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Gbaji Was Wrong..Follow

#1 Nov 14 2012 at 6:34 AM Rating: Good
Gbaji wrote:
IMO, it's either going to be really close or it will be a blowout for Romney.


It wasn't as close as Dubya's re-election, so he's wrong.

Gbaji wrote:

Hell, if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states, and pick up several that are currently considered safe for Obama.


The weighting undersampled Democrats, no oversampled them. He was wrong about that, & very, very, wrong about Romney sweeping Battleground states.

Gbaji, on 47%ers wrote:
What this video shows is the sharp contrast between Obama and Romney on the issue of taxes and entitlements. Believe it or not, this plays better for Romney than Obama in the election. Hell. I wouldn't be surprised if the Romney camp arranged for this video to get "leaked".


More people in Fox's exit polls supported Obama's stance on taxation & entitlements.

Gbaji wrote:
The GOP has a pretty significant enthusiasm advantage this time around


That didn't surpass the lazy 47%'s, woman, minorities, & more than 2/3rd's of the entire under 30 generation. Wrong again.

Anyhoo, he was wrong on just about all of his predictions regarding the 2012 election. But why was he wrong? I expect him to answer himself in this thread, but I think it'll be more fun if we "guess" beforehand why he thinks he was wrong.

Why was Gbaji Wrong about the 2012 Election?
Liberal Media!:4 (10.0%)
The Conservative newsertainment media lied to him!:1 (2.5%)
The Conservative newsertainment media lied to him but he didn't get his news from them!:3 (7.5%)
Voter fraud!:1 (2.5%)
A wall of text that touches upon all of these subjects but doesn't actually admit that he was wrong about anything.:31 (77.5%)
Total:40
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#2 Nov 14 2012 at 7:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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You're addicted to his contortions aren't you and you desperately want to see how he tries to get out of this?

You're a sick individual.
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#3 Nov 14 2012 at 7:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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#4 Nov 14 2012 at 7:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Magical Underpants.
Depends
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#5 Nov 14 2012 at 7:38 AM Rating: Excellent
Quote:
You're addicted to his contortions aren't you and you desperately want to see how he tries to get out of this?

You're a sick individual.


Pretty much. The mental gymnastics one must do to deny reality, or rationalize that denial, never ceases to amaze me.
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#6 Nov 14 2012 at 7:42 AM Rating: Good
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Actually these are all carefully worded so as to be unfalsifiable. Poor choice of quotes.
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#7 Nov 14 2012 at 7:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Gbaji was wrong because he decided to listen to a narrative that was soothing rather than one that was fact based. It's no surprise: present Gbaji with any study, poll or data that goes against his stance and he'll find a dozen reasons why it doesn't count. This wasn't really (in his case) the fault of Fox News or Unskewed Polls or Rush Limbaugh; it was just Gbaji being Gbaji. This time he just had more places to pat his head and tell him he was right.

**** Morris admitted yesterday that he was bullshitting when he was predicting the Romney blow-out because he wanted to keep conservative spirits up.
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#8 Nov 14 2012 at 7:53 AM Rating: Excellent
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Dick Morris admitted yesterday that he was **** when he was predicting the Romney blow-out because he wanted to keep conservative spirits up.

The sad part is that he wasn't, and is saving face by claiming to have been. The good news is that party of faith doesn't care about evidence of failure. Scott Rasmussen will be spewing out polls for the next 20 years that are reported at face value by media outlets. Because, you know, HORSERACE!
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#9 Nov 14 2012 at 7:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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The sad part is that he wasn't, and is saving face by claiming to have been.

You could very well be right. I remember him also predicting a Clinton comeback pretty much up until a week after the 2008 Democratic convention and McCain was going to win the race any minute now.

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Scott Rasmussen will be spewing out polls for the next 20 years that are reported at face value by media outlets. Because, you know, HORSERACE!

Amen. Clinton is going to come back, it's going to be a brokered Democratic convention, McCain is surging in Pennsylvania, Santorum is going to come back, it's going to be a brokered Republican convention, Romney is surging in Pennsylvania...
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#10 Nov 14 2012 at 8:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Gbaji was wrong because he decided to listen to a narrative that was soothing rather than one that was fact based.
Meh, not even that. He was just being on the opposite side of the argument because it makes him feel essential and needed and such.
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#11 Nov 14 2012 at 9:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Gbaji was wrong because he decided to listen to a narrative that was soothing rather than one that was fact based.
Meh, not even that. He was just being on the opposite side of the argument because it makes him feel essential and needed and such.
He is essential. Do you think Var-socks intermittent ramblings produce enough conflict-energy to sustain this place?
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#12 Nov 14 2012 at 10:36 AM Rating: Good
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Considering none of them produce any conflict energy? All they do is nay-say. It doesn't produce conflict or discussion. At best mild amusement.
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#13 Nov 14 2012 at 10:38 AM Rating: Excellent
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They jiggle when you poke them with a pointy stick; that's a plus.
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#14 Nov 14 2012 at 11:20 AM Rating: Good
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I wonder when we will have a Gbaji is right thread. He seems to get it wrong an awful lot.
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#15 Nov 14 2012 at 11:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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He was right about Romney being the eventual GOP nominee. Not that you needed to be Nostradamus to call that one.
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#16 Nov 14 2012 at 11:39 AM Rating: Excellent
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He was right about Romney being the eventual GOP nominee. Not that you needed to be Nostradamus to call that one.

Who's turn is it now, though? Jeb, I'd assume if he wants it, but why give up being King of Florida for a real job.
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#17 Nov 14 2012 at 11:44 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
He was right about Romney being the eventual GOP nominee. Not that you needed to be Nostradamus to call that one.


Didn't he change his tune 2-3 times during that though?
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#18 Nov 14 2012 at 11:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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About Romney winning the nomination? No, he was solid on that one. Even through the media circus of "Gingrich is in the lead! Now Cain! Now Perry! Santorum! Bachm--- haha, just kidding..."
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#19 Nov 14 2012 at 11:48 AM Rating: Decent
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I am actually surprised he didn't spin with the media...he is usually pretty consistent in parroting right wing crazy...even though he doesn't get his news from anywhere.
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#20 Nov 14 2012 at 12:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Who's turn is it now, though? Jeb, I'd assume if he wants it, but why give up being King of Florida for a real job.


If not him I'm going for one of the new group from these past elections to distinguish themselves. Guessing Christie and Jindal have burned too many bridges with the right wingers for the near future at least.
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#21 Nov 14 2012 at 12:11 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Not that you needed to be Nostradamus to call that one.
He was right about what everyone except the media outlets trying to get ratings was saying two years ago. Color me shocked.
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#22 Nov 15 2012 at 9:43 PM Rating: Default
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I honestly have been ridiculously busy over the last week, but since I don't want to disappoint you:

Omegavegeta wrote:
Gbaji wrote:
IMO, it's either going to be really close or it will be a blowout for Romney.


It wasn't as close as Dubya's re-election, so he's wrong.


It was still "close" in practical terms. You have to remember that because of the electoral college system, a relatively tiny shift in 8 or 10 states equals 100 or so electoral college votes. You literally take a couple percentage points from Obama and shift them to Romney in those states and it goes the other way. Was it close in terms of EC votes? No. And to be fair, I did think that Romney would pick up more of the battleground states than he did. But it was a **** of a lot closer than you'd have thought looking at the polling (which was the point I was making at the time).

Quote:
Gbaji wrote:

Hell, if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states, and pick up several that are currently considered safe for Obama.


The weighting undersampled Democrats, no oversampled them. He was wrong about that, & very, very, wrong about Romney sweeping Battleground states.


Um.. No. It didn't. Remember the list of local Ohio polls Joph posted just a day or so before the election? Remember how like 4 out of 5 of them had Obama up by 4-6 points? Obama won Ohio 50/48. So the polls were skewed in the Dems favor by only a 2-3 points instead of 4 or 5 points as I suspected.

Pay attention to what I wrote. You even quoted it. I said "if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states...". If the weighting issue had been 4-6 points then he would have won pretty much all the battleground states. He certainly would have won Ohio, Florida, Virginia, with others being very close.

The point is there was a weighting skew in the polls. It just wasn't as large as some thought.

Quote:
Gbaji, on 47%ers wrote:
What this video shows is the sharp contrast between Obama and Romney on the issue of taxes and entitlements. Believe it or not, this plays better for Romney than Obama in the election. Hell. I wouldn't be surprised if the Romney camp arranged for this video to get "leaked".


More people in Fox's exit polls supported Obama's stance on taxation & entitlements.


Er? I'm not sure how the two are related. First: Exit polls. Second: That doesn't mean that it hurt him rather than helping him. You can't know what said exit poll results would have been if said video had not been leaked. Yes, I know that's doesn't prove anything. But that's the point, there's no proof either way. You're really grasping for something to "prove" I'm wrong about with this one. It's an opinion. We can't actually know the truth without a time machine to see what would have happened if things had gone differently.

Quote:
Gbaji wrote:
The GOP has a pretty significant enthusiasm advantage this time around


That didn't surpass the lazy 47%'s, woman, minorities, & more than 2/3rd's of the entire under 30 generation. Wrong again.


And? Doesn't disprove my point at all. Obama won this election 332 to 206. He beat McCain 365 to 173. Interestingly, looking at poplar vote, Romney got about the same number as McCain (59,134,475 versus 59,934,814), while Obama got far fewer this time around ( 62,611,250 versus 69,456,897). If we can correlate total number of voters to enthusiasm, you can absolutely say that Romney had an advantage this time compared to last.

It wasn't quite enough to win, but I think the fact that Obama got nearly 7 million fewer votes this time around represents a significant drop in enthusiasm for his re-election). The problem for Republicans was that they were hoping this would translate into people switching to voting Republican, while it appears that most of the folks who lost enthusiasm for Obama just stayed home instead.

Quote:
Anyhoo, he was wrong on just about all of his predictions regarding the 2012 election.


Only if one grossly misrepresents what I actually said. I never once predicted who would win btw. I was cautiously optimistic for Romney, but was very careful this time to couch my words in the form of merely examining possibilities. If the skew in the polls had been as large as some conservatives were suggesting, it would have been a big win for Romney. I didn't say that the polls were that skewed.

You'll note that I also didn't place any bets this time around. Not falling for that one again. Smiley: bah
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#23 Nov 15 2012 at 9:44 PM Rating: Decent
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Hah. I see you guys know me well. Smiley: grin
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#24 Nov 15 2012 at 10:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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it was a **** of a lot closer than you'd have thought looking at the polling (which was the point I was making at the time).

Nope. It was pretty much exactly in line with the polling. If anything, the polls underrepresented the Obama vote.
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a whore. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#25 Nov 15 2012 at 10:39 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Um.. No. It didn't. Remember the list of local Ohio polls Joph posted just a day or so before the election? Remember how like 4 out of 5 of them had Obama up by 4-6 points? Obama won Ohio 50/48. So the polls were skewed in the Dems favor by only a 2-3 points instead of 4 or 5 points as I suspected.

That'd be a real trick of me since the RCP Ohio average before the election was +2.9

There were a couple +5 polls in there but nothing like "4 out of 5" and they were mitigated by others showing much slimmer leads.

Edit: I assume you meant this post. Besides the fact that it's not five polls, most of those weren't included in the RCP average for various reasons (mainly online polling and Zogby sucking in general).

Quote:
You literally take a couple percentage points from Obama and shift them to Romney in those states and it goes the other way.

This is wrong. The "tipping point" state for Obama's victory was Colorado which he won by 4.7 points. Ohio, Virginia and Florida were nice for running up the totals but they could have been lost and it wouldn't have changed the outcome as Colorado and the states won by bigger margins gave Obama 272 EVs.

So what you meant was "If you just changed states by giving Romney another four percent, Romney totally would have won. It's like literally practically a tie!"

Edited, Nov 16th 2012 12:30am by Jophiel
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#26 Nov 16 2012 at 6:19 AM Rating: Excellent
Gbaji wrote:
Hah. I see you guys know me well.


If anything, you're predictable.
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#27 Nov 16 2012 at 8:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
If the skew in the polls had been as large as some conservatives were suggesting, it would have been a big win for Romney. I didn't say that the polls were that skewed.
So your account got hacked when you went on tangents about how they were all oversampling Democrats and how the candidates were a lot closer than we all thought?
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#28 Nov 17 2012 at 3:39 PM Rating: Good
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Lol!

Gbaji: Polls don't mean anything!, Over sampled!!!
Gbaji: Ill say Romney wins in a blowout or its very close.
Gbaji: Obama won? Ya i was just being cautiously optimistic
Gbaji: and based my opinion on the polls...

Reality: Polls were actually under the eventual dem turnouts
Reality: Wasn't close at all
Reality: Cautiously optimistic is not calling a blow out
Reality: wtf?

(there has to be a meme in there someplace.)
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#29 Nov 17 2012 at 5:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:
Lol!

Gbaji: Polls don't mean anything!, Over sampled!!!
Gbaji: Ill say Romney wins in a blowout or its very close.
Gbaji: Obama won? Ya i was just being cautiously optimistic
Gbaji: and based my opinion on the polls...

Reality: Polls were actually under the eventual dem turnouts
Reality: Wasn't close at all
Reality: Cautiously optimistic is not calling a blow out
Reality: wtf?

(there has to be a meme in there someplace.)

Not really a meme but this seems to apply.
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#30 Nov 20 2012 at 4:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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IF the USA didn't use an electoral college in its constitution, and used a proportional ballot counting system, this year's election would have been close.

But you do have an electoral college, and under your own first-past-the-post system, it wasn't close at all. Because your constitution is designed that way.
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#31 Nov 20 2012 at 9:13 AM Rating: Excellent
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#32 Nov 20 2012 at 2:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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Most recent tally has Obama ahead 3.1% in the popular vote (some 4 million people). Wider than Bush's win against Kerry. Still some votes to be counted in heavily Democratic states like NY & CA.

Political guru Larry Sabato says that we probably lost at least a million votes (not lost actual cast votes, but people didn't vote) as a result of Sandy. Most of which would have been in heavily Democratic areas as well (New York, Pennsylvania, parts of the New England area).

This was not a "close" election, no matter how you spin it.

Edited, Nov 20th 2012 2:03pm by Jophiel
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#33 Nov 20 2012 at 2:46 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Most recent tally has Obama ahead 3.1% in the popular vote (some 4 million people). Wider than Bush's win against Kerry. Still some votes to be counted in heavily Democratic states like NY & CA.

Political guru Larry Sabato says that we probably lost at least a million votes (not lost actual cast votes, but people didn't vote) as a result of Sandy. Most of which would have been in heavily Democratic areas as well (New York, Pennsylvania, parts of the New England area).

This was not a "close" election, no matter how you spin it.


Saw your boy Frum on Maher's show the other night. Thought he comported himself very well, in spite of Ana Navarro's conservative talking point regurgitation nonsense on his left and the squealing, belching noises coming from Michael Moore just to his right.
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#34 Nov 20 2012 at 2:58 PM Rating: Excellent
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Ana Navarro's conservative talking point regurgitation nonsense on his left and the squealing, belching noises coming from Michael Moore just to his right.

Obviously they were in the wrong seats.
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#35 Nov 20 2012 at 3:53 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Most recent tally has Obama ahead 3.1% in the popular vote (some 4 million people). Wider than Bush's win against Kerry. Still some votes to be counted in heavily Democratic states like NY & CA.

Political guru Larry Sabato says that we probably lost at least a million votes (not lost actual cast votes, but people didn't vote) as a result of Sandy. Most of which would have been in heavily Democratic areas as well (New York, Pennsylvania, parts of the New England area).

This was not a "close" election, no matter how you spin it.

Edited, Nov 20th 2012 2:03pm by Jophiel


It depends on the previous elections. It could only be close if the difference were much smaller in comparison to others.
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#36 Nov 20 2012 at 5:11 PM Rating: Excellent
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It was wider than Bush/Gore or Bush/Kerry.
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#37 Nov 21 2012 at 12:34 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
It was wider than Bush/Gore or Bush/Kerry.
So Obama won by a hair's width this time around. Bush won with a landslide twice though, even you should be able to see that through your liberal media rose tinted glasses.
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#38 Nov 21 2012 at 8:10 AM Rating: Good
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I'm actually enjoying all the back peddling.
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#39 Nov 21 2012 at 5:45 PM Rating: Good
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I'm actually enjoying all the back peddling.


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#40 Nov 22 2012 at 7:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
I'm actually enjoying all the back peddling.


If someone is selling backs I need to get one. Mine is killing me.


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