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#1 Sep 09 2013 at 6:40 AM Rating: Good
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This Van Gogh painting was just recently discovered in a Norwegian attic.

It's the first newly discovered painting by the infamous artist since the 1920's. I'm not sure why I found this story interesting, but maybe it was simply because I like the painting. It's very Van Gogh though not terribly exciting imagery. I think it's the bejewelled sky that caught my eye.....

How much do you think it will auction off at?

I'm guessing ~200 mil



Edited, Sep 11th 2013 5:58pm by Elinda
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#2 Sep 09 2013 at 6:44 AM Rating: Good
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Van Gogh himself has described the painting as a failure. Although it's still great I ca agree with him as it's nowhere near the quality of his famous works.

Also, I think it won't be auctioned off but will be added to the Van Gogh museum in Amsterdam.
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#3 Sep 09 2013 at 6:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Screenshot


If it's not this one, I'm not interested.
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#4 Sep 09 2013 at 7:02 AM Rating: Good
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#5 Sep 09 2013 at 7:04 AM Rating: Good
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Thar be shrooms in those thickets!!
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#6 Sep 09 2013 at 8:46 PM Rating: Good
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Rijksmuseum > Van Gogh Museum
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#7 Sep 10 2013 at 4:56 AM Rating: Good
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Demea wrote:
Rijksmuseum > Van Gogh Museum
I agree. And I really should go there again sometime, it's been too long.
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#8 Sep 10 2013 at 6:12 AM Rating: Excellent
I like focused museums, so for me VG has an edge, but Rijksmuseum is great.
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#9 Sep 10 2013 at 7:32 AM Rating: Good
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The MOMA is okay.
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#10 Sep 10 2013 at 8:09 AM Rating: Good
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
I like focused museums, so for me VG has an edge, but Rijksmuseum is great.
I like that but Museums in Amsterdam are pretty expensive and then I find it a bit too narrow a focus.

Also, the Droog store isn't a museum but they've got enough rare and amazing design pieces that it might as well be. Except that you could buy what's in the store if you're willing to spend several (tens of) thousands on a piece of impractical furniture.
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#11 Sep 10 2013 at 9:05 AM Rating: Excellent
Sure, I think I went to the VG museum once and the Rijk two or three times, so cost doesn't really factor in that much. I'm not really a museum person.
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#12 Sep 10 2013 at 9:22 AM Rating: Good
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Van Gogh himself has described the painting as a failure. Although it's still great I ca agree with him as it's nowhere near the quality of his famous works.

Also, I think it won't be auctioned off but will be added to the Van Gogh museum in Amsterdam.


I suspect an artist loathing the work has a tendency to make it more desirable, not less.

And yeah, the Van Gogh exhibit at MOMA is legit.
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#13 Sep 10 2013 at 10:02 AM Rating: Good
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
I suspect an artist loathing the work has a tendency to make it more desirable, not less.
I'm pretty sure that only works if it's on the same level as the artist's best pieces which, from what I've seen, this isn't.
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#14 Sep 10 2013 at 10:47 AM Rating: Good
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Art is such a volatile market that it's a combination of factors really. At the end of the day, the price of a painting has far, far more to do with the story surrounding it, than the quality of the work itself.

Long-lost painting, hidden away in an attic, hated by an artist known for being unstable, painted at the apex of his career, with an extremely romantic title?

Yeah... that's probably going to sell for a lot of money.

Because, at the end of the day, the value of a painting is its social value. Your ability to resell it has more to do with how interesting it is than how technically impressive it is.

That's not to say the quality doesn't have an impact on that price, but a lesser work with a great story is always going to outsell a greater work without one.
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#15 Sep 10 2013 at 11:31 AM Rating: Good
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The only difference in the story between this new one and, say, his sunflowers is that Van Gogh considered this one failed and that it was in a private collection for the past 120 years. And from what I know critics agree that it's not as good as his other work so he didn't consider it a failure for some strange reason or anything.

Of course it's still a Van Gogh and it's still priceless but it doesn't have the story of his bedroom painting where he intentionally misrepresented the perspective because he was influenced by (if I recall correctly) Japanese art. It's biggest selling point is that it was considered lost for the past 100 years.
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#16 Sep 10 2013 at 11:52 AM Rating: Good
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Yeah, but when the biggest selling point is going to be a really big selling point, it's worth noting.

This is a painting that has massive international attention, right now. Most people buying this art don't actually know much or give a **** about art. They're generally people who see a pretty painting and want the social accolades of owning it.

Being the person to own a long-lost painting is going to be a really big seller. I'd wager far more so than if this was the single best painting Van Gogh had ever put brush to.

Remember, the vast majority of the people who will be bidding on this painting will be significantly less interested in art than you are. As a matter of fact, because it's not an impressive work relative to his other pieces, the people who want the art for the art generally won't be bidding.

When no one in the room gives a crap about the quality, lower quality won't diminish the price. The international attention and the constant work of the auction house and seller, however, will.
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#17 Sep 10 2013 at 11:55 AM Rating: Excellent
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
Yeah, but when the biggest selling point is going to be a really big selling point, it's worth noting.

This is a painting that has massive international attention, right now.
Meaning it'll likely drop in value once the news cycle moves on to other things. Curiosity piece with a nice bit of intrigue, don't break the bank to get it though.
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#18 Sep 10 2013 at 12:06 PM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
Yeah, but when the biggest selling point is going to be a really big selling point, it's worth noting.

This is a painting that has massive international attention, right now.
Meaning it'll likely drop in value once the news cycle moves on to other things. Curiosity piece with a nice bit of intrigue, don't break the bank to get it though.


Well most art is considered a super long-term investment. A drop in interest can still be a big profit, if you take interest rates into account.

It'll come down to how well the buyers judge the story and how it'll sell down the road. "Lost for a hundred years," is a really nice tag line to add.

It's also worth remembering that, even if this isn't one of Van Gogh's greatest pieces, it's far from being one of his worst. And the Van Gogh name essentially ensures that it will not depreciate in value, which is a risk you might be taking with less-famous names.

There's almost no chance that a buyer wouldn't make back their investment, with extensive profit, at whatever they might buy this painting at now. Short of going bankrupt in the meantime, it's about as solid an investment you could possibly make in the art field.

A solid work from a solid name with a solid backstory. Pretty much the trifecta.
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#19 Sep 10 2013 at 1:15 PM Rating: Good
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I'm a little disappointed that this thread isn't about the Ian Banks books.
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#20 Sep 10 2013 at 2:40 PM Rating: Decent
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
It'll come down to how well the buyers judge the story and how it'll sell down the road. "Lost for a hundred years," is a really nice tag line to add.


Agree. Problem is that once found, the value added for having been "lost for a hundred years" diminishes over time. So that factor is going to make it more expensive (relatively speaking) today than say in another hundred years of not being lost.
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#21 Sep 10 2013 at 3:19 PM Rating: Default
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
Yeah, but when the biggest selling point is going to be a really big selling point, it's worth noting.

This is a painting that has massive international attention, right now. Most people buying this art don't actually know much or give a **** about art. They're generally people who see a pretty painting and want the social accolades of owning it.

Being the person to own a long-lost painting is going to be a really big seller. I'd wager far more so than if this was the single best painting Van Gogh had ever put brush to.

Remember, the vast majority of the people who will be bidding on this painting will be significantly less interested in art than you are. As a matter of fact, because it's not an impressive work relative to his other pieces, the people who want the art for the art generally won't be bidding.

When no one in the room gives a crap about the quality, lower quality won't diminish the price. The international attention and the constant work of the auction house and seller, however, will.


This.
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#22 Sep 10 2013 at 4:05 PM Rating: Decent
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I still think I bear a strong resemblance to the artist. That is all.
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#23 Sep 10 2013 at 4:53 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
It'll come down to how well the buyers judge the story and how it'll sell down the road. "Lost for a hundred years," is a really nice tag line to add.


Agree. Problem is that once found, the value added for having been "lost for a hundred years" diminishes over time. So that factor is going to make it more expensive (relatively speaking) today than say in another hundred years of not being lost.


True, but the chances of the painting not being extensively more valuable in a century, regardless of its value relative to other Van Gogh works, is much lower.

But the worth of the story could make it more valuable in the interim, which is relatively attractive. If inflation remains at around 3%, the chance of this painting depreciating to the point it wasn't a worthwhile purchase are next to nil. And no one buys paintings as a short-term investment.

That said, what this story DOES do are likely quite attractive for the average customer at this pricepoint in the market.

1. It's a talking piece. If you're a billionaire looking to drop some dough on a painting, you probably care a lot more about the story you can use to get you laid than having the apex of Van Gogh's work. Particularly when you probably couldn't actually tell anyone what's valuable about his best pieces, anyway.

2. It's more desirable in the immediate future, in case you need to sell it off. One of the biggest risks of buying artwork is the chance that you'll hit hard times and need to sell off pieces. Because as soon as people see you selling your art, they know you have to sell it. That drives the price down. Something like this, that you can sell off without too much alarm, is actually fairly desirable. Because it isn't actually the crown jewel of a collection, parting with it wouldn't set off many bells. Particularly not when the novelty effect wearing off alone could explain away why you'd be tired of it.

Nice thing is that "lost for 100 years" could still be used to get someone else laid, so they'd probably still be interested a decade or two down the line. And even though it won't be as valuable, relatively speaking, the inflation rates alone should more than cover your investment.
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#24 Sep 10 2013 at 5:03 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
I still think I bear a strong resemblance to the artist. That is all.
Are you missing an ear too?
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#25 Sep 10 2013 at 6:15 PM Rating: Decent
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
But the worth of the story could make it more valuable in the interim, which is relatively attractive. If inflation remains at around 3%, the chance of this painting depreciating to the point it wasn't a worthwhile purchase are next to nil. And no one buys paintings as a short-term investment.


Do you see the problem?


I agree that whomever buys it almost certainly will buy it because of the whole "lost for 100 years" bit, and will pay a pretty penny for it. But once the novelty/buzz wears off, it wont be worth as much. So that person had better really want the novelty and not care much about value on the market. To be fair, that likely describes most collectors of such things. I'm just saying that the pitch you're giving is exactly what someone selling the painting would use to maximize the amount he can get. Nothing wrong with that, but how much it's really going to sell for will depend on whether people buy the pitch or see through it (and/or don't care about the value anyway).
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#26 Sep 10 2013 at 6:42 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
But the worth of the story could make it more valuable in the interim, which is relatively attractive. If inflation remains at around 3%, the chance of this painting depreciating to the point it wasn't a worthwhile purchase are next to nil. And no one buys paintings as a short-term investment.


Do you see the problem?


I agree that whomever buys it almost certainly will buy it because of the whole "lost for 100 years" bit, and will pay a pretty penny for it. But once the novelty/buzz wears off, it wont be worth as much. So that person had better really want the novelty and not care much about value on the market. To be fair, that likely describes most collectors of such things. I'm just saying that the pitch you're giving is exactly what someone selling the painting would use to maximize the amount he can get. Nothing wrong with that, but how much it's really going to sell for will depend on whether people buy the pitch or see through it (and/or don't care about the value anyway).


Yes, but that is the reality of the art market. People don't want Van Gogh because he was the greatest artist to ever live (well, I'm sure that's why SOME people want Van Gogh, but I'm doubting there's a meaningful overlap between those people and people who happen to own Van Gogh pieces). People buy art because it's a status symbol and because much of it isn't going to depreciate in value over time.

At least, that's the case where these price levels are concerned. ANY Van Gogh piece is going to nab you a very, very pretty penny far down the line when you finally sell it, in 30+ years (or when your grand kids sell it, whatever). The chances that the market won't inflate to that point are very low. It's an incredibly safe investment, because the chances of his works being unwanted even a century from now are next to nothing.

So what you pay for a Van Gogh right now doesn't actually matter much when calculating the value when you sell it. Sure, it certainly matters to you right now, but the difference between 3.4 mil and 3.5 mil won't be felt nearly as much if you go to sell it in 20 years as it would if you go to sell it in 1 year. It's essentially the difference between 6.8 and 7 million.

Enough to care? Sure.

Enough to care so much you don't bother nabbing the bragging rights to this painting right now when you're in a position to drop 4 million dollars without a care in the world? Absolutely not.

And that's generally the case with the sorts of people buying such big name pieces. Bidding wars ensue over the name alone, even for lesser works. A decent work, at the apex of his career, with a solid story behind it? I would not be surprised at all if this sold for more than one of his better (but not top-15) works sold.

Because, honestly, unless it's a painting that EVERYONE knows, like Starry Night or his self portrait, most of the potential buyers couldn't give two ***** about the quality.

Van Gogh's single greatest work of art, if it doesn't have a famous title, would absolutely sell for less than this painting here. It would absolutely, strictly speaking, be the better investment, but since the higher priced option is still an extremely solid investment, who cares? There's only so many to go around, after all.
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#27 Sep 10 2013 at 7:17 PM Rating: Decent
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Oh. I'm not doubting at all that someone will pay an exorbitant amount for it.
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#28 Sep 10 2013 at 7:30 PM Rating: Decent
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I agree that whomever buys it almost certainly will buy it because of the whole "lost for 100 years" bit, and will pay a pretty penny for it. But once the novelty/buzz wears off


Interesting provenance very rarely "wears off" in the high end art market. It's not going to be Starry Night or Sunflowers in 20 yeas, but it's also not going to be those tomorrow. It will, almost certainly, be worth more than an piece of equivalent quality with a less interesting history.
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#29 Sep 10 2013 at 7:34 PM Rating: Decent
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At least, that's the case where these price levels are concerned. ANY Van Gogh piece is going to nab you a very, very pretty penny far down the line when you finally sell it, in 30+ years

Impossible to say, really. The only people who think any open market always appreciates at a rate better than inflation are people who don't understand that market.
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#30 Sep 10 2013 at 7:39 PM Rating: Decent
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Debalic wrote:
I still think I bear a strong resemblance to the artist. That is all.
Are you missing an ear too?

No, but I may very well have syph.
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#31 Sep 11 2013 at 3:17 AM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Debalic wrote:
I still think I bear a strong resemblance to the artist. That is all.
Are you missing an ear too?

No, but I may very well have syph.
You should probably use a condom next time you go to visit the prostitutes.
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#32 Sep 11 2013 at 3:50 AM Rating: Good
Van Gogh's are too depressing after Dr. Who. They used to make me happy, but now they make me sad.
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#33 Sep 11 2013 at 4:13 AM Rating: Good
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Omegavegeta wrote:
Van Gogh's are too depressing after Dr. Who. They used to make me happy, but now they make me sad.


To be fair, I haven't actually seen that episode, but wasn't the plot line that they brought Van Gogh to the MOMA exhibit to show him that his work would last far beyond his lifetime?

That sounds like a really affirming story to me, not a depressing one.
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#34 Sep 11 2013 at 4:49 AM Rating: Good
Watch the rest of it & get back to me.
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#35 Sep 11 2013 at 5:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Omegavegeta wrote:
Watch the rest of it & get back to me.
Why not just kill him yourself? Would be less cruel.
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#36 Sep 11 2013 at 6:03 AM Rating: Good
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Why not just kill him yourself? Would be less cruel.


It could have been worse: Like the last 5 minutes of The Angels Take Manhattan.
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#37 Sep 11 2013 at 6:52 AM Rating: Decent
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Debalic wrote:
His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Debalic wrote:
I still think I bear a strong resemblance to the artist. That is all.
Are you missing an ear too?

No, but I may very well have syph.
You should probably use a condom next time you go to visit the prostitutes.

When I was young and stupid I had a habit of going in naked and hitting the low-hanging fruit. Now that I'm older and stupid, I got married.
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#38 Sep 11 2013 at 7:20 AM Rating: Good
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Omegavegeta wrote:
Watch the rest of it & get back to me.
Pass. He go Kurt Cobain?
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#39 Sep 11 2013 at 1:49 PM Rating: Good
It's a fixed time event, which makes it even more depressing...
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#40 Sep 11 2013 at 7:52 PM Rating: Good
Oddly enough, the "new" Van Gogh may actually have the TARDIS in it!

Art imitates art via time travel? Weird.
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#41 Sep 12 2013 at 4:47 AM Rating: Good
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Yeah... not even close.
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#42 Sep 12 2013 at 6:21 AM Rating: Good
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You know how dust balls, like clouds, can take on familiar shapes?

Yesterday I noticed a dust ball on my floor that was oddly shaped like a frog. Turns out it was a frog, covered in dust. Just a teeny thing, dime-sized, and stiff as a board.

Sometimes things are what they seem.
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#43 Sep 12 2013 at 7:33 AM Rating: Good
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Looks like a building drawn with finger paints.
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