Bored Druid Thread: The Next GenerationFollow

If its a logic question, then it's asking how many combinations are there, and of those how many are just boy, so the 1-2 2-1 combinations still count making the answer 1/3.

I'm inclined to say the answer is 50%, period. For one, the question isn't asking what the probability of them having a boy and a girl is, it's asking what the probability that their next child is a girl is.

But even more than that, the probability of getting a boy and a girl isn't conditional on the first selection specifically because the first selection has a probability of 1.

The probability of getting a boy and a girl is still 2/4 when you don't know what the first will be.

Whoever is teaching that to you sounds confused to me. I'm not a statistics genius by any long shot, but this just sounds really glaringly wrong.

Do you have a link? Assuming birth results are independent then it's the overall chance of having a girl, which is likely slightly higher than 50%, as I think girls are slightly more common.

All I learned in logic class was that the real answer was irrelevant, just to word things to make the answer you want right become correct. In other words, logic is *********

All my hate.

Edited, Mar 17th 2014 2:16pm by lolgaxe

ah, could be. I just know there are slightly more females in the US.

So my understanding is that .5 or 1/3 are both correct depending on how you read the sentence, so it's not a paradox.

If you know the first child is a boy, the probability of the first child being a boy is 1, so the only statistical variable here is what the probability of the second child being a boy is. That's the only variable that matters.

When you switch that "child 1 is a boy" to "at least one child is a boy," you're heavily changing the game. Because now you have two variables, not one. The conditions you have to meet are now different.

So, not a paradox. And it comes down to whether you have statistical certainty on your data points.

But I don't see how it can ever be 1/3.

Assuming the phrasing "At least one child is a boy", you're only left with two possible combinations:

Boy and a girl
Boy and a boy

1/2 chance.

I know that you're supposed to list the entire amount of combinations:

Boy and a boy
Girl and a girl
Boy and a girl
Girl and a boy

And then you strike the ones that don't match the data. One is a boy, so the "Girl and a girl" combination is removed. Voila, three combinations remain of which one is the outcome. 1/3 chance.

The "Boy and a girl" vs "Girl and a boy" thing just makes zero sense to me. They're the same combination, just shifted around. 4+2 = 2+4. The order doesn't matter, does it? I get that they're two combinations, but I don't get how they, logically, count as two different combinations when they're identical.

Edited, Mar 17th 2014 10:15pm by Mazra

Well, ****, I knew I should've gone with Danish instead.

That reminds me; I need new shoes. The ones I have now are beginning to tear my socks apart.

They're not identical, as they illustrate different scenarios. You can draw paths.

Path 1 - Boy -Girl
Path 2 - Boy - Boy
Path 3 - Girl - Girl
Path 4 - Girl - Boy


Those are four unique paths, each have a probability of 25% given independant probabilities of 50% boy and girl per birth. Of those scenarios, three of them have at least one boy, but only one has two boys, hence the 1/3.

400 euros seems like a horrifyingly high amount to pay for shoes.

Depens on what sort of shoe you're buying. Sneakers then yeah it is but for high end fashion it's more or less to be expected because handmade, limited production etc.

For high quality dress boots or shoes you're starting at around €200 or so and if you look at custom made shoes then that €400 is probably in need of another zero.

The pfoblem woth the sneakers for me is that you don't find the models I like outside of the fancy designer brands. Even sneakers like Rick Owens Geobaskets don't have a cheaper alternative (and they're €750ish). Other more out there designs like say Damir Doma Falco's are never going to be found for less than the €600+ pricetag they have unless they go on sale which is fairly unlikely.