It'll be close, but Romney has the momentum
Nope. There's no possible reading of polling data that indicates this. Romney may win, but any "momentum" he had was stalled around the time of the final debate. Likely not because of it, but that was pretty much the end of his gains.
We wont know that for certain for a few days in the major polls, but my understanding is that the polling has continued to shift Romney's direction through this week. It's slowed a bit, but slowing from eating 4-6 points of Obama lead a week to 1-2 points a week is still momentum. IMO, the question at this point is whether that shift goes far enough by election day. Firming up always happens in the last month of an election, but Romney's gains have been more than just firming.
The GOP should be very concerned about Virginia. Obama winning Florida is a stretch at the moment, but Virginia is shaping up to be pretty interesting. Should be a fun night, generally. Politics aside, from a pure analytical standpoint, with polling this close the GOTV operations are likely what wins or loses. The Obama team was good at it in '08, but how hard is it really to get very motivated voters to the polls? It's difficult to plausibly argue that Romney, via the RNC, has a more effective operation, but I guess it's possible Evangelicals will turn out like they did for Bush and the church based networks drooling simpleton racists will go vote.
The GOP has a pretty significant enthusiasm advantage this time around. It's just hard to get really motivated about a candidate whose record really is just as stunningly bad as Obama's.