Cruz's "Filibuster"Follow

Some good points here, and I'd add another to the mix: due to the way the Tea Party, Ted Cruz, and others rallied behind the defunding idea in the summer, all of these factors started to coalesce around the concept, which then snowballed into something larger than most of the right blocs could have expected. It then became the House strategy, because Boehner was under pressure to go along. So a rally cry by a few on repeal/defund goes from being sentiment of most in GOP to becoming the party's official position, and what we're watching now is the consequence of that series of events. Democrats read the writing on the wall and decided to sit on their hands and let the scene play out as Republican leaders struggled to control their own narrative.
[...]
That's Reid's point: he thinks the House Rs will ultimately break and concede that clean CR is only option. This Reid posture infuriates House conservatives, though, and makes them only dig in more--and the shutdown continues as both sides strain not to blink. Besides, the conference idea by the House GOP was crafted at the last minute and was more of a messaging exercise than anything. Evidence: during first "conference meeting," the GOP had meeting with empty chairs.
[...]
CR is brief, and conference move by Boehner is just another signal from the leadership that this will all be worked out as part of the debt limit... boehner is at a point where if he doesn't come back with a concession, after Right stirred pot for months, he risks his power.
[...]
And sometimes the goal of politicians is to stay in power within their own party, not just to ensure the party itself keeps its power.
[...]
The president and Senate Dems believe the House GOP has a poor negotiating position due to internal GOP problems and president's 2012 victory, so as much as they may acknowledge problems with the ACA, they're not going to engage in talks about defund/delay--and they believe the political dynamics will work in their favor as they hold firm.
[...]
Folks, here's what I'm hearing about the latest news, that the WH and Hill leaders will huddle to discuss CR... Republicans are skeptical that Obama will offer anything on the CR that they can sell to their conference, but the leadership will be looking to see how much he's willing to play ball, at least at this early stage, on things like entitlement reform/sequestration as the debt limit nears.
[...]
There's a reason for their optimism, even if it is eventually proven to be unrealistic optimism. They look back at 2011 (think Woodward, Price of Politics) and they were able to get sequestration. They think, if they play their cards right, they can do the same w/ CR and debt limit this month. But the prob is that 2011 was a different political climate than fall 2013; GOP had just won House, Obama was on ropes. Now, instead of being in constant talks w/ WH a la 2011, the GOP civil war is a public spectacle, which hurts their ability to make similar fiscal demands.
[...]
Most of the conference is well aware of the consequences of default. In fact, over the past few years, the House GOP leadership has actually hosted private meetings for members about what default means and why it shouldn't happen. But, at the same time, Republicans are very eager to get some kind of 2011-esque concession from the White House and Senate Democrats on the budget, when they were able to pass legislation that led to sequestration. Of course, the political climate then was different, due to the GOP having recently won the House, but the GOP is hoping for a similar outcome this time, and you have leaders like Paul Ryan publicly talking about a larger agreement being possible. I'm still skeptical though, since most Republicans are unwilling, at all, to bend on taxes, and Democrats aren't exactly scrambling to cut a big deal with Boehner, who they think is in a weakened position.
[...]
Remember, the defund/repeal efforts aren't only about actually killing the law or even bringing Obama to the table, but about messaging ahead of the 2014 midterms. Republicans are already planning to, once again, run against Obamacare and these campaigns against the law are part of setting up that argument. The shutdown, in a sense, is the ultimate messaging opportunity, since it coincides with the beginning of Obamacare's implementation, when Republicans are trying to make a broad case about federal dysfunction and bureaucracy. So I don't think many GOPers think Obama will kill his signature bill, but they are hoping to have a better chance of killing it in the coming years by chipping away at it this year, before it sort of calcifies in the public imagination.
[...]
The endgame for both sides right now is murky. I don't think, though, that it's a so-called "clean CR," which is what Harry Reid wants and Boehner doesn't. Instead, it's likely going to be a clean-ish CR--a clean CR with a smaller Democratic concession attached--and then a promise to fight on toward the debt-limit deadline. But Reid isn't under pressure yet to do this, which is why he keeps sending every House bill back. As long as he believes House Rs will shoulder the blame for the shutdown, his endgame is simply not blinking, and hoping Boehner eventually gives in or faces pressures from the inside or outside that shake up the stalemate.
[...]
Both the CR to fund the government and the debt limit are increasingly interrelated, and I keep hearing how, if the shutdown continues, the final deal for both showdowns will be combined. In the meantime, House Republicans are trying to deal with the lack of appropriations by selectively funding parts of the government, such as the national parks or the Washington, D.C. city government. It's a small-ball strategy meant to put Democrats in a corner by pressuring them to slowly reopen the government--and for now, Democrats are resisting.