI.

Fact.
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#4 Apr 23 2009 at 11:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
You are guaranteed to roll a VI immediately after a VI.


QFT.

Supposedly it's as random as it can be, but any number generation system in this game cannot technically be truly "random" because it is most definitely based on an algorithm that controls the output. It may be based on time, a token key, or any other factor, but it's not entirely random.

But for the most part I believe this system is about as random as you can get in the game, except for the rolling VI right after another VI (especially on Healer's Roll). :D
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#5 Apr 23 2009 at 12:09 PM Rating: Good
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Heh,

I have noticed 6 then 6 is quite a popular outcome lol. You really just need to play the percentages, determine the priority each roll has in the cycle and use fold/snake eye/random deal effectively.

Yesterday in nyzul I had an interesting streak going. Every time people get their chest items, I do chaos roll before we go in. First run, I got to 6, rolled 5 and hit 11. Second time I hit 6, then 5 for another 11. Third run I forgot how I got there but i landed on 7 and was going to leave it because obviously snake eye would give me an unlucky 8 and the odds of getting an improved roll were only 50/50. The others were convinced I was lucky, so egged me on to double-up "you'll get an 11" they said. Sure enough, I double-up, hit another 11 lol.

Tuesday in einherjar i mistakenly put wizard's roll on the SMN when we entered, right before an astral flow strategy on a wave of mobs. Took it off with fold and random deal, stuck an 11 DRG roll on them instead.

Of course, if you aren't 75 yet, you're kind of at the mercy of your rolls. But once you have snake eye and fold, you really can be a little more aggressive when all those tools are at your disposal. But yeah, hot and cold streaks are perfectly normal in any "random" system. I've noticed I tend to be more lucky than not though. I once rolled six consecutive luckys in salvage. I can't recall ever hitting more than 3 unluckys in a row and my normal rolling style is to save snake eye for rolling off an unlucky (unless the roll has such a huge priority that using seye to guarantee a lucky outweighs the other rolls entirely).
#6 Apr 23 2009 at 12:22 PM Rating: Good
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They might as well rename this game to "Random Number Generator XI".
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#7 Apr 23 2009 at 12:39 PM Rating: Decent
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hot and cold streaks are random. That's how luck works.

What I find interesting is how with certain rolls I tend to get some numbers more than others. With DNC roll a frequently get a 4 for some reason. Now it may be because I'm noticing more when it happens, but it's gotten to the point I want to actually test it and keep track.

But i would imagine SE could have coded it any way they felt like it. A true loaded dice system isn't much harder to program than a random number generator. unfortunately only the diligent COR with time to test 1000 rolls would be able to check it.

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#8 Apr 23 2009 at 12:41 PM Rating: Decent
anyone else find it ironic that phantom roll is more random than random deal?

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#9 Apr 23 2009 at 2:13 PM Rating: Decent
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The patterns that emerge from the constant use of random numbers is a side-effect of the evolutionary process that lead to humanity. Real causation and probability are quickly tossed by the wayside in order to try to create a memory that will serve us.

EX. A person thinks something is the case (doesnt matter what, a pattern, that they are being stalked by a lion that will eat them, ect) they react upon that suspicion (it is false) but ANYTHING positive (positive in the manner that some occurs, not that it benifits the observer) follows it temporally (they avoid a danger, get a prize, win AV fight) . We as rational observers know that there is no causation and that a random event simply happened AFTER the suspicion of something.

However, evolution programmed us to default: REACT.
Reacting to something, or assuming a correlation between events that is NOT the case rarely brings harm to anything.
But doing the opposite - not reacting to something that IS there - can be very deadly.

As such, we wind patterns, jump at odd noises,see Jesus in billboards of spaghetti, and think that 6+6 double ups happen more than 6+anything else.

on any 6 roll, the only 100% bad roll is, of course, another 6. As this is the only set of rolling only twice that is bad for EVERY roll, it stands out in our non-logical non-probabilistic brains. We create the causation via our experiences with temporal order and cause-effect.

We are all wrong. Its just random. Producing the sample to prove it would be boring and unnecessary but if someone wants to record 10000 roll/doubleups (in any combo) in order and grouped by roll + double up, the produce MODE based spreadsheet of numbers occuring after base 6 rolls be my guest.

10k rolls might not be enough to produce the result with high confidence. IDK i am not a math person. but as only 1/6 of them should start with 6, you may need some super crazy sample size to make FFXI gamers happy with the maths.
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#10 Apr 24 2009 at 4:42 AM Rating: Good
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LordTrey wrote:
The patterns that emerge from the constant use of random numbers is a side-effect of the evolutionary process that lead to humanity. Real causation and probability are quickly tossed by the wayside in order to try to create a memory that will serve us.

EX. A person thinks something is the case (doesnt matter what, a pattern, that they are being stalked by a lion that will eat them, ect) they react upon that suspicion (it is false) but ANYTHING positive (positive in the manner that some occurs, not that it benifits the observer) follows it temporally (they avoid a danger, get a prize, win AV fight) . We as rational observers know that there is no causation and that a random event simply happened AFTER the suspicion of something.

However, evolution programmed us to default: REACT.
Reacting to something, or assuming a correlation between events that is NOT the case rarely brings harm to anything.
But doing the opposite - not reacting to something that IS there - can be very deadly.

As such, we wind patterns, jump at odd noises,see Jesus in billboards of spaghetti, and think that 6+6 double ups happen more than 6+anything else.

on any 6 roll, the only 100% bad roll is, of course, another 6. As this is the only set of rolling only twice that is bad for EVERY roll, it stands out in our non-logical non-probabilistic brains. We create the causation via our experiences with temporal order and cause-effect.

We are all wrong. Its just random. Producing the sample to prove it would be boring and unnecessary but if someone wants to record 10000 roll/doubleups (in any combo) in order and grouped by roll + double up, the produce MODE based spreadsheet of numbers occuring after base 6 rolls be my guest.

10k rolls might not be enough to produce the result with high confidence. IDK i am not a math person. but as only 1/6 of them should start with 6, you may need some super crazy sample size to make FFXI gamers happy with the maths.

Somebody found the special "spiced" rum. Mind sharing?!?

I agree. Random Generator Is Random.

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#11 Apr 24 2009 at 7:00 AM Rating: Good
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http://www.random.org/analysis/dilbert.jpg

I think SE ordered a similar system (6 instead of 9) for Phantom Roll.
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#12 Apr 24 2009 at 1:45 PM Rating: Decent
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I too believe I roll VI after VI much more often than any other # after a VI.
I also believe I roll a VI after a V much more often than any other # after a V.

I'll start keeping track and post some stats back in a while on what it truly is.
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#13 Apr 24 2009 at 2:59 PM Rating: Decent
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Rolling double 6s seems to happen more often because it sticks out in one's mind. I feel like a tard and a bad COR when it happens, so that strong (strong relative to other events that happen in parties. I'm not losing sleep over busting or anything) negative feedback makes it stand out. If you roll 6 then 4, or 6 then 2, who cares? Why would you remember that?
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#14 Apr 24 2009 at 3:34 PM Rating: Decent
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I wear my lucky underwear when I play cor, and I get more lucky rolls, coincidence?
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#15 Apr 24 2009 at 4:07 PM Rating: Default
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OP doesn't know what random is.
#16 Apr 27 2009 at 2:32 PM Rating: Good
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PriestoftheVoid wrote:
Rolling double 6s seems to happen more often because it sticks out in one's mind.


I understand the phenomenom you're describing, but I REALLY don't think it's true for the double up on 6 situation. I know that a BUST sticks out in your mind more, but it's not just my experience that it seems the 6 on 6 outcome happens a lot more than 1/6 of the time (+/- a proper margin of error).

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the random number generator for Phantom Roll was actually 100% random except for the situation of being on 6, and then having something like the following probability for next roll pugged into the number generator:

1 - 15%
2 - 15%
3 - 15%
4 - 15%
5 - 15%
6 - 25%


As for lucky streaks... one of the very few times I've seen Drachen Roll in regular sustained use (i.e. not just for Astral Flow) was a night we were running through a Limbus zone and I was on PUP using the BLM automaton. By some fluke, we had plenty of support so it ended up that my friend was on COR and were the only 2 people in one party of the alliance. Anyway, he kept Drachen Roll up on me the entire time and hit XI EVERY time except for one roll for the duration of our approximately 60-70 minutes in the zone (with 6min duration from his Winning Streak merits). It was ridiculous. At first only me (being a COR as well) and the COR noticed and we chuckled about the good luck. It got to the point where the whole LS knew what was going on after his 4th or so in a row and we all got a good laugh out of it. I swear I was about to buy the guy a plane ticket to Vegas that night. I had a very happy automaton too.

And of course, for ME that kind of luck has never happened ;) But I do have an uncanny knack for hitting XIs when somebody is AFK and the party is just standing around. And yes, I know THAT observation is probably the "sticking out in your mind" phenomenom at work.
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#17 Apr 27 2009 at 2:56 PM Rating: Decent
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Anyone else get really annoyed by people spouting "computers can't be truly random!!!" in every one of these topics?

Yes, we know computers can't generate perfectly random numbers without using ion decay. We know. You're not special for knowing a common piece of trivia. Do you realize that it only matters in very few extremely sensitive applications? Even a **** graphing calculator can do "random" well enough for FFXI. Your random function is, for all practical purposes, fucking random enough. It's not going to spit out 999 999 999 999 999 999 or 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 just because it doesn't like you.

If you actually have any data supporting your theory that it's not random enough, parse it and post it. Otherwise, you're contributing nothing but superstition and paranoia.
#18 Apr 28 2009 at 4:42 AM Rating: Decent
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If someone was truly interested, they would test it out with a large sample of rolls.

Edited, Apr 28th 2009 7:42am by doctorugh
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#19 Apr 28 2009 at 9:05 AM Rating: Good
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Seems totally random to me. I'd say its nothing more then placebo. Good rolls and Bad rolls will stick out more then the mediochre ones.

~Ath
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