Mmorpg's First Impression Updated 07/03/2013Follow

Blizzard converted a modest, but loyal, RTS crowd into 12 million subscribers to WoW. Most of those people hadn't even heard of the original Warcraft, let alone played it (hell many people over here probably don't know what I mean when I say RTS for that matter... but everyone knows WoW). These are the footsteps Yoshida is following in. If he can take a modest, but loyal following of Final Fantasy fans and get them into an exceptionally approachable game that their friends and family can easily get into themselves, maybe he won't get 12 million subs, but it could potentially be enough of a following to breathe easier. The question is, does this formula from 2004 work in 2013 or have things changed too much for it to make a difference?



I should point out the million mark was reached (nearly reached, whatever) with a limited set of closed beta keys, not all of which were consumed, and not everyone who wanted one got one. Let's just see how popular the unrestricted open beta is, first.

I'd be most excited by Sony's pledge that anything playable on the PS4 will also be playable via remote plan on the Vita.

That would have been such a cool feature to have around during the heyday of FFXI.

I don't see why not the touch screen wouldn't be used. Diablo 3 is using it for drag and drop interfaces simulating mouse.

Since when is a million players worldwide, in >1 platforms, a "WOW Killer"?

SWTOR (Excuse me, taking a break, have to laugh here) "wanted to have" 2 million subscribers, and was actively promoted as "WOW Killer" "The Next Big Thing" "If Star Wars Can't Do it, Nobody Can", etc.

Well, this game had numerous problems, ranging from a bad, bad game engine to absolute lack of support (unless you believe that critical bugs resulting to entire raid parties being...killed ought to be fixed in 1-2 months after discovered. While Blizzard and any respectable developer would hotfix them within mere days).

You cannot fathom that a game can do reasonably well and maintain a player base of several hundred thousands, reaching a million.

Yet EVE Online (which in my view is a very niche, very complex to get into game, however CCP games is eternally grateful for stats like this:



...and continues polishing and adding content to the game in perpetuity) could maintain the interest of several hundred thousand players, without offering the mainstream accessibility of WOW or the fully voiced quests of SWTOR.

I'm not daring to say that beta phase 3 applications are an indicator of active players. They certainly are not. However, approaching a million beta applications (this does not include "given away keys") does certainly mean that you can expect a X% of these players to play in the end. It'd be quite different -and hard- to gauge popularity if beta applications numbers were never disclosed, or were 250,000 worldwide.

It's not my job to make sales and subscription forecasts for ARR, although I do have the skills to do it if I had access to the commercial data SE has.

So, as a completely rough estimate, I'll take:

300-500,000 Japan players (all platforms)
200-300,000 North America, Europe, Rest of World players (PC)
200-250,000 North America, Europe, Rest of World players (PS3/PS4 in the future)

These numbers are including players I'd expect to stick around, mind you. "Initial sales" or "1st month free" players could be more by 30-40%.

Oh, and - In late 2003, when XI launched in Europe, it was nowhere as accessible as it could be. Neither broadband / decent PC's were considered the majority these days (a decent PC cost most definitely over $1,000 without a monitor), nor was XI exactly 'forgiving' to players.

Heck, I loved its visual style and world much more than I did WOW's, but never managed to level above level 20-23 or something, and gaining EXP solely by having a full group and taking on random mobs around the map was not exactly my -or many others- cup of tea.

So don't make comparisons under that light. I still find it miraculous that XI maintained its clientele as long as it did.

Edited, Jun 29th 2013 4:57am by Sovjohn

While perhaps not a unique perspective, at the time of XI's launch, I helped run a FF-themed MUSH (basically a text-based roleplaying hub). We had our share of people that felt XI "didn't count" because it was an MMO and you had to pay the monthly sub. This was also the time where the only other real mainstream MMO alternative was Everquest. So I feel XI "failed to grab" in part because people weren't so susceptible to the idea of P2P gaming. Keep in mind, this was also the time where stuff like Warcraft or Starcraft were free to play on Battle.net, which served as an excuse for "Why can't they do that?" even then. Also had a RL friend who, even though I had the game installed on his PC, wouldn't pick up XI for the above despite watching me play and explaining things to him. I find out later he got into WoW, but I'd also say the accessibility played a role there even though I would've had no issue in letting him try a mule of mine.

Nowadays, I think brand loyalty will hold a bit more sway than it did then, but XIV also has the black mark of 1.0. You'll still have people who staunchly don't support 2.0 because of it. You'l have some who just want SE to fail because they're SE and not remaking FF7. You'll also have plenty of people who just don't care, which will mean advertising will be the determining factor. I'd say loyalists have already made their decision, and if it's to not play, it might not be entirely because they don't want to. Time requirements, other game interest, or just being burnt out on MMOs is possible. So, yeah, I'm waiting to see what kind of advertising campaign SE rolls out.

And FFVII sold 10 million because it was the first ps1 FF. And what was the first FF on snes? I guess ARR could beat FFXV to release on PS4 then it will sell 9 million too just because it will be on the system first.

I think FFXIII sold well because it was a large wait from FFXII and regardless of our opinion. People liked it and hated it. No game sells 9 million on name alone, not even Final Fantasy.

Edited, Jun 29th 2013 5:52pm by sandpark

Having a Vita, I think it could be useful for small, routine things (maybe a short solo quest or checking up on your sales), but communication will be a big problem, even with a touchscreen keyboard. It will be tough to play and talk at the same time.

FFVII was the best rpg that released on the PS1 at that time and maybe the lifespan. Whether or not it is the best FF ever is subject to arguments. You can read countless articles that FFVII is the rpg that took rpgs to a brand new place, especially in the production values department. Now since then rpgs have surpassed FFVII. It's the equivalent today of like playing FFXV at the release of PS3. That's how far ahead the FF was in terms of other console rpgs at the time ut released.

FFVI is my favorite FF. But I don't think it would even sell 10 million if it released today without pushing production values.

You probably blame the release of FFVII on the lesser sales of FFXII. But that just isn't the case. The truth is while FFXII was a great game and had forward thinking ideas. It's being different from the core titles 1-10 is what made that happen.I think if FFXV releases first on the PS4 it might sell more or less than FF 16. But I imagine it being different is going to spawn a love and hate relationship with it as well. This series just can't get a break. Damned if they stick the core and damned if they stray too far. In the end, they keep selling like hotcakes even through all the controversy they bring.

The same would happen if Dragon Age runs until Dragon Age 10. Everyone has their favorite.

Most people can't name a character from Xenogears or Star Ocean (any of them really) or Suikoden. (Don't worry Ostia, I'm sure you can, and I'm sure you can even Google the ones you can't... it's not the point).

But Cloud, Septhiroth, Tifa, and Aerith are still popular icons to this day. I still see them show up in popular art or cosplay, and they're instantly recognizable in a way that the characters from the other series are not. I think FFVII left its mark on gaming culture a lot more than most games ever will, and that's really where you can tell the difference with which of these games were legendary and which were simply good. You don't find the answer in sales numbers, it's in who remembers the experience and for how long.

He wasn't talking about popularity. He was talking about his perceived quality of the game.

People use this example a lot, but Justin Bieber is one of the most recognizable artists in the world but not necessarily 'the best', and that could also apply to Final Fantasy (VII) and other RPGs. So, just because a lot of people haven't played Suikoden II on the PS1 doesn't necessarily mean that Final Fantasy VII is better, just because people know the names Cloud, Sephiroth, Tifa, etc.

I've played them all, and I consider myself a fan of high-quality products...

Any reasonable human being could understand why any of the three would be someone's favorite, in terms of not only sentiment but quality.

Suikoden, Xenogears, and Final Fantasy VII are three completely different games... and three very high quality games at that. I for one choose not to select a favorite. I love all three of them for different reasons.

Philosophical and mental flexibility are a true sign of intelligence, if you can't understand why others feel a different way from yourself perhaps some introspection is in order.

FFVII doesn't really need defending. It's massively popular because it's a great game, period. If you're not a huge fan of it that's fine, but trying to convince people that it isn't a quality game is silly. Its success and influence speaks for itself.