He'll lose re-election this November
I really don't think he will, actually. This is one of the most interesting races this year as far as polling modeling goes and I think the commonly used turnout assumptions are wrong. We'll see, I suppose.
I'm skeptical but the Chicago Tribune released a poll yesterday with Quinn up 11% (48-37) over Rauner. Previous polls had Rauner ahead by around 4%. Scenario was about the same as the 2012 presidential elections: Rauner is viewed as more capable to handle the state finances but has a deep deficit in the "understands my problems" and "controlled by special interests" style categories. Plus an absolutely dismal 12% support from Chicago voters and barely cracking a majority in the collar counties.
Still, give me another poll or two before I'm convinced.