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#1452 Aug 03 2015 at 7:04 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
If Biden runs, I'm going to assume that he's serious about running. Now-deceased son on his death-bed, begging him to run, etc. Plus Biden's ran several times before so I can't imagine this time would be just for funsies.
I can't imagine Biden running unless Hillary falls hard in the election. He would be the next credible person, outside of Warren.

Side note- Notice how the GOP ACA replacement never seen the light of day after the SCOTUS ruled in favor of the administration? Just further evidence that the GOP doesn't and never had an actual plan, but was merely relying on the SCOTUS.
#1453 Aug 03 2015 at 9:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, Biden can't wait for Clinton to "fall" before starting to build a campaign. He'd have to build a campaign now to challenge Clinton and hope that she falls. Campaigns need staffers and offices and people hustling donations and people going around with petitions to get your name on the state primary ballots and all that stuff. Not things you can knock off at the last minute.
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#1454 Aug 04 2015 at 5:16 AM Rating: Default
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I'm aware of that. That is why he has to start talking to people now. The Don has shown how the prep is overrated. If the support is there, in this weak field, it won't be hard to go from 0 to 60 in a short amount of time. Losing to Bernie Sanders as a sitting VP is the epitome of embarrassment. Once people realize that more than 5 states vote, the math will support the fact that he can jump in midway and still win.
#1455 Aug 04 2015 at 6:52 AM Rating: Excellent
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Almalieque wrote:
I'm aware of that. That is why he has to start talking to people now. The Don has shown how the prep is overrated.

Trump has spent a chunk of money already hiring staffer sin early states and putting together a campaign. He's probably spent more than others on equivalent campaigns since he literally put it together by just dropping a lot of cash around, a luxury Biden doesn't have. Trump has also been in the campaign for a month or so now whereas Biden has yet to announce.

You saw the effects of late entry and small campaign operations last cycle where you had GOP candidates taking a good portion of the popular vote in states where they hadn't filed for a full slate of delegates due to time and expense. Heck, you saw it in 2008 when Clinton (who had expected to clear the field by Super Tuesday) hit states where her campaign hadn't gotten a full slate of delegates on the ballot because they hadn't expected it to be competitive at that point. That's not something you can just buy at the last minute, even discounting filing deadlines.
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#1456 Aug 04 2015 at 7:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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Non-election related, gas is down to $2.38 around here. What's up with that? I thought the big surplus had been used up and a lot of these fracking operations were winding down because it wasn't profitable so the glut was unlikely to re-fill itself.
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#1457 Aug 04 2015 at 7:36 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
What's up with that?
That evil Obama is being fired so all is going back to rainbows and puppy dog tails.
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#1458 Aug 04 2015 at 8:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Non-election related, gas is down to $2.38 around here. What's up with that? I thought the big surplus had been used up and a lot of these fracking operations were winding down because it wasn't profitable so the glut was unlikely to re-fill itself.
Someone said something around the announcement of the Iran deal that it would likely mean gas prices would fall, possibly below $2 around Christmas. Maybe they were right.

Now if only I could remember who it was that said that. I think I heard it on the radio.
#1459 Aug 04 2015 at 8:25 AM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, but the Iran thing hasn't been approved yet.

I had actually heard the opposite -- that the deal wouldn't likely affect prices much because of the time it'd take Iran to get rolling again and general production manipulation across OPEC.
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#1460 Aug 04 2015 at 8:49 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
I had actually heard the opposite -- that the deal wouldn't likely affect prices much because of the time it'd take Iran to get rolling again and general production manipulation across OPEC.
I'm not putting too much stock in what I heard. For all I know, it was the late night min-wage disc jockey that said it and not a quote from a news segment or something. I just vaguely remember hearing it on the radio.
#1461 Aug 04 2015 at 9:33 AM Rating: Excellent
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Well, you at least have the advantage of gas prices dropping some 30-40¢ in the last couple weeks to pretend that you're right Smiley: grin
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#1462 Aug 04 2015 at 9:37 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Non-election related, gas is down to $2.38 around here. What's up with that? I thought the big surplus had been used up and a lot of these fracking operations were winding down because it wasn't profitable so the glut was unlikely to re-fill itself.
You're buying Canadian gas at 75% of its value.
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#1463 Aug 04 2015 at 10:03 AM Rating: Excellent
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And... uhh... what's-his-face (RDM?) the angry Canadian said that you'd be selling all your oil to China...
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#1464 Aug 04 2015 at 10:06 AM Rating: Good
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I thought Ugly was the angry Canadian.
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#1465 Aug 04 2015 at 10:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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Rdmcandie... that's the guy. I think he also said that France led the campaign to intervene in Libya because Libya wouldn't buy/sell oil in US dollars but used Euros instead.

He has some interesting ideas about oil.

Edited, Aug 4th 2015 11:24am by Jophiel
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#1466 Aug 04 2015 at 11:36 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
He has some interesting ideas about oil.
The shakiness of my information notwithstanding, I think he gets his information from the bottom of a bag of weed.
#1467 Aug 04 2015 at 1:46 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Trump has spent a chunk of money already hiring staffer sin early states and putting together a campaign. He's probably spent more than others on equivalent campaigns since he literally put it together by just dropping a lot of cash around, a luxury Biden doesn't have. Trump has also been in the campaign for a month or so now whereas Biden has yet to announce.

You saw the effects of late entry and small campaign operations last cycle where you had GOP candidates taking a good portion of the popular vote in states where they hadn't filed for a full slate of delegates due to time and expense. Heck, you saw it in 2008 when Clinton (who had expected to clear the field by Super Tuesday) hit states where her campaign hadn't gotten a full slate of delegates on the ballot because they hadn't expected it to be competitive at that point. That's not something you can just buy at the last minute, even discounting filing deadlines.

Trump has not spent much of anything relative to his earnings. Of course he spent money on a staff, but doesn't need to spend money for attention.

The Democratic field is weak. If Warren and Gore were running, then you would have a point. When your best choice is B-San, the field is wide open. No one sees him as a serious candidate, so the likelihood of every DEM who want to run for president, but not go against Hillary, coming out of the woodwork would dramatically increase.

The take away, same with the Fox News forcing candidates to appeal to the whole country, is that the first states do not determine the presidency. As long as we allow them to, they will.
#1468 Aug 04 2015 at 1:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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I... have no idea what point you're trying to make.

I'm saying that a campaign needs an actual infrastructure for logistics. Not attention, not media cycles, not debates -- you need actual people working to meet the material goals required by the states to be eligible for the ballot. That means that you need volunteers, you need paid staffers to coordinate those volunteers, you need places for those people to meet and desks for them to sit at, etc. You also need actual executive level campaign staff for media management, ads, opposition research, polling, etc. You can't decide a month before a primary to run for office because the eligibility date will have passed. You can't decide a week before the date because you won't have time to coordinate the petition requirements to meet eligibility, etc. You can't decide to start hiring upper level staff at the last minute because other campaigns have already picked up the quality experienced people (this is a worse issue on the bloated GOP side). Even when you have an actual campaign, people manage to ***** this stuff up; you're not going to half-ass it in the 4th quarter and still have a campaign.

Biden's window is closing. You can't just wait for someone else to implode and then jump in the pool, you need to have your feet in the water well in advance.
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#1469 Aug 04 2015 at 2:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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Trump's masterful trolling continues to astonish me. "Why, yes, shutting down the government is a perfectly cromulent means of defunding Planned Parenthood!"

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#1470 Aug 04 2015 at 2:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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Samira wrote:
Trump's masterful trolling continues to astonish me. "Why, yes, shutting down the government is a perfectly cromulent means of defunding Planned Parenthood!"

I like it. If we cut off their food stamps and Obamaphones long enough, they'll eventually start killing and eating one another instead of fucking and getting abortions all the time.

Rich people, naturally, will still be able to afford food and "women's health clinics".
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#1471 Aug 04 2015 at 2:19 PM Rating: Excellent
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Certainly murder and cannibalism are preferable to lower-cost mammograms. I don't think anyone here will argue against that.

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#1472 Aug 04 2015 at 2:36 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
I... have no idea what point you're trying to make.
Biden's window is not closing. This field is so weak that he can indeed (along with others) wait until Hillary implodes and still win (with proper planning).
#1473 Aug 04 2015 at 2:50 PM Rating: Good
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Not without an apparatchik apparatus.
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#1474 Aug 04 2015 at 2:54 PM Rating: Default
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How about a hyperbolic time chamber?
#1475 Aug 04 2015 at 2:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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The logistical window is closing. He has to file on time. He has to hire staff. He has to come up with an explanation for those plagiarism problems that have dogged him in the past.

If NO ONE else were running on the Dem ticket, he would still have to do those things.
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#1476 Aug 04 2015 at 3:00 PM Rating: Default
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Samira wrote:
The logistical window is closing. He has to file on time. He has to hire staff. He has to come up with an explanation for those plagiarism problems that have dogged him in the past.

If NO ONE else were running on the Dem ticket, he would still have to do those things.
What is the deadline to file?
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