A Problem in the Lower 60Follow

Of course, the flip side to this is that for those farming sub-60 mats, the AH is delivering much higher prices these days.

Not broken. The economy takes care of itself. I've noticed that spamming trade chat with WTB on some of these mats pretty consistently results in an offer, at hefty prices. As demand goes up, the void will be filled.

As I was finishing this magnus opus I realized that I had certain items in mind and I had not clearly expressed that. I am
not looking at anything used in leveling a trade skill. That said you are missing my point somewhat. As I said I am not
talking about all mats. The easy ones like herbs, metals, skins, etc. are not all what I am concerned with. Let me give an
example; there is a Horde quest in Ashenvale that requires a Deadly Blunderbuss to complete and which has a nice blue armor
as a reward. The gun had disappeared from my server AT ANY PRICE until I decided to make an effort to supply them. At the
price I charge I am not getting rich but I think its a worthwhile thing to do. But I do not think my attitude is all that common.

If you are charging a price that a newcomer can not hope to meet and which will not sell consistently on the AH we have a
problem. That's practically the definition of broken. Catering to old players with lots of gold does not address the problem
at all. And spamming the trade channel wastes a lot of time unless you have a lot of it to spare, which very many players
do not.

If you have studied economics, and I have, you would know that at the extremes supply and demand break down as a viable
system*. What I am trying to convey here is that I am afraid that the population on vanilla wow has dropped so much that
we are nearing such a point.

The newly higher prices (at least those I am familiar with) are still not high enough to drag people back to the lower 60
imnsho. YMMV. And even if it did that would still leave the new player fubar'ed which is a large part of what I am trying
to fix.

My next to the last point; you mentioned that when demand picks up a new supply will emerge. My entire premise is that we
are heading towards a permanent fall in demand for some items because of shrinking population in vanilla wow.

Finally, ime people with high level chars who are leveling alt's do things somewhat differently than newer, poorer players.
For example a new miner may well be gifted with a 32 slot mining bag from a player's main. That player will never be a
customer for anything he can be twinked with. So a large part of the potential market of level 1-59 characters is actually
non-existant.


*inelastic demand/supply

I think we are pretty much in agreement. The DK has had exactly the effect you describe. And of course there is a very
good chance that Blizz will repeat this experiment in future.

One thing I neglected to mention is the effect of the 30% reduction in xp needed to level. That means faster progression
and consequently fewer (non farming) drops. So that reduces supply directly and may discourage people from spending since
any item purchased will be obsolete much sooner.

If I am going to play to make money why would I go to Vanilla WoW? I can make more money doing dailies or for that matter
farming Northrend or Outland where I can frakking fly! Farming Vanilla WoW is incredibly much slower than any place where
I can fly. Its not time/cost effective. The only reason to drop down is competition. If for the sake of argument I can not
compete in Northend I can easily drop down to Outland and still make more money than I can in the lower 60. There's not
many people playing on those Outland levels on my server now that the DK wave has passed.

But as you have correctly pointed out demand is the key factor. This comes from 2 groups obviously.
1) new, poor, players and,
2) old players making new alts and twinking new player friends.

The new poor players who can not afford high prices will not be part of this. So they won't be adding to demand.They are
pretty screwed. Otoh the old player can and will add to demand IF they continue to make alts and bring in friends. And
frankly I simply can not see that continuing for much longer. At least at this pace.

As you mentioned this is a by-product of all of the "obsolete" content in the game. This is one of the worst if not the
very worst things Blizzard does with the game.

Fret not - the farmers will return for one simple reason - profit.

If no one is out in old content farming stuff then that creates an open market - people will fill it again once they've had their fill of leveling alts, clearing zones and knocking out achievements.

Yes for crafting materials. No for rep items and other items of the sort. Get a hold of some Dark Iron Residue and try to sell it, its near impossible. Although achievements creates a small demand for low level reputations, its not much.

Crafting materials will always be in demand. So long as people continue to level up and restart crafting professions, the demand will be there.



Same question, just leading with the DK start @ 55. DKs will level their professions as well. The crime would have been if Blizzard gave all DKs the choice of two lvl 300 crafting/gathering professions, but they didn't. While they aren't as invigorating to the low level materials market as starting at level 1, they are still buying/selling low level materials to level up professions.



New players are always coming into the game, and people are always leveling new alts. Supply will remain until you can do a /who barrens and find nobody there, IMO. Sure, the population in vanilla WoW zones has dropped considerably, but its to be expected.



Its absolutely ludicrous to think that lvl 80 players are going to go back to their old mithril routes and start farming that for gold on any kind of regular basis. The only time lvl 80 characters will go back to farm low level items is when they wish to supply their own demand(ex: DK leveling up BS).



Go check out thorium and mithril ore prices on your server and tell me there isn't a demand for it. When demand = 0, so does price. These items are higher in price than ever before. Thorium is going for anywhere between 50 and 100 gold per stack on my server.

The items that demand is extremely low are items that are uneeded for powerleveling professions. Low level shards for Enchanting are a good example. Radiants are still in need because fiery is a great weapon enchant while leveling alts. Glowing and under(forget the name)? They sell for almost nothing on my server, 3-5G for a full stack most of the time, while a stack of dust is worth the same or more.



That weapon can be made by any engineer, and it is quite easy to change raw materials into the needed item. Therefore, demand can shift from the weapon itself to materials quite easily. Sure, you might never find any on the AH, but gather the materials, find a helpful engineer, and you're done.

By making the gun and supplying it at the AH, you're just creating an easier venue for people to obtain it. You're not creating a new market that makes it possible for players to obtain said item. You're just providing a service that saves time.



What is "enough" for farmers or customers? Is it when rare items like truesilver or silver can't be found on the AH, or regular ores like mithril/thorium? So long as the market continues and items are bought/sold, there is enough of each.



As have I. You're basing it on inelastic demand/supply, which is completely wrong. Prices in the WoW economy ARE somewhat elastic. Nobody is going to pay 150G per herb of low level items(per herb, not stack). There are boundaries of what people will pay, and demand is therefore elastic.

Really, the market is functioning as intended. New players aren't poorer now than before, they can be richer now because of higher prices.

Bayeaux I did not claim inelasticity as a causation here. It was just an example of
when supply and demand break down*. In order for supply and demand to work properly
you must have a market with enough buyers and sellers. At present there are in many
cases (nowhere near all) not enough in the lower 60. We both seem to think that
anything that is a skillup will continue to be available. That leaves a hell of a lot
of items that once were reasonably easily available that are no longer. I feel their
absence greatly diminishes the enjoyment of the game. YMMV.

It seems to me that you are suggesting that in time people will;
1) return to playing vanilla wow level (1-60) characters,
2) return to farming the lower 60.

*another example is buying up other people's low priced goods in order to prop up a price
for your higher priced goods. Technically a monopolistic practice and verbotten in RL.
Again demand and supply break down. This particular example is a minor problem afaik and
not what I was trying to talk about. It just illustrates the point.

At present it is clear that there are fewer players in the lower 60. I see nothing that will
cause that to change. On the other hand I think that you do. Only time will tell. But for
what its worth I hope that I am wrong.

Farmers are another matter. Your answer clearly shows that you actually agree with the position
that most pre-WotLK farmers will not return to farming the lower 60 to make money. Farming for
an alt or power-leveling a new craft being separate matters which have a small impact on the
supply side of the market. That leaves only the new players to be your farmers. Unless the prices
for TBC or WotLK goods drop though the floor those two places are where they will be farming given
a choice. Especially once they can fly. And besides most of them don't have the experience to
always recognize what is somewhat valuable.

One thing I thing many of you are underestimating is the effect of 30% faster advancement. Imo it
is profound.















Edited, Feb 9th 2009 10:36pm by JDLKY

1) You asked for examples. here are two items that have disappeared;
a) 20 slot herb bags.
b) weapon chains (both types).





Yes people will continue to make alts. The question is will they make them and play them at or near the old rate. Right now
at least that it is not the case and I would have thought that it would have returned by now if it was going to do so. And
of course people with new alts will be spread over 10 more levels of play now. That means lower population density (except
in the new content of course).

Let me reiterate we are not talking about gathered herbs, mined metal, skinned hides and/or leathers, or anything else
which is used to advance a profession efficiently.

I have done several /whos in the Barrens and Hillsbrad on my Horde majority server and the numbers are about a third of what
they were 4-5 months ago. The only argument here that I think you can make is that its too early to tell and obviously I
feel somewhat otherwise.



I should have been more clear that the effect that I was alluding to regarding faster leveling was in regards to new
players and NOT merely new characters. I hope that is clearer now.

Finally it seems to me that you have concentrated on the demand side of the argument. Can you give me a reason why people
would sacrifice income by farming the lower 60? Even at todays prices you can make more money per hour in the BC or WotLK
content.