I had already kind of mentioned this in the thread about it, but the blog post talks about the release date of MoP and the Annual Pass subscription plan as a sign of things to come.
Essentially, it goes like this: We don't know how long until Mists of Pandaria is out. We don't know how far in development it is, or if an Alpha test has even started yet. However, if we went by Cataclysm's release date and point in development at this time... things don't look good. And if we go by what we've seen on MoP at Blizzcon, it's falling right in step with Cata.
MMO Melting Pot put it well when they said
Quote:
Blizzard have never managed to release an expansion in less than two years. Sure, they might have beaten their record, but their list of new content is … ambitious.
Not all of the art looks even close to finished. The Mists of Pandaria B-Roll looks pretty, but I’ve spent a lot of time staring at Blizzard art whilst making Machinima, and I’d be surprised if even all the scenes we’re seeing there – notably the Summit scenes – are release candidate art. If that’s what they’re showing off, it’s a good bet that the other art is even less finalised.
There are rumours floating around on the ‘con floor that Mists of Pandaria isn’t even in Alpha yet. The sources are off the record, the commenters are Random Guys On The Internet. And yet…
There are a lot of features that we haven’t seen anything of yet. Only one raid has even been named, and three new dungeons. That’s exactly the same number as were named at Blizzcon 2009, talking about Cata… which was 12 months away. Even by February of 2010, we knew a lot more about Cata’s dungeons and raids than we do about MoP’s now.
On that note – in general, MoP seems to be at about the same stage as Cataclysm was a year before release. At Blizzcon ’09, the only playable areas were the starting areas. Blizzcon ’11, the same. The same number of new raids and dungeons have been mentioned. Although many people are saying the art looks more advanced, to my eye – comparing with the archived coverage of Blizzcon ’09 – the art might well be at a similar stage.
Not all of the art looks even close to finished. The Mists of Pandaria B-Roll looks pretty, but I’ve spent a lot of time staring at Blizzard art whilst making Machinima, and I’d be surprised if even all the scenes we’re seeing there – notably the Summit scenes – are release candidate art. If that’s what they’re showing off, it’s a good bet that the other art is even less finalised.
There are rumours floating around on the ‘con floor that Mists of Pandaria isn’t even in Alpha yet. The sources are off the record, the commenters are Random Guys On The Internet. And yet…
There are a lot of features that we haven’t seen anything of yet. Only one raid has even been named, and three new dungeons. That’s exactly the same number as were named at Blizzcon 2009, talking about Cata… which was 12 months away. Even by February of 2010, we knew a lot more about Cata’s dungeons and raids than we do about MoP’s now.
On that note – in general, MoP seems to be at about the same stage as Cataclysm was a year before release. At Blizzcon ’09, the only playable areas were the starting areas. Blizzcon ’11, the same. The same number of new raids and dungeons have been mentioned. Although many people are saying the art looks more advanced, to my eye – comparing with the archived coverage of Blizzcon ’09 – the art might well be at a similar stage.
This is all calling up déjà vu, as this is pretty much falling in step with the 3.3 -> Cata release schedule. Which, let me restate, is not a good thing. Remember the massive content drought? Remember raiding ICC for twelve freaking months? And ICC had 12 bosses. Dragon Soul has only 8!
The point I'm getting at is that we're currently set up to face a huge slump in subscriptions once again as people do all the content and are left with nothing for six months leading up to the release of Mists of Pandaria. We're going to be facing the stagnation of WoW, once again.
Let's look at the data. Cataclysm was announced at Blizzcon 2009, on August 21. F&F Alpha began on May 3, 2010. Release wasn't until December 7, 2010. That's roughly 15 months between announcement and release. Going by the same number for Mists of Pandaira... we're looking at a release date of January 2013. Obviously they would try to hit the holiday season, so let's say 4th Quarter 2012. Do you want to be raiding Magma-jellyfish Iron Chin (Deathwing) for a year?
But maybe Blizzard's learned their mistake. Maybe MoP is actually much further along in development than Cataclysm was at this point in time. Hell, maybe Mists of Pandaria is already in Alpha (though I suspect something would have leaked out, NDA or no at this point). Maybe they'll announce a release date next month for summer 2012.
But then that's where the Annual Pass comes in, and this is what worries me. Why would Blizzard offer such lucrative benefits to signing up, including giving out a free game that is planned to make them a lot of money (Diablo 3) and guaranteed beta, something they know many WoW players would completely froth at the mouth for?
Two answers present themselves immediately. They either
- Know that they are about to lose a lot of money and want to recoup that loss elsewhere (From either Diablo 3 or Heart of the Swarm bombing), OR
- They foresee a major drop in subscribers within the 12 months of the program, and want to keep them (unsubs caused by competition or stagnation, or a combination of)
Maybe this is all paranoia. Maybe they are offering the Annual Pass because they just want to fight off competition. God I hope I'm wrong.
But everything I've seen is pointing towards bad, bad things. The repeating of mistakes, and doing nothing but Dragon Soul for twelve months, which is something I'm probably not going to stay subscribed for. If this is the case, and I really hope its not, I'll probably be off checking out the competition, maybe come back when MoP is out. Maybe.
So what do you think? I'm trying not to be a naysayer here, foretelling portents of doom and boredom. I just see these as the signs, and I don't like them.
Edited, Oct 23rd 2011 11:25pm by IDrownFish