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In Praise of the FFXI Auction HouseFollow

#27 Sep 24 2013 at 5:06 PM Rating: Default
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oddwaffle wrote:
@almalieque: Anyone who studies statistics knows that common sense is often wrong when it comes to numbers. That's why you have statistics to get it right. A perfect example would be to show you 3 cards facing down, a Jack and 2 Aces. I ask you to choose a card that you think is the Jack. Then I reveal an Ace on the remaining 2 cards and ask if you wish to change your choice. Common sense tells you it doesn't matter as it's like 50-50. Statistics say that you should always change.



Given the previous scenario that you presented, would a person go the 900 gil vender and give him 1000 gil?

Oddwaffle wrote:
In a fair market, prices get adjust quickly. If there are more supply, the price will be lower.

Not according to Supply and Demand. The problem with all of these self proclaimed Economists, is that high supply doesn't mean that demand is automatically low. That's why organizations such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, etc. will ensure that they have several copies of whatever they are selling in order to maximize their profits. Retailers, as a result, do not begin undercutting each other (at least to a significant degree as in game) in order to equally maximize their profits as well.

Oddwaffle wrote:
The current AH method forces the sellers to adjust their prices when their goods aren't selling fast enough. Your AH method reduce the speed of price adjustments and encourages monopoly power (again, get econ101 to understand why).


Then you simply don't understand my proposition. The current method forces people to continuously undercut regardless of supply and demand. The proposed method forces people to analyze the current spending trends before setting a price. It stabilizes price adjustments and in no way encourages monopoly power. It does just the opposite. The current proposition allow under cutters to monopolize the market.

Oddwaffle wrote:
For example, if you only have 1 seller selling RCB and he can sell 7 RCB every 2 days for 1000gil each. A new seller wants to join the market, what can he do? Well, the only thing the new seller can do is to post lower than 1000g and sell his goods. In the current AH system, the new seller goods get sold 1st and forces the old seller to lower his prices. In your system, the old seller can keep posting at 1000g and get his goods sold as people don't spend a lot of time checking for 900g RCB. The new seller will realize that he has no reason to put any lower than 1000g so he will keep that price and just wait in line for his goods to sell. The net effect is bad for the economy as the price doesn't go down quick enough with increase in supply.


ALmalieque wrote:
How is that any better than now? Now, people have their stuff sent back and not sold until others are no longer selling. Even if you undercut the going price, people will continue to sell and the more people who sell, the less they will set their prices. The result is you having to resell your item.


You and Meldi refuse to address this. How is it ok for one group to monopolize it and not another? You're using the SAME EXACT argument that I'm using AGAINST the current system against the proposed system. The difference that you keep conveniently overlooking is that there are enough people who will spend time checking for 900 RCB, the AH history proves that. In the current system, it doesn't matter if the buyer takes that additional time or not to bid 900 gil, it automatically goes to the under cutter. In the proposed system, it's more balanced because it can go either way. So, unless your argument is that people never underbid, you simply have no argument.


Meldi wrote:
Very well said Oddwaffle. Thank you


lol
#28 Sep 24 2013 at 8:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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Greetings. Sorry I didn't respond to your "rebuttal" sooner. I moved and just got internet back.

Here is the problem you have Almalieque. Your basic premise is fallacious. Let me write it in big letters so that you understand.

Your proposed change DOES NOTHING to CREATE or ADD competition. There would be no net gain in sellers, no net gain in buyers. There would be no more product being sold.

In addition, the assumptions you make are flawed. Take for instance your comments on balance. Balance is never the end goal of a market because there are always new players entering and old players exiting the market. "Balance" is only for studying hypothetical economies where only one or maybe two controlled points of the economy is changed to view the effect on the balance. Attempting to force balance on the system is a foolish and impossible venture.

Regardless, you keep acting like everyone is responsible for proving that the current system is perfect. Sorry, that isn't how it works. You have to prove that your proposal will make it better. Here's a hint: you haven't.
#29 Sep 24 2013 at 9:27 PM Rating: Default
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Meldi wrote:
Your proposed change DOES NOTHING to CREATE or ADD competition.In addition, the assumptions you make are flawed. Take for instance your comments on balance. Balance is never the end goal of a market because there are always new players entering and old players exiting the market. "Balance" is only for studying hypothetical economies where only one or maybe two controlled points of the economy is changed to view the effect on the balance. Attempting to force balance on the system is a foolish and impossible venture.

Regardless, you keep acting like everyone is responsible for proving that the current system is perfect. Sorry, that isn't how it works. You have to prove that your proposal will make it better. Here's a hint: you haven't.


It is 100% competition and that's why you don't like it. It doesn't simply shift the competition to one side, it evens it out.

There are primarily four different groups that deal with AH. You have the sellers who list at or around the listing price, sellers who sell at an undercut price, buyers who bid at or around the listing price and buyers who bid at an undercut price.

Currently, the sellers who list at an undercut price are more likely to win BOTH types of buyers. With my proposition, the sellers who list at an undercut price will more than likely win the buyers who bid at an undercut price. Likewise, the sellers who list at or around listing price will primarily win the buyers who bid at or around the list price. If you want to win more customers, then you have to adjust your prices accordingly. It's no longer a freebie. THAT IS COMPETITION. Just simply adding another seller does not create competition, especially when the result is primarily one way. Someone's taco stand isn't considered competition with a high class sit in restaurant.

You said that you don't have a problem with competition, then give me a scenario, where my proposition causes chaos, explain to me the problem and how the current system counters it.
#30 Sep 24 2013 at 10:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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It is 100% competition


You keep using these words, I do not think they mean what you think they mean.

Quote:
Just simply adding another seller does not create competition


Um.... see my above post. Another seller entering the market is precisely the definition of competition.

Oddwaffle has already given you an example. Your proposal creates a stagnant market where prices don't change. A market that invites collusion from a small group of sellers controls what the price will be.
#31 Sep 25 2013 at 4:36 AM Rating: Good
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Sorry Almalieque but you need to get up to snuff about basic economics as many of your comments are fairly ignorant, and I'm being nice. Markets are ruled by the forces of supply and demand and your proposed system breaks that completely. I understand your pissed that people are undercutting you and causing you to receive less profit per unit of work, welcome to free markets. That's exactly how Apple felt when Samsung entered the marketplace strongly. That's how every business feels when a competitor appears, and competition will always appear. They have to work more for the same profit until equilibrium is reached. That equilibrium is temporary and will change the moment market conditions change so it's only important in snapshot scenarios when doing comparisons and metrics.
#32Almalieque, Posted: Sep 25 2013 at 6:34 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post)
#33 Sep 25 2013 at 6:53 AM Rating: Default
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Saev wrote:
Sorry Almalieque but you need to get up to snuff about basic economics as many of your comments are fairly ignorant, and I'm being nice.


No concern. I'm fairly confident in my understanding of simple economics. I had more written here, but after reading the rest of your post, I concluded that you just haven't read my posts and decided to comment on what you THOUGHT I was saying.

Saev wrote:
Markets are ruled by the forces of supply and demand and your proposed system breaks that completely.

LOL.. It actually does the exact opposite. It upholds supply and demand. People in this game believe that simply having a high supply in items AUTOMATICALLY = low demand. It is possible to have a high supply of items in high demand. Likewise, it is possible to have low supply of items in low demand.

Saev wrote:
I understand your pissed that people are undercutting you and causing you to receive less profit per unit of work, welcome to free markets.


You obviously haven't been paying attention. Please see my quotes below. Not only do I not care about undercutting, that's EXACTLY what I do. That isn't the problem. The problem is that under cutters shouldn't get full price for an item.

ALmalieque wrote:
So, for something that costs 400k, people will bid by 100ks until around 300k and probably start bidding by 10k until 390k. Then by 1k till around 400k. As a result, I will sell my product for 326,458 gil. No one bids by 6k, so I'm more likely to get the 350,000 bids, because people like you would sell it for 350,100. That depends on the number of people selling. If there aren't a lot of people selling it, then I would sell it for 377,632 gil. After people try 375,000 gil, they will probably go for 390,000 or the full price. Likewise with buying. If I lose a bid at full price, I increment the same way.


Almalieque wrote:
If you truly understood my proposition, you would realize that I'm not against undercutting. I'm against paying full prices for undercut prices. Given your scenario, if a person is willing to pay 1000 gil, they will go to the 1000 gil vender, not the 900 vender.


Saev wrote:
That's exactly how Apple felt when Samsung entered the marketplace strongly. That's how every business feels when a competitor appears, and competition will always appear. They have to work more for the same profit until equilibrium is reached. That equilibrium is temporary and will change the moment market conditions change so it's only important in snapshot scenarios when doing comparisons and metrics.


Yea.... that's completely irrelevant to what I'm saying. How about actually reading what I wrote before commenting?
#34 Sep 25 2013 at 9:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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That example assumes that people aren't under bidding, which is blatantly and obviously false. This is proven by the AH history. If people weren't under bidding, then the prices would primarily be stagnant, because no matter if you're selling something for 1 gil, 100 gil, 1000 gil or 100,000 gil, the price will always say 100,000 gil, but it doesn't. It doesn't, because people will under bid as they see more items for sell.


actually, oddwaffle was fairly explicit. Your proposal removes the benefit of underselling a product. People will continue to underbid, but many more sellers will no longer undersell due to the forced nature of determining that for x senario (bid of exact listing price) y product sells first (product listed at x value instead of lowest listed value). People will continue to underbid, I have never even tried to say that they wouldn't. The problem comes from the sellers side as sellers realize that within a certain margin, there is almost no benefit to undercutting product on the market. Eventually, sellers will stop undercutting at all, then it won't matter how much buyers underbid, because they will never find product at anything other than the listed price.

Then what happens is a few sellers get together and buy out or force out those that still try to undercut the going rate. Once that is done, this oligarchy will then proceed to raise the going rate at a rate they think the market can sustain and eventually the product is selling for vastly inflated prices. That is the problem with your proposal. Sellers can continue to bid 900, but there won't be any RCB under 2000.

Quote:
LOL.. It actually does the exact opposite. It upholds supply and demand. People in this game believe that simply having a high supply in items AUTOMATICALLY = low demand. It is possible to have a high supply of items in high demand. Likewise, it is possible to have low supply of items in low demand.


Increasing or decreasing supply does not have any effect on demand what-so-ever. It does however, which you seem to be resisting quite strongly, have an effect on price. Namely, increasing supply will trend price down, where decreasing supply will trend price up. New sellers entering the market definitely and (what should be) indisputably should have a downward driving force on the price of goods in the market. That is where competition comes from. It isn't artificially created.

Going back to your proposal, this was what oddwaffle was trying to tell you. If 10 new sellers of RCB enter the market with a significant quantity of buns, it would follow that the price of RCB would lower. Not because demand has changed, but because there are just simply more RCB on the market. Your proposal would do much to stop this logical reduction in the price. So supply will stay high as the price stays fairly static. Eventually what will happen is the supply of RCB on the market will continue to grow as the same quantity are continued to be bought as the damand dictates and then there are so many RCB on the market that everyone starts getting them back.

Without your rule, the 10 new sellers enter the market and start selling their RCB for 500 gil. The first few will be sold at the same 1000 gil, but the price will start to drop as people realize that there are more RCB on the market. Because the price listed is allowed to remain fluid like this, eventually what will happen is those 10 sellers will sell all their stuff and either make more, or leave the market when they are done. Regardless, if more sellers remain in the market, what you could see is eventually RCBs are selling for 700 gil instead of 1000 as demand would eventually shift with lower prices. Sellers leave, price would stabilize at 800 gil, More buyers, 500 gil. This is what I was trying to say about balance above. It is ever unachievable because balance is constantly shifting in the economy.

Regardless, after all this, I realize that you don't necessarily have a problem with the AH per-se. Your problem with the system is that you don't think it is fair that someone can list an item at 500 gil and get 1000 gil out of it. Well I'll just have to say tough on that one, because it is a blind bid system. That is how it works. If that is not acceptable to you, I suggest you start bazaaring more often to stave of your rage at the perceived injustice of the system.
#35Almalieque, Posted: Sep 25 2013 at 9:31 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) As I said many times before, I get my stuff sold at full price by undercutting. I just can't, for the life of me, understand how this site became a honey pot of mislead self-proclaimed economists. This is a very simple concept to understand. Part of me believes that you all do understand, but are somehow scared that this post will transfer to reality.
#36 Sep 26 2013 at 1:55 AM Rating: Good
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Sorry I didn't make my example clearer. Let's revisit it with 1000g RCB, 1 old seller and a new seller wanting to enter the market. Lets assume the market will buy 7 RCB per 2 days so only 1 seller can sell his 7-slot AH every 2 days. If anyone put more than 7 RCB at 1000g then some of them will get returned.

With the current AH system, the new seller set a lower price than 1000g so he can sell faster. It's an even better incentive to sell lower if he can sell 1st AND get paid higher than he wanted. It's obvious that he is not going to set it to 1gil as he will lose money so he will set it somewhere higher than his material costs and worth his time spending making the RCB. The old seller will find out about this problem once his items get returned and wil set his price lower to match or exceed the new seller. The price will be adjusted once a buyer found out that there is someone selling lower than the 1000g point. More people will buy RCB and it will sell for more than 7 every 2 days. A 3rd player might even enter the market at the lower price too as long as he sees there is profit to be made. Eventually, the market clears when nobody wants to enter the market and the price is lowered to the point where people will make no economic profit (yes, it's a good thing and no they are not losing money, look up economic costs if you don't know what I am talking about).

With your proposal the situation will be different. Your systems put more power on the one putting the item 1st, not the one selling at lower price. The new seller will not be putting his goods for less than 1000g. Why should he put it any less? Since he knows he won't be selling faster than the 1000g guy. The only thing he can bet on is there is a chance that someone 'might' try to buy at a lower price AND people actually check the part where the price is lowered. This means the condition required for the price to be lower will be a seller willing to put a lower price, might not sell faster and suffering from lower profits compare to the current AH system. There is also a good chance that most of the new items will no be sold even at a lower price because the old seller is monopolizing the market. You can clearly see this by expanding the example. If the new seller put his goods on the 2nd day then he will not sell anything until after the old seller goods are sold. That means the new seller will pretty much waste 1 day sitting on his goods. Half of his items will get returned while the old seller will notice this once his items get returned after then 4th day. Both players will be frustrated and neither can do much if the buyers refuses to try and bid a lower price. This makes it extremely hard for new sellers to enter a market and force prices to go down.

Quote:

Not according to Supply and Demand. The problem with all of these self proclaimed Economists, is that high supply doesn't mean that demand is automatically low. That's why organizations such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, etc. will ensure that they have several copies of whatever they are selling in order to maximize their profits. Retailers, as a result, do not begin undercutting each other (at least to a significant degree as in game) in order to equally maximize their profits as well.


Um... you really REALLY need to take a course in economics. You either gave me a very wrong typo or you don't really understands how economics work. When supply changes, only the supply curve changes. Demand curve doesn't change when supply curve changes. If you don't really know that then there is nothing I can do but point you to some economics 101 book. When supply increases, you will have more goods than you can sell. It's natural that you will want to lower your prices so people will buy more so you don't have to throw away your goods. That doesn't mean people demand more stuff, you just have more stuff to sell.

In case you want to actually bring in real world example, people do undercut each other in the real world. Walmart is the best example as it tries to brutally lower its costs and undercut everyone else. When you don't see people undercutting you see a monopoly or oligopoly or firm with enough market power and product differentiation to set their own price. Microsoft OS aren't selling at $0 when it virtually costs $0 to produce extra copies? Try to find a legit copy of an OS that is exactly like Microsoft OS in every single way, including the colors and icons that can be obtained the same way Microsoft OS can be obtained. If you can't find it then Microsoft has brand power, market power and enough product differentiation to keep its price. There are other factors that can influence prices too but they are too advanced for someone without some economics background.
#37Almalieque, Posted: Sep 26 2013 at 3:28 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Read my posts? Of course people undercut each other, but there's a reason why every burger joint has a .99 menu. In FFXI land, that menu would .99 on Monday, .50 on Tuesday, .25 on Wednesday, .10 on Thursday, $2.00 on Friday, $2.50 on Saturday, $2.00 on Sunday and then back to .99 on Monday.
#38 Sep 27 2013 at 10:08 AM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:

Actually, it's natural to maintain high costs until sales drop.


Umm... no, it's maximizing profits not costs High costs means you make less money. It's written in eco101 in case you don't know. And in case you mean price it's not that either cause you want to maximize profits that means you might want to sell more goods at a lower price rather than few goods at a higher price - depending on where you are on the D curve.

Quote:
So, I ask again, how is the result any different than what happens now? That is, I place an item for sale, then everyone after me undercuts me and my stuff gets returned or I have to wait until all of the undercutts are sold.


The difference is that it forces you consider whether you want to risk your item not getting sold and undercut or lower the price. If you think you have enough demand then keep the price high, if you think you are losing money because of taxes and items not getting sold then you will keep your price low enough (until you have 0 economic profits) so you can actually sell your products.

And no, people aren't really stupid, they can be ignorant, gullible and lazy but rarely irrational when it comes to their money. They might see 10 items for sale but they might not check to see if some item are selling at a lower price or not. You can't expect everyone to be the same. Similarly, sellers will guess that the buyers might not check the price so they will just keep their price high as they only sell less and not faster with a lower price.

Quote:

Read my posts? Of course people undercut each other, but there's a reason why every burger joint has a .99 menu. In FFXI land, that menu would .99 on Monday, .50 on Tuesday, .25 on Wednesday, .10 on Thursday, $2.00 on Friday, $2.50 on Saturday, $2.00 on Sunday and then back to .99 on Monday.

People in the real world work in reasonable limits because money actually have value in the real world unlike in FFXI, where you can just buy more or earn a lot with little time and effort.


Umm... no. That piece of paper you called money in your pocket has value because there is demand for it. A hyperinflation will drastically drop the price of money (yes money has price in economics) and so will the value of your piece of paper. ANYTHING with demand has value even if it doesn't exist physically (emoney, bitcoins and gil) or might not even exist at all (dreams, futures and debt). Relearn your econ101 class if you have done so.

Quote:

Which only applies in FFXI, not in reality. The difference of millions made and/or up for sale will not affect the price of the PS3/xbox game, DVD, Blu-ray, etc., unless the supply is considered "low". Simply having more, doesn't AUTOMATICALLY devalue the price of an item. Why? Because the other half is demand, hence Supply AND Demand not Supply OR Demand.


I was referring to this and the other quote about microsoft (or software licenses) when I talked about your lack of understanding on supply and demand. The value of an item is the price that is dictated by the market, not what it costs to make it. When you have an increase in supply with the demand unchanged the price of the item will drop. When supply is low you will have the item selling at a high price. Examples would be the recent HDD price, PS3 and Xbox prices when they 1st came out on ebay.

Supply is not what a single firm can produce, it is what they are willing to make. Microsoft can make a billion copies of their OS licenses but they will only produce a couple million to meet the demand of their software. In a sense, they are a monopoly who set the price in such a way that they can maximize profits.

Quote:

Monopolies are entirely different scenarios that yield the same result in any economic scenario.


I am the only seller of drinking water in the world and I can set the price of $1000 per bottle and you will pay for it. I am the old internet provider in your area and you will pay me $100 per month for a 5Mbps DSL. It's not the same everywhere. Learn econ101.

Edited, Sep 27th 2013 12:09pm by Oddwaffle

Edited, Sep 27th 2013 12:14pm by Oddwaffle

Edited, Sep 27th 2013 12:15pm by Oddwaffle
#39Almalieque, Posted: Sep 27 2013 at 4:42 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Oddwaffle, is English your first language? Seriously, you're just duplicating my words as knowledge that "I don't understand". No wonder you think I need to go to ECON101, because apparently, you lack English 101 skills.
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