If the election happened today.Follow

Ok. That one would be fun to see on a bill board.

More good news for Romney:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/post-poll-tim-kaine-opens-first-lead-over-george-allen-in-va-senate-race/2012/09/19/4773acf8-01dd-11e2-9367-4e1bafb958db_story.html


Timothy M. Kaine has jumped ahead of George Allen for the first time in their U.S. Senate race, according to a new Washington Post poll in Virginia, changing the complexion of a nationally watched contest that could help determine which party controls the chamber.

Kaine (D) leads fellow former governor Allen (R) among likely voters by 51 percent to 43 percent in the poll, and Kaine is ahead among all registered voters by an identical margin in the hard-fought contest to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D).


What are the opposite of coattails? Oil slicks of incompetence? I'm sure the Washington Post is oversampling Tim Kaine supporters somehow.

A WBUR poll in Massachusetts voters finds challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%.

There's an obvious problem here, Joph. *Likely voters*. Brown voters are real hard working men and women who are smart enough to know they can't predict the future. When asked if they are "likely" to vote, they obviously give the only true answer possible: "Who can say, life is uncertain, I may be hit by a bus while rescuing puppies tomorrow. Happens all the time to us Brown supporters." Also, I suspect the poll question was phrased along the lines of "Would you vote for Warren if she were the only person alive other that you and you had to vote for someone not yourself or suffer a terribly painful death?" It seems pretty obvious that WBUR, an NPR affiliate (hello, bias?) would have phrased it this way. Landslide: Brown!

Well, the voter law requiring holy symbols on all government ID is bound to be struck as unconstitutional.

Couple polls showing Baldwin ahead or tied in WI now; she was previously trailing.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 1:02pm by Jophiel

Your mom was oversampled.

Chads hanging off her everywhere.


More ''voting' than 'polling' on that one, but fuck it, it counts.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 3:40pm by Eske

I pushed the google button.

I found lots of webpages referencing the problem, saying that it happens, etc. but it's a bit harder to find anything demonstrating or showing numbers or anything. Such is the nature of the internet I suppose. Lots of this graph though.

That's really what you're going to take away from this?

Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?

Getting paid to use survey analysis to drive predictive algorithms. You?

Yeah, Smash. Have you not learned yet that a good American hates and fears those who know more than he does?

I have a friend that works for Frito-Lay that describes his job the exact same way.

Getting paid to provide actual working solutions to real world problems that most people can't figure out because they're too busy listening to some idiot consultant who insists that his predictive model must be right even when it quite obviously isn't.

Weird that they pay me so much more for something that clearly doesn't work. Oh well, I retired at 40. Hahahaha. Sorry, I have to go have a little umbrella drink now.