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That's what they want you to think. Pay in cash and stay off the internet!

Gonna stay this way for a while.

Why?

Dragons would be bad ***.

I wish we had a dragon for president

The threat of the US & Co. intervening & making him lose his civil war. The whole "red line" thing came out of the fact that based on our intelligence the Assad regime was getting ready to use Chems, Obama yelled at him, & they backed down then. I actually don't think Assad signed off on the chems, based on the chatter that was intercepted, the fact that UN inspectors were in country, & the fact that our intel didn't pick up on them getting ready to use them. I also doubt the Rebels or Al Queda used them, as if they had Assad probably would have let the inspectors investigate immediately and could have swooped in and been a hero to his people.

The threat of the US & Co. intervening & making him lose his civil war. The whole "red line" thing came out of the fact that based on our intelligence the Assad regime was getting ready to use Chems, Obama yelled at him, & they backed down then. I actually don't think Assad signed off on the chems, based on the chatter that was intercepted, the fact that UN inspectors were in country, & the fact that our intel didn't pick up on them getting ready to use them. I also doubt the Rebels or Al Queda used them, as if they had Assad probably would have let the inspectors investigate immediately and could have swooped in and been a hero to his people.

Holy fuck. No idea where to start, really. Your opinion would literally seem more credible if you just quoted dialogue verbatim from an episode of "24". Targeted strikes expressly designed not to effect the outcome of the civil war were going to cause him to loose the civil war?? Assad would have given up national sovereignty cavalierly if the opposition had used chemical weapons?

What fucking universe do you live in?

Liberal dragons breathe blue fire. Conservative dragons breathe red fire.

Duh.

The same day the poll went into the field. Not the same day the poll results were released. You're right! No political hack has *ever* put a poll in the field, knowing what the result would be, with the intention of supporting the intended action of his guy. That never happens. Oh wait! It happens all the damn time.


Obama never intended to take any military action in Syria. Everything he's done has been to allow him to not do anything, despite his "red line" statement, while making sure everyone and his mother knows that his decision to not do anything was what everyone wanted him to do in the first place. It's not just about whether to ask for congressional approval, but also how this whole thing has been dragged out in the public so as to build as much opposition to action as possible.

I happen to think that it semi-backfired on him, but I do think that was his plan. I'm sure he'll be able to put a positive spin on it though, and I'm also sure that the media will lap it up and regurgitate it for him.

Seriously? You've resorted to clinging to polling conspiracy theories? This is your argument now?

Hey, maybe next you'll talk about the oversampling!

I think this is actually a great course of action for Russia. After selling chems to Syria, they get to take them back and, undoubtedly, sell them to Assad again in ten years! it's like the DEA drug trade: shake down dealers, take their dope, then sell it back to them.

Well, you're certainly the one to lecture us all about polling. I mean, with your 0-500 track record for being correct and all.

But that "born under a rock" comment was cutting and that's almost as good as credibility.

Why is Assad now offering to declare his Chems, give them up

He isn't. He's offering to pretend to, which, as it happens, isn't actually the same thing.


, & sign the Chemical Weapons Ban treaty

I'm not even going to address this one. Why sign a treaty after the consensus is that you've violated the terms of the treaty ex parte? See if you can riddle it out.


if his military:

1) Didn't Gas Civilians (Again, probably)
&
2) Isn't "afraid" of the US/France/England "punishing" him

For fuck sake, really? Because international diplomacy isn't the same as deciding if a child stole a fucking cookie. Let's look at the simplest possible reasons, shall we?

1. The chemical weapons are a hedge against Isreal's WMDs. A brokered solution involving the US neuters that threat.

2. Never used them, has no intent to, and the value of them as a political tool is actually *depreciated* by their apparent use. The value of removing them as a political tool increases greatly by their apparent use. "Benevolent old Bashir, he doesn't want to gas us so much he let the Russians take all of his gas supplies!"

3. Most importantly, and REALLY THE OBVIOUS ONE, Assad feels he's about to decisively win this war, OR, more likely has been provided the means and assurances to do so via back channels by the US. Let me emphasize again that this is almost certainly what's actually happening. The US has almost certainly brokered a conclusion to the primary military phase of the Syrian civil war that will result in Assad maintaining power (which is the outcome everyone in the international community wants regardless of "self determination" lip service) in exchange for a PR win for the current administration. I'd expect hostilities to be resolved by Spring '14.

This is how it works, you see. Everything you think you "understand" about how geopolitics work on a macro scale is wrong. Human life is cheap and essentially meaningless, ideological underpinnings don't matter, the US will smile and nod if a friendly regime slaughters it's citizens or cuts their hands off or kills women for reporting rape, etc. Regional stability where a nation state has significant economic interests is paramount. It's not a "conspiracy theory" to note this, it's just observation of the historical record. Now, of course, shit happens. Assad might get killed. The rebels might get lucky. Realpolitik fails all the time, just far less than ideologies do. In the short term, anyway. In the long term the powerful generally get what they want or decide they don't want it anymore.