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The Measure of SuccessFollow

#27 Jun 20 2013 at 2:04 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.
It's not a comparison. It's a list. That's all it is, smartypants.

It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value. Unemployment rates go up and down as much from the work force shrinking and contracting as much as job creation. But job numbers rarely go negative - particularly when the country as a whole is growing out of a recession

The article suggests that job numbers grew because their perspective state governments either stimulated the economy or cut corporate tax rates. Would that lead one to hypothesize that those states that didn't add jobs perhaps suffered under a government that did neither and therefore job loss or gain would be more dependent on federal legislation or simply stalled??

Sure, there are lots of underlying factors. Despite Maine's decrease in jobs unemployment dropped during the same time period. So obviously the work force shrunk.
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#28 Jun 20 2013 at 2:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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There nothing wrong with the data, unless you try and interpret it.

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I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
Not as much fun as witch burning but at least it's legal.
There are ways around that inconvenience: "It's coming right for us!" and such.
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#29 Jun 20 2013 at 5:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
It's not a comparison. It's a list. That's all it is, smartypants.


Okay, it's a list which you are using to draw comparisons. Same difference.

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#30 Jun 20 2013 at 6:30 PM Rating: Decent
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It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value

Wrong. We can agree to disagree if you like, but of course, you'll still be wrong.
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#31 Jun 20 2013 at 9:42 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.

What would be better, county? CSAs?
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#32 Jun 21 2013 at 6:01 AM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.

What would be better, county? CSAs?
To make any comparisons among states at all, you'd have to at least normalize the numbers; Convert them to per capita or percent of jobs by population or geographically if you want.



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#33 Jun 21 2013 at 6:50 AM Rating: Decent
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To make any comparisons among states at all, you'd have to at least normalize the numbers; Convert them to per capita or percent of jobs by population or geographically if you want.

You'd have to do more than that. You'd have to weight for factors government can't control, like one state sitting on a massive N Gas lake, and one state having no ports. A fishing boom probably doesn't help Iowa much, an oil boom probably doesn't help Virginia, etc.
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#34 Jun 21 2013 at 7:13 AM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
His Excellency Aethien wrote:
someproteinguy wrote:
I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
Not as much fun as witch burning but at least it's legal.
There are ways around that inconvenience: "It's coming right for us!" and such.
What's the buzzword this cycle? Is it still terrorist? Just use whatever it is.
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I think it’s the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately.
#35 Jun 24 2013 at 11:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Elinda wrote:
Jobs. jobs. jobs.

Since the recession hit in 2008 I've heard so much rhetoric about government's role in creating jobs I could puke.

Pew released this chart last week showing job growth by state. Only three states failed to add jobs - WI, WY, and ME.

Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).


Fulltime jobs with benefits? Where?!?! Most of the jobs I've interviewed for were doing the "we're waiting to see how the economy does" - and they keep the position open, never hiring anyone. Lots of part time jobs - most people I knew were working 3 or 4 of those just to make ends meet.
#36 Jun 25 2013 at 7:09 AM Rating: Decent
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Fulltime jobs with benefits? Where?!?! Most of the jobs I've interviewed for were doing the "we're waiting to see how the economy does" - and they keep the position open, never hiring anyone.

Stab them. You'll probably get the next job you interview for, although it may or may not involve stamping license plates.
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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#37 Jun 25 2013 at 9:50 AM Rating: Good
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#38 Jun 25 2013 at 3:26 PM Rating: Default
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Elinda wrote:
It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value. Unemployment rates go up and down as much from the work force shrinking and contracting as much as job creation. But job numbers rarely go negative - particularly when the country as a whole is growing out of a recession

The article suggests that job numbers grew because their perspective state governments either stimulated the economy or cut corporate tax rates. Would that lead one to hypothesize that those states that didn't add jobs perhaps suffered under a government that did neither and therefore job loss or gain would be more dependent on federal legislation or simply stalled??


What I don't get is that you're asking people to speculate about why something happened, but then when someone (like myself) does just that, you don't like the answer. There is not enough data readily available for any of us to do more than toss out possible explanations (including potential zombie apocalypses). It could be any of a combination of hundreds of different factors.

As I said earlier, employment rates are not uniform. You can't expect that because unemployment is dropping nationwide that this must mean that all states unemployment rates will drop. It's not unusual at all to have 47 states rates drop and 3 to rise during a period in which the national rates dropped. Yet you're insisting that we accept your premise that this is somehow unusual and requires a special explanation. It doesn't. I know it's unsatisfying, but there really is no magical answer to the question you're asking.

Quote:
Sure, there are lots of underlying factors. Despite Maine's decrease in jobs unemployment dropped during the same time period. So obviously the work force shrunk.


And maybe folks moved to another state with a lower unemployment rate, resulting in an increase in work force greater than the increase in jobs in that state, thus causing its rate to rise even while the rest of the nations dropped? Hypothetical? Sure. Point being we can make guesses all day long. At issue (which I mentioned before) is whether the increases in those three states represent an actual problem rather than statistical static. And the answer I gave you initially still stands: One year of delta isn't sufficient to make that declaration. It's not enough data points over a long enough period to see a trend.
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#39 Jun 26 2013 at 8:23 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Point being we can make guesses all day long.
Well, you can make guesses all day long. Everyone else is content with using data and facts.
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#40 Jun 27 2013 at 12:19 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Point being we can make guesses all day long.
Well, you can make guesses all day long. Everyone else is content with using data and facts.


She didn't ask about the data and facts though. She presented the data and then asked what people thought those data meant, or what might have caused them. If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
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#41 Jun 27 2013 at 12:21 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
It's like you're new here.
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George Carlin wrote:
I think it’s the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately.
#42 Jun 27 2013 at 1:14 PM Rating: Good
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
It's like you're new here.

Cite?
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