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Global warming is a crockFollow

#177 Dec 06 2006 at 9:54 PM Rating: Excellent
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paulsol the Flatulent wrote:
/jumps up and down at the back....
Yes, yes...

I'll tell you guys what. Find me some published studies concluding that there's no reason to believe that humans are accelerating the warming trend. Find me some papers reviewed by the scientific community that conclude that it's all natural and there's nothing much mankind could have done about it. Find me published reports in scientific journals which say that our contribution to global warming is insignificant.

Not blogs, not some guy's website, not your gut instinct -- find me something with some credibility amongst the guys with degrees and decades of experience in the field. Start finding that stuff and then there's a debate to be had.
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#178 Dec 06 2006 at 9:59 PM Rating: Good
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You're just upset because the warmer it gets, the more landscaping work there is to interfere with your posting.



#179 Dec 06 2006 at 10:06 PM Rating: Good
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Hehe. So. Like the science and conclusions in this article?

Quote:
What Mann claimed to find was startling: The late-20th century was unusually warm — warmer than at any time in the previous six centuries. (Later research by Mann extended the climate history back 1,000 years.) The reason? "It really looks like (the recent warming) can only be explained by greenhouse gases," Mann said then. His clear implication: The Earth's climate was changing dramatically, and mankind was responsible.


Lol. Apparently, he also missed the "little ice age" when drawing his conclusions.

Continue reading the story. It basically says that the data upon which the UN acted to declare greenhouse gas emissions to be the leading cause of global warming has never been released for peer examination. It's just been accepted as blanket fact because he told the UN and the UN decreed that it was true...


Are there lots of scientists who back up Mann? Sure. But not because they've done the research. They just assume he's right and move on from there.


There's a lot of scientists who absolutely do not believe this stuff (or at least not the conclusions Mann came to).

Like these guys

and these guys

and these guys

and maybe these guys too


Point being that the conclusions being parroted around are not suppoted by everytone.
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#180 Dec 06 2006 at 10:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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That article from 2003? Huh.
Scientific America (March 2005) wrote:
More recently, Mann battled back in a 2004 corrigendum in the journal Nature, in which he clarified the presentation of his data. He has also shown how errors on the part of his attackers led to their specific results. For instance, skeptics often cite the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming Period as pieces of evidence not reflected in the hockey stick, yet these extremes are examples of regional, not global, phenomena. "From an intellectual point of view, these contrarians are pathetic, because there's no scientific validity to their arguments whatsoever," Mann says. "But they're very skilled at deducing what sorts of disingenuous arguments and untruths are likely to be believable to the public that doesn't know better."
Issues in Science & Technology (Fall 06) wrote:
Continuing challenges to studies by climate scientist Michael Mann and colleagues by climate change skeptics in the House, led by Rep. Joe Barton (RTX), chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, appear to have fizzled after the release of a June 22 National Research Council (NRC) report that supported Mann's conclusions. Barton, however, has vowed to keep his committee actively involved in the climate change debate and has requested two new studies on research practices in the field.
Science (March 2006) wrote:
House Science Committee Chair Representative Sherwood Boehlert had requested the study in the wake of attacks on Mann's "hockey stick" temperature curve showing an abrupt, presumably human-induced warming over the last century. Mann made himself scarce throughout the proceedings, even abruptly departing as McIntyre stood to make a final comment. Others, however, had already provided independent support for temperature trends resembling Mann's, and Mann himself pointed out that he had sworn off the criticized analytical method years ago.
Science (Feb. 2005) wrote:
This article reports that for a decade, paleoclimatologists have combed through temperature recordslocked in everything from ancient tree rings to ice cores, yet they've failed to find a natural warming in the past 1000 years as big as that of the past century. Even as greenhouse skeptics revel in what they presume is the downfall of one of global warming's most prominent supports, paleoclimatologists have come up with yet another analysis. The millennial climate debate has revolved around the hockey stick record published in Nature by statistical climatologist Michael Mann of the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, and his colleagues in 1998 and revised and extended in 1999.
New Scientist (July 2006) wrote:
The NAS report says that the past few decades have been the warmest in the past 400 years and that it is "probable" that the last 25 years have been the warmest since AD 900. Sherwood Boehlert, chairman of the House science committee, requested the report in November 2005 in response to the political debate around the work of palaeoclimatologist Michael Mann of Penn State University at University Park. Mann's work examined average temperatures over the past 1000 years. When he plotted the results they showed that for the first 900 years there was little variation — like the shaft of a hockey stick — but that there has since been a spike of massive warming — the blade of the stick.
[...]
"The report concludes that the 'hockey stick' graph of global warming is real"
Nature (June 2006) wrote:
The academy essentially upholds Mann's findings, although the panel concluded that systematic uncertainties in climate records from before 1600 were not communicated as clearly as they could have been. The NAS also confirmed some problems with the statistics. But the mistakes had a relatively minor impact on the overall finding, says Peter Bloomfield, a statistician at North Carolina State University in Raleigh, who was involved in the latest report. "This study was the first of its kind, and they had to make choices at various stages about how the data were processed," he says, adding that he "would not be embarrassed" to have been involved in the work.


Edited, Dec 7th 2006 1:39am by Jophiel
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#181 Dec 06 2006 at 10:33 PM Rating: Decent
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Im not saying that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying all those scientists are wrong. ( tho If your recieving some of the pretty hefty research grants alloted to the subject, it sure isn't going to be in your interests to come up with a study that says, "actually theres no problem after all, why dont you keep next years grant, we dont need it now").

What I'm saying is that if its happening, and if we are hurrying it along in some fashion, then I think its time to start changing 'our' attitude to the environment as a whole. Starting at the bottom.

When we stop filling our oceans with plastic bags, oil, sewage and chemical runoffs from our agricultural habits. When we stop triple wrapping every little piece of disposable plastic tat we purchase. When we stop dumping nuclear waste all over the damn place (or making it into artillery shells), and when we stop treating our fellow inhabitants of the planet as nothing more than food or a nuisance to be killed off, THEN, and only then will the human race be sufficiantly prepared to take on the monumental task of doing something positive and constructive about potentialy harmful climate change.

Until then, all these 'studies', 'results', 'predictions', 'projections', 'protocols', and hysterical 'environmental experts' who are predicting disaster while spending millions of dollars on yet more studies and investigations, while actually achieving nothing in reality, are wasting their efforts on the limited attention spans that we as humans have for problems as large as imminent planetary meltdown due to climate change.

In my opinion it would be money and time better spent on changing our attitudes and methods of living on this 'ere planet, than giving it to an 'established scientific community', whose mission apears to be to tell us that we need to start planning for the apocolypse.

But I guess as usual, that theres not a much financial mileage in asking people look after their own particular local part of the world, as opposed to catastrophic predictions of the South Pole melting, and cessation of the Gulf stream as a climactic prime mover.....

Thats what I think anyway.

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#182 Dec 06 2006 at 10:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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I don't think anyone is arguing that "solving" global warming is the end-all of fixing the environment. It just happens to be the topic for discussion.

Edited just to wrap up Gbaji's claims via USA Today...
Gbaji wrote:
Continue reading the story. It basically says that the data upon which the UN acted to declare greenhouse gas emissions to be the leading cause of global warming has never been released for peer examination.
USA Today in Oct. 2003 wrote:
Mann never made his data available online — nor did many of the earlier researchers whose data Mann relied upon for his research. That by itself raises questions about the U.N. climate-change panel's scientific process.
The Nov. 13, 2003 edition of the USA Today wrote:
Corrections & Clarifications

Section: News, Pg. 14a

In an Oct. 29 Forum article about new research that challenges the findings of an earlier study on global warming, the writer said the data on the original study by University of Virginia assistant professor Michael Mann aren't available online. The data can be accessed at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MBH98/.
First off, it never said his data wasn't released, it said his data wasn't online.

Secondly, it was wrong to say that because his data was available online.

Edited, Dec 7th 2006 1:52am by Jophiel
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#183 Dec 06 2006 at 10:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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Nobody seems to get that the problem is with ocean surface temperatures. Not how hot it is in Topeka, or how cold it is in Des Moines.

Weather patterns start in the ocean. Coral reefs generate and feed a tremendous amount of ocean resources, including the stuff that a huge number of humans rely on for food. A few degrees off the norm can have a tremendous effect on weather patterns and on the health of the reefs.

There are good reasons to be worried about ocean temperatures, interesting Viking trivia aside.

Of course the 16th Century phenomenon was probably caused by all those burning witches, but that's beside the point.
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#184 Dec 06 2006 at 11:19 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
I don't think anyone is arguing that "solving" global warming is the end-all of fixing the environment. It just happens to be the topic for discussion.





Mmmmm....
Sure. But because I came in for some flak from my previous post on pg3, I was attempting to explain the reasons for my position on global warming, wich got confused by some, not for the first time, as believing that global warming shouldn't be something that we humans should concern ourselves with. Of course we should be concerned.

Im trying to think of a comparison for it.

Heres one.

Several years ago, I bought this old Enfield Bullet motorcycle. The plan was to start in the south of India, at sea level, and ride it to the top of the Himalayas (the Nubra valley in Himachel Pradesh The highest road in the world)and back again.

If I had had, on the first day, any idea of the difficulties and problems I was going to face in the process of dragging this underpowered/underbraked piece of Indian kak, accross the length of India, across deserts hot enuff to melt the tyres (seriosly!) thru cities that have more random traffic chaos than anywhere else i've ever been, across glaciers, thru freezing rivers and over mountain passes 5660 metres high, the punctures, the breakdowns, the cold, the heat, the hunger (yup)and all the rest, to get to within a gnats ******* of that little corner of the world where India China and Pakistan all meet, theres no farkin way i would have left the beach.

But because I set off, and took it all a day at a time, I not only made the journey there and back without falling under a truck, off a mountain pass or getting shot by a hyperthermic hypoxic border guard (oops!) I actually quite enjoyed (most) of it.

Same thing with global warming. Its just TOO DARN BIG for most people to even begin to know where to start. And all these govt. and official agencies havn't got a clue either. They're all standing on the beach in Karnataka still arguing if they should change out of their shorts and put a wooly hat on yet!

What we and they should be doing, is chucking a leg over, putting the spliff out and setting off on the trip. because if we don't start doing something, anything, soon, I fear it will be too late.


And the wheels are gonna fall off.


Metaphorically speaking that is.


Just in case anyone cares I got to that place on this map thats called no defined boundary.

Edited, Dec 7th 2006 2:23am by paulsol
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#185 Dec 07 2006 at 1:18 AM Rating: Decent
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I think the ongoing eradication of our oceans are a much more pressing concern anyway. Did you know for instance that seaborne algae produce most of the world's oxygen?

It'd be a very bad thing for oxygen breathing species for them to 'stop doing that' ^,^
#186 Dec 07 2006 at 2:40 AM Rating: Decent
Paulsol, as cool as your trip sounded, I'm thoroughly confused by your metaphor.

Previously, you doubted whether global warming was man-made, and whether it should be addressed at all.

Now, you seem to say that the problem is so big that governments don't know where to start and are arguing about something huge. And that the solution should be to just start acting now!

That's what I got from your post anyway.

Quote:
What we and they should be doing, is chucking a leg over, putting the spliff out and setting off on the trip. because if we don't start doing something, anything, soon, I fear it will be too late.


So, do you agree then that GW is man-made and that we can do something about it? And what do you think of something like Kyoto? Is it the start of the trip? Is it arguing about the wooly hat/swimming trunks?

I agree that we should act as quickly possible. I'm not sure we should just rush head first into measures to fight it without debate, because it is such an international problem which requires a concerted international effort.

The EU can do wonderful things on global warming, it will have 0 effect if the US and China don't follow. And we all know how slowly international problems of this magnitude get solved. And that's without going into the whole developped Vs developping countries debate.

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#187 Dec 07 2006 at 3:37 AM Rating: Good
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Thanks to Joph for coming along and doing all the footwork.

Allow me to just respond to Gbaji with a solid 'nyah nyah'.
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#188 Dec 07 2006 at 4:41 AM Rating: Good
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Everyone knows Kyoto is just a ploy to give third world countries a chance to catch up. Smiley: lol

Duh.

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#189 Dec 07 2006 at 7:26 AM Rating: Good
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Tare wrote:
Samira wrote:
True, true. Joph's Law it is: As an argument continues, the probability of a troll making fun of his opponent's post count when cornered and outgunned approaches one.


Smiley: lol
Law it is, then. Tricky, do you archive these somehwere?
#190 Dec 07 2006 at 7:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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bodhisattva wrote:
Thanks to Joph for coming along and doing all the footwork.
Gaining access to an academic journal search engine makes these debates so much more enjoyable.
Gbaji wrote:
Point being that the conclusions being parroted around are not suppoted by everytone
I never said they were. Nice use of the loaded term 'parroted' though. Are you basing that off of evidence or just because you think it'll discredit the vast majority of scientists who do agree?

I said, to repeat, that every major scientific institution to take a stance on global warming has agreed with the conclusion that there is a significant anthropogenic influence in the warming trends. I also cited an a study in Science showing that, out of over 900 peer-reviewed articles and studies regarding global warming, every article which took a stance on its causes (75% of them) either explicitly or implicitly agreed in an anthropogenic influence. Not a single study attempted to refute it.

Are there scientists who feel otherwise? I'm sure there are. There's scientists who put forth any number of theories and hold any number of beliefs. Are they in the majority? Not even remotely. Are their studies passing the review of the scientific community? According to Science, no and I bet their search engine access to peer-reviewed scientific study kicks my search engine's ***.

There's a big difference between "Not everyone believes" and "The disbelievers have as much traction as the believers do." And, regarding comments made that scientists are in it for the grants or whatnot, it would be up to you to provide evidence that all of these scientists and institutions are biasing their research for grant money. I find it slightly unlikely.
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#191 Dec 07 2006 at 7:34 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
There's a big difference between "Not everyone believes" and "The disbelievers have as much traction as the believers do."


Joph your ability to cut through a persons ******** and cleave right to the center of their faulty argument is not making gbaji happy, why do you have to ruin his good times you basement dwelling cyber bully, I expected more from you!
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#192 Dec 07 2006 at 7:38 AM Rating: Excellent
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bodhisattva wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
There's a big difference between "Not everyone believes" and "The disbelievers have as much traction as the believers do."


Joph your ability to cut through a persons bullsh*t and cleave right to the center of their faulty argument is not making gbaji happy, why do you have to ruin his good times you basement dwelling cyber bully, I expected more from you!


Your mistake is in thinking that a. it will even register to him that his argument is faulty or b. that he would ever, ever, EVER admit it if it did.

Nexa
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#193 Dec 07 2006 at 7:40 AM Rating: Good
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Nexa wrote:

Your mistake is in thinking that a. it will even register to him that his argument is faulty or b. that he would ever, ever, EVER admit it if it did.
It's not that his argument is faulty as much as you've just been brainwashed by the left and the liberal science community.

Sheep.
#194 Dec 07 2006 at 7:41 AM Rating: Good
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His mother told him to never question. His mother cured cancer, she must be right!

She is also probably in his freezer.
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#195 Dec 07 2006 at 7:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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Atomicflea wrote:
Nexa wrote:

Your mistake is in thinking that a. it will even register to him that his argument is faulty or b. that he would ever, ever, EVER admit it if it did.
It's not that his argument is faulty as much as you've just been brainwashed by the left and the liberal science community.

Sheep.


Did anyone define "science" or clearly identify what counts as "evidence" because I'm sure there's some ************ room there.

Nexa
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#196 Dec 07 2006 at 7:47 AM Rating: Good
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Nexa wrote:
Did anyone define "science" or clearly identify what counts as "evidence" because I'm sure there's some bullsh*tting room there.

Of course you would think that, because you don't understand the term as I'm using it, i.e. "She blinded me with science."
#197 Dec 07 2006 at 11:43 AM Rating: Decent
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Red wrote

Quote:

So, do you agree then that GW is man-made and that we can do something about it? And what do you think of something like Kyoto? Is it the start of the trip? Is it arguing about the wooly hat/swimming trunks?

I agree that we should act as quickly possible. I'm not sure we should just rush head first into measures to fight it without debate, because it is such an international problem which requires a concerted international effort.

The EU can do wonderful things on global warming, it will have 0 effect if the US and China don't follow. And we all know how slowly international problems of this magnitude get solved. And that's without going into the whole developped Vs developping countries debate.


What Im saying is that wether global warming is man made, being accelerated by man or nothing to do with us at all (and as you will realise by now, Im not absolutely convinced., wich is my prerogative after all)), rather than hanging around while the worlds governments fly around the world dicking about having talking shops, debating wether GW is a problem and what there is to be done about it. We as the crew on spaceship earth, need to put the problem in some sort of perspective.

You or I, as individuals, worrying about wether the melting of the Ross ice shelf is going to effect our daily lives is a thoroughly pointless waste of our time. And the incessant studies coming from the scientific community, aimed at the governments and big industrial concerns, predicting disaster, have little to no relevance to 'us' as individuals.

This overwhelming 'problem' that we are being faced with, is so overwhelming to each of us as individuals, it is allowing, even encouraging us to say, "the problem is too big for me! I'll wait until the govt. tells me what to do about it. and as long as 'they' are still undecided, I'll still keep carrying on wasting resources and dropping garbage wherever i feel like".

Changes in our behaviour as regards to our environment and climate, arn't going to come from waiting around for beaurocrats to tell us what to do. they have no 'imagination'. we all know that. WE need to drive the changes by our own individual behaviour and attitudes. (GM food is a fine example of the 'people' saying "we dont want it").

If we all wait around waiting for the decisions and plans to be handed to us, it WIL be too late. WE need to change.


By the way....what exactly do you propose (as an individual) propose to do about the melting ice caps, the more ferocious hurricanes of the Gulf of Mexico, or the typhoons of Japan?


Or are you still waiting for Mr Blair or one of his cohorts to come up with a useful solution to a problem that they know will come to a head (if at all) long after they have left office? Or are you going to do something that will make a difference?


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#198 Dec 07 2006 at 2:48 PM Rating: Good
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bodhisattva wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
There's a big difference between "Not everyone believes" and "The disbelievers have as much traction as the believers do."


Joph your ability to cut through a persons bullsh*t and cleave right to the center of their faulty argument is not making gbaji happy, why do you have to ruin his good times you basement dwelling cyber bully, I expected more from you!


Except that's not what Joph actually said originally:

Jophiel wrote:
Except that the conclusions of every major scientific body to study global warming disagrees with you.



Let's be fair here Joph. It's not "every major scientific body". It's every major scientific body that you agree with, which coincidentally happens to be only those that support the alarmist global warming theories. No matter how many scientists or organizations or papers I post, you'll dismiss them for one reason or another, pretty much all having to do with the fact that they don't agree with the standard consensus on global warming.

In any case, you didn't just say that the disbelievers had less traction then the believers. You said that they didn't exist.

"Traction" has nothing to do with scientific fact or validity. It just has to do with whether it's gained political popularity. By your logic, back in the day, Gallileo was wrong because his ideas didn't have enough "traction"... If it was a bad reason to support a theory back then, it's still a bad reason today.
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#199 Dec 07 2006 at 2:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
By your logic, back in the day, Gallileo was wrong because his ideas didn't have enough "traction".


Actually they did, among his peers. It was the doggedly conservative theocracy that spiked his work, not once but several times.

Not a whole lot different than the current Administration pressuring scientists to change their findings in order to bolster support for political policy, really. Matter of degree, you could say.

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#200 Dec 07 2006 at 2:58 PM Rating: Good
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+1 for Nexa I guess.
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#201 Dec 07 2006 at 3:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Let's be fair here Joph. It's not "every major scientific body". It's every major scientific body that you agree with
Ok, so list the ones which don't. Again, not some dude's website or blog but list the major centers of study in the field which disagree. Which major scientific organizations? Which governmental agencies? Which academic centers?
Quote:
No matter how many scientists or organizations or papers I post, you'll dismiss them for one reason or another, pretty much all having to do with the fact that they don't agree with the standard consensus on global warming.
I've asked you for peer-reviewed studies. So far, you've given none. Why peer-reviewed? Because that's the gold standard among modern scientific research. Not whether Gbaji agrees, not whether Jophiel agrees but whether the bodies of people who have devoted their lives to the field of science agree on.
Quote:
In any case, you didn't just say that the disbelievers had less traction then the believers. You said that they didn't exist.
Aside from being wrong, you have an excellent point. I guess.
Quote:
"Traction" has nothing to do with scientific fact or validity. It just has to do with whether it's gained political popularity.
Ah, yes... Your poor scientists who refute the notion of anthropogenic global warming are just sad martyrs nailed to the cross by the evil scientific conspiracy. The dearth of studies proving this isn't because of a lack of contrictory evidence, it's because it's all political. Honestly, doesn't the "political conspiracy" angle ever get old?
Quote:
By your logic, back in the day, Gallileo was wrong because his ideas didn't have enough "traction"...
Except that, as Samira points out, they did. And the ones refuting his notions were not refuting his body of scientific evidence on factual grounds but rather faith-based ones. So Gallileo doesn't really apply here. Also, Gallileo was trying to advance a new theory in the face of traditional resistance. Kind of like trying to advance a climate study just to have a bunch of people say "But the Earth is so big and we can't control hurricanes and once it snowed! So you have to be wrong!"

But I bet it sounded like a hum-dinger of an argument when you came up with it, huh? Hey! I believe that unicorns are to blame! Don't believe me? They didn't believe in Gallileo either!

Edited, Dec 7th 2006 6:32pm by Jophiel
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