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#302 Mar 25 2014 at 7:13 PM Rating: Decent
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Uglysasquatch wrote:
Holy sh*t! Smash was right. gbaji is living in a world from 30 years ago.


Lol! Didn't even pay attention to the time period of the data source. It's unlikely that these sorts of statistics will have changed much though. I just grabbed the first source I ran into.
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#303 Mar 25 2014 at 7:16 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
It's unlikely that these sorts of statistics will have changed much though
How much can anything change in only thirty years?
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#304 Mar 25 2014 at 7:34 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
It's unlikely that these sorts of statistics will have changed much though
How much can anything change in only thirty years?


Broad social statistics like "what percentage of violent crime is committed by someone the victim knew?" isn't likely to change much. And any changes in the stats we do see are more likely the result of methodology/reporting changes than actual changes in the society itself.

In any case though, the idea that having a gun is more likely to result in harm to the person owning it is not supported by any rational examination of any data we have. The data shows that firearms are more likely to be used to defend someone from a crime than to be used to commit a crime. And not just by a little bit, but by large amount (again, the low ball figure still comes in at around 2x the rate).
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#305 Mar 26 2014 at 4:30 AM Rating: Good
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How much domestic abuse goes unreported and how much child abuse never sees the light of day. Theft with in families goes unreported as well since it is family, you may not tolerate being rob by your family but many people do and will keep covering for the black sheep till they go up state for another crime.
#306 Mar 26 2014 at 5:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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RavennofTitan wrote:
How much domestic abuse goes unreported and how much child abuse never sees the light of day. Theft with in families goes unreported as well since it is family, you may not tolerate being rob by your family but many people do and will keep covering for the black sheep till they go up state for another crime.



That may all be true; but you can't use estimation and supposition in place of facts. Surveys are also not be the best way to accumulate data about crime statistics, but it's better than spitballing what random family members might do.

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#307 Mar 26 2014 at 5:46 AM Rating: Default
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Gbaji wrote:

Lol! Didn't even pay attention to the time period of the data source. It's unlikely that these sorts of statistics will have changed much though. I just grabbed the first source I ran into.


http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fvs02.pdf ; page 13, Table 2.1 wrote:
46.1% stranger.


I can almost always find a contrary statistic to anything 100% of the time, 50% of the time.
#308 Mar 26 2014 at 6:35 AM Rating: Decent
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Broad social statistics like "what percentage of violent crime is committed by someone the victim knew?" isn't likely to change much


The abstract to the study you're citing reads: National Crime Survey data for 1982-1984 indicate that 46 percent of violent crimes (rape, robbery, and assault) were committed by total strangers.

You aren't more likely to the victim of violent crime by a stranger. You never have been. Crime rates overall have dropped significantly in the time frame since this report, at about twice the overall rate for "stranger" crimes.

So, yes, shockingly that rate did change, quite a bit. It's almost as if you know nothing about statistics or social science. Sorry, that's not fair, it confuses the meaning of the word "almost".

The most likely way to be assaulted (battered, really, but I'm just going to use assault going forward), by far, in the US is to be in a relationship with a man who hits you. BY FAR. Not even vaguely close. The most likely way to be raped? You guessed it. Be in a relationship with a guy who rapes you. Child abducted? Father, 2/3rds of the time. Being assaulted by a partner is so prevalent it has to be codified as a separate crime to have any chance at analyzing "other assault" statistics. Guess who's most likely to get shot? Can you guess?

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#309 Mar 26 2014 at 6:38 AM Rating: Decent
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How much domestic abuse goes unreported and how much child abuse never sees the light of day. Theft with in families goes unreported as well since it is family, you may not tolerate being rob by your family but many people do and will keep covering for the black sheep till they go up state for another crime.

Who cares. Really. How many people don't report car breaks? Someone broke a window of our car and stole a laptop once. I didn't report it. Why would I. "Hello, Boston PD?" "Yes." "Someone stole a laptop out of my car." "Ok. Did you call us for some reason or.....?"

Some people don't report crimes, some people report crimes. All we can work with is what we know. Statistic about rapes not being reported or any other crime having a giant "secret victim" base are ********* They're an emotional appeal for money when actual statistics aren't sensational enough.
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#310 Mar 26 2014 at 6:40 AM Rating: Decent
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Point is that uses of firearms for self defense fall pretty consistently at about 1 million per year.

Yeah, but as we all know, you can kill just as many people as efficiently with a toothpick and a rubber band, so really, that should be enough of a threat to scare criminals away.
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#311 Mar 26 2014 at 8:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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I would also point out that the 80s in particular saw an upsurge in gang activity with the advent of crack cocaine. By definition, that would increase stranger and acquaintance crime, bloating those stats for that period of time. As Smash pointed out, violent crime has been on a steady decline since then.


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#312 Mar 26 2014 at 9:57 AM Rating: Excellent
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Samira wrote:
As Smash pointed out, violent crime has been on a steady decline since then.
Video games and online pornography: Keeping kids inside and out of trouble since 1988.
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#313 Mar 26 2014 at 11:32 AM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:


This is why I've had an extensive discussion with Hannah about exactly what will happen should I burst in on her and a partner at some future date. Firstly, I'll have a huge trash bag full of mayonnaise. This might seem comical at first glance, but you've clearly never attempted to have a physical altercation with a 250 lb 6'2" 50 year old while you were covered in mayonnaise. Then, obviously the pop rocks ceiling trap comes into play and, I assume, you can intuit the rest.



The beauty of this plan is that it works equally well for a boyfriend or an attacker.

Of course in some families so does a gun, I suppose.


Kinky.
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#314 Mar 26 2014 at 2:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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someproteinguy wrote:
Samira wrote:
As Smash pointed out, violent crime has been on a steady decline since then.
Video games and online pornography: Keeping kids inside and out of trouble since 1988.

That doesn't make sense. All my life I've been told that playing video games will turn me into a killer and watching the **** makes me a violent rapist. Smiley: frown
#315 Mar 26 2014 at 2:46 PM Rating: Good
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#316 Mar 26 2014 at 3:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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xantav wrote:
someproteinguy wrote:
Samira wrote:
As Smash pointed out, violent crime has been on a steady decline since then.
Video games and online pornography: Keeping kids inside and out of trouble since 1988.

That doesn't make sense. All my life I've been told that playing video games will turn me into a killer and watching the **** makes me a violent rapist. Smiley: frown
Ahh that's the best part.

You see when you spend all day in the house playing video games and looking at pictures of boobies you're much less likely to commit or be the victim of a stranger on stranger crime. Because, let's face it, you don't really get to see other people. This means that when you do go nuts it's more likely going to be a family on family crime, which is much less likely to be reported (assuming you can stop short of the killing spree part). So you see a nice reduction in the apparent crime rate, and a big reduction in stranger on stranger crime. All the while everyone starts hiding ugly secrets and having psychological problems years later.

The end result is that these days you have much more to fear from crazy uncle Larry taking you to the beach on a Saturday, and much less to fear from random people wandering around your neighborhood. Because outdoors is for losers anyway.

Edited, Mar 26th 2014 2:02pm by someproteinguy
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#317 Mar 26 2014 at 6:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Samira wrote:
I would also point out that the 80s in particular saw an upsurge in gang activity with the advent of crack cocaine. By definition, that would increase stranger and acquaintance crime, bloating those stats for that period of time. As Smash pointed out, violent crime has been on a steady decline since then.


Also, as I attempted to point out earlier, some of this is methodology changes. I'd have to go back and look at the methodology for the older data, but the new data lists as "non-stranger" anyone who is a "neighbor". Depending on how loosely that's interpreted, that could mean that the gang banger who lives on your block counts as an acquaintance rather than a stranger, where in the older data set, he may not have been.

In any case, let's not forget the original context. The claim made was about the likelihood of a firearm being used by someone you know against you versus you using it to defend yourself. The argument was that since most violent crime is committed against family or acquaintances, that those people would just use your gun against you. The problem is that even if we can make an argument for this when looking at "all violent crimes", this doesn't hold true if we limit things to gun crimes, and when we limit the "friend and family" to people who would have physical access to your firearm, the numbers slant even more.

It's easy to get lost in the stats, but at the end of the day, the claim that by buying a gun you're only arming those most likely to commit a crime against you is clearly not true.
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#318 Mar 26 2014 at 6:35 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:


Broad social statistics like "what percentage of violent crime is committed by someone the victim knew?" isn't likely to change much


The abstract to the study you're citing reads: National Crime Survey data for 1982-1984 indicate that 46 percent of violent crimes (rape, robbery, and assault) were committed by total strangers.


*cough* Read more than the abstract. They make a distinction between "strangers" and "total strangers".

Quote:
You aren't more likely to the victim of violent crime by a stranger. You never have been.


You are "more likely" to be the victim of a violent crime by a stranger, than by a member of your own family, and certainly "more likely" than someone living in your own home (who, say would have access to your firearm, which is what started this particular discussion). You have to play games with the statistics to make the kinds of claims I'm responding to.
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#319 Mar 26 2014 at 6:42 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
It's easy to get lost in the stats,
You tend to be Exhibit A of that claim.
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#320 Mar 26 2014 at 7:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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I can believe that Gbaji's risk of violent assault at the hands of someone he knows are greater than his risk from random strangers.
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#321 Mar 26 2014 at 8:58 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
I can believe that Gbaji's risk of violent assault at the hands of someone he knows are greater than his risk from random strangers.

Do forums count as "knowing" someone?
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#322 Mar 27 2014 at 6:35 AM Rating: Good
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You are "more likely" to be the victim of a violent crime by a stranger, than by a member of your own family, and certainly "more likely" than someone living in your own home

Yeah, no. You aren't, not close. Not remotely close.
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#323 Mar 27 2014 at 6:41 AM Rating: Good
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*cough* Read more than the abstract. They make a distinction between "strangers" and "total strangers".

Yeah, I saw. You didn't though, thus it proves you completely and utterly wrong. Unequivocally wrong.

Dead.
Fucking.
Wrong.

The study you cited to support your own point proved you wrong. How amazing, that only happens around 1 time in 1.

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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#324 Mar 27 2014 at 7:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
Do forums count as "knowing" someone?
You better hope not, or in about ten years you'll all be considered accomplices.
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#325 Mar 27 2014 at 2:34 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
You are "more likely" to be the victim of a violent crime by a stranger, than by a member of your own family, and certainly "more likely" than someone living in your own home

Yeah, no. You aren't, not close. Not remotely close.


And... once again we have Smash just ignoring facts. The study I cited showed 8% of violent crimes were committed by a member of the victims family. Did you flunk grade school when they taught greater than and less than?
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#326 Mar 28 2014 at 6:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:

The most likely way to be assaulted (battered, really, but I'm just going to use assault going forward), by far, in the US is to be in a relationship with a man who hits you. BY FAR. Not even vaguely close. The most likely way to be raped? You guessed it. Be in a relationship with a guy who rapes you. Child abducted? Father, 2/3rds of the time. Being assaulted by a partner is so prevalent it has to be codified as a separate crime to have any chance at analyzing "other assault" statistics. Guess who's most likely to get shot? Can you guess?


Sadly, this paragraph is accurate. What's the one majority constant in all those sentences though? I really wish that as a nation we would address the mental health of men.

Edited, Mar 28th 2014 8:47am by Torrence
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