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It's getting hot in here....so lets...read this article?Follow

#1 Sep 21 2012 at 8:17 AM Rating: Decent
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http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

I read about half of the first page. I don't care about the science in the article particularly, but does the presentation seem like it will be effective?

Alarmist or accurate. I link, you decide, then I argue with you, probably. I might have to feed the baby.

If the pictures of those towering wildfires in Colorado haven't convinced you, or the size of your AC bill this summer, here are some hard numbers about climate change: June broke or tied 3,215 high-temperature records across the United States. That followed the warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.
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#2 Sep 21 2012 at 8:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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Not reading five pages of that. It has been unseasonably warm since last winter, doesn't seem like it's up to civilization ending levels yet.
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#3 Sep 21 2012 at 8:28 AM Rating: Excellent
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There is, for practical purposes, unanimous consent among climate scientists that ACC is real and happening. Litigating whether or not a particular wildfire is directly caused by it is a depressing distraction from what's happening but that's the typical counter-take on the debate.

The article itself looks interesting although I don't have time to read a five page story at the moment.
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#4 Sep 21 2012 at 8:51 AM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.


I hate these **** probability estimates, having run into them frequently in my field as well. They are almost universally misleading; holding things constant that shouldn't be, ignoring or ignorant of systematic errors or longer term trends, etc etc. So poo on that number, I don't believe it for a second. Smiley: tongue

Anyway, now that the mini-rant is over, the article, hmm. It's an alarmist article in it's tone, sure. Still it shouldn't be, it's not anything that hasn't been repeated over the last 20 years or so, just inserting new 'fears' for the old ones.

A couple of things that I'm surprised even have to be said anymore:

1) Man-made global warming is real.

2) No one is going to stop it.

Now if we all can just swallow those 2 pills we can move onto more practical debates; like how high do we build the sea wall. Smiley: rolleyes
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#5 Sep 21 2012 at 8:55 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Not reading five pages of that. It has been unseasonably warm since last winter, doesn't seem like it's up to civilization ending levels yet.

It's all about three numbers:

1. 2° c - This is the drop dead number. We raise global temps by over 2 degrees and we all turn into zombified cockroaches We're at about 0.8 degrees now.

2. 565 Gigatons - This is how much atmospheric stuff we can put into the atmosphere by midcentury without exceeding our 2 degree limit.

3. 2795 Gigatons - This is how much atmospheric stuff we're currently planning on putting into the atmosphere by mid-centure based on current oil/gas/coal reserves.

Doom and Gloom.....

I'm thinking we probably shouldn't have bothered rebuilding New Orleans.
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#6 Sep 21 2012 at 9:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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The Earth will survive, just not as we know it.

If you believe in evolution (which if you don't... I have nothing more to say to you) then you know some hard truths: There are winners and losers. The winner is the species that adapts. The loser is the species that does not. Adaptation means not only on a genetic level, something that can occur rapidly in a few decades or even years for fast breeding insects and mammals, but also migration, as well as generational plasticity (something seen in USians in just the last century as we've had better access to nutrition and have gotten taller and more robust.)

Polar bears will become extinct at this rate. Sucks for them. Many species will move along to axis to the more northerly or southerly regions near the poles. Vast swaths of Canada and Siberia, currently considered uninhabitable, will become prime real estate. They were already tectonically stable (few earthquakes on basalt shield) and they'll be warm now, with a long enough growing season that crops can be done in greenhouses. The tropics will be too dangerous to live in without adequate preparation.
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#7 Sep 21 2012 at 9:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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2deg doesnt magically kill us. Nor does 4. The earth just becomes increasingly less inhabitable.
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#8 Sep 21 2012 at 9:23 AM Rating: Good
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2deg doesnt magically kill us. Nor does 4. The earth just becomes increasingly less inhabitable.

Would it kill all the bees? Because, if so, I see a sweet Romney job creation platform around hand pollinating fruit trees.
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#9 Sep 21 2012 at 9:26 AM Rating: Excellent
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He's got the tan.
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#10 Sep 21 2012 at 9:34 AM Rating: Good
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I thought 2 degrees was supposed to be some sort of threshold after which things cascade out of control, not just a flat increase.

I was watching a TED talk last month about how we're actually on course for 4 to 6°C, along with some positive feedback systems that would spike surface temperatures to levels where the heat will literally kill humans on most of the world's land mass(I think the number tossed around wast 178°F).
I wish I had the link for that, because it was a really good concise explanation of how we are totally screwed.
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#11 Sep 21 2012 at 9:34 AM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
2deg doesnt magically kill us. Nor does 4. The earth just becomes increasingly less inhabitable.
I think it's viewed as more of a tipping point. More than 2 degrees and we lose control of the climate.

Scientific America wrote:
SAN FRANCISCO—A mantra that has driven global negotiations on carbon dioxide emissions for years has been that policy-makers must prevent warming of more than two degrees Celsius to prevent apocalyptic climate outcomes. And, two degrees has been a point of no return, a limit directly or indirectly agreed to by negotiators at international climate talks.


The guy that came up with the number two though says it's really too high.
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#12 Sep 21 2012 at 9:34 AM Rating: Good
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I chuckled at "16 years, around the time today's preschoolers will be graduating from high school." A pretty blatant attempt at trying to infuse the scenario with emotion. It's done again with beer, and I'm sure I missed other examples. Giving the readers three different numbers they're supposed to care about seemed counterproductive to creating a cohesive advertisement. It'd be an improvement if 2 degrees was entirely the focus with only enough numbers thrown in to make it appear as if data existed supporting everything stated by the author.
#13 Sep 21 2012 at 9:56 AM Rating: Decent
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The "2 degrees" scenario is the tipping point at which the Earth rapidly turns itself into Venus. Sucks for all the other species, but I think we'd deserve that fate.

The real question is, do we have time to terraform Mars and start this whole planet-killing process over again?
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#14 Sep 21 2012 at 10:16 AM Rating: Good
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catwho wrote:
Vast swaths of Canada and Siberia, currently considered uninhabitable, will become prime real estate. They were already tectonically stable (few earthquakes on basalt shield) and they'll be warm now, with a long enough growing season that crops can be done in greenhouses. The tropics will be too dangerous to live in without adequate preparation.
There are some who beleive the next mega-continent starts with a fusion of Canada's Arctic and Siberia so I'm not so sure that's as great as you beleive.
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#15 Sep 21 2012 at 10:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
The "2 degrees" scenario is the tipping point at which the Earth rapidly turns itself into Venus.


These people seem to think it would take a rise of over 100 degrees for a few million years, for whatever that's worth. I wanted to read the paper myself, but for some reason a health institute sees no reason to subscribe to a geophysics journal. Smiley: bah
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#16 Sep 21 2012 at 10:21 AM Rating: Good
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I think the first page would have been much more effective if it left out 3 paragraphs of "colour" that interrupted the talk about dangerous numbers. I would have pulled the text from
Quote:
If the movie had ended in Hollywood fashion...
to here
Quote:
...then the German minister of the environment and now the center-right chancellor of the nation.
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#17 Sep 21 2012 at 10:32 AM Rating: Good
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I, for one, like summer weather, so to me global warming is a wonderful thing. Mrs. Totem's younger brother lives in Minnesota and frequently exclaims that his favorite season is winter, to which I say he must have been dropped on his head as a baby.

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#18 Sep 21 2012 at 10:39 AM Rating: Decent
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Totem wrote:
I, for one, like summer weather, so to me global warming is a wonderful thing. Mrs. Totem's younger brother lives in Minnesota and frequently exclaims that his favorite season is winter, to which I say he must have been dropped on his head as a baby.

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#19 Sep 21 2012 at 10:45 AM Rating: Good
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Totem wrote:
Mrs. Totem's younger brother lives in Minnesota and frequently exclaims that his favorite season is winter, to which I say he must have been dropped on his head as a baby.

That happens to a lot of Minnesotans.

Balmy weather aside, I imagine famine, disease etc will rise dramatically in the under-developed equatorial countries. Those without resource will not likely adapt too well.

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#20 Sep 21 2012 at 10:55 AM Rating: Good
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My impression of the 2 degree mark is that it is the point at which we pretty much just can't reverse the effects of global warming. We can still stop it from spiraling out of control, but the other aspects--crazy temperature highs and lows, vastly more powerful storm systems and longer droughts, etc--will be there to stay.

It's not like the Earth will self destruct, but it'll make life much more difficult in the long run. And it almost certainly will rapidly change ecosystems. Destroy them? Who knows, that's incredibly hard to predict. We generally always hear about rising water levels, but that's actually the part most scientists care the least about. Lost land pales in comparison to ecosystems that are forced to rapidly change into forms we can't deal with. A quick for instance, imagine if winters stopped getting cold enough to kill off the worst offenders with regards to crop-killing insects, and the warmer weather increased their proliferation. That would be a massive issue for food production that we really aren't in a good place to solve.

And if you imagine thousands of issues like these, it's not a pretty picture. So it's really better we don't hit that point.
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#21 Sep 21 2012 at 10:56 AM Rating: Good
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cidbahamut wrote:
Totem wrote:
I, for one, like summer weather, so to me global warming is a wonderful thing. Mrs. Totem's younger brother lives in Minnesota and frequently exclaims that his favorite season is winter, to which I say he must have been dropped on his head as a baby.

Totem

Can't tell if serious.


I prefer it that way.

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#22 Sep 21 2012 at 11:25 AM Rating: Decent
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The only thing I disagree with is the woe is the Earth comments, it was 3 degrees hotter just 400,000 years ago. Some life on this planet have lived through extreme heating and cooling. Really we haven't ever experienced it so we can't say what will really happen. In my honest opinion I think that it is being blown way out of proportion. If we cause ourselves to go extinct, natural progression and all that, just another failed organism in the multi billion year life of a little blue/green rock tucked in a far corner of an ever expanding universe.

Id rather spend money solving problems we face today, like the rampant hunger issues plaguing the world, issues that should have not existed since the Agricultural revolution, let alone the industrial revolution. I dunno, guess I am more of a realist and not into some spooky predictions of something that is completely hypothetical, and largely irrelevant.
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#23 Sep 21 2012 at 11:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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rdmcandie wrote:
If we cause ourselves to go extinct, natural progression and all that

Yeah, that's awesome and very deep of you and all but I'm really happier staying alive.
Quote:
Id rather spend money solving problems we face today, like the rampant hunger issues plaguing the world, issues that should have not existed since the Agricultural revolution, let alone the industrial revolution.

Modern hunger is a political problem. Change the climate enough and you'll have a hunger problem for the scientists, I suppose.

Edited, Sep 21st 2012 12:28pm by Jophiel
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#24 Sep 21 2012 at 11:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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The world couldn't possibly be 3 degrees hotter 400,000 years ago when it's clearly only a little over 2,000 years old. Mythbusted, *****.
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#25 Sep 21 2012 at 12:08 PM Rating: Good
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rdmcandie wrote:
The only thing I disagree with is the woe is the Earth comments, it was 3 degrees hotter just 400,000 years ago. Some life on this planet have lived through extreme heating and cooling. Really we haven't ever experienced it so we can't say what will really happen. In my honest opinion I think that it is being blown way out of proportion. If we cause ourselves to go extinct, natural progression and all that, just another failed organism in the multi billion year life of a little blue/green rock tucked in a far corner of an ever expanding universe.

Id rather spend money solving problems we face today, like the rampant hunger issues plaguing the world, issues that should have not existed since the Agricultural revolution, let alone the industrial revolution. I dunno, guess I am more of a realist and not into some spooky predictions of something that is completely hypothetical, and largely irrelevant.
I wouldn't call you a realist.
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#26 Sep 21 2012 at 12:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
rdmcandie wrote:
If we cause ourselves to go extinct, natural progression and all that

Yeah, that's awesome and very deep of you and all but I'm really happier staying alive.


If it makes you feel better, you'll be long dead when our descendants are clinging to a perilous existence in tropical Antarctica while the oceans boil away and giant swarms of super mosquito-cockroaches kill every other living thing with an antibiotic-resistant ebola plague.
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#27 Sep 21 2012 at 12:48 PM Rating: Decent
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Id rather spend money solving problems we face today, like the rampant hunger issues plaguing the world, issues that should have not existed since the Agricultural revolution, let alone the industrial revolution. I dunno, guess I am more of a realist and not into some spooky predictions of something that is completely hypothetical, and largely irrelevant.

Food production isn't the problem that leads to starvation. It's intentional. Societies in power need to maintain control over subject societies so they inflict varying degrees of stress on them. Sometimes letting thousands die through inaction, sometimes just killing them out of hand. How is the possibly not obvious given the history of mankind???
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#28 Sep 21 2012 at 12:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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someproteinguy wrote:
If it makes you feel better, you'll be long dead when our descendants are clinging to a perilous existence in tropical Antarctica while the oceans boil away and giant swarms of super mosquito-cockroaches kill every other living thing with an antibiotic-resistant ebola plague.

I'm more worried about the US after another couple years of drought. Granted, I probably won't be dead but I doubt it'll be working to my advantage either.

The "Well, the EARTH won't go away!" and associated arguments are as stupid as "You can still SAY you're married!" argument for SSM -- it completely misses the actual point of the debate.

Edited, Sep 21st 2012 1:56pm by Jophiel
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#29 Sep 21 2012 at 2:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
someproteinguy wrote:
If it makes you feel better, you'll be long dead when our descendants are clinging to a perilous existence in tropical Antarctica while the oceans boil away and giant swarms of super mosquito-cockroaches kill every other living thing with an antibiotic-resistant ebola plague.

I'm more worried about the US after another couple years of drought. Granted, I probably won't be dead but I doubt it'll be working to my advantage either.

Maybe your company could start working on integrating advanced irrigation systems...
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#30 Sep 21 2012 at 2:34 PM Rating: Excellent
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Right. Because in the midst of a multi-year drought, one thing we'd have a lot of is water Smiley: grin
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#31 Sep 21 2012 at 2:40 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Right. Because in the midst of a multi-year drought, one thing we'd have a lot of is water Smiley: grin

To help distribute what water is available, duh. Smiley: rolleyes


edit: wtf those smileys go?

Edited, Sep 21st 2012 4:41pm by Debalic
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#32 Sep 21 2012 at 2:44 PM Rating: Excellent
I seem to recall some scientist saying some years back that the canary in the coalmine was Antarctica. As long as the ice fields were stable there, we're a-ok.

Remember when that Connecticut-sized piece broke off the Ross ice sheet a few years back? OOPS

I'd laugh at you coasties drowning it it weren't for the terrible drought where I am.

Did I mention that the temps this last February hit or exceeded 70 F in South Dakota for most of the month?

HINT: This isn't anywhere near normal on an 100 year scale.
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#33 Sep 21 2012 at 3:12 PM Rating: Good
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The world couldn't possibly be 3 degrees hotter 400,000 years ago when it's clearly only a little over 2,000 years old. Mythbusted, *****.


Creationist's Timeline, 6000 year old scale.

Screenshot

Jesus fits in right around the tail end of the Archaen era.
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#34 Sep 21 2012 at 9:56 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
rdmcandie wrote:
If we cause ourselves to go extinct, natural progression and all that

Yeah, that's awesome and very deep of you and all but I'm really happier staying alive.
Quote:
Id rather spend money solving problems we face today, like the rampant hunger issues plaguing the world, issues that should have not existed since the Agricultural revolution, let alone the industrial revolution.

Modern hunger is a political problem. Change the climate enough and you'll have a hunger problem for the scientists, I suppose.

Edited, Sep 21st 2012 12:28pm by Jophiel


You and I have **** heads on this numerous times.

All I can say is, there is no conclusive evidence that humanity is the cause of this rise in temperature or if it is part of an overall natural cycle. I don't dismiss science, but I will call hypothetical, hypothetical when it is. Global Warming is an Opinion, shared by many many people, but is not a consensus, and it can not ever be, because this is the first time humans have been involved in the equation.

It was hotter 400,000 years ago, and are still progressing on a similar heating cycle.

I do not dismiss it, but nor do I buy into it.

Personally I don't think humans have the effect that scientists claim we do, but I do agree that there is something going on that we have never experienced before, and we should be frightened by it. It is only human nature.



Edited, Sep 21st 2012 11:58pm by rdmcandie
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#35 Sep 21 2012 at 10:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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None of that had anything to do with what I said but, sure. Glad you got it out of your system Smiley: smile
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#36 Sep 21 2012 at 10:44 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
None of that had anything to do with what I said but, sure. Glad you got it out of your system Smiley: smile


Well you are going to be dead before anything serious goes down anyway. I figured that was a given and you were just having a moment.
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#37 Sep 22 2012 at 1:34 AM Rating: Excellent
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It's all right if you don't have to suffer?

It's all right if any of us here on the forum don't have to suffer?
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#38 Sep 22 2012 at 2:14 AM Rating: Good
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rdmcandie wrote:
I do not dismiss it, but nor do I buy into it.


Then you're an idiot.

Greenhouse gases trap heat. This is proven. Green house gas levels correlate to overall climate change in the historical record. This is also proven. Human kind the last 150 years has produced levels of greenhouse gas that far exceed any natural variation observable in the historical record. This is proven.

Conclusion: You'd have to be an idiot to deny the effect mankind has had in altering the natural cycle.
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#39 Sep 22 2012 at 6:15 AM Rating: Excellent
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The scientists who are saying ACC is happening have taken into account natural climate cycles the earth goes through, including the fact that we're geologically slowly coming out of an ice age. They have definitely taken into account that the sun is going through a "hot phase" and is putting out more sunlight onto the Earth than it was a hundred years ago. They've taken into consideration all the volcanic activity releasing CO2. They've taken into consideration every conceivable background, natural explanation for temperature fluctuations and they STILL come up with 50% of the temperature rise over the last hundred years coming from human release of CO2 from under the Earth into the atmosphere.

There are now 40 extremely sophisticated computer models running all over the world that all pretty much agree with each other on where ACC has come from, what it's done to the Earth right now, and what effects it'll have on the Earth if X amounts of more CO2 is released over Y period of time.
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#40 Sep 22 2012 at 8:10 AM Rating: Good
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The emission of greenhouse gases in the U.S. per capita has actually fallen over the past decade or so.

If you want to lecture somebody, go to China; those little ******* are polluting like mad.
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#41 Sep 22 2012 at 8:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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Demea wrote:
The emission of greenhouse gases in the U.S. per capita has actually fallen over the past decade or so.

If you want to lecture somebody, go to China; those little @#%^ers are polluting like mad.


• The US is still number one in terms of per capita emissions among the big economies - with 18 tonnes emitted per person
• China, by contrast, emits under six tonnes per person, India only 1.38

~2012 figures
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#42 Sep 22 2012 at 8:49 AM Rating: Good
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Ari... you know that facts have no relevance in an emotional argument. Let's go get big bad China!!
#43 Sep 22 2012 at 10:26 AM Rating: Good
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Considering China has more than three times our population (four?)...I think it's a valid concern.
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#44 Sep 22 2012 at 10:29 AM Rating: Excellent
Don't forget about all the methane getting released in the Arctic as the (formerly) permafrost melts, further increasing the runaway green house effect.
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#45 Sep 22 2012 at 11:21 AM Rating: Default
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http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/geekquinox/antarctic-sea-ice-record-high-doesn-t-disprove-185906522.html

TLDR we think a bunch of **** is going on, but we don't know we haven't experienced it before. But we are certain that Global warming is real...but it might not be. We don't know.
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#46 Sep 22 2012 at 12:33 PM Rating: Good
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That's not at all what it says. When you give a "tl;dr", you might want to, you know, read it first.
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#47 Sep 23 2012 at 10:45 AM Rating: Decent
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Even if you don't believe it's happening, why take the chance?
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#48 Sep 23 2012 at 1:49 PM Rating: Good
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cidbahamut wrote:
Even if you don't believe it's happening, why take the chance?


It cuts into profits. Since the GOP is the loudest at saying it not our fault this is all that needs to be said.
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#49 Sep 23 2012 at 3:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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RavennofTitan wrote:
cidbahamut wrote:
Even if you don't believe it's happening, why take the chance?


It cuts into profits. Since the GOP is the loudest at saying it not our fault this is all that needs to be said.
Not everything cuts into profits. A lot of green initiatives have excellent ROI's.
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#50 Sep 23 2012 at 10:11 PM Rating: Default
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cidbahamut wrote:
Even if you don't believe it's happening, why take the chance?


Similar thought process resulted in a near decade war that helped bankrupt a nation. Speaking of did they ever find those pesky WMD's?
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#51 Sep 24 2012 at 6:12 AM Rating: Good
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rdmcandie wrote:
cidbahamut wrote:
Even if you don't believe it's happening, why take the chance?


Similar thought process resulted in a near decade war that helped bankrupt a nation. Speaking of did they ever find those pesky WMD's?

...and the two are comparative events how?

There is plenty of reason to wean ourselves off fossil fuels. The planet is already suffering from the effects of atmospheric changes due to increased levels of CO2. No need to 'wait and see' if it's going to happen. It has, it is, and will continue to do so. How much or how little the changing climate will impact you may be negligible, but there's no denying that burning fossil fuels is not sustainable, not healthy and is changing our atmosphere.

Human health effects of air pollution alone should have prompted us to continue to find better, cleaner and more efficient ways to create and use energy decades ago.
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