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#202 Feb 03 2014 at 6:36 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Why on earth would you start with the road crew? Unless your contention is that rogue road crews are roaming around, shutting down lanes in some maverick fashion, you're just wasting time there. You already have a record who who told them where to go via the Port Authority and you already have senior people from the Port Authority implicating the governor's office.


Um... Because there are a number of levels of employees between the guys in the orange vests and the senior levels of the Port Authority. You get that they don't directly tell the road crews what to do, right? The senior level involvement probably went no more into detail than "there's some traffic study that these folks over there want. Go find out what they need, and construct a study to get the data that's needed". Seriously. We're talking 100k foot level here. My assumption is that this David Wildstein guy was never more involved in the planning than that, and probably was never actually in a meeting with the people who actually decided what lanes to close and when.

Edited, Feb 3rd 2014 4:37pm by gbaji
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#203 Feb 03 2014 at 7:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Why on earth would you start with the road crew? Unless your contention is that rogue road crews are roaming around, shutting down lanes in some maverick fashion, you're just wasting time there. You already have a record who who told them where to go via the Port Authority and you already have senior people from the Port Authority implicating the governor's office.


Um... Because there are a number of levels of employees between the guys in the orange vests and the senior levels of the Port Authority. You get that they don't directly tell the road crews what to do, right?

As adorable as it would be to listen to you lecture on construction management*, I'll just restate that we already have statements (and likely incoming testimony) from the decision-making levels of the organization.

*I'm reminded of you lecturing me about urban zoning and construction permitting. Which was made even more precious by your temper tantrum when people didn't just accept you as an authority on how ISPs and internet traffic worked.
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#204 Feb 03 2014 at 7:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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So it seems that Bridget Kelly, the charming lady who instructed the Port Authority "Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee", has invoked her Fifth Amendment rights and will not be cooperating with the subpoena for documents surrounding the closure.
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#205 Feb 03 2014 at 7:56 PM Rating: Good
The study that was approved had no mention of lane closures. It was for traffic cameras, which were installed prior to the email Kelley sent to Wildstein.

Edited, Feb 3rd 2014 9:00pm by Catwho
#206 Feb 03 2014 at 8:10 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Why on earth would you start with the road crew? Unless your contention is that rogue road crews are roaming around, shutting down lanes in some maverick fashion, you're just wasting time there. You already have a record who who told them where to go via the Port Authority and you already have senior people from the Port Authority implicating the governor's office.


Um... Because there are a number of levels of employees between the guys in the orange vests and the senior levels of the Port Authority. You get that they don't directly tell the road crews what to do, right? The senior level involvement probably went no more into detail than "there's some traffic study that these folks over there want. Go find out what they need, and construct a study to get the data that's needed". Seriously. We're talking 100k foot level here. My assumption is that this David Wildstein guy was never more involved in the planning than that, and probably was never actually in a meeting with the people who actually decided what lanes to close and when.

Edited, Feb 3rd 2014 4:37pm by gbaji


That is not an unreasonable line of defense. However, it does not really apply here. Christie is, well, known for being hands on kinda guy. I personally use the word micromanager. Many people find it rather hard to believe that, especially, he did not know, and that he was not actively involved.
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#207 Feb 03 2014 at 8:46 PM Rating: Default
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Catwho wrote:
The study that was approved had no mention of lane closures. It was for traffic cameras, which were installed prior to the email Kelley sent to Wildstein.


Then who put folks with orange vests and cones out to close those lanes? You don't actually think that Wildstein personally called up a few work crews and told them to close those lanes do you? So there were other people involved with the decision making process. People who had much greater understanding of traffic flow and whatnot than Wildstein. People who's jobs are to do things like organize freeway work and lane closures of all sorts. People who are not Wildstein.

Get it? This idea that it was him and some staff member working for the Governor is laughable.
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#208 Feb 03 2014 at 9:04 PM Rating: Default
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angrymnk wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Um... Because there are a number of levels of employees between the guys in the orange vests and the senior levels of the Port Authority. You get that they don't directly tell the road crews what to do, right? The senior level involvement probably went no more into detail than "there's some traffic study that these folks over there want. Go find out what they need, and construct a study to get the data that's needed". Seriously. We're talking 100k foot level here. My assumption is that this David Wildstein guy was never more involved in the planning than that, and probably was never actually in a meeting with the people who actually decided what lanes to close and when.


That is not an unreasonable line of defense. However, it does not really apply here. Christie is, well, known for being hands on kinda guy. I personally use the word micromanager. Many people find it rather hard to believe that, especially, he did not know, and that he was not actively involved.


Sure. But "hands on" from a political perspective doesn't really equate to "show up at a traffic/road planning meeting and tell them which roads to close and when". It's just such a strange leap to make. Hands on in that context means sending some mid level person who's in charge of that planning meeting emails saying "we really want to move forward with that traffic study". That guy then goes to the meeting and says "they really want us to move forward with that traffic study". Then he hands it off to the 8 guys in the room who work for him and are experts on traffic management and who's jobs are planning how to schedule closures in order to minimize traffic impact, and they figure out how to conduct the study. Then they go into sub meetings where they meet with the crew chiefs to discuss the proposed work, and go over the details of how, when, why, etc. Then those guys meet with their actual crews, set up assignments, formalize their schedules, etc.

The point is that before a single crew showed up with their cones and orange vests, several levels of "experts" on traffic work were involved with these planned lane closures and signed off on them. Even if we presume that Wildstein personally requested that they close lanes X, Y, and Z on a range of specific days and times (which we still have zero evidence of btw), between him asking for that to be done, and the guys in the vests actually doing it are a whole list of people who should have raised some kind of red flag if they even suspected that there was something unusual about the request, or it didn't match the stated need/purpose of some project, or whatever. Let's not forget that these are public workers in one of the more "static" fields (traffic work) personnel wise. So the odds that you could get a politically motivated "gotcha" through is pretty close to zero. Is anyone seriously trying to suggest that a whole bunch of mid level traffic workers were all on board with a political payback scheme against Democrats? Really?


I just find it far more likely that they just made some jokes in poor taste about the impact of the traffic closures, and their political enemies jumped on it as a way to attack Christie. So far, I just don't see the dots that connect between the closures themselves and the claim of political payback.
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#209 Feb 03 2014 at 9:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
I'm just not seeing it.
[...]
I'm not seeing the dots in between though.
[...]
I really honestly don't see that.
Truly shocking revelations.
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#210 Feb 03 2014 at 9:23 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Um... Because there are a number of levels of employees between the guys in the orange vests and the senior levels of the Port Authority. You get that they don't directly tell the road crews what to do, right? The senior level involvement probably went no more into detail than "there's some traffic study that these folks over there want. Go find out what they need, and construct a study to get the data that's needed". Seriously. We're talking 100k foot level here. My assumption is that this David Wildstein guy was never more involved in the planning than that, and probably was never actually in a meeting with the people who actually decided what lanes to close and when.


That is not an unreasonable line of defense. However, it does not really apply here. Christie is, well, known for being hands on kinda guy. I personally use the word micromanager. Many people find it rather hard to believe that, especially, he did not know, and that he was not actively involved.


Sure. But "hands on" from a political perspective doesn't really equate to "show up at a traffic/road planning meeting and tell them which roads to close and when". It's just such a strange leap to make. Hands on in that context means sending some mid level person who's in charge of that planning meeting emails saying "we really want to move forward with that traffic study". That guy then goes to the meeting and says "they really want us to move forward with that traffic study". Then he hands it off to the 8 guys in the room who work for him and are experts on traffic management and who's jobs are planning how to schedule closures in order to minimize traffic impact, and they figure out how to conduct the study. Then they go into sub meetings where they meet with the crew chiefs to discuss the proposed work, and go over the details of how, when, why, etc. Then those guys meet with their actual crews, set up assignments, formalize their schedules, etc.

The point is that before a single crew showed up with their cones and orange vests, several levels of "experts" on traffic work were involved with these planned lane closures and signed off on them. Even if we presume that Wildstein personally requested that they close lanes X, Y, and Z on a range of specific days and times (which we still have zero evidence of btw), between him asking for that to be done, and the guys in the vests actually doing it are a whole list of people who should have raised some kind of red flag if they even suspected that there was something unusual about the request, or it didn't match the stated need/purpose of some project, or whatever. Let's not forget that these are public workers in one of the more "static" fields (traffic work) personnel wise. So the odds that you could get a politically motivated "gotcha" through is pretty close to zero. Is anyone seriously trying to suggest that a whole bunch of mid level traffic workers were all on board with a political payback scheme against Democrats? Really?


I just find it far more likely that they just made some jokes in poor taste about the impact of the traffic closures, and their political enemies jumped on it as a way to attack Christie. So far, I just don't see the dots that connect between the closures themselves and the claim of political payback.


Weird, usually you can see the dots where there aren't any. So you think it is impossible, because Christie is way too high up to engage in some petty political payback.

Oh, your face will be so red when it turns out that he wasn't too high for that after all.


Personally, I gave him the benefit of the doubt until mr. W started to talk. As it stands right now, if you don't see it, you are wilfully blind. That is ok though, we all want to believe in something. Why not Christie?
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#211 Feb 03 2014 at 9:42 PM Rating: Excellent
gbaji wrote:
Catwho wrote:
The study that was approved had no mention of lane closures. It was for traffic cameras, which were installed prior to the email Kelley sent to Wildstein.


Then who put folks with orange vests and cones out to close those lanes? You don't actually think that Wildstein personally called up a few work crews and told them to close those lanes do you? So there were other people involved with the decision making process. People who had much greater understanding of traffic flow and whatnot than Wildstein. People who's jobs are to do things like organize freeway work and lane closures of all sorts. People who are not Wildstein.

Get it? This idea that it was him and some staff member working for the Governor is laughable.


Actually, it's pretty much what happened. All the people who are, per the regulations of New Jersey and New York, supposed to be informed about this kind of thing, were not so informed ahead of time. That's why everyone freaked out. That's why people started digging all the way back in September immediately after it happened. It didn't grow legs until the FOAI dug out the emails indicating that people who claimed ignorance of the whole thing actually knew (e.g. people in Christie's office.)

Christie's only line of defense for himself has been, to this point, that his staff didn't tell him about it until after the lanes were re-opened. (I guess he doesn't listen to traffic reports or the news.) No emails directly implicate Christie.

But now that half his staff has resigned and been subpoenaed and he's thrown them under the bus, speculation is whether or not they're going to say he was the instigator or try to protect him til the end.

#212 Feb 03 2014 at 9:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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Christie's office was served with a federal subpoena.

Quick, someone tell the US Attorney that they should be talking to Traffic Cone Larry instead!
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#213 Feb 03 2014 at 9:47 PM Rating: Default
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angrymnk wrote:
Weird, usually you can see the dots where there aren't any. So you think it is impossible, because Christie is way too high up to engage in some petty political payback.


No. I don't think it's impossible. I just think that the investigation has skipped past the whole "did someone actually do something wrong?" part and right to the "find the person responsible!" part.

Quote:
Oh, your face will be so red when it turns out that he wasn't too high for that after all.


Sure. And if it turns out that those lanes really were closed in some kind of bizarre political revenge scheme, committed by members of the governors staff, I'll freely admit that I was wrong and I apparently have no clue how stupid and petty folks in NJ are. And if the governor himself is involved, I'll also freely admit that he's a heavy handed *** hat, and boy are people stupid and vindictive in Jersey.

But I'm the person who looked at the Plame scandal on day one and predicted that it would turn out that no laws were broken, and no one really outed anyone, but they'd find someone in the white house to nail for perjury or some other such silly charge. And that's exactly what happened.

For the record? That is what a real "phoney scandal" looks like. Now, It's possible that I'm wrong. But if this goes anything like most of the trumped up phoney scandals the left has cooked up go, the "investigation" will mostly involve a couple years of innuendo and cleverly leaked statements designed to be most damaging to the GOP victims involved. They'll keep going over records and testimony until they find someone (or multiple someone's) who lied about something somewhere, even if it's completely unrelated to the original scandal. And then, after enough time has gone by, and most people have forgotten what the original thing was about and are primed to accept a half loaf result, they'll quietly conclude with facts that don't match the original claims, but it wont matter because they'll have trashed several people's careers along the way and gotten a couple years of media cycles where they get to rehash the old "corrupt republicans" meme.

But hey. I could be wrong. Never know.


Quote:
Personally, I gave him the benefit of the doubt until mr. W started to talk. As it stands right now, if you don't see it, you are wilfully blind. That is ok though, we all want to believe in something. Why not Christie?


Who? Seriously. I really don't care that much, nor do I even know who most of these people are. It's just that I've been watching this thing unfold nationally for a month or so now, and every time I read or hear someone talk about it, they skip right from "lanes were closed" to "who knew the lanes were going to be closed" and I've yet to have anyone really explain how merely knowing that some lanes were going to be closed equates to being in on some kind of plot.

I guessing that hundreds of people knew that those lanes were going to be closed. Were they all in on it? Or just the people working for and politically aligned with Christie? Doesn't that seem suspiciously selective? Again, look hard enough at anyone and you'll find something that can be viewed as "suspicious". The issue with a lot of these scandals isn't about what was done by whom, but who the folks investigating decide to focus on. If the Plame scandal had focused on the meeting she had and traced who knew about her from there, they would have arrived at Armitage almost immediately. But instead, they started with the theory that the white house outted her as payback for her husbands Op Eds. Therefore, they focused only on who in the white house knew about her and might have leaked it.

Same deal here. They're starting with the conspiracy theory (they did it to get back at their political enemies) and thus focusing only on looking at people who knew or were involved, and who might be in on such a conspiracy. They should be starting with the work that was done, then looking at who signed off on it. Then looking at who met with those who signed off on it. And then looking at who gave direction to those who were in the meetings with those who signed off on it. I suspect that once you do that, you'll find that there really was a planned traffic study, and someone deep in the bowels of whatever agency in NJ handles traffic issues decided that blocking off selected lanes would give them more/better data, and a bunch of other people, most not involved with the governors office or party in any direct way, all thought it was a good idea as well, and thus it got authorized.

Starting with the top and looking only at people in the governor's circle who knew about it is a really skewed way of doing things if you actually want to find out what happened and why. It's a great way of doing things if your objective is to create a scandal that will damage governor Christie.
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#214 Feb 03 2014 at 9:59 PM Rating: Default
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gbaji wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
Weird, usually you can see the dots where there aren't any. So you think it is impossible, because Christie is way too high up to engage in some petty political payback.


No. I don't think it's impossible. I just think that the investigation has skipped past the whole "did someone actually do something wrong?" part and right to the "find the person responsible!" part.

Quote:
Oh, your face will be so red when it turns out that he wasn't too high for that after all.


Sure. And if it turns out that those lanes really were closed in some kind of bizarre political revenge scheme, committed by members of the governors staff, I'll freely admit that I was wrong and I apparently have no clue how stupid and petty folks in NJ are. And if the governor himself is involved, I'll also freely admit that he's a heavy handed *** hat, and boy are people stupid and vindictive in Jersey.

But I'm the person who looked at the Plame scandal on day one and predicted that it would turn out that no laws were broken, and no one really outed anyone, but they'd find someone in the white house to nail for perjury or some other such silly charge. And that's exactly what happened.

For the record? That is what a real "phoney scandal" looks like. Now, It's possible that I'm wrong. But if this goes anything like most of the trumped up phoney scandals the left has cooked up go, the "investigation" will mostly involve a couple years of innuendo and cleverly leaked statements designed to be most damaging to the GOP victims involved. They'll keep going over records and testimony until they find someone (or multiple someone's) who lied about something somewhere, even if it's completely unrelated to the original scandal. And then, after enough time has gone by, and most people have forgotten what the original thing was about and are primed to accept a half loaf result, they'll quietly conclude with facts that don't match the original claims, but it wont matter because they'll have trashed several people's careers along the way and gotten a couple years of media cycles where they get to rehash the old "corrupt republicans" meme.

But hey. I could be wrong. Never know.


Quote:
Personally, I gave him the benefit of the doubt until mr. W started to talk. As it stands right now, if you don't see it, you are wilfully blind. That is ok though, we all want to believe in something. Why not Christie?


Who? Seriously. I really don't care that much, nor do I even know who most of these people are. It's just that I've been watching this thing unfold nationally for a month or so now, and every time I read or hear someone talk about it, they skip right from "lanes were closed" to "who knew the lanes were going to be closed" and I've yet to have anyone really explain how merely knowing that some lanes were going to be closed equates to being in on some kind of plot.

I guessing that hundreds of people knew that those lanes were going to be closed. Were they all in on it? Or just the people working for and politically aligned with Christie? Doesn't that seem suspiciously selective? Again, look hard enough at anyone and you'll find something that can be viewed as "suspicious". The issue with a lot of these scandals isn't about what was done by whom, but who the folks investigating decide to focus on. If the Plame scandal had focused on the meeting she had and traced who knew about her from there, they would have arrived at Armitage almost immediately. But instead, they started with the theory that the white house outted her as payback for her husbands Op Eds. Therefore, they focused only on who in the white house knew about her and might have leaked it.

Same deal here. They're starting with the conspiracy theory (they did it to get back at their political enemies) and thus focusing only on looking at people who knew or were involved, and who might be in on such a conspiracy. They should be starting with the work that was done, then looking at who signed off on it. Then looking at who met with those who signed off on it. And then looking at who gave direction to those who were in the meetings with those who signed off on it. I suspect that once you do that, you'll find that there really was a planned traffic study, and someone deep in the bowels of whatever agency in NJ handles traffic issues decided that blocking off selected lanes would give them more/better data, and a bunch of other people, most not involved with the governors office or party in any direct way, all thought it was a good idea as well, and thus it got authorized.

Starting with the top and looking only at people in the governor's circle who knew about it is a really skewed way of doing things if you actually want to find out what happened and why. It's a great way of doing things if your objective is to create a scandal that will damage governor Christie.


It is not completely outside the realm of possibility; I can give you that much. Calling it a fake scandal is a reach. Calling it a conspiracy theory is amusing.

I guess the question is, do you believe in the traffic study explanation?
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#215 Feb 03 2014 at 10:01 PM Rating: Default
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Catwho wrote:
Actually, it's pretty much what happened. All the people who are, per the regulations of New Jersey and New York, supposed to be informed about this kind of thing, were not so informed ahead of time. That's why everyone freaked out. That's why people started digging all the way back in September immediately after it happened. It didn't grow legs until the FOAI dug out the emails indicating that people who claimed ignorance of the whole thing actually knew (e.g. people in Christie's office.)


A FOIA request by a left leaning media outlet that looked only at emails of people connected with Christie. You don't see the problem with that?


And you're believing the whole "normal channels weren't followed" bit? Look. Someone (multiple someone's) screwed up. Big time. And that someone is unlikely to step forward and say "Yeah. We were complete idiots who didn't realize how much problem this would cause". And if the media folks scrutinize the governors staff instead of the folks who were actually involved, you think they're not just going to stay quiet and thank their lucky stars that politics is more important than the truth? Yeah. Sure.

People freaked out. Then the people who should have been on top of this sort of thing, but screwed up, looked for someone to take the fall.

I'll point out again that Wildstein can't order a crew to shut down a lane. Someone else, several someone elses, at several organizational levels between him and the crews had to both known and agreed to do it. If the correct signs off processes were not followed, then the question should be "why the hell did a road crew close those lanes without proper authorization?". And you trace the issue upwards from there. Saying "normal regulations weren't followed' is a cop out. Someone told the crews to do that. Someone told that person to tell them. Someone else told that person. Etc... Skipping all those steps and blaming Wildstein is insane.

Quote:
Christie's only line of defense for himself has been, to this point, that his staff didn't tell him about it until after the lanes were re-opened. (I guess he doesn't listen to traffic reports or the news.) No emails directly implicate Christie.

But now that half his staff has resigned and been subpoenaed and he's thrown them under the bus, speculation is whether or not they're going to say he was the instigator or try to protect him til the end.


You're operating under the assumption that the conspiracy theory is true. Consider that it's not, and this whole thing is an exercise in constructed scandal. Who gains? It's strange that you have no problem accepting the idea that people would engage in what has to be the stupidest political payback scheme in the history of the universe, yet managed to pull it off despite having no direct authority to do so, and apparently with no record of them actually giving any orders to anyone involved in the lane closures at all, but you can't muster up the imagination to think that maybe someone just decided to take advantage of a traffic ***** up to go on a fishing expedition against the governors office?

Examine any group of people close enough and long enough, and you'll find someone who did or said something that can be made to look suspicious. The first rule of a scandal is to point the investigation at the people you want to hurt. Hence my suspicion at a scandal that seems to have been created in the news media by choosing to look only at the governors people rather than tracking the people who actually did the work.
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#216 Feb 03 2014 at 10:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
But I'm the person who looked at the Plame scandal on day one and predicted that it would turn out that no laws were broken, and no one really outed anyone, but they'd find someone in the white house to nail for perjury or some other such silly charge. And that's exactly what happened.

It's true. The Bush-led CIA asked the Bush-led Department of Justice to have Bush cabinet member Attorney General John Ashcroft push the case to the Bush-led U.S. Department of Justice Office of Special Counsel and have the Republican nominated Patrick Fitzgerald investigate and convene a Grand Jury because... desire to pin the White House for perjury! And Gbaji knew it first!

Smiley: tinfoilhat
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#217 Feb 03 2014 at 10:26 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Sure. And if it turns out that those lanes really were closed in some kind of bizarre political revenge scheme, committed by members of the governors staff, I'll freely admit that I was wrong and I apparently have no clue how stupid and petty folks in NJ are. And if the governor himself is involved, I'll also freely admit that he's a heavy handed *** hat, and boy are people stupid and vindictive in Jersey.

Considering you're from the Wrong Coast I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but New Jersey in general is stupid, petty and vindictive.
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#218 Feb 03 2014 at 10:28 PM Rating: Default
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angrymnk wrote:
It is not completely outside the realm of possibility; I can give you that much. Calling it a fake scandal is a reach. Calling it a conspiracy theory is amusing.


The theory that the traffic was shut down as a means of enacting some kind of political payback or punishment does kinda meet the criteria, doesn't it? I mean, there's zero evidence of it. None at all. Yet, despite the utter lack of any evidence of that as a motivation, the entire investigation is moving forward based on the assumption that it is true. Think about that.

I'll say again that if this was really about figuring out how the lane closures happened, they should start with the actual lane closures and follow the approval trail. It's impossible that crews just showed up and closed off lanes without someone authorized to instruct them to do that doing so. And if that person did so without proper authorization, then he's to blame. If he had authorization, then you look at who authorized that person and if he followed the proper processes. Repeat this process and at some point you'll either conclude that the lane closures were properly authorized and that the whole thing, while stupid, was not the result of any sort of evil plot *or* you'll find someone at some level who didn't follow the proper procedures and authorized something he wasn't supposed to.

Quote:
I guess the question is, do you believe in the traffic study explanation?


Given that I have yet to find any actual solid direct facts refuting it, then why not? I guess what really bugs me about this, is that I keep finding people "out there" who repeat the claim that the study wasn't supposed to close lanes and that <some magic happened> which caused lanes to be closed anyway, but I can't actually find any source confirming this or explaining how it did come to be that those lanes were closed. It's like that one really critical piece of data is just missing and we jump instead to "OMG! A couple people who know Christie sent emails talking about the lane closures!". Um... Ok. Who ordered them? Who approved them? What chain of people were involved in those lanes being closed? Those are kinda important questions, right?


I guess also what I find really strange is that even if we assume that Wildstein did order the lane closures (whether for political payback or because he's just an idiot), it does not explain how his idea to close those lanes traveled from him to the crews and apparently bypassed every other person in between who presumably should have been both knowledgeable and empowered to say "that's a really dumb idea, how about we not?". So even if he came up with a really stupid idea to punish people by closing down traffic lanes (hey. Some people tweet out pictures of their junk, so who knows?), how the hell did it get through all the layers of people who should have known better? They can't all have been in on it, right? So if a bunch of people, who presumably were not "in on it", thought it was an ok idea, then how can we assume that he can't have thought it was ok too.

Remember that the entire "conspiracy" basically rests on the assumption that this lane closure was such an incredibly stupid, useless, and unnecessary thing, that no one could possibly have thought of doing it (or oking it) for legitimate reasons. Thus, it *must* have been done deliberately for some nefarious reason. Cause that's the only logical explanation, right? Frankly, I think people are grossly overestimating the cleverness of people who engage in political payback and grossly underestimating the ability of people (especially organizations) to make really really stupid decisions.


I think that this was just another example of a terrible idea that should not have happened, but did, and some folks taking advantage of that to point the finger of blame at some convenient political targets. There's just way too much smoke, and a suspicious lack of fire here. Sure. We know the lanes were closed, but why so little actual information about the closures themselves, but so much focus on what the governors staff knew about it? I just think we should follow the authorization trail first instead of just looking at selective people.
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#219 Feb 04 2014 at 3:10 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
I mean, there's zero evidence of it. None at all. Yet, despite the utter lack of any evidence of that as a motivation, the entire investigation is moving forward based on the assumption that it is true.
Besides all of the evidence you've hand waved away as your "just not seeing it," you mean.
gbaji wrote:
Think about that.
Republican. gbaji to the rescue by repeating what he heard on the news. Not nearly as much to think about as you would hope. Kind of pedestrian, really.
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#220 Feb 04 2014 at 3:31 AM Rating: Good
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Gbaji wrote:
Highly unlikely that he would have even come close to being the nominee. I've never been a huge fan of Christie, but I get why people like him. He's got a strong "tell it like it is" persona, that people tend to like in a politician (in theory anyway). In reality, that sort of politics ends out getting you bounced out of national level runs because it's something that sounds great in principle, but makes it terrifically easy for the opposition to turn against you. There are far too many different groups that can be pissed off by that sort of political approach.

Um... And at the risk of injecting something which maybe shouldn't matter. He's fat. Not "a little on the heavy side", but actually medically obese. We can all stand here and say it shouldn't affect his chances, but if we're honest we all know that alone costs him like 10 points in any national election (at least). People like their leaders healthy and strong. Fair or not, an obese person is assumed to have a lack of self control. And if he can't be trusted to keep his sweaty mitts off the dessert tray, how can we trust him with the nuclear ******* of the worlds largest military?
The key word is "reluctantly". If he is the only person leading HRC in the polls, taking votes from groups that others can't imagine, it would be silly not to nominate him.

Gbaji wrote:
Having said all of that, I have to admit that I'm honestly still confused about what the hell this whole scandal is actually about. I get that there were lanes closed that caused a big massive traffic jam. And I get that there were people who "knew about it" (which seems kinda "duh", since someone had to actually authorize it and send crews to do it). What I don't get, and haven't yet really heard a satisfactory explanation to is how we go from those facts to "The governors staff deliberately closed the lanes to create a traffic jam to <insert fuzzy logic here> harm some Mayor from the other party".

It just seems like a strange leap to make, yet, all the coverage and "investigation" seems to be focusing on whether various people in the governors staff knew about the closures, and not into the motivation and reasoning behind the closures themselves. I mean, I'm assuming the governor's staff weren't actually standing on the freeway with cones and orange vests themselves, right? So there had to be coordination with a whole set of different organizations which actually have direct control over things like freeway lane closures. So shouldn't we be looking at that process instead of going on a witch hunt through the governors office?


It would seem like minutes of meetings with whatever groups actually did the closures might yield more information as to why they happened and whether those reasons were legitimate, right? I mean, do we actually have anything other than wild speculation to suggest that this was actually some kind of political payback thing?
Given that I'm late, I wont reiterate what has already been said. However, I will say that a bunch of people don't resign and plead the 5th if they are innocent of any wrong doing.
#221 Feb 04 2014 at 7:19 AM Rating: Default
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gbaji wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
It is not completely outside the realm of possibility; I can give you that much. Calling it a fake scandal is a reach. Calling it a conspiracy theory is amusing.


The theory that the traffic was shut down as a means of enacting some kind of political payback or punishment does kinda meet the criteria, doesn't it? I mean, there's zero evidence of it. None at all. Yet, despite the utter lack of any evidence of that as a motivation, the entire investigation is moving forward based on the assumption that it is true. Think about that.

I'll say again that if this was really about figuring out how the lane closures happened, they should start with the actual lane closures and follow the approval trail. It's impossible that crews just showed up and closed off lanes without someone authorized to instruct them to do that doing so. And if that person did so without proper authorization, then he's to blame. If he had authorization, then you look at who authorized that person and if he followed the proper processes. Repeat this process and at some point you'll either conclude that the lane closures were properly authorized and that the whole thing, while stupid, was not the result of any sort of evil plot *or* you'll find someone at some level who didn't follow the proper procedures and authorized something he wasn't supposed to.

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I guess the question is, do you believe in the traffic study explanation?


Given that I have yet to find any actual solid direct facts refuting it, then why not? I guess what really bugs me about this, is that I keep finding people "out there" who repeat the claim that the study wasn't supposed to close lanes and that <some magic happened> which caused lanes to be closed anyway, but I can't actually find any source confirming this or explaining how it did come to be that those lanes were closed. It's like that one really critical piece of data is just missing and we jump instead to "OMG! A couple people who know Christie sent emails talking about the lane closures!". Um... Ok. Who ordered them? Who approved them? What chain of people were involved in those lanes being closed? Those are kinda important questions, right?


I guess also what I find really strange is that even if we assume that Wildstein did order the lane closures (whether for political payback or because he's just an idiot), it does not explain how his idea to close those lanes traveled from him to the crews and apparently bypassed every other person in between who presumably should have been both knowledgeable and empowered to say "that's a really dumb idea, how about we not?". So even if he came up with a really stupid idea to punish people by closing down traffic lanes (hey. Some people tweet out pictures of their junk, so who knows?), how the hell did it get through all the layers of people who should have known better? They can't all have been in on it, right? So if a bunch of people, who presumably were not "in on it", thought it was an ok idea, then how can we assume that he can't have thought it was ok too.

Remember that the entire "conspiracy" basically rests on the assumption that this lane closure was such an incredibly stupid, useless, and unnecessary thing, that no one could possibly have thought of doing it (or oking it) for legitimate reasons. Thus, it *must* have been done deliberately for some nefarious reason. Cause that's the only logical explanation, right? Frankly, I think people are grossly overestimating the cleverness of people who engage in political payback and grossly underestimating the ability of people (especially organizations) to make really really stupid decisions.


I think that this was just another example of a terrible idea that should not have happened, but did, and some folks taking advantage of that to point the finger of blame at some convenient political targets. There's just way too much smoke, and a suspicious lack of fire here. Sure. We know the lanes were closed, but why so little actual information about the closures themselves, but so much focus on what the governors staff knew about it? I just think we should follow the authorization trail first instead of just looking at selective people.


Hmm, ok, funny that we didn't see the proposed project documentation for the study; related study documents were, apparently, not even recovered by the right leaning media. I will mention that it would appear that few studies are done by actually blocking stuff ( and done without heads up ).

Food for thought,
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#222 Feb 04 2014 at 7:37 AM Rating: Good
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But I'm the person who looked at the Plame scandal on day one and predicted that it would turn out that no laws were broken, and no one really outed anyone, but they'd find someone in the white house to nail for perjury or some other such silly charge. And that's exactly what happened.

Nope. Exciting retcon, not at all what you claimed at the time.
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#223 Feb 04 2014 at 8:11 PM Rating: Default
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I mean, there's zero evidence of it. None at all. Yet, despite the utter lack of any evidence of that as a motivation, the entire investigation is moving forward based on the assumption that it is true.
Besides all of the evidence you've hand waved away as your "just not seeing it," you mean.


What evidence? The quotes from the emails do not even show that either Wildstein or Kelly was responsible for making the lane closures happen, much less give us any reason to make any assumption about the motivation behind said lane closures. They only show that they knew they were going to happen. Great. So they and presumably several hundred other people all knew that these lane closures were going to happen. That means nothing.


You're starting with what you want to believe happened and then looking only at things that are consistent with that starting point. So what? Lots of things are consistent with that assumption. But they're also consistent with any of a dozen other more likely explanations.

When you hear hoofbeats behind you, you don't assume it's a zebra.

Quote:
Republican. gbaji to the rescue by repeating what he heard on the news.


You know, the whole "you're just parroting what you heard" bit is really old and tired. Doubly so in this case, where the issue is that I'm not hearing anything on the news about this. I'm specifically commenting on what I see as big gaping holes in the information about this case in the media. I've been trying to find that information, but it's just not there. And that makes me think that there's something bogus about the scandal. There's just too many people saying "This was done for political payback", but aside from people saying that over and over, I can't find anything that actually supports that idea.

If I just wrote down all the facts we have about this, and presented it to someone who hadn't heard anything about this before, they would never in a million years conclude that there was a plot by the governors office/staff/whatever to block lanes to punish their political enemies. You only think that because a bunch of people in the media keep speculating that that happened. Take away their speculative editorializing and there's no reason to think that. We're talking cart before the horse, big time.
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#224 Feb 04 2014 at 8:17 PM Rating: Excellent
I don't know how many times I have to say this but NO ONE KNEW THE LANE CLOSURES WERE HAPPENING WHO WAS SUPPOSED TO KNOW.

Aside from the foreman of the road crew and the road crew itself, who was ordered to do it by Wildstein.
#225 Feb 04 2014 at 8:22 PM Rating: Decent
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Catwho wrote:
I don't know how many times I have to say this but NO ONE KNEW THE LANE CLOSURES WERE HAPPENING WHO WAS SUPPOSED TO KNOW.

Aside from the foreman of the road crew and the road crew itself, who was ordered to do it by Wildstein.


Don't yell at him. It will only scare him. What I found helpful is to slowly nudge him towards the answer.

Does it take long. Good God yes, but I did not see anything else work.
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#226 Feb 04 2014 at 9:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
But I'm the person who looked at the Plame scandal on day one and predicted that it would turn out that no laws were broken, and no one really outed anyone, but they'd find someone in the white house to nail for perjury or some other such silly charge. And that's exactly what happened.

Nope. Exciting retcon, not at all what you claimed at the time.


Sigh... It's like you forgot that we have a record of past posts

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Which is why my original statement was that I think most people will be surprised by the result. I really do think that the end of this investigation will be that Plame and the CIA did not take the correct steps to ensure her employment was protected, and ultimately that resulted in multiple "leaks" of her identity.

I don't think they'll ever find any evidence that Rove, Libby, or any other White House staffer, or State Department employee knowingly revealed a "secret" agent (since apparently no one knew her status was that "secret" to begin with). I think that they will find some bogus obstruction charges to file against a few people just to make it look like they got some value out of the investigation though.


It's like I'm freaking Nostradamus!
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