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New BS Recipes Unrealistic?Follow

#1 Apr 22 2009 at 7:34 AM Rating: Good
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I'm just browsing the new patterns added in 3.1 for blacksmithing and I've come to conclusion that they are going to be unrealistic to make and sell, or be a worthy upgrade for the blacksmith.

For example, take your Spiked Titansteel Treads, at 3 titansteel bars (approx. 330 gold), 4 saronite bars (approx 10 gold) and a frozen orb (approx 50 gold) gives us a grand total of 390 gold for the components. They sell on my server for around 800 - 900 gold a pair.

Quick reference spiked titansteel treads stats:

1541 Armour
+80 strength
+67 stamina
+35 critical strike rating

Now take your Battlelord's Plate Boots, at 10 titansteel bars (approx 1100 gold), 25 saronite bars (approx. 62 gold) and 6 runed orb (approx. 15000 (median Alla price) gold (well for 18 emblems of conquest why wouldn't they be!)), gives us a grand total of 16,162 gold, just for the components.

Quick reference battlelord's plate boots stats:

1614 armour
+69 strength
+126 stamina
Red socket
Blue socket
Socket bonus +6 strength
+49 critical strike rating
+48 haste rating

Clearly they are an improvement on the spiked titansteel treads, but at what cost? Who's going to pay that amount of gold for a crafted item, when you can gear run Naxx for boots which are better than the crafted titansteel treads.

I know as the runed orbs become more popular the price will come down, but by how much?

Is my theory wrong?
#2 Apr 22 2009 at 9:49 AM Rating: Good
The runed orbs are raid drops, right? That being the case, the lost opportunity cost of using them really isn't going to be taken into consideration when a BS makes this item for himself or a guildy.

As for selling them on the AH - shrug - wait a few months and the market will be flooded with the orbs and then you can sell 'em.
#3 Apr 22 2009 at 11:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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1982 Hyundai vs. 2009 Ferrari.


Some people are content to spend a nickle on a car if it does the job.

Some people are willing to spend a lot for exotic & shiny.

Some people are willing to spend a lot if it is the absolute best and will make their life easier. Bonus points if its shiny and exotic.
#4 Apr 22 2009 at 1:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Runed orbs aren't going to go down for months and months, not until people get all crafted up and start farming Ulduar. The new enchants take like 6+ of those things.

For some reason, raid drops and the like always seem to settle down around 200g each on my server. It will be awhile though.

I'd agree with the price concern, but it's too early to rely on that pricing to stay. I still can't figure out why people would spend 16k on a mammoth, but evidently there is alot of gold floating around out there.
#5 Apr 23 2009 at 1:22 AM Rating: Default
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Are the runed orbs raid drops? If that is the case then I can see the price dropping. If they remain an 18 emblem of conquest purchase I can't see it.
#6 Apr 23 2009 at 5:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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They drop from bosses in Ulduar, but I don't see the prices coming down anytime soon. My guild has no plans to be selling them anytime soon, at any rate.
#7 Apr 23 2009 at 5:34 AM Rating: Good
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Archfiend Goggy wrote:
Are the runed orbs raid drops? If that is the case then I can see the price dropping. If they remain an 18 emblem of conquest purchase I can't see it.


I believe they drop like badges, one off of each boss.

These are the shiny new items. It's similar to Sunwell recipes. Sunmotes only came from SWP, so you were out of luck unless you bought them at high prices. What these will do is, in a few months when there is nothing left to buy with Conquest emblems, people can spend them on runed orbs.

I highly doubt the price for these items will drop below 5k, however.
#8 Apr 23 2009 at 9:11 PM Rating: Decent
Just look at history folks - the special items that would only drop from heroic or raid bosses had their prices through the roof at the start - take frozen orbs - 1k or higher starting prices, now just a few months later they're not even clearing 100g.

They're 18 emblems each and drop from raid bosses - sure, the guilds are going to keep all of theirs for chanting and making stuff for the next few months, but the reality is that peeps are already getting emblems and as soon as they've gotten everything they want with them you can bet that they'll start spending emblems to put the orbs onto the AH.

Now toss in the inevitable orb drops from 10 man pugs (yes, I know most guilds are getting their butts handed to them but apparently the first boss is easy enough, plus there's always trash farming for drops like in Mt H and Sunwell) and rest assured that the price will go down soon enough.

History has already proven it.
#9 Apr 24 2009 at 2:34 AM Rating: Decent
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<double post Smiley: glare>

Edited, Apr 24th 2009 10:35am by Goggy
#10 Apr 24 2009 at 2:34 AM Rating: Decent
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Don't get me wrong, I firmly believe the 2.5k runed orb price will drop. What concerns me is the whole material costs of the items.

I suppose I'm just QQ'ing about BS items being unsaleable, but people actually buy the spiked an tempered sets, the new items seem to have a massive raw material increase for not too much stat value increase. In fact the main increase appears to be in stamina. I wonder whether this is an acknowledgement of the increase in damage in Ulduar?
#11 Apr 24 2009 at 6:46 PM Rating: Good
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Archfiend Goggy wrote:
Don't get me wrong, I firmly believe the 2.5k runed orb price will drop. What concerns me is the whole material costs of the items.

I suppose I'm just QQ'ing about BS items being unsaleable, but people actually buy the spiked an tempered sets, the new items seem to have a massive raw material increase for not too much stat value increase. In fact the main increase appears to be in stamina. I wonder whether this is an acknowledgement of the increase in damage in Ulduar?


While they are not a major increase you have to realize that people will tend to spend incredible amounts for miniscule upgrades. For instance take enchanting look at the difference in cost from 63 spell power to 50 spell power. While this may not seem worth in many top end people flock to it.

Really when the only upgrades you can get are tiny upgrades you will get them if you want to be the best.
#12 Apr 25 2009 at 5:48 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
While they are not a major increase you have to realize that people will tend to spend incredible amounts for miniscule upgrades. For instance take enchanting look at the difference in cost from 63 spell power to 50 spell power. While this may not seem worth in many top end people flock to it.

Really when the only upgrades you can get are tiny upgrades you will get them if you want to be the best.


Except that these are far from being the best. If these were better than anything Ulduar could give, you'd have a point.
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#13 Apr 26 2009 at 10:05 PM Rating: Good
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idiggory wrote:
Quote:
While they are not a major increase you have to realize that people will tend to spend incredible amounts for miniscule upgrades. For instance take enchanting look at the difference in cost from 63 spell power to 50 spell power. While this may not seem worth in many top end people flock to it.

Really when the only upgrades you can get are tiny upgrades you will get them if you want to be the best.


Except that these are far from being the best. If these were better than anything Ulduar could give, you'd have a point.


It depends. The LWed mail belt and boots are both best-in-slot for hunters, for example (by miniscule amounts perhaps, but that's assuming you've gotten the second-best-in-slots to drop and had enough DKP/won the roll). I'll certainly be getting the belt made ASAP, but not buying it off the open market.
#14 Apr 27 2009 at 9:56 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Really when the only upgrades you can get are tiny upgrades you will get them if you want to be the best.


You're forgetting about/ignoring peeps that will view that stuff as huge upgrades due to having gone straight to 80 with little to no instances run - they'll go for stuff like that as they'll see that they aren't upgrading it any time soon, plus, it gives them solid gear for when they get inspected for pugs and what-not.
#15 May 15 2009 at 5:20 AM Rating: Decent
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Oki-doke looks like a BS on TH got the Belt of the Titans recipe.

They were charging your mats + 200g. I've noticed WoW Reader data has made it to Alla for this item now, median AH price 20,000g Smiley: eek

Lets hope the recent post about the possibility of more abundant runic orbs will bring this down a bit.
#16 May 17 2009 at 5:25 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Lets hope the recent post about the possibility of more abundant runic orbs will bring this down a bit.


Simple economics my friend - when demand outstrips supply then price goes up. When the price is high that attracts competitors into the market - ie/peeps will be willing to burn their badges for the orbs in order to make cash. When competition increases then price decreases.
#17 May 18 2009 at 6:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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The expensive mats used for high-end epics and crafted raid gear's nothing new, the materials have instead been simplified; look up the mats for Sulfuron's Hammer, Heartseeker, Arcanite Champion/Reaper, and such things. Instead of the huge variety of materials, however, instead things have been focused and simplified. If you and your friends can do the content, and your gathering professions are high enough, then for the most part there's no problem getting things made, but now instead of materials you have to go through four different zones with rare components and terrible drop rates, things have been streamlined very well, and now materials are easy to gather while you're doing other things (herbalism/mining in Wintergrasp, for example).
#18 May 22 2009 at 7:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I've noticed WoW Reader data has made it to Alla for this item now, median AH price 20,000g Smiley: eek


It's also only seen 3 prices at all for that price. Click details.

That's hardly a baseline for pricing mats.

It's a sellers market, and I'm sure someone will pay that much for it... Just not me.
#19 May 24 2009 at 11:02 PM Rating: Decent
Alla/WoWhead/whatever AH medians for stuff like that are pretty meaningless. Those median prices are best applied to commonly available items, and crafted items that require materials that can only be obtained from current top end raiding content aren't exactly what a reasonable person would call "commonly available". The fact that the people accumulating the orbs/emblems right now are using the lion's share of them to upgrade their own toons means that the already relatively rare supply is kept under tight controls.

In short, expecting to be able to buy crafted epics requiring materials from current raid content for anything short of your first born, your soul, and your arm, leg, and left ******** is pretty unrealistic. 9-12 months from now when the top guilds are progressing through Icecrown Citadel hard modes and everyone else is still plugging away through weekly Ulduar/easy mode IC farming runs you'll still be paying out the *** for crafted epics from Ulduar if you can't farm the components yourself. It'll just be the difference between epic flight and a traveler's tundra mammoth.
#20 Jun 07 2009 at 1:53 PM Rating: Good
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Runed orbs are down to about 1300g on my server currently. They drop off some bosses in Ulduar 25 man and can be bought with 18 EoC. So yeah, they are slowly going down, but not in a hurry. I'll probably get 6 of these this week when I farm the 2.000 gold I'm short at the moment so I can get an upgrade for my naxx25 boots.

About the items being expensive and not really much better than naxx25 gear (the tanking belt and boots far outstrip anything naxx25 has to offer btw), I don't really see your point. They might be expensive, but hell, you are getting a BiS (or near) item for GOLD, which you can start farming in Durotar. And you can get these items without setting a foot in a raid. Ever.

Not a bad deal for a lot of people who don't have the time to commit to raiding yet would like to have some items to show for they wow time IMO.
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