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#1 Oct 26 2012 at 2:20 PM Rating: Good
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Because I needed a place to put this Smiley: laugh
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#2 Oct 26 2012 at 2:30 PM Rating: Good
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That's too obvious to be deliberate. I'm guessing it's the work of a shitty panorama software stitch.


So....what's the latest polling showing? I'm seeing a lot of conservatives crowing online about leads.

Edited, Oct 26th 2012 4:30pm by Eske
#3 Oct 26 2012 at 2:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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I laughed, but it just looks like a botched panoramic shot to me?
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#4 Oct 26 2012 at 2:37 PM Rating: Good
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Maybe they used iPhone's map app?
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#5 Oct 26 2012 at 3:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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Part of me wants to agree with Eske. I can't believe a multi-million dollar campaign would do such an obviously terrible job. Or is this what happens when you outsource stuff overseas instead of simply exploiting out-of-work college grads?
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#6 Oct 26 2012 at 4:08 PM Rating: Good
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LockeColeMA wrote:
I laughed, but it just looks like a botched panoramic shot to me?

The copy with all the pink arrows shows evidence for it not being an innocent panoramic shot (intentional manipulation within the copied areas) but I'll let folks decide that for themselves.
Eske Esquire wrote:
So....what's the latest polling showing? I'm seeing a lot of conservatives crowing online about leads.

Slight Romney lead in the national aggregates (well, 538 says O +0.2% today) but Obama leading in enough states to easily claim 270+. Most importantly, Obama leads in Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin. Ohio and Nevada have shown to be very resilient to shifting away from the president and early voting in both states has a big lead for him (around 60-40 in each state). Not that he'll win either state by 20 of course but banking a bunch of votes now lets the campaign concentrate on a more focused GOTV effort on election day and Obama has a strong campaign machine in both states (technically, Reid has a strong machine in NV; it's the one that helped to give him a surprisingly comfortable victory in 2010).


Edited, Oct 26th 2012 5:18pm by Jophiel
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#8 Oct 26 2012 at 4:39 PM Rating: Good
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Smiley: laugh
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#9 Oct 26 2012 at 4:50 PM Rating: Good
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God Joph, you're so dense. The only votes that matter are Republican votes, and with those voters Romney is deadlocked with Obama.
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#10 Oct 26 2012 at 4:59 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Eske Esquire wrote:
So....what's the latest polling showing? I'm seeing a lot of conservatives crowing online about leads.

Slight Romney lead in the national aggregates (well, 538 says O +0.2% today) but Obama leading in enough states to easily claim 270+. Most importantly, Obama leads in Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin. Ohio and Nevada have shown to be very resilient to shifting away from the president and early voting in both states has a big lead for him (around 60-40 in each state). Not that he'll win either state by 20 of course but banking a bunch of votes now lets the campaign concentrate on a more focused GOTV effort on election day and Obama has a strong campaign machine in both states (technically, Reid has a strong machine in NV; it's the one that helped to give him a surprisingly comfortable victory in 2010).


Thanks for the summary. I don't have a mind for this polling stuff.
#11 Oct 26 2012 at 5:03 PM Rating: Default
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It'll be close, but Romney has the momentum. It's interesting that folks keep talking about how Obama has a "slight lead" in the battleground states, but fail to mention that what is considered a battleground state today was considered safely Obama just a few weeks ago. The battleground states of the past are now leaning Romney. Ohio is still being stubborn, but Romney has closed a massive gap in that state. A couple weeks ago some analysts were speculating that Romney might have to abandon the state, but today it's a toss up. Also, I wouldn't crow too much about early voting in that state. Last time around, Obama had a massive lead in early voting. It's what helped him win the state. This time around, it's not nearly so much of a lead and it's among people who were likely to vote anyway, so you're basically stealing from election day to give the perception of a lead in early voting. I'd be nervous about Ohio if I were a Democrat.


In the past couple months, Romney has gone from having to run the table on battle ground states and pick up some leaning Obama to win, to having several combinations of up for grabs states that can net him the win. Ohio is still the 800lb gorilla, of course, but there have been some surprising swings of States Romney's way that most people weren't even expecting. ****. Florida has gone from a good "leans Obama" to "Obama abandoning the state" in just a couple weeks. There's no way to know if what we're seeing is the Obama campaign just disintegrating entirely, or if it's just low hanging fruit that they shouldn't have counted on in the first place and we'll hit a firm wall at some point. In either case though, it looks like a strong wave of Romney support flowing across the country.


The question is whether it'll be enough to tip the balance by election day.
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#12 Oct 26 2012 at 5:09 PM Rating: Good
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I think we can be fairly certain that we aren't seeing the Obama administration disintegrating.
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#13 Oct 26 2012 at 5:18 PM Rating: Decent
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Read the trend lines:
Ohio hasn't moved since after the first debate. Romney narrowed the gap then but it hasn't moved since.
Iowa hasn't moved for Romney in over a month.
Nevada hasn't moved for Romney since after the first debate.
Wisconsin hasn't narrowed since after the first debate.

OH+WI+(NV-or-IA) = Obama win. FL/NC/VA/NH/CO be damned. And that's not to write off all those states but Romney showed some initial momentum after Debate #1 which has stalled out in the trifecta of states that matters.
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#14 Oct 26 2012 at 5:38 PM Rating: Decent
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Eske Esquire wrote:
That's too obvious to be deliberate. I'm guessing it's the work of a shitty panorama software stitch.

I think somebody with a slight sense of humot tried to get the letter banners to spell ROMNOMNOMNEY.
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#16 Oct 26 2012 at 6:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Really? Because he was on Leno two nights ago. Doesn't really seem like "hiding" to me. It seemed like being affable and endearing.

Romney has spent every moment of the past month looking stressed out and terrified. One of Obama's best skills is maintain a calm, collected exterior. Sure, he could be a sniveling mass of fear underneath. But that's definitely not what we see.
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#17 Oct 26 2012 at 6:13 PM Rating: Good
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
Really? Because he was on Leno two nights ago.
He was on the Daily Show as well. I know this because McCain was interviewed about how horrible he did like half an hour before the show even aired.
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#18 Oct 26 2012 at 6:17 PM Rating: Good
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lolgaxe wrote:
idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
Really? Because he was on Leno two nights ago.
He was on the Daily Show as well. I know this because McCain was interviewed about how horrible he did like half an hour before the show even aired.


It was not "optimal"!
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#19 Oct 26 2012 at 6:44 PM Rating: Default
I think Obama has this one, not because I like the Democrats(they've had some pretty rubbish leaders too), but because he's a safe choice. The problem for republicans is that they chose a **** poor candidate. Some people don't think that that matters, because they feel one should vote for the party, not the person, but let me ask: how many democrats voted for Reagan because Mondale was a bad choice? or for Nixon twice because both Humphrey and McGovern(holy **** landslide, much?) weren't great? How many republican voters voted for Clinton because Bob Dole was kinda...Bob Dole?

There were other reasons why those elections I mentioned were basically landslide victories, many other reasons, but the person running for the position matters a lot, and the republicans went the wrong direction on this one.
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#20 Oct 26 2012 at 7:10 PM Rating: Good
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It'll be close, but Romney has the momentum


Nope. There's no possible reading of polling data that indicates this. Romney may win, but any "momentum" he had was stalled around the time of the final debate. Likely not because of it, but that was pretty much the end of his gains.

The GOP should be very concerned about Virginia. Obama winning Florida is a stretch at the moment, but Virginia is shaping up to be pretty interesting. Should be a fun night, generally. Politics aside, from a pure analytical standpoint, with polling this close the GOTV operations are likely what wins or loses. The Obama team was good at it in '08, but how hard is it really to get very motivated voters to the polls? It's difficult to plausibly argue that Romney, via the RNC, has a more effective operation, but I guess it's possible Evangelicals will turn out like they did for Bush and the church based networks drooling simpleton racists will go vote.

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#21 Oct 26 2012 at 7:16 PM Rating: Default
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Monsieur Driftwood wrote:
I think Obama has this one, not because I like the Democrats(they've had some pretty rubbish leaders too), but because he's a safe choice. The problem for republicans is that they chose a **** poor candidate. Some people don't think that that matters, because they feel one should vote for the party, not the person, but let me ask: how many democrats voted for Reagan because Mondale was a bad choice? or for Nixon twice because both Humphrey and McGovern(holy @#%^ landslide, much?) weren't great? How many republican voters voted for Clinton because Bob Dole was kinda...Bob Dole?

There were other reasons why those elections I mentioned were basically landslide victories, many other reasons, but the person running for the position matters a lot, and the republicans went the wrong direction on this one.


Except that this election is much more like Reagan vs Carter than Dole vs Clinton.

The parallels to the 1980 election are pretty significant. Several years of sluggish economy. High gas prices. Problems in the Middle East. Incumbent president who was elected more on his being a Washington outsider with new ideas than any direct experience. Moderate Republican Challenger who was a former governor of a liberal state running on a pro-growth economic model. A wave of conservative thought questioning big government and its failures (government is the problem, not the solution). Romney's not Reagan (but then Reagan wasn't Reagan when he was running), and Obama's not Carter, but I think it's a mistake to ignore the massive external factors going on with this election.
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#22 Oct 26 2012 at 7:25 PM Rating: Default
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Smasharoo wrote:

It'll be close, but Romney has the momentum


Nope. There's no possible reading of polling data that indicates this. Romney may win, but any "momentum" he had was stalled around the time of the final debate. Likely not because of it, but that was pretty much the end of his gains.


We wont know that for certain for a few days in the major polls, but my understanding is that the polling has continued to shift Romney's direction through this week. It's slowed a bit, but slowing from eating 4-6 points of Obama lead a week to 1-2 points a week is still momentum. IMO, the question at this point is whether that shift goes far enough by election day. Firming up always happens in the last month of an election, but Romney's gains have been more than just firming.

Quote:
The GOP should be very concerned about Virginia. Obama winning Florida is a stretch at the moment, but Virginia is shaping up to be pretty interesting. Should be a fun night, generally. Politics aside, from a pure analytical standpoint, with polling this close the GOTV operations are likely what wins or loses. The Obama team was good at it in '08, but how hard is it really to get very motivated voters to the polls? It's difficult to plausibly argue that Romney, via the RNC, has a more effective operation, but I guess it's possible Evangelicals will turn out like they did for Bush and the church based networks drooling simpleton racists will go vote.


The GOP has a pretty significant enthusiasm advantage this time around. It's just hard to get really motivated about a candidate whose record really is just as stunningly bad as Obama's.
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#23 Oct 26 2012 at 7:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
It's slowed a bit, but slowing from eating 4-6 points of Obama lead a week to 1-2 points a week is still momentum.

Just how many points ahead did you think Obama was?

More amusingly, prior to the first debate you insisted repeatedly that the polls were all wrong and Obama didn't really have a significant lead at all. Now you're saying Romney was gaining at a rate of 6 points a week? Smiley: laughSmiley: laugh

Anyway, as I pointed out, Romney hasn't had any momentum in the states that will decide the election for the last three weeks.
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#24 Oct 26 2012 at 9:44 PM Rating: Good
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The photoshop looks to obvious to be true. Then again the general body of the GOP likely wouldn't be able to notice id imagine.

As far as the election is concerned. Obama will win Ohio, its almost a certainty, the auto industry is adding jobs a plenty, and is the healthiest its been in a long time. It repaid its debt and is still growing. Heck my plant is adding 230 people over the next month to produce frames for GM. Which means they will be adding jobs, and the dealerships will be adding product, and likely jobs.

Not bad for government investment.

And as they saying goes, As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.
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#25 Oct 26 2012 at 10:09 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm honestly surprised that Michigan isn't a solid win for Obama right now. Romney has done a lot to make himself hated there, particularly in Detroit...
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#26 Oct 26 2012 at 10:11 PM Rating: Good
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
I'm honestly surprised that Michigan isn't a solid win for Obama right now. Romney has done a lot to make himself hated there, particularly in Detroit...

Michigan's been locked up for Obama for a while.

Obama's been playing the Romney "let it go bankrupt" card in Ohio, which has lots of auto workers as well.
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