I think everyone agrees more or less that the planet is heating up, at a very quick rate.
The only difference being that some are saying that it's man-made (90% of scientists), let's call them "man-ists".
Others are saying that it's natural, that it's just a cycle, and that it will on its own go down again (10% of scientists), in time. Let's call them "naturalists".
So basically, the choice is either to do nothing and hope (naturalists), or to take some action to curb down the release of objectively harmful gases into the athmosphere (manists).
Once again, this is just a question of the cost/reward ratio:
If you "naturalists" are right, then doing nothing is a decent option. Not a "great" one, since we're still releasing harmful gases into the air (and the rivers, the forests, and pretty much everywhere), but at least mankind is not immediately threatened with extinction.
If the you are wrong, on the other hand, then we are pretty much f
Ucked. We will have to suffer not only disastrous consequences of this global warming, but we'll also have to change our way of life extremely drastically and rapidly, at huge economic and general welfare cost. Lots of lives will be destroyed, not just human, but everything that makes our planet what it is will be gone. And our lifestyle will have to change radically to try and alter this phenomenon.
If the "manists" are right, on the other hand, then we need to take action now. You guys might not have heard of the
Stern Report, but it basically says that the cost of fighting global warming efficiently is tiny. Minuscule, roughly
1% of GDP. Doing this would ensure minimal effort for maximum protection, to take an advertising slogan. Not only that but, if we are still assuming the "manists" are right, it would save the planet, and our way of life.
Not bad, really.
If they are wrong, and we still do this, then we'll have spent 1% of GDP in order to make life a bit more pleasant. Cleaner air can't be bad. Not being so reliant on Oil from the ME can't be bad either. Finally realising that our planet is neither eternal nor immune to our actions, is cool too.
So there you have it. It's like Pascal's bet.
If you bet on GW being caused by Nature and therefore don't act, and you are right, you gain nothing. And, true, you don't lose anything either. If you're wrong, you've lost the planet and our way of life.
If you bet on GW being caused by Man and act, and you are right, you've saved the planet, and mankind, at minimal costs. If you're wrong, you've cut our dependency on Oil and the ME, and you've made the whole place cleaner, for quite a cheap price.
That's how I see it. I'm not a scientists expert on climate change, and neither are any of you. Honestly, none of us know for sure if it's man-made or not. But if you look at the cost/reward ratio, then it makes no sense whatsoever to be on the "nature-did-it" side. It only makes sense if you have a stake in the Oil industry. That's it.
So I'll go with 90% of the scientists, and the safe option to act now. If I'm wrong, the planet will still be cleaner, and at minimal costs. If I'm right, I'll have saved your ***.
If you go with the 10% and you're right, then nothing will have changed. But if you're wrong, we'll all be properly f
Ucked.
Seems pretty straightforward to me.
Edited, Dec 4th 2006 5:51am by RedPhoenixxxxxx