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Omnibus Politics Thread: Campaign 2016 EditionFollow

#1 Sep 18 2015 at 7:11 AM Rating: Excellent
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Because the other thread needs to be kept clean for discussions on police raids, celebrity wackiness and the occasional Gamersgate report from the last remaining Gamersgaterguy.

Vendors to Walker's floundering campaign are reporting that they're owed over $100,000. Guessing Walker might be the next one out of the ring, following Perry's dropout. There's candidates polling worse but I don't think that Jindal, Pataki, et al bothered putting together as much of a campaign as Walker did. Supposedly he's pulling out of other states and putting everything into Iowa.

Edited, Jan 8th 2016 12:59pm by Jophiel
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#2 Sep 18 2015 at 8:13 AM Rating: Good
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Campaign 2016: Watching Paint Dry Edition!
Or: Still Gonna Be Bush vs Clinton II Championship Edition Alpha 3 EX

Jophiel wrote:
Vendors to Walker's floundering campaign are reporting that they're owed over $100,000.
Should write checks like Gingrich last cycle.
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#3 Sep 18 2015 at 8:48 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'm not entirely convinced it'll be Bush. I mean, if I had to put money on one of them that's who I'd pick but I wouldn't feel really confident about it. If this field doesn't narrow, with the proportional delegate awards they pushed for last cycle, this primary is gonna go on forever.

Walker reminds me of athletes who excel at their tier but then go to college or go to the pros and are just out of their depth. Maybe Walker is one of the best politicians in Wisconsin, but he's not apparently ready for a national stage. Also, through no fault of his own (I'm guessing) one of his eyes is lower than the other one giving him a perpetual derp-touched look. That can't be helping.
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#4 Sep 18 2015 at 9:05 AM Rating: Good
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Virtually the whole field is people just not ready for the national stage. How did Carson and Fiorina even manage to show up? Did the GOP just decide that qualifications were unnecessary? Then on the other side it's Crazy Uncle Sanders shaking his fists angrily at the clouds.

It's like the worst election cycle ever.
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#5 Sep 18 2015 at 9:11 AM Rating: Excellent
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Well, Carson once criticized Obama at a prayer breakfast so... I guess that's all you need?
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#6 Sep 18 2015 at 9:39 AM Rating: Good
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I think my favorite Carson quotes are "Taking Advanced Placement History prepares you to join ISIS," "Getting shower raped in jail proves being gay is a choice," and "Veterans dying waiting on medical help from the VA is a gift from God."
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#7 Sep 18 2015 at 10:38 AM Rating: Good
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lolgaxe wrote:
It's like the worst election cycle ever.
I don't know about for you guys, but for us up north, our's sure as **** is.


Edited, Sep 18th 2015 1:50pm by Uglysasquatch
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#8 Sep 18 2015 at 11:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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This election Preseason is probably the best I've seen in a while.

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#9 Sep 18 2015 at 1:22 PM Rating: Good
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If I had to put money down, I'd probably bet on Rubio or Bush. Fiorina would make an interesting VP candidate, but I don't think GOP Primary voters are truly ready for a female presidential nominee.
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#10 Sep 18 2015 at 1:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, I'm guessing Rubio if donors and power brokers start defecting from Bush. Still Bush for the first choice but I'd hedge my bets with Rubio.
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#11 Sep 18 2015 at 3:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Yeah. I was firmly seeing this as Bush or Walker a couple months ago. But Walker has not impressed at all on the national stage, while Rubio was good in the first debate and very very good in this latest one. I'd argue he came off as the most presidential, and certainly most prepared of all those on the stage. Fiorina looked good (and was quite prepared), but I suspect her positives mostly come from surprise at how well versed she was in political matters, given that she's not a politician. Certainly, the contrasts between her and Trump were super obvious during the debate. Trump was chomping at the bit to jump in during the first third, when it was mostly bashing and baiting, but was remarkably silent except when called upon when they got to substance. I'd say this leads to him dropping precipitously, but then I expected that after his mediocre performance in the first debate, and that didn't happen, so I'm being a bit more cautious in declaring his imminent demise this time around.

Bush did well enough, certainly got the biggest applause response (but to be fair, it was a friendly crowd for him), but I don't think he's been able to really pull ahead (and away from his own name-baggage). He does seem to be doing the "slow and steady" approach. Might work well for him, assuming Trump flames out at some point, but might also backfire if a younger and more spirited candidate (like say Rubio) can navigate around Trump *now* and gain some ground while not racking up too many negatives along the way. It'll be interesting to watch.
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#12 Sep 18 2015 at 4:24 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Vendors to Walker's floundering campaign are reporting that they're owed over $100,000. Guessing Walker might be the next one out of the ring, following Perry's dropout. There's candidates polling worse but I don't think that Jindal, Pataki, et al bothered putting together as much of a campaign as Walker did. Supposedly he's pulling out of other states and putting everything into Iowa.
Another reason why I believe the primaries should be held within a one week period. I'm not a big Perry or Walker fan, but money shouldn't be a reason why they are out and people like Carla, Carson and Cruz are still in.

Demea wrote:
If I had to put money down, I'd probably bet on Rubio or Bush.
Based on today, I would guess Bush. It's sad that people who could actually pull Democratic support, Kasich and Petaki, aren't been seen as serious candidates.
#13 Sep 18 2015 at 4:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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If the primaries were all held at once, Walker would be more screwed. If he can't afford to compete in three states at once, he sure can't compete in fifty. At least, as is, he can try to turtle out a win in Iowa then use the momentum there to rebuild his campaign.
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#14 Sep 18 2015 at 5:16 PM Rating: Good
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Listening to a couple news reports, a few were saying that Carly Fiorina "won" that debate. I found that a bit surprising. Maybe I wasn't paying attention at key moments? Cause she seemed pretty lack luster, something about a family member with a drug problem, a few attacks on Trump about his bankruptcies, but that's nothing new or really all that "win" worthy. And attacking Trump because he said something stupid is like shooting fish in a barrel...
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#15 Sep 18 2015 at 6:12 PM Rating: Decent
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TirithRR wrote:
Listening to a couple news reports, a few were saying that Carly Fiorina "won" that debate. I found that a bit surprising. Maybe I wasn't paying attention at key moments? Cause she seemed pretty lack luster, something about a family member with a drug problem, a few attacks on Trump about his bankruptcies, but that's nothing new or really all that "win" worthy. And attacking Trump because he said something stupid is like shooting fish in a barrel...


She did surprisingly well, but again I think that's because most people aren't that familiar with her. And, of course, because she is just that much massively more educated on political issues (and can speak about them well) than the other two "outsiders", Trump and Carson. I don't think that translated to "winning the debate" though. Everyone else (who wasn't one of the aforementioned outsiders) was also able to speak intelligently about a variety of political issues, especially foreign policy (where Carson and Trump just seemed lost). So it's not like she stood out among them. We just expect longish term politicians to know this stuff, and expect an outsider to not.

Oh. Christie also looked pretty good. Forgot to mention that. He was far more engaged than last time around, and got some good points in. I'm still pretty sure that the US just wont elect a fat man to be president. Although I noticed that he's either looking slimmer, or he was very clever in his clothes choices, since he didn't look nearly so obese while at the podium compared to how he usually looks.

As to the idea of holding all primaries in a few weeks, as mentioned, that just wont work. It's actually a good thing to have a longish process. You want to give the voters time to make as informed a choice as possible. Also, as a couple people have mentioned, it's a money thing. Based on how candidates do in early primaries affects donations to their campaigns (that whole momentum thing). If you had all the primary votes in a short amount of time, only those with big up front money behind them could have any chance of winning. And this would minimize the degree to which the voters actually have a say in things versus the money people. With a longer primary season, the voters influence the money. In a really short season, it's entirely the other way around.

Edited, Sep 18th 2015 5:14pm by gbaji
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#16 Sep 18 2015 at 8:33 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
"(she) can speak about them well"


For a woman, amirite? *ducks*

In all seriousness though, I dislike F as a failed CEO that she is. And she did not do badly. I was mildly impressed.

In my opinion, Rubio did really well. Christi and Bush were depressing in their defense of post 911 US actions.

I was expecting a lot more fireworks than I got though.

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#17 Sep 18 2015 at 8:38 PM Rating: Good
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I tuned in late, so I must have missed the Kim Davis questioning, but apparently one of the lesser talked about runners said she was wrong and compared her beliefs that the rule of God is over the rule of Law to those of Iran.
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#18 Sep 18 2015 at 10:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm guessing that was Pataki. At least he's previously said that she should follow the law and that her beliefs didn't supersede the law.

Fiorina was also involved at Lucent during its period of rapid expansion on the back of shaky vendor financing gimmicks which helped lead to its collapse. Driving past the old Lucent complex these days should give anyone local pause before considering her for any executive position.
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#19 Sep 19 2015 at 2:28 AM Rating: Good
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TirithRR wrote:
Listening to a couple news reports, a few were saying that Carly Fiorina "won" that debate. I found that a bit surprising. Maybe I wasn't paying attention at key moments? Cause she seemed pretty lack luster, something about a family member with a drug problem, a few attacks on Trump about his bankruptcies, but that's nothing new or really all that "win" worthy. And attacking Trump because he said something stupid is like shooting fish in a barrel...

Think that was in response to pot being a gateway drug straight to heroin. Because, you know, that is exactly like what happened to her child who died from that hard stuff. You know, alchohol and prescription medicine.
#20 Sep 19 2015 at 5:49 AM Rating: Excellent
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Trump vs Sanders. Sanders wins.
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#21 Sep 19 2015 at 6:30 AM Rating: Decent
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xantav wrote:
TirithRR wrote:
Listening to a couple news reports, a few were saying that Carly Fiorina "won" that debate. I found that a bit surprising. Maybe I wasn't paying attention at key moments? Cause she seemed pretty lack luster, something about a family member with a drug problem, a few attacks on Trump about his bankruptcies, but that's nothing new or really all that "win" worthy. And attacking Trump because he said something stupid is like shooting fish in a barrel...

Think that was in response to pot being a gateway drug straight to heroin. Because, you know, that is exactly like what happened to her child who died from that hard stuff. You know, alchohol and prescription medicine.


I always said that we should ban alcohol.
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#22 Sep 19 2015 at 9:31 AM Rating: Decent
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angrymnk wrote:
xantav wrote:
TirithRR wrote:
Listening to a couple news reports, a few were saying that Carly Fiorina "won" that debate. I found that a bit surprising. Maybe I wasn't paying attention at key moments? Cause she seemed pretty lack luster, something about a family member with a drug problem, a few attacks on Trump about his bankruptcies, but that's nothing new or really all that "win" worthy. And attacking Trump because he said something stupid is like shooting fish in a barrel...

Think that was in response to pot being a gateway drug straight to heroin. Because, you know, that is exactly like what happened to her child who died from that hard stuff. You know, alchohol and prescription medicine.


I always said that we should ban alcohol.

We tried that once, but too many white people like alcohol. So we banned marijuana on the basis of the darkies instead.
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#23 Sep 20 2015 at 9:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debates didn't seem to move the needle at all:
Political Wire wrote:
A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll finds Donald Trump continues to lead the crowded GOP presidential field with 29%, followed by Ben Carson at 14%, Carly Fiorina at 11%, Jeb Bush at 8%, Ted Cruz at 7% and Marco Rubio at 7%. No other candidates gets more than 3% support.

Interestingly, nearly a third of Republican voters now say that they expect Trump will be the eventual nominee.

A new CNN/ORC poll finds Trump leading with 24%, followed by Fiorina at 15%, Carson at 14%, Rubio at 11%, Bush at 9%, Cruz at 6% and Mike Huckabee at 6%.
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#24 Sep 20 2015 at 9:23 AM Rating: Good
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Yeah, all Trump has to do to get the rest of the conservative bloc to accept him is to stay on top long enough. His primary strategic weakness is a culling of the herd of the other rep. candidates. If say, we lost a large chunk of the field to dropouts or direct action, his candidacy potential would look very different. With each passing day, however, he accumulates more legitimacy, so the establishment is on a clock to quash the ambitions of the most ambitions of the party of ambition. Not an easy task for GOP Central Command, but if they thought the situation became dire enough they could get pretty creative with their forms of bribery, if they got a consensus from their benefactors.
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#25 Sep 21 2015 at 10:32 AM Rating: Excellent
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Walker is polling below 1% -- /sadtrombone

Someone elsewhere made me chuckle by pointing out his resemblance to a certain involuntary astronaut.
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#26 Sep 21 2015 at 11:22 AM Rating: Good
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I don't think he looks like Joel, but he does have that same lost look on his face. Smiley: laugh
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