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#52 Sep 19 2012 at 9:50 AM Rating: Excellent
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I don't know, It has a certain ring. Like Blue Sky Frog.

Duck Maverick Goose Jnr.
Duck Maverick Goose the Third.

Duck, Maverick & Goose, Attorneys at Law.
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#53 Sep 19 2012 at 9:55 AM Rating: Good
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Aripyanfar wrote:
Duck, Maverick & Goose, Attorneys at Law.


Ok. That one would be fun to see on a bill board.
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#54 Sep 19 2012 at 9:57 AM Rating: Good
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Dewey, Cheetum, & Howe.
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#55 Sep 19 2012 at 10:10 AM Rating: Good
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More good news for Romney:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/post-poll-tim-kaine-opens-first-lead-over-george-allen-in-va-senate-race/2012/09/19/4773acf8-01dd-11e2-9367-4e1bafb958db_story.html


Timothy M. Kaine has jumped ahead of George Allen for the first time in their U.S. Senate race, according to a new Washington Post poll in Virginia, changing the complexion of a nationally watched contest that could help determine which party controls the chamber.

Kaine (D) leads fellow former governor Allen (R) among likely voters by 51 percent to 43 percent in the poll, and Kaine is ahead among all registered voters by an identical margin in the hard-fought contest to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D).


What are the opposite of coattails? Oil slicks of incompetence? I'm sure the Washington Post is oversampling Tim Kaine supporters somehow.
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#56 Sep 19 2012 at 10:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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A WBUR poll in Massachusetts voters finds challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%.

It's the fourth poll in four days showing Warren with the lead.
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#57 Sep 19 2012 at 10:22 AM Rating: Good
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A WBUR poll in Massachusetts voters finds challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%.


There's an obvious problem here, Joph. *Likely voters*. Brown voters are real hard working men and women who are smart enough to know they can't predict the future. When asked if they are "likely" to vote, they obviously give the only true answer possible: "Who can say, life is uncertain, I may be hit by a bus while rescuing puppies tomorrow. Happens all the time to us Brown supporters." Also, I suspect the poll question was phrased along the lines of "Would you vote for Warren if she were the only person alive other that you and you had to vote for someone not yourself or suffer a terribly painful death?" It seems pretty obvious that WBUR, an NPR affiliate (hello, bias?) would have phrased it this way. Landslide: Brown!
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#58 Sep 19 2012 at 11:56 AM Rating: Good
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I've heard that 20% of likely warren voters are zombies who will be turned away at the polls due to new voter registration laws, giving brown a solid 4% lead.
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#59 Sep 19 2012 at 12:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, the voter law requiring holy symbols on all government ID is bound to be struck as unconstitutional.

Couple polls showing Baldwin ahead or tied in WI now; she was previously trailing.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 1:02pm by Jophiel
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#60 Sep 19 2012 at 12:07 PM Rating: Good
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That just means now they're oversampling.
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#61 Sep 19 2012 at 12:19 PM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
That just means now they're oversampling.


Your mom was oversampled.
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#62 Sep 19 2012 at 12:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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Eske Esquire wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
That just means now they're oversampling.


Your mom was oversampled.


Took a few too many polls.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 11:22am by someproteinguy
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#63 Sep 19 2012 at 1:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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someproteinguy wrote:
Eske Esquire wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
That just means now they're oversampling.


Your mom was oversampled.


Took a few too many polls.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 11:22am by someproteinguy


Chads hanging off her everywhere.


More ''voting' than 'polling' on that one, but fuck it, it counts.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 3:40pm by Eske
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#64 Sep 19 2012 at 2:33 PM Rating: Default
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Smasharoo wrote:

Huh? Didn't we just have a thread about this like a month or so ago where it was pointed out that a number of polls were oversampling (over weighting actually IIRC) Dem leaning people in their polls and their justification was precisely because of the voter turnout ratio from the 2008 election? Where the **** have you been? Hell. This was a big news story


Was it? I must have missed this "big story". Can you post a link to one of the articles discussing this "big story" where most polling firms admit they're oversampling Democratic voters based on 2008 turnout?


Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?
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#65 Sep 19 2012 at 2:54 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?


I pushed the google button.

I found lots of webpages referencing the problem, saying that it happens, etc. but it's a bit harder to find anything demonstrating or showing numbers or anything. Such is the nature of the internet I suppose. Lots of this graph though.
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#66 Sep 19 2012 at 3:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?

Ironically, in the linked thread, you're whining and **** about having to use Google because I didn't hold your hand Smiley: laugh
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#67 Sep 19 2012 at 3:46 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?

Ironically, in the linked thread, you're whining and **** about having to use Google because I didn't hold your hand Smiley: laugh


That's really what you're going to take away from this?
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#68 Sep 19 2012 at 4:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, I'm sure a discussion about polling would be as enriching as it has been in previous cycles so... sure. I'll happily notice you failing to live up to your own standards.

Let me know when Romney makes California as competitive as McCain did.
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#69 Sep 19 2012 at 4:53 PM Rating: Decent
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Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?


Getting paid to use survey analysis to drive predictive algorithms. You?
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#70 Sep 19 2012 at 5:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Getting paid to use survey analysis to drive predictive algorithms. You?

Christ, Smash. That'd make you an expert so now you're sure to be wrong. Only Gbaji's laser like man-on-the-street opinion can cut through your ivory tower elite book-learnin'.
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#71 Sep 19 2012 at 5:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, Smash. Have you not learned yet that a good American hates and fears those who know more than he does?
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#72 Sep 19 2012 at 6:17 PM Rating: Default
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Smasharoo wrote:


Your bar raising aside, it's not like it's hard to type "democrat oversampling" into a google search or anything. Where have you been living, under a rock?


Getting paid to use survey analysis to drive predictive algorithms.


There's a whole lot of issues with political party oversampling in surveys relating to medical devices? Who knew!

Quote:
You?


Getting paid to provide actual working solutions to real world problems that most people can't figure out because they're too busy listening to some idiot consultant who insists that his predictive model must be right even when it quite obviously isn't.
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#73 Sep 19 2012 at 6:22 PM Rating: Good
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I have a friend that works for Frito-Lay that describes his job the exact same way.
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#74 Sep 19 2012 at 6:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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Today's state polling dump...
Quote:
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Fox News)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Fox News)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Fox News)

Wisconsin:Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Wisconsin: Obama 54%, Romney 40% (Marquette Law School)

Oversample! Oversample! ALL OF THEM OVERSAMPLES!!!
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#75 Sep 19 2012 at 6:34 PM Rating: Decent
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Getting paid to provide actual working solutions to real world problems that most people can't figure out because they're too busy listening to some idiot consultant who insists that his predictive model must be right even when it quite obviously isn't.

Weird that they pay me so much more for something that clearly doesn't work. Oh well, I retired at 40. Hahahaha. Sorry, I have to go have a little umbrella drink now.
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#76 Sep 19 2012 at 6:40 PM Rating: Good
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Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)


Read somewhere that Romney is abandoning Penn. Or at least ad buys there, which amounts to the same thing. I don't have cite, maybe it's wrong. If true, that's a sad state of affairs for the GOP. If Obamma doesn't have to defend Penn, a lot of the ground game stuff can shift to Ohio. Oh hai!, Oh...we're gonna win, huh?
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a whore. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#77 Sep 19 2012 at 6:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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I heard the same. Romney is pulling out of Pennsylvania and Michigan and moving money to states where he's not ~10 points behind.
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#78 Sep 19 2012 at 8:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Getting paid to provide actual working solutions to real world problems that most people can't figure out because they're too busy listening to some idiot consultant who insists that his predictive model must be right even when it quite obviously isn't.

Weird that they pay me so much more for something that clearly doesn't work. Oh well, I retired at 40. Hahahaha. Sorry, I have to go have a little umbrella drink now.

Wait, if you retifed at 40 then why are you still working? Your 401k tank?
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#79 Sep 19 2012 at 8:39 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:
Getting paid to provide actual working solutions to real world problems that most people can't figure out because they're too busy listening to some idiot consultant who insists that his predictive model must be right even when it quite obviously isn't.

Weird that they pay me so much more for something that clearly doesn't work. Oh well, I retired at 40. Hahahaha. Sorry, I have to go have a little umbrella drink now.

Wait, if you retired at 40 then why are you still working?

He's a house-husband/daddy now, iirc.

Edited, Sep 19th 2012 8:40pm by Bijou
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#80 Sep 20 2012 at 1:01 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Oversample! Oversample! ALL OF THEM OVERSAMPLES!!!
Especially those **** liberal communists at Fox, they're the worst.
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#81 Sep 20 2012 at 3:20 AM Rating: Good
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The baby is bound to come out red. Oh wait, that joke works everywhere else in the world except the USA. Drat.
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#82 Sep 20 2012 at 7:03 AM Rating: Decent
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He's a house-husband/daddy now, iirc.


Correct. No income tax, baby! I wonder if I can get food stamps.....

(I'll still be paying income tax, have no fear)
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#83 Sep 20 2012 at 10:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Boehner has probably helped the surprisingly competitive Democratic senate candidates in Montana, North Dakota and Indiana now that he's said the House GOP won't bring up the farm bill before they go on recess until after the election. The bill passed with legitimate bipartisan support in the Senate, passed the House committee but is being blocked by the Republican House leadership.
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#84 Sep 20 2012 at 11:09 AM Rating: Decent
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Boehner has probably helped the surprisingly competitive Democratic senate candidates in Montana, North Dakota and Indiana now that he's said the House GOP won't bring up the farm bill before they go on recess until after the election. The bill passed with legitimate bipartisan support in the Senate, passed the House committee but is being blocked by the Republican House leadership.

Also I heard he was going to allow dancing.
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#85 Sep 20 2012 at 12:21 PM Rating: Good
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Aripyanfar wrote:
The baby is bound to come out red. Oh wait, that joke works everywhere else in the world except the USA. Drat.


I take it you mean either republican or communist. I mean, those are our political parties.
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#86 Sep 20 2012 at 12:22 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:
Also I heard he was going to allow dancing.
F'in pinkos.
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#88 Sep 20 2012 at 12:31 PM Rating: Good
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Yeah we know that Obama failed at this even though he probably worked really hard at it.
Lucky you. All the voices in my head do is hum the Tetris theme.
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#89 Sep 20 2012 at 4:37 PM Rating: Good
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lolgaxe wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
Yeah we know that Obama failed at this even though he probably worked really hard at it.
Lucky you. All the voices in my head do is hum the Tetris theme.

OH MY GOD YOU JUST EARWORMED ME
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#90 Sep 21 2012 at 11:32 AM Rating: Decent
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I had a laugh.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-buzz/yes-canada-comedians-enter-canada-candidate-u-presidential-170538569.html
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#91 Sep 21 2012 at 11:35 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
crazylegz1975 wrote:
Yeah we know that Obama failed at this even though he probably worked really hard at it.
Lucky you. All the voices in my head do is hum the Tetris theme.
OH MY GOD YOU JUST EARWORMED ME
Winning.
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#92 Sep 21 2012 at 11:56 AM Rating: Good
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Interestingly, it turns out Romney's big fundraising numbers since the primary was over were so much smoke. (They combined money earmarked for RNC national elections into their campaign totals, but the campaign itself can't touch that money. ) So, his campaign is running out of money already.

That's why they're pulling out of states that are looking bad for them, and leaving those to the super PACs.

Oh well. Sucks to be them. Excuse me while I go toss another three bucks at the Obama campaign.
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#93 Sep 21 2012 at 12:15 PM Rating: Decent
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Hmm. I'm going to assume the NBC people tricked the Wall St Journal folks by telling them there was a **** cabaret show in the next room during the polling.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443890304578008773934388786.html


Mitt Romney's path to victory is narrowing, new polling data suggest, presenting challenges for the Republican nominee at a moment when he is trying to rebound from a week of bad headlines by refocusing on federal spending.

President Barack Obama has opened an eight percentage-point lead in Iowa and maintains a five-point edge in Colorado and Wisconsin, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys of the three presidential battlegrounds released Thursday.
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#94 Sep 21 2012 at 12:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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That was with a D+100 sample, you know.

If Obama is only leading Colorado by 5 with a 100pt Dem oversample, it's obvious that he'd doomed.

Quote:
So, his campaign is running out of money already.

It's sounding like the official groups have run the board this last month. Obama, the DCCC and DSCC all outraised the other side. As did the official Obama PAC.

GOP affiliated PACs did better last month but Democratic ones were closing the gap. Also, per Electoral-Vote.com, TV stations have to give the campaigns their best ad buy rates by law but can charge other groups whatever the market will bear. So a campaign dollar is worth more than a PAC dollar for ad buying purposes.

Edited, Sep 21st 2012 1:19pm by Jophiel
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#95 Sep 21 2012 at 2:37 PM Rating: Decent
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I heard Rush admitting today that Obama was sweeping the swing states, and that the GOP's only hope now was to take the Senate.
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#96 Sep 21 2012 at 10:01 PM Rating: Decent
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Debalic wrote:
I heard Rush admitting today that Obama was sweeping the swing states, and that the GOP's only hope now was to take the Senate.


They aren't looking to good there either I don't think.
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