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#1 Jun 18 2013 at 11:51 AM Rating: Good
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Jobs. jobs. jobs.

Since the recession hit in 2008 I've heard so much rhetoric about government's role in creating jobs I could puke.

Pew released this chart last week showing job growth by state. Only three states failed to add jobs - WI, WY, and ME.

Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).










Edited, Jun 18th 2013 7:53pm by Elinda
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#2 Jun 18 2013 at 11:58 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elinda wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).
All three are bordered by states that had a increase in the number of jobs. Clearly the other states are just stealing their jobs.

Edited, Jun 18th 2013 10:59am by someproteinguy
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#3 Jun 18 2013 at 12:55 PM Rating: Decent
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someproteinguy wrote:
Elinda wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).
All three are bordered by states that had a increase in the number of jobs. Clearly the other states are just stealing their jobs.

Edited, Jun 18th 2013 10:59am by someproteinguy

Or, they're barren, useless wastelands.
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#4 Jun 18 2013 at 1:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'd imagine the three states are already hit a 1:1 job to person ratio. All twelve of them are employed.
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#5 Jun 18 2013 at 1:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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This explains why Scott Walker is running ads in Illinois saying businesses should move to WI.
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#6 Jun 18 2013 at 2:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Elinda wrote:
Pew released this chart last week showing job growth by state. Only three states failed to add jobs - WI, WY, and ME.

Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).


Those are deltas over the last year. You have to look at where they were then and where they are now relative to other states. Wyoming, for example, currently has an unemployment rate of 4.8%. So the fact that it went *up* last year isn't exactly a disaster. Maine and Wisconsin are ranked 24th and 29th respectively. So none of them doing horribly.
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#7 Jun 19 2013 at 2:54 AM Rating: Good
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i'm pretty sure that most the biggest gainer states are all taking advantage of extraction of natural resources type jobs. as in the kind that are not permanent or sustainable.
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#8 Jun 19 2013 at 3:35 AM Rating: Decent
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Wisconsin is a shithole. Buncha toothless cousinfuckers.

Job growth numbers (or the lack thereof) be damned.

This has nothing at all to do with Football. Nope not one bit.


-NW


Edited, Jun 19th 2013 2:36am by NaughtyWord
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#9 Jun 19 2013 at 6:04 AM Rating: Good
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My family is all from WI and while my mom and dad were both toothless, they had/have very nice dentures. You'd never know they weren't real. Smiley: grin

There is this article that sort of accompanied the chart. The reasons given for job creation from state to state were of two broad categories - government funded stimulus, mostly investment in infrastructure and secondly were corporate tax cuts.

They gave no reasons whey the failing states failed, but clearly WI was the biggest 'fail'.
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#10 Jun 19 2013 at 6:33 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
[quote=Elinda]
Those are deltas over the last year. You have to look at where they were then and where they are now relative to other states. Wyoming, for example, currently has an unemployment rate of 4.8%. So the fact that it went *up* last year isn't exactly a disaster. Maine and Wisconsin are ranked 24th and 29th respectively. So none of them doing horribly.
The chart is illustrating job growth from state to state over the last year.

Regardless of their unemployment rate before April-2012, three states failed to create any jobs and in fact lost jobs. ie they didn't grow economically, they contracted.

That's all.





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#11 Jun 19 2013 at 7:35 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elinda wrote:
You'd never know they weren't real.
We do now.
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#12 Jun 19 2013 at 7:45 PM Rating: Default
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Elinda wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Those are deltas over the last year. You have to look at where they were then and where they are now relative to other states. Wyoming, for example, currently has an unemployment rate of 4.8%. So the fact that it went *up* last year isn't exactly a disaster. Maine and Wisconsin are ranked 24th and 29th respectively. So none of them doing horribly.
The chart is illustrating job growth from state to state over the last year.

Regardless of their unemployment rate before April-2012, three states failed to create any jobs and in fact lost jobs. ie they didn't grow economically, they contracted.


Right. But job creation isn't the same nationwide. Another way of looking at it is that maybe those three states experienced increased job growth a year or two ago, while other states didn't. Now those other states are catching up, while they're bouncing back a bit. What matters is the resulting unemployment rate, not the deltas, and certainly not deltas over such a short period of time.

If state A and state B both start with 8% unemployment in year 0, then state A drops its unemployment by 3.5% in year 1, while state A stays the same (so A is at 4.5%, while state B is at 8%), then in year 2, state A's unemployment increased by .5%, while state B drops by 3%, which state is better off? Both are the same. If you look at the two year change, both decreased unemployment by 3% from 8% to 5%. The fact that they took slightly different routes getting there isn't something we can say is relevant just by looking at the last year delta.

Now if state A continues to lose jobs while state B grains them *then* you can declare some kind of problem for state A. Numbers like these could easily be explained by some states spending more on job creation in past years and less last year, while others did the opposite. There's just not enough data just in that one year delta for us to assume anything significant about the "why" question.

Edited, Jun 19th 2013 6:45pm by gbaji
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#13 Jun 19 2013 at 9:25 PM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:
You'd never know they weren't real.
We do now.
At least until this thread dies and everyone forgets about it.
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#14 Jun 20 2013 at 6:56 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Elinda wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Those are deltas over the last year. You have to look at where they were then and where they are now relative to other states. Wyoming, for example, currently has an unemployment rate of 4.8%. So the fact that it went *up* last year isn't exactly a disaster. Maine and Wisconsin are ranked 24th and 29th respectively. So none of them doing horribly.
The chart is illustrating job growth from state to state over the last year.

Regardless of their unemployment rate before April-2012, three states failed to create any jobs and in fact lost jobs. ie they didn't grow economically, they contracted.


Right. But job creation isn't the same nationwide. Another way of looking at it is that maybe those three states experienced increased job growth a year or two ago, while other states didn't......

But the chart isn't about those other years.

Couldn't read no further.
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#15 Jun 20 2013 at 7:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
But job creation isn't the same nationwide. Another way of looking at it is that maybe those three states experienced increased job growth a year or two ago, while other states didn't.
Maybe those other states were victims of a zombie outbreak and had to put job creation on hold so they neither lost nor gained in the previous year. You aren't accounting for a zombie apocalypse?

Edited, Jun 20th 2013 9:26am by lolgaxe
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#16 Jun 20 2013 at 11:19 AM Rating: Good
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I don't think that Gbaji is incorrect about looking at these statistics outside a vacuum.
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#17 Jun 20 2013 at 11:22 AM Rating: Good
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It is pretty incorrect when he argues against them with hypotheticals.
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#18 Jun 20 2013 at 11:25 AM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
he argues against them with hypotheticals.



Gbaji modus operandi.

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#19 Jun 20 2013 at 11:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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Timelordwho wrote:
I don't think that Gbaji is incorrect about looking at these statistics outside a vacuum.

Heretic.
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#20 Jun 20 2013 at 11:32 AM Rating: Excellent
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I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
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#21 Jun 20 2013 at 11:54 AM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
I don't think that Gbaji is incorrect about looking at these statistics outside a vacuum.
Sure, if the answer you're looking for is outside of the vacuum.

This chart I put up, yes it's just a snapshot, but it has it's own story that can be told without any additional information. The accompanying explanation and the question I posed are simple and straightforward and can be accomplished with the information presented.

gbaji didn't even attempt to answer the question, but instead he just went running off to gbajiland, fingers all a flight atop his keyboard, overusing the word delta and never getting close to making a salient point.

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#22 Jun 20 2013 at 11:54 AM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.

I'll bring the pudgy pie irons.
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#23 Jun 20 2013 at 12:00 PM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
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#24 Jun 20 2013 at 12:11 PM Rating: Excellent
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After looking at the data, WY has a very low UER(4.8%) so it's difficult for them to add new jobs, WI has a large portion of it's constituents working in the manufacturing sector, which has been one of the most hard hit sectors, apart from construction, and they have one of the lower UER's for the great lakes region, Maine is of course affected by the construction/housing market failures as they provide materials for much of the regional construction. Maine also has the misfortune of being Maine. Granted, there are more exacting analysis-es of the general policy and economic transformations which caused these states specifically to go into the red with regards to job creation.

Here is a map of states by UER, if you'd like to see the trajectories If you zoom in, you can also see the delta for counties and metro areas.
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#25 Jun 20 2013 at 1:06 PM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
Not as much fun as witch burning but at least it's legal.
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#26 Jun 20 2013 at 1:42 PM Rating: Decent
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Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.
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#27 Jun 20 2013 at 2:04 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.
It's not a comparison. It's a list. That's all it is, smartypants.

It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value. Unemployment rates go up and down as much from the work force shrinking and contracting as much as job creation. But job numbers rarely go negative - particularly when the country as a whole is growing out of a recession

The article suggests that job numbers grew because their perspective state governments either stimulated the economy or cut corporate tax rates. Would that lead one to hypothesize that those states that didn't add jobs perhaps suffered under a government that did neither and therefore job loss or gain would be more dependent on federal legislation or simply stalled??

Sure, there are lots of underlying factors. Despite Maine's decrease in jobs unemployment dropped during the same time period. So obviously the work force shrunk.
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#28 Jun 20 2013 at 2:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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There nothing wrong with the data, unless you try and interpret it.

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I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
Not as much fun as witch burning but at least it's legal.
There are ways around that inconvenience: "It's coming right for us!" and such.
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#29 Jun 20 2013 at 5:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
It's not a comparison. It's a list. That's all it is, smartypants.


Okay, it's a list which you are using to draw comparisons. Same difference.

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#30 Jun 20 2013 at 6:30 PM Rating: Decent
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It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value

Wrong. We can agree to disagree if you like, but of course, you'll still be wrong.
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#31 Jun 20 2013 at 9:42 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.

What would be better, county? CSAs?
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#32 Jun 21 2013 at 6:01 AM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:
Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).

No, and this is a borderline useless metric in any case. "States" are such asymmetrical geographic and demographic groups as to make most comparisons meaningless. You can drive any narrative you like with isolated statistics.

What would be better, county? CSAs?
To make any comparisons among states at all, you'd have to at least normalize the numbers; Convert them to per capita or percent of jobs by population or geographically if you want.



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#33 Jun 21 2013 at 6:50 AM Rating: Decent
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To make any comparisons among states at all, you'd have to at least normalize the numbers; Convert them to per capita or percent of jobs by population or geographically if you want.

You'd have to do more than that. You'd have to weight for factors government can't control, like one state sitting on a massive N Gas lake, and one state having no ports. A fishing boom probably doesn't help Iowa much, an oil boom probably doesn't help Virginia, etc.
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#34 Jun 21 2013 at 7:13 AM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
I think it's time for a good 'ol fashioned strawman burning.
Not as much fun as witch burning but at least it's legal.
There are ways around that inconvenience: "It's coming right for us!" and such.
What's the buzzword this cycle? Is it still terrorist? Just use whatever it is.
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#35 Jun 24 2013 at 11:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Elinda wrote:
Jobs. jobs. jobs.

Since the recession hit in 2008 I've heard so much rhetoric about government's role in creating jobs I could puke.

Pew released this chart last week showing job growth by state. Only three states failed to add jobs - WI, WY, and ME.

Surely there isn't a single cause for each of these states failing to grow their respective economies, but do you think there a contributing cause shared among the three (and/or other poor performers).


Fulltime jobs with benefits? Where?!?! Most of the jobs I've interviewed for were doing the "we're waiting to see how the economy does" - and they keep the position open, never hiring anyone. Lots of part time jobs - most people I knew were working 3 or 4 of those just to make ends meet.
#36 Jun 25 2013 at 7:09 AM Rating: Decent
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Fulltime jobs with benefits? Where?!?! Most of the jobs I've interviewed for were doing the "we're waiting to see how the economy does" - and they keep the position open, never hiring anyone.

Stab them. You'll probably get the next job you interview for, although it may or may not involve stamping license plates.
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#37 Jun 25 2013 at 9:50 AM Rating: Good
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#38 Jun 25 2013 at 3:26 PM Rating: Default
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Elinda wrote:
It's a list that shows how many jobs each state created last year. There were three states that didn't create jobs at all, but lost jobs. That fact holds value. Unemployment rates go up and down as much from the work force shrinking and contracting as much as job creation. But job numbers rarely go negative - particularly when the country as a whole is growing out of a recession

The article suggests that job numbers grew because their perspective state governments either stimulated the economy or cut corporate tax rates. Would that lead one to hypothesize that those states that didn't add jobs perhaps suffered under a government that did neither and therefore job loss or gain would be more dependent on federal legislation or simply stalled??


What I don't get is that you're asking people to speculate about why something happened, but then when someone (like myself) does just that, you don't like the answer. There is not enough data readily available for any of us to do more than toss out possible explanations (including potential zombie apocalypses). It could be any of a combination of hundreds of different factors.

As I said earlier, employment rates are not uniform. You can't expect that because unemployment is dropping nationwide that this must mean that all states unemployment rates will drop. It's not unusual at all to have 47 states rates drop and 3 to rise during a period in which the national rates dropped. Yet you're insisting that we accept your premise that this is somehow unusual and requires a special explanation. It doesn't. I know it's unsatisfying, but there really is no magical answer to the question you're asking.

Quote:
Sure, there are lots of underlying factors. Despite Maine's decrease in jobs unemployment dropped during the same time period. So obviously the work force shrunk.


And maybe folks moved to another state with a lower unemployment rate, resulting in an increase in work force greater than the increase in jobs in that state, thus causing its rate to rise even while the rest of the nations dropped? Hypothetical? Sure. Point being we can make guesses all day long. At issue (which I mentioned before) is whether the increases in those three states represent an actual problem rather than statistical static. And the answer I gave you initially still stands: One year of delta isn't sufficient to make that declaration. It's not enough data points over a long enough period to see a trend.
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#39 Jun 26 2013 at 8:23 AM Rating: Good
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Point being we can make guesses all day long.
Well, you can make guesses all day long. Everyone else is content with using data and facts.
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#40 Jun 27 2013 at 12:19 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Point being we can make guesses all day long.
Well, you can make guesses all day long. Everyone else is content with using data and facts.


She didn't ask about the data and facts though. She presented the data and then asked what people thought those data meant, or what might have caused them. If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
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#41 Jun 27 2013 at 12:21 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
It's like you're new here.
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#42 Jun 27 2013 at 1:14 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
If she were content with just the data and facts, she wouldn't have asked the question.
It's like you're new here.

Cite?
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