I honestly have been ridiculously busy over the last week, but since I don't want to disappoint you:
IMO, it's either going to be really close or it will be a blowout for Romney.
It wasn't as close as Dubya's re-election, so he's wrong.
It was still "close" in practical terms. You have to remember that because of the electoral college system, a relatively tiny shift in 8 or 10 states equals 100 or so electoral college votes. You literally take a couple percentage points from Obama and shift them to Romney in those states and it goes the other way. Was it close in terms of EC votes? No. And to be fair, I did think that Romney would pick up more of the battleground states than he did. But it was a hell of a lot closer than you'd have thought looking at the polling (which was the point I was making at the time).
Hell, if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states, and pick up several that are currently considered safe for Obama.
The weighting undersampled
Democrats, no oversampled them. He was wrong about that, & very, very, wrong about Romney sweeping Battleground states.
Um.. No. It didn't. Remember the list of local Ohio polls Joph posted just a day or so before the election? Remember how like 4 out of 5 of them had Obama up by 4-6 points? Obama won Ohio 50/48. So the polls were skewed in the Dems favor by only a 2-3 points instead of 4 or 5 points as I suspected.
Pay attention to what I wrote. You even quoted it. I said "if the weighting issue is as significant as some conservatives are suggesting, Romney will easily win all the battleground states..."
. If the weighting issue had been 4-6 points then he would have won pretty much all the battleground states. He certainly would have won Ohio, Florida, Virginia, with others being very close.
The point is there was a weighting skew in the polls. It just wasn't as large as some thought.
Gbaji, on 47%ers wrote:
What this video shows is the sharp contrast between Obama and Romney on the issue of taxes and entitlements. Believe it or not, this plays better for Romney than Obama in the election. Hell. I wouldn't be surprised if the Romney camp arranged for this video to get "leaked".
More people in Fox's exit polls supported Obama's stance on taxation & entitlements.
Er? I'm not sure how the two are related. First: Exit polls. Second: That doesn't mean that it hurt him rather than helping him. You can't know what said exit poll results would have been if said video had not been leaked. Yes, I know that's doesn't prove anything. But that's the point, there's no proof either way. You're really grasping for something to "prove" I'm wrong about with this one. It's an opinion. We can't actually know the truth without a time machine to see what would have happened if things had gone differently.
The GOP has a pretty significant enthusiasm advantage this time around
That didn't surpass the lazy 47%'s, woman, minorities, & more than 2/3rd's of the entire under 30 generation. Wrong again.
And? Doesn't disprove my point at all. Obama won this election 332 to 206. He beat McCain 365 to 173. Interestingly, looking at poplar vote, Romney got about the same number as McCain (59,134,475 versus 59,934,814), while Obama got far fewer this time around ( 62,611,250 versus 69,456,897). If we can correlate total number of voters to enthusiasm, you can absolutely say that Romney had an advantage this time compared to last.
It wasn't quite enough to win, but I think the fact that Obama got nearly 7 million fewer votes this time around represents a significant drop in enthusiasm for his re-election). The problem for Republicans was that they were hoping this would translate into people switching to voting Republican, while it appears that most of the folks who lost enthusiasm for Obama just stayed home instead.
Anyhoo, he was wrong on just about all of his predictions regarding the 2012 election.
Only if one grossly misrepresents what I actually said. I never once predicted who would win btw. I was cautiously optimistic for Romney, but was very careful this time to couch my words in the form of merely examining possibilities. If the skew in the polls had been as large as some conservatives were suggesting, it would have been a big win for Romney. I didn't say that the polls were that skewed.
You'll note that I also didn't place any bets this time around. Not falling for that one again.