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Republicans pulled the fiscal emergency brakeFollow

#1 Jan 01 2013 at 10:38 PM Rating: Good
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Well, something is better than nothing.

The LA TImes wrote:
WASHINGTON — The House gave final approval Tuesday night to a bill to rescind tax increases for the vast majority of Americans, but only after a day of closed-door debate among Republicans, who were forced to allow a vote on a compromise many in their party disdained.

The final tally, 257 to 167, included most of the chamber’s Democrats and fewer than half of the Republican majority.

The deal, largely negotiated by Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), had passed the Senate early Tuesday morning. It blocked income tax hikes for roughly 99% of households, but allowed rates to rise for those with incomes above $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples.

It also renewed tax credits aimed at low-income households and college students, extended unemployment benefits, delayed automatic spending cuts in defense and other government programs for two months and resolved several other issues that Congress had left hanging.

The lopsided 89-8 vote in the Senate was engineered by McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to put as much pressure as possible on the House to follow suit. But as House Republicans gathered for the first of two private caucus meetings early on New Year’s afternoon, many vowed to resist.

The mood did not last.

Early in the evening, Republicans held a second caucus meeting. This time, take-out Chinese food replaced sandwiches, and resignation subbed for defiance.

Several Republicans said afterward they feared that, if the bill failed and taxes went up, their party would take the blame.
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#2 Jan 01 2013 at 11:09 PM Rating: Good
Obama wins.

Caveality.
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#3 Jan 02 2013 at 12:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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The Wall Street Journal notes the “tax changes included in the bill hashed out between the White House and congressional Republicans Monday includes the first increases in top income-tax rates in nearly two decades… For millions of wage earners, the most immediate effect would be the lapse of a two-percentage-point payroll-tax cut that was part of a deal President Barack Obama struck with Republicans late in 2010. It lowered to 4.2% from 6.2% the employee portion of the Social Security tax, allowing workers to keep more take-home pay.”

Politico: “But as big a deal as it was, it did little to address the nation’s long-term deficit problem — there’s nothing in it to pare back entitlement spending — or to defuse a potential crisis over raising the debt ceiling that could come as early as February.”

Other key features of the deal summarized by Suzy Khimm:

  • Tax rates will permanently rise to Clinton-era levels for families with income above $450,000 and individuals above $400,000. All income below the threshold will permanently be taxed at Bush-era rates.
  • The tax on capital gains and dividends will be permanently set at 20 percent for those with income above the $450,000/$400,000 threshold. It will remain at 15 percent for everyone else.
  • The estate tax will be set at 40 percent for those at the $450,000/$400,000 threshold, with a $5 million exemption indexed to inflation.
  • The phase out of personal exemptions will be reinstated with a starting income threshold for those making $250,000.
  • The sequester will be delayed for two months, paid for half by discretionary cuts and the other half will be offset by revenue raised by the voluntary transfer of traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs.



Edited, Jan 2nd 2013 12:08am by Jophiel
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#4 Jan 02 2013 at 12:53 AM Rating: Good
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So basically, they just procrastinated for 2 months with little actual happening aside from a tax increase for the top 1%?
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#5 Jan 02 2013 at 1:00 AM Rating: Excellent
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The whole social security withholding tax going up at least $1,000 for everyone thing still happens, which i find somewhat annoying. Sure its only what, $83 a month, but it was my $83 a month and I had plans for it. And they dragged it on long enough regardless that we're going to hit recession again, if not from this, but from anticipation of the debt ceiling negotiations happening in the next few weeks. Again. These idiots on both sides are playing nuclear brinksmanship with our economy and they should all be impeached for doing so.
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#6 Jan 02 2013 at 7:07 AM Rating: Decent
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These idiots on both sides

Nope.
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#7 Jan 02 2013 at 7:09 AM Rating: Good
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I'm going to track the careers of the seventy some republicans that voted for this and see if Grover destroys them.
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#8 Jan 02 2013 at 7:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elinda wrote:
I'm going to track the careers of the seventy some republicans that voted for this and see if Grover destroys them.

This is all I could see in my mind:
grover not happy
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#9 Jan 02 2013 at 7:45 AM Rating: Decent
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I figured they'd just let us go over the cliff. Deep spending cuts? Higher taxes? Both sides get what they want, and the American people...well, they don't really care about the people, so it's a win-win!
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#10 Jan 02 2013 at 11:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Sweep the mess under the rug for the next guys to take care of. Hopefully in a few months Congress and the Senate can agree to begin cutting the largest waste of federal dollars...the defense budget.
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#11 Jan 02 2013 at 12:47 PM Rating: Decent
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Sweep the mess under the rug for the next guys to take care of. Hopefully in a few months Congress and the Senate can agree to begin cutting the largest waste of federal dollars...the defense budget.

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#12 Jan 02 2013 at 3:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
These idiots on both sides

Nope.


So the democrats had a unanamous vote on that fiscal cliff compromise bill then eh? and weren't being even the slightest bit obstructionist about the whole process? Were there more idiots on the republican side this time? sure. Many of them criminally so. But there are more than a few idiots on the other side that should also be flogged. Repeatedly. Including the idiot in chief.
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#13 Jan 02 2013 at 4:03 PM Rating: Good
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Dread Lörd Kaolian wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:
These idiots on both sides

Nope.


So the democrats had a unanamous vote on that fiscal cliff compromise bill then eh? and weren't being even the slightest bit obstructionist about the whole process? Were there more idiots on the republican side this time? sure. Many of them criminally so. But there are more than a few idiots on the other side that should also be flogged. Repeatedly. Including the idiot in chief.


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#14gbaji, Posted: Jan 02 2013 at 7:53 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Yes. The Democratic Party controlled Senate waited until after midnight on New Years eve to finally get around to passing any sort of bill. You do understand that the House has passed several bills addressing this over the last few months, right?
#15 Jan 02 2013 at 7:58 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
His Excellency Aethien wrote:
So basically, they just procrastinated for 2 months with little actual happening aside from a tax increase for the top 1%?


Yes. The Democratic Party controlled Senate waited until after midnight on New Years eve to finally get around to passing any sort of bill. You do understand that the House has passed several bills addressing this over the last few months, right?


Wasn't there a big hollering about how the budget HAD to originate in the House according to the Constitution?
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#16 Jan 02 2013 at 8:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yes. The Democratic Party controlled Senate waited until after midnight on New Years eve to finally get around to passing any sort of bill. You do understand that the House has passed several bills addressing this over the last few months, right?


So did the senate. Lets face it, Congress, & the House especially, is the least effective branch of Government.

I doubt Boehner keeps his job Friday.
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#17 Jan 02 2013 at 8:04 PM Rating: Decent
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Dread Lörd Kaolian wrote:
The whole social security withholding tax going up at least $1,000 for everyone thing still happens, which i find somewhat annoying. Sure its only what, $83 a month, but it was my $83 a month and I had plans for it. And they dragged it on long enough regardless that we're going to hit recession again, if not from this, but from anticipation of the debt ceiling negotiations happening in the next few weeks. Again. These idiots on both sides are playing nuclear brinksmanship with our economy and they should all be impeached for doing so.


Honestly, while I understand the politics of the language choices surrounding this, the social security tax holiday ending was the one thing I didn't have a problem with (in terms of tax increases anyway). It should never have been reduced in the first place, really didn't help at all during the financial crisis, and created exactly the false sort of (but now my taxes are going up!) perception you mention. Payroll taxes are already not high enough to pay for SS and Medicare. While I'm not a huge fan of either program, especially as they are structured and funded, at least it's one tax that ensures that everyone has some skin in the game, and while it's still grossly tilted in terms of benefits versus dollars paid, it's at least less so than the rest of our tax/spend methodology.


IMO, the GOP basically won this round. By holding to a "no taxes at all" position, they got the Dems to agree to make the Bush taxes permanent (something they were not able to do back in 2001 when they controlled both houses) except for income over 400k. That's frankly a minor concession (and a hell of a lot better than the 200k level the Dems originally wanted), given the bigger gains. It's kinda like wanting a triple scoop ice cream cone with sprinkles on it, and getting a triple scoop ice cream cone, but with only 90% of the sprinkles you wanted.


The great thing is that they managed to do this while making the Dems think that they were putting one over on them, so a bunch of Republicans could vote against it in the house, still get the bill passed, and still keep their tax promises. It's like a double win really. Great job holding the line really.
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#18 Jan 02 2013 at 8:10 PM Rating: Default
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Omegavegeta wrote:
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Yes. The Democratic Party controlled Senate waited until after midnight on New Years eve to finally get around to passing any sort of bill. You do understand that the House has passed several bills addressing this over the last few months, right?


So did the senate.


No they didn't. Not one. A fact I'm sure whatever media you watch failed repeatedly to mention while falling over themselves to tell you about how the House Republicans were dragging their feet.

Quote:
Lets face it, Congress, & the House especially, is the least effective branch of Government.


The issue in this case has nothing to do with effectiveness.

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I doubt Boehner keeps his job Friday.


That's quite possible, but it certainly wont have anything to do with him failing to give the Democrats a better deal.
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#19 Jan 02 2013 at 8:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:

IMO, the GOP basically won this round. By holding to a "no taxes at all" position, they got the Dems to agree to make the Bush taxes permanent (something they were not able to do back in 2001 when they controlled both houses) except for income over 400k. That's frankly a minor concession (and a hell of a lot better than the 200k level the Dems originally wanted), given the bigger gains. It's kinda like wanting a triple scoop ice cream cone with sprinkles on it, and getting a triple scoop ice cream cone, but with only 90% of the sprinkles you wanted.

....Great job holding the line really.


So... they wanted "no taxes at all," got tax increases, and it's their victory? Well, as long as it makes you happy, keep saying that.

I would think a better analogy would be the GOP saying "We want free pizza!" and then being forced to pay for a salad and calling it a victory. Sure, it's still idiotic, but considering "conservatives" are crying that they are the losers of the deal and that Obama's supporters won, it's at least closer to the truth.

Not that I care. Stocks soared today Smiley: grin
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#20 Jan 02 2013 at 8:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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I am going to start keeping count of the number of times Gbaji say's "You do understand..."
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#21 Jan 02 2013 at 8:46 PM Rating: Default
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LockeColeMA wrote:
So... they wanted "no taxes at all," got tax increases, and it's their victory? Well, as long as it makes you happy, keep saying that.


They want taxes to be as low as possible. You need to look at this from a larger historical perspective to understand what I'm talking about.

Back in 2001, the GOP was able to get the Bush tax cuts in place, but could only get it past a Dem filibuster by including a sunset provision. Which is what brought us to this point in the first place. Yesterday, the Dems basically allowed 99+% of the Bush tax cuts to become permanent (no more sunset). That's a massive victory. If the cost of getting that is to allow taxes to go up a tiny amount on income over $400k, that's an acceptable price to pay.

The point of holding the line is about negotiation. If the GOP told the Dems that they were willing to give that $400k concession 2 months ago, the Dems would have held out for something better. You always start with the absolute and then negotiate.

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I would think a better analogy would be the GOP saying "We want free pizza!" and then being forced to pay for a salad and calling it a victory.


Only if you completely fail to grasp the fiscal objectives of the Right. And yes, there are a lot of stupid conservative pundits (radio talking heads really) who fail to grasp them as well. The broad objective is to minimize the tax burden on the people. That's the goal. The whole "rich vs poor" thing is really a Liberal issue. Obviously, in a perfect world, sanity would have won out and we would have made the Bush tax rates permanent for all income brackets, but in the big picture context, this was about the best win the GOP could have hoped for. And by making the whole thing about dickering over "taxes on the rich", the Left managed to become so obsessed over it that they failed to see that bigger picture. They fought so hard for those incredibly tiny tax increases that they were willing to basically give the GOP every thing else they wanted to get them. And "everything else" is stuff the Dems steadfastly opposed just a decade ago.

This was never about "taxes for the 98% versus taxes for the 2%" from the conservative perspective. But if letting the Left think that got us what we wanted, that's just peachy.

Quote:
Not that I care. Stocks soared today Smiley: grin


Yes. Because most of the people making decisions which affect those stock prices are fiscally conservative and they liked the deal. What part of "stocks plummet when Obama wins re-election" makes you think that markets respond favorably when liberals win?
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#22 Jan 02 2013 at 9:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
LockeColeMA wrote:
So... they wanted "no taxes at all," got tax increases, and it's their victory? Well, as long as it makes you happy, keep saying that.


They want taxes to be as low as possible. You need to look at this from a larger historical perspective to understand what I'm talking about.


Weird, I thought most GOPers wanted no taxes at all. I mean, you just wrote that, and it's what they campaigned on (and lost). And the Dems wanted taxes on the rich - which they did get. Which they got. So it seems everybody wins?

Quote:
Only if you completely fail to grasp the fiscal objectives of the Right. And yes, there are a lot of stupid conservative pundits (radio talking heads really) who fail to grasp them as well.

Well goodie! They should keep it up; I would love to see more compromise, especially since it's both benefitting the country and tearing the conservative voting base in twain. I'd actually like the GOP a lot more if they kicked out the social cons and only had the fiscal ones willing to compromise left.

Quote:
What part of "stocks plummet when Obama wins re-election" makes you think that markets respond favorably when liberals win?

Welllllll, they didn't. So... uh...

Hey, if conservatives say they lost, Democrats said they won, and I made money on the deal, I don't care how you spin it. Bring on more GOP losses! Or wins, from your view. They work for me! Smiley: nod

Edited, Jan 2nd 2013 10:22pm by LockeColeMA
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#23 Jan 02 2013 at 9:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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This should be good. Smiley: popcorn
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#24 Jan 02 2013 at 9:44 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
IMO, the GOP basically won this round.

Smiley: laugh I don't doubt that you think so.

Edited, Jan 2nd 2013 9:44pm by Jophiel
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#25 Jan 02 2013 at 9:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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No they didn't. Not one. A fact I'm sure whatever media you watch failed repeatedly to mention while falling over themselves to tell you about how the House Republicans were dragging their feet.


Untrue.

Quote:
The issue in this case has nothing to do with effectiveness.


And everything to do with one side's inability to work with the other to solve anything as "solving things" is a victory for Obama & a political liability amongst their constituents.

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(Boehner losing his job) s quite possible, but it certainly wont have anything to do with him failing to give the Democrats a better deal.


He sure stuck it to the Dems with all those spending cuts.

Oh, wait.
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#26 Jan 02 2013 at 10:28 PM Rating: Good
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Yesterday, the Dems basically allowed 99+% of the Bush tax cuts to become permanent (no more sunset). That's a massive victory.


I don't know how it's possible for one person to be so completely delusional, but it makes for a good laugh now and then.

The dems wanted a tax increase for the top 1% and without spending cuts. They got exactly that. The dems won this round. Anything else is a figment of your self-delusional imagination.
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#27 Jan 02 2013 at 11:13 PM Rating: Excellent
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BrownDuck wrote:
The dems wanted a tax increase for the top 1% and without spending cuts. They got exactly that. The dems won this round. Anything else is a figment of your self-delusional imagination.

The Democrats had been fighting to pass a bill cleanly making the tax cuts for everyone under $250k permanent so acting as though "we got the Democrats to make those taxes permanent!" is a coup is pretty funny but we all need our coping mechanisms.

The deal moved the ceiling up to $400/$450k instead of $250k which is a "win" in that it wasn't as bad as it could have been. On the other hand, Obama was previously negotiating a rate of 37% with Boehner but the Senate version set the rate at 39.6% instead which is an obvious loss for the GOP.

The real loss (Part A) is that the Democrats gained tax increases while giving up virtually nothing. When the next spending battle comes in a month or two, the Democrats will press for the GOP to compromise starting from nothing. GOP apologists who were saying "now the GOP will say 'You got yours so you have to give us this'" can't honestly be that naive.

Real loss (Part B) was the continued showing of Boehner as an inept and largely impotent Speaker. Failed to negotiate with Obama, tried to pull his "Plan B" stunt while blew up in his face, threw a little hissy fit and tried to shift blame onto the Senate Democrats only to have the Senate pass a bill that greatly benefited the Democrats and the House was forced to pass (breaking the Hastert Rule to put it on the floor) with a 2:1 ratio of Republicans siding against Boehner in the vote. He's still the odds-on favorite to win the gavel this week but there was nothing about this event that made him look like anything but a clown.

That's not even counting the cherry on top of the failure sundae: the Sandy Relief bill that was abandoned and Congress adjourned despite a clear majority of members voting "Aye" to stay in session. When Peter King says he's "done with the GOP" and hints at flipping parties (he won't), you've done a great job of making yourself look incompetent to everyone.

Edited, Jan 2nd 2013 11:16pm by Jophiel
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#28 Jan 03 2013 at 5:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:

Real loss (Part B) was the continued showing of Boehner as an inept and largely impotent Speaker. Failed to negotiate with Obama, tried to pull his "Plan B" stunt while blew up in his face, threw a little hissy fit and tried to shift blame onto the Senate Democrats only to have the Senate pass a bill that greatly benefited the Democrats and the House was forced to pass (breaking the Hastert Rule to put it on the floor) with a 2:1 ratio of Republicans siding against Boehner in the vote. He's still the odds-on favorite to win the gavel this week but there was nothing about this event that made him look like anything but a clown.

To be fair though, him getting caught by reporters telling Harry Reid to "shut the f*ck up" was pretty hilarious. I wonder if he's under a bit of pressure? Smiley: smile
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#29 Jan 03 2013 at 7:39 AM Rating: Good
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LockeColeMA wrote:
Jophiel wrote:

Real loss (Part B) was the continued showing of Boehner as an inept and largely impotent Speaker. Failed to negotiate with Obama, tried to pull his "Plan B" stunt while blew up in his face, threw a little hissy fit and tried to shift blame onto the Senate Democrats only to have the Senate pass a bill that greatly benefited the Democrats and the House was forced to pass (breaking the Hastert Rule to put it on the floor) with a 2:1 ratio of Republicans siding against Boehner in the vote. He's still the odds-on favorite to win the gavel this week but there was nothing about this event that made him look like anything but a clown.

To be fair though, him getting caught by reporters telling Harry Reid to "shut the f*ck up" was pretty hilarious. I wonder if he's under a bit of pressure? Smiley: smile

Chris Christie's Boehner rant was pretty good.
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#30 Jan 03 2013 at 1:53 PM Rating: Excellent
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In other news, Boehner was reelected as House speaker in a landslide of 220 votes, so we can hopefully expect more compromise in the new Congress Smiley: nod

Allen West (R-FL, just lost his seat) got two votes for the position Smiley: rolleyes

Edited, Jan 3rd 2013 2:59pm by LockeColeMA
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#31 Jan 03 2013 at 2:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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I am going to start keeping count of the number of times Gbaji say's "You do understand..."
We could make an Alma & Gbaji drinking game.
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#32 Jan 03 2013 at 5:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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I liked Christie's speach too, but I guess the goofs weren't enough to replace him. Can't say I'm surprised.
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#33 Jan 07 2013 at 9:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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I am going to start keeping count of the number of times Gbaji say's "You do understand..."
We could make an Alma & Gbaji drinking game.
We can call it "Liver Failure."
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#34 Jan 07 2013 at 9:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
So basically, they just procrastinated for 2 months with little actual happening aside from a tax increase for the top 1%?


Well, they did kick the can a little further down the road. That's something right?

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#35 Jan 07 2013 at 10:03 PM Rating: Default
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LockeColeMA wrote:
gbaji wrote:
LockeColeMA wrote:
So... they wanted "no taxes at all," got tax increases, and it's their victory? Well, as long as it makes you happy, keep saying that.


They want taxes to be as low as possible. You need to look at this from a larger historical perspective to understand what I'm talking about.


Weird, I thought most GOPers wanted no taxes at all. I mean, you just wrote that, and it's what they campaigned on (and lost).


I didn't write that, Locke wrote that. I wrote that the GOP want's taxes as low as possible. You don't keep taxes as low as possible by starting with a position of "well, we can raise taxes, but just some". You start with "no taxes at all. Ever. No way. No how", then you make the other side struggle to get even the tiniest tax increase.

Quote:
And the Dems wanted taxes on the rich - which they did get. Which they got. So it seems everybody wins?


The Dems want (need really) to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the social spending they believe is needed by the people. How they raise that is really irrelevant, but that's their real long term goal. How many times have we had an economic discussion on this forum where I mention how spending as a percentage of GDP has risen to 25% and the response by several people is that 25% isn't high enough? To pay for that the Dems have to raise taxes.

Given the economic situation and the control the Dems have, the GOP literally got the best outcome they could possibly have hoped for. The Dems got about the worst outcome they could have hoped for. Both sides can point to some aspects of this as a "win", but the reality is that the Dems have lost any ability to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the spending they've already committed to, let alone what they'd like to do going forward. That significantly weakens their position in the next rounds. Since "raising taxes" is now off the table, balancing the budget (or even making some strides in that direction) will require spending cuts. We've already taken the other side of the equation off the table.

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Only if you completely fail to grasp the fiscal objectives of the Right. And yes, there are a lot of stupid conservative pundits (radio talking heads really) who fail to grasp them as well.

Well goodie! They should keep it up; I would love to see more compromise, especially since it's both benefitting the country and tearing the conservative voting base in twain. I'd actually like the GOP a lot more if they kicked out the social cons and only had the fiscal ones willing to compromise left.


I think you grossly overestimate the degree to which the boogieman you've been told to be scared of (social conservatives) really influence conservative thought and GOP policies.

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What part of "stocks plummet when Obama wins re-election" makes you think that markets respond favorably when liberals win?

Welllllll, they didn't. So... uh...


The largest single day loss in the Dow Jones average in a year occurred the day after election day this last year. It's kinda hard to read anything into that other than that the markets were not happy that he won.
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#36 Jan 08 2013 at 1:20 AM Rating: Good
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The Dems want (need really) to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the social spending they believe is needed by the people.


Hate to be that guy but spending has been less under Dem control of the Senate and White House.
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#37 Jan 08 2013 at 7:24 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:


I didn't write that, Locke wrote that.


gbaji wrote:
By holding to a "no taxes at all" position


Odd, looks like you wrote that, and I agree, many in the GOP had a "no taxes at all" position. Glad they held to a no taxes at all position like you said, and then gave in.

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I think you grossly overestimate the degree to which the boogieman you've been told to be scared of (social conservatives) really influence conservative thought and GOP policies.


See, that's the funny thing. I've never been told to be scared of the social conservative boogeyman. Instead I read what they say, look at how many people actually believe what they say, and go "Oh, sh*t, those folks are both nuts, and a large portion of the GOP's voters." I actually do get my information from somewhere; and my information on conservative views come from conservative websites. And those people be nuts. I don't need liberal hosts to tell me to be scared; I read what they think for myself and go "Oh HELL no!"

You try to come off as a fiscal conservative most of the time; tell me, do YOU think the social conservatives are a good influence?

gbaji wrote:
Quote:
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What part of "stocks plummet when Obama wins re-election" makes you think that markets respond favorably when liberals win?

Welllllll, they didn't. So... uh...


The largest single day loss in the Dow Jones average in a year occurred the day after election day this last year. It's kinda hard to read anything into that other than that the markets were not happy that he won.

THE HORROR! We spiraled into a terrible downward spin, right? The worst single day loss in a year! It could not possibly be all those Romney supporters getting angry and selling their stocks, right?... or even worse, firing their employees over Obamacare? The market's never going to recover...

Oh wait, no. Dow Jones Stocks 5 days ago had the highest gain since December 2011. The S&P is at its highest point since 2007.

Yeah, the stock market hates Obama all right Smiley: nod

Edited, Jan 8th 2013 9:29am by LockeColeMA
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#38 Jan 08 2013 at 8:09 AM Rating: Good
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rdmcandie wrote:
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The Dems want (need really) to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the social spending they believe is needed by the people.


Hate to be that guy but spending has been less under Dem control of the Senate and White House.

How are we supposed to raise taxes with the Norquist mentality still in place?
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#39 Jan 08 2013 at 8:21 AM Rating: Decent
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The largest single day loss in the Dow Jones average in a year occurred the day after election day this last year. It's kinda hard to read anything into that other than that the markets were not happy that he won.

That makes sense. I guess the way we read the massive rally during Obama's first term is that he was astonishingly good for markets and they were amazingly happy about his presidency. Since we're correlating stock index pricing to job performance, right? Let's do that historically with various administrations and then judge which party is better for markets. I wonder how that will turn out.
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#40 Jan 08 2013 at 9:00 AM Rating: Excellent
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The largest single day loss in the Dow Jones average in a year occurred the day after election day this last year. It's kinda hard to read anything into that other than that the markets were not happy that he won.

That makes sense. I guess the way we read the massive rally during Obama's first term is that he was astonishingly good for markets and they were amazingly happy about his presidency. Since we're correlating stock index pricing to job performance, right? Let's do that historically with various administrations and then judge which party is better for markets. I wonder how that will turn out.

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#41 Jan 08 2013 at 9:34 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Given the economic situation and the control the Dems have, the GOP literally got the best outcome they could possibly have hoped for. The Dems got about the worst outcome they could have hoped for. Both sides can point to some aspects of this as a "win", but the reality is that the Dems have lost any ability to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the spending they've already committed to, let alone what they'd like to do going forward. That significantly weakens their position in the next rounds. Since "raising taxes" is now off the table, balancing the budget (or even making some strides in that direction) will require spending cuts. We've already taken the other side of the equation off the table.

I suppose this is what conservatives tell themselves so they can still choke down their oatmeal in the morning.

The GOP suffered a great loss by allowing the tax rates to be unhooked from spending. There was no deal that we'd raise taxes now if we cut spending later or anything. We just legislated in some higher tax rates for the wealthiest folks. The GOP got essentially nothing out of it aside from looking stupid.

The Democrats will go into the next round of talks saying "We need to raise revenue. (via closing loopholes, capital gains taxes, corporate taxes... anything but standard income taxes)" The GOP will say "Nuh uh, cuts only!". The Democrats will say "Well, some revenue and some cuts" and the GOP will stonewall and say no new taxes ever and we'll come to the brink of a government shutdown and the public will see the Democrats asking for a compromise and the GOP saying "Our way or it all burns!". Perception will be 60%+ saying if the government shuts down, the GOP is primarily to blame.

My cite: the last umpteen rounds of budget/debt talks.
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#42 Jan 08 2013 at 10:14 AM Rating: Good
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Given the economic situation and the control the Dems have, the GOP literally got the best outcome they could possibly have hoped for. The Dems got about the worst outcome they could have hoped for. Both sides can point to some aspects of this as a "win", but the reality is that the Dems have lost any ability to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the spending they've already committed to, let alone what they'd like to do going forward. That significantly weakens their position in the next rounds.

Nope. In the same way me paying under invoice for a car doesn't "strengthen" the dealer's position when I buy the next car. If anything, it weakens it. If you think the GOP is going to win significant spending cuts a the next debt ceiling vote, you're wrong. Also, using terms like "pay for" just makes people laugh out loud. It's an artifice created specifically to deceive idiots. There is no "pay for" in government spending, dramatically less so than ever in a rescission.
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#43 Jan 08 2013 at 1:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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#44gbaji, Posted: Jan 08 2013 at 4:45 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) You're kidding, right? So Romney supporters were so upset about Obama winning that they decided to decrease the value of their investments by a few percentage points? That makes a ton of sense. Oh wait! No, it doesn't at all.
#45 Jan 08 2013 at 4:53 PM Rating: Default
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rdmcandie wrote:
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The Dems want (need really) to raise sufficient tax revenue to pay for the social spending they believe is needed by the people.


Hate to be that guy but spending has been less under Dem control of the Senate and White House.


Is this like anti-reality day or something? Spending since Obama took office has increased by $620B/year. Revenue has decreased by $220B/year. You're correct that during the time period that the Dems only controlled the Senate and the White House the rate of spending increase has slowed (it's only gone up about $60B/year during that two year time period), but that's because the GOP has controlled the House and has prevented additional spending.

Way to make it abundantly obvious who's been doing the spending though.

And if we go back to when Dems took control of the Senate and House in 2006, spending has increased by about $950B/year. Again, most of that increase occurred between 2006 and 2010. It's hard to not see a direct correlation between the degree the Dems control the government (especially congress) and the degree to which spending increases.
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#46 Jan 08 2013 at 5:10 PM Rating: Default
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I suppose this is what conservatives tell themselves so they can still choke down their oatmeal in the morning.

The GOP suffered a great loss by allowing the tax rates to be unhooked from spending.


And I'm sure that's what liberals tell themselves so they can choke down their oatmeal in the morning. If tax rates had been tied to spending (deficit reduction as a whole), it would have been much much harder to keep the increases to such a minimal amount. By disconnecting tax rates from the deficit calculation, the GOP was able to get through this round with a minimal amount of loss from their initial position.

Now, when deficit reduction comes to the table, the only thing left to balance deficit against is spending.

Quote:
There was no deal that we'd raise taxes now if we cut spending later or anything. We just legislated in some higher tax rates for the wealthiest folks. The GOP got essentially nothing out of it aside from looking stupid.


They got the tax rates "done" though, and with only about $60B/year in increases. I don't think you grasp what this means. Now instead of a trillion dollar deficit being balanced against potential tax increases and spending cuts. The deficit will be balanced solely against spending cuts. So instead of saying "we'll reduce the deficit by $500B/year by raising $250B/year in taxes and cut spending by $250B/year", it'll be "any dollar of deficit reduction comes as a result of a dollar of spending cuts".

That's a massive win for the GOP. If the Democrats attempt to put tax increases back on the table right after we just agreed to make a set of rates permanent (and the general perception that they won on that issue), they'll make themselves look ridiculous. They just sold this deal as them standing firm on not raising taxes on X% of the population. Their own rhetoric traps them in this regard.

Quote:
The Democrats will go into the next round of talks saying "We need to raise revenue. (via closing loopholes, capital gains taxes, corporate taxes... anything but standard income taxes)" The GOP will say "Nuh uh, cuts only!". The Democrats will say "Well, some revenue and some cuts" and the GOP will stonewall and say no new taxes ever and we'll come to the brink of a government shutdown and the public will see the Democrats asking for a compromise and the GOP saying "Our way or it all burns!". Perception will be 60%+ saying if the government shuts down, the GOP is primarily to blame.


Again, if they try that, they'll be the ones who look like they're going back on their word. Now I'm sure they'll get lots of help in the media with this if they try it, but I suspect the public is getting tired of the Dems saying "we don't want to raise taxes", and then turning around and trying to raise taxes. The GOP will just say that a tax rate agreement was already reached. Given the massive public attention the Dems put on the agreement and the back slapping they're giving themselves in the media over the result, it's somewhat of a hard sell to then say "Oh wait! We didn't really get what we needed" and try to get the public on board with yet another round of tax increases.

The Dems own claims of victory over such a tiny amount of tax increase is going to be their own obstacle in this. But by all means, continue to shout from the rooftops how much of a victory this was for the Dems, and how they got what they wanted, and the GOP lost out big time. Public perception is a bitch, isn't it?

Quote:
My cite: the last umpteen rounds of budget/debt talks.


Sure. Like I said, I don't doubt they'll try this. Given some of the ridiculous negotiating claims they've made in the past, it wouldn't surprise me in the least. But each time they do this sort of thing, they lose a bit more support from people who actually believed their claims of taking a balanced approach and all that. Folks like you don't care, but you're in the far left "tax and spend as much as possible" camp. The tipping point of support that the Dems require to do those things comes from people who don't view it that way. If it wasn't, then the Dems wouldn't bother to pretend that they're willing to make 10 dollars of cuts for every dollar of tax increase for example. That subterfuge is necessary for the Dems to retain sufficient support. They have to be very careful not to lose it by being too blatant with their agenda.
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#47 Jan 08 2013 at 5:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
But each time they do this sort of thing, they lose a bit more support from people who actually believed their claims of taking a balanced approach and all that.

This explains why the GOP keeps caving time after time Smiley: laugh
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#48 Jan 08 2013 at 5:13 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
But each time they do this sort of thing, they lose a bit more support from people who actually believed their claims of taking a balanced approach and all that.

This explains why the GOP keeps caving time after time Smiley: laugh


They aren't caving, they are winning. Smiley: schooled

Edit:
You didn't see that

Edited, Jan 8th 2013 6:19pm by TirithRR
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#49 Jan 08 2013 at 5:39 PM Rating: Good
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TirithRR wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
But each time they do this sort of thing, they lose a bit more support from people who actually believed their claims of taking a balanced approach and all that.

This explains why the GOP keeps caving time after time Smiley: laugh


They aren't caving, they are winning. Smiley: schooled

Edit:
You didn't see that

Edited, Jan 8th 2013 6:19pm by TirithRR

Surely he understood that!
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#50 Jan 08 2013 at 6:01 PM Rating: Good
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I don't think you grasp what this means. Now instead of a trillion dollar deficit being balanced against potential tax increases and spending cuts. The deficit will be balanced solely against spending cuts.

I don't think you grasp that there's no "balancing" yet to occur. All done, now. The GOP will stare down the barrel of the Debt Ceiling gun and either shut the government down and lose the House in '14 or cave like pussies. I wonder which it will be. Do you think Cantor want's a shot at Minority Leader? If he does, he'll try to rally his whackos towards pushing for default. I highly doubt that will happen, he's actually extremely bright and a savvy politician, but you never know.
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#51 Jan 08 2013 at 9:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
I don't think you grasp what this means. Now instead of a trillion dollar deficit being balanced against potential tax increases and spending cuts. The deficit will be balanced solely against spending cuts.

I don't think you grasp that there's no "balancing" yet to occur. All done, now. The GOP will stare down the barrel of the Debt Ceiling gun and either shut the government down and lose the House in '14 or cave like pussies. I wonder which it will be.


Of course. They'll raise the debt ceiling. Why on earth would you think otherwise? There's no way to *not* raise the debt ceiling. This is all theater at this point and you darn well know it. The GOP will call for cuts in spending in return for raising the debt ceiling. The Democrats will refuse. GOP will make a big show of saying that if we don't do something about spending, our deficit will keep growing and the problem will get worse. Insert rhetoric about kicking the can down the road again. Dems will dismiss GOP demands as hostage holding over the debt ceiling and suggest that we should talk about deficit reduction as a separate issue. GOP then takes the high road, says they will "reluctantly" pass a debt ceiling increase, but promise to hold the Dems to deficit talks in coming months.

Sound about right? It's all about public perception Smash. The whole plan from the GOP side is to present their side as loudly and strongly as possible, then appear to give in (compromise if you will) but in as minimal a way as possible (it's not like the GOP actually loses anything by increasing the debt ceiling, they just gain the opportunity to repeat the need for spending cuts). And over time, the Dems will look more and more irrational and unreasonable when we get to the deficit reduction part of this and they continue to refuse to cut anything meaningful. You get that the debt ceiling is not the end of this, right? We still have the pushed back sequestration and whatnot coming down the pipeline.

And when that time comes, the GOP will be able to point to how they compromised on taxes, and they compromised on the debt ceiling, and then ask when the Dems are going to compromise on spending. They'll point to the still looming deficit. They'll make the argument that the GOP is willing to give ground for the good of the people, but not the Dems. Oh, I'm sure the left will do as much as they can in the media to blunt this message, but again, at some point that stops working. You can only claim you're doing something without actually doing it for so long before people stop believing you.

Quote:
Do you think Cantor want's a shot at Minority Leader? If he does, he'll try to rally his whackos towards pushing for default. I highly doubt that will happen, he's actually extremely bright and a savvy politician, but you never know.


There will be theater Smash. The sole purpose of which is to make the public aware of how "important" these things are, and then when the GOP allows the debt ceiling to increase, how much of a sacrifice it was (even though it's not really), and then tie that to calls for the Dems to do their part with regard to spending cuts. It's almost like you don't understand how minority party politics works.
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