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#202 Feb 15 2012 at 5:58 PM Rating: Decent
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Friar Bijou wrote:
If I understand gbaji correctly; if 90 sources say one thing and 10 say the opposite...the 90 are all biased?


You understand incorrectly. I don't assume that if 90 say one thing that they must be correct. That's not the same thing. I point out bias when I see bias. Doesn't matter if one source says it, or 100. But I can see how someone who does base his positions via the fallacy of popularity might frame it within that context. You can't comprehend someone not taking number of sources into account, so you assume they're using the same method you use, just in the opposite direction.

Edited, Feb 15th 2012 3:59pm by gbaji
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#203 Feb 15 2012 at 6:49 PM Rating: Good
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Friar Bijou wrote:
If I understand gbaji correctly; if 90 sources say one thing and 10 say the opposite...the 90 are all biased?

Only if they're actually experts in the field in question. Then they're biased. Only those not in the milieu can give an accurate statement.
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#204 Feb 15 2012 at 8:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Debalic wrote:
Friar Bijou wrote:
If I understand gbaji correctly; if 90 sources say one thing and 10 say the opposite...the 90 are all biased?

Only if they're actually experts in the field in question. Then they're biased. Only those not in the milieu can give an accurate statement.


I call people biased when I see bias in what they do. That is the same whether that person is an expert or not. The difference is that some people are so impressed by the label of "expert" that they don't see, or choose to ignore, obvious bias.

I derive my positions on issues based on my own ideas and my own analysis. Period. If someone else disagrees with me, they're free to do so. However, I'm not going to change my own mind because someone points to someone else who disagrees with me and says "that guys an expert, so he must be right and you must be wrong". To me, that's a pretty stupid way to make decisions.
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#205 Feb 15 2012 at 8:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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I derive my positions on issues based on my own ideas and my own analysis. Period. If someone else disagrees with me, they're free to do so. However, I'm not going to change my own mind because someone points to someone else who disagrees with me and says "that guys an expert, so he must be right and you must be wrong". To me, that's a pretty stupid way to make decisions.


Exactly. My lawyer is a smart and honest fellow, and that's why I have him perform all of my surgeries and vehicle maintenance. Expertise is for suckers.

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#206 Feb 15 2012 at 9:06 PM Rating: Default
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Smasharoo wrote:

I derive my positions on issues based on my own ideas and my own analysis. Period. If someone else disagrees with me, they're free to do so. However, I'm not going to change my own mind because someone points to someone else who disagrees with me and says "that guys an expert, so he must be right and you must be wrong". To me, that's a pretty stupid way to make decisions.


Exactly. My lawyer is a smart and honest fellow, and that's why I have him perform all of my surgeries and vehicle maintenance. Expertise is for suckers.


Except you still did it wrong. You've just chosen the wrong expert. Can't blame you for having a hard time shifting from that base methodology though. It's ingrained in most liberals to not think for themselves I guess.


Can we also please make a distinction between having a bias and skill in a field? Your mechanic may be outstanding at fixing cars, but that doesn't stop him from talking at length about how a specific brand of car is the best, right? Just because he's an expert doesn't mean he's not biased. And it also doesn't mean that you should blindly follow his advice when it comes to which brand of car to buy. Similarly, your doctor may be very good at his job, but that doesn't mean that his constant ranting about how everyone should jog 15 miles a day and eat nothing but vegetables and nuts washed down with a wheatgrass smoothie isn't likely also more about personal bias and lifestyle than solid medical advice.


I don't discount what people say because they are experts, and certainly not everything that experts say. But I also don't assume that every word out of someone's mouth must be true simply because they are an expert at something. I'll take my mechanics advice about whether I need my brakes repaired, but take his proclamation that "mopar is the best!" with a grain of salt. And let's face it, some fields are far more subjective than others, and being an expert in them has less to do with demonstrated results and more to do with getting lots of other people to apply the label to you.

Edited, Feb 15th 2012 7:08pm by gbaji
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#207 Feb 15 2012 at 9:36 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
I derive my positions on issues based on my own ideas and my own analysis. Period. If someone else disagrees with me, they're free to do so. However, I'm not going to change my own mind because someone points to someone else who disagrees with me and says "that guys an expert, so he must be right and you must be wrong". To me, that's a pretty stupid way to make decisions.

gbaji wrote:
Can we also please make a distinction between having a bias and skill in a field? Your mechanic may be outstanding at fixing cars, but that doesn't stop him from talking at length about how a specific brand of car is the best, right? Just because he's an expert doesn't mean he's not biased. And it also doesn't mean that you should blindly follow his advice when it comes to which brand of car to buy. Similarly, your doctor may be very good at his job, but that doesn't mean that his constant ranting about how everyone should jog 15 miles a day and eat nothing but vegetables and nuts washed down with a wheatgrass smoothie isn't likely also more about personal bias and lifestyle than solid medical advice.

I don't discount what people say because they are experts, and certainly not everything that experts say. But I also don't assume that every word out of someone's mouth must be true simply because they are an expert at something. I'll take my mechanics advice about whether I need my brakes repaired, but take his proclamation that "mopar is the best!" with a grain of salt. And let's face it, some fields are far more subjective than others, and being an expert in them has less to do with demonstrated results and more to do with getting lots of other people to apply the label to you.

Okay, but if I'm looking for info on automotive maintenance, I would give the word of an auto mechanic much more weight than that of, say, an IT technician. I mean, I'm sure you can do a great oil change but it's not the same as someone who's certified and spent twenty years in a garage rebuilding engines.
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#208 Feb 15 2012 at 10:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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BrownDuck wrote:
DP.

Edited, Feb 15th 2012 6:55am by BrownDuck
You want them to DP, too?
#209 Feb 15 2012 at 11:20 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
I derive my positions on issues based on my own ideas and my own analysis.

Which would be commendable if you ever displayed even an inkling of awareness about what's going on in the world for you to draw an "analysis" from. Someone who proudly proclaims that they don't get their news from anywhere isn't someone I'd go to for analysis of what that news means.

Debalic wrote:
I mean, this thread was originally about football, after all.

You can start a thread and try to give it direction but ultimately it'll go its own way. Consider it a lesson in fatherhood.
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#210 Feb 16 2012 at 9:04 AM Rating: Decent
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Debalic wrote:
I mean, this thread was originally about football, after all.

You can start a thread and try to give it direction but ultimately it'll go its own way. Consider it a lesson in fatherhood.[/quote]
Fine. This thread's getting a timeout. Y'all go to your rooms.

And no TV!
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#211 Feb 16 2012 at 9:29 AM Rating: Good
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But moooooooooom~
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#212 Feb 16 2012 at 10:18 AM Rating: Excellent
Gbaji wrote:
Can we also please make a distinction between having a bias and skill in a field?


Thats why the global warming denialists get their data from the oil industry financed scientists whom aren't skilled in the field of climate change.

By being so skilled (at things besides climate change), & having no bias at all (HA!), their data is totally better than all those edumicated experts whom scrape by for grant money. It isn't even close.

On topic, Giselle is a bit of a cunt.

Edited, Feb 16th 2012 11:19am by Omegavegeta
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#213 Feb 16 2012 at 11:04 AM Rating: Good
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Omegavegeta wrote:
Gbaji wrote:
Can we also please make a distinction between having a bias and skill in a field?
Thats why the global warming denialists get their data from the oil industry financed scientists whom aren't skilled in the field of climate change.

That's why Gbaji *********** with glee when a thousand architects, digital watch designers and piscologists sign a form saying they don't believe in climate change but throws a hissy fit when presented with a hundred peer reviewed studies from climate scientists.

Edited, Feb 16th 2012 11:04am by Jophiel
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#214 Feb 16 2012 at 4:48 PM Rating: Decent
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Debalic wrote:
Okay, but if I'm looking for info on automotive maintenance, I would give the word of an auto mechanic much more weight than that of, say, an IT technician. I mean, I'm sure you can do a great oil change but it's not the same as someone who's certified and spent twenty years in a garage rebuilding engines.


Sure. But there's a difference between technical knowledge and skill (like changing oil, or rebuilding an engine) and opinions on things/products/whatever related to the field. Your mechanic certainly has a favorite brand of oil as well. But the guy at the next shop might have a different one. Trying to argue that one is right and the other wrong is silly. At that point, we're dealing with individual biases that have little to do with one being an "expert" in the field.

Similarly, someone insisting that a given economic policy is "best" because some list of experts in the field say so is reacting to bias. He's pretty much arbitrarily picking a side to believe. And that's a ****-poor method to use to make a decision IMO.
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#215 Feb 16 2012 at 4:51 PM Rating: Decent
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Omegavegeta wrote:
Gbaji wrote:
Can we also please make a distinction between having a bias and skill in a field?


Thats why the global warming denialists get their data from the oil industry financed scientists whom aren't skilled in the field of climate change.


And the global warming advocates get their data from government financed scientists who have a vested interest in producing scientific results which aid the policy agenda of their employers.


And, at the risk of injecting reality into the equation, those IPCC experts were wrong. Those untrained monkeys working for the oil companies (as you claim) were right. So perhaps one would start to realize that just because a group of people are touted as experts doesn't mean that they are right. Doubly so, when in this case, the definition of "expert" seems to rest on whether someone agrees with science which supports those political agendas.
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#216 Feb 16 2012 at 4:53 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
And, at the risk of injecting reality into the equation,
There's about as much risk of you injecting reality into any equation as there is for my car to turn into a bear.
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#217 Feb 16 2012 at 5:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
And the global warming advocates get their data from government financed scientists who have a vested interest in producing scientific results which aid the policy agenda of their employers.

President Bush?
gbaji wrote:
And, at the risk of injecting reality into the equation, those IPCC experts were wrong

Huh.
NASA wrote:
The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which monitors global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated analysis that shows temperatures around the globe in 2011 compared to the average global temperature from the mid-20th century. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92°F (0.51°C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.

You mean, we haven't seen the extreme end of the potential spectrum so that means (in your mind) there's no validity to it at all, right?

Ah, don't bother answering. I could have more intelligent climate debates with my toddler.
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#218 Feb 16 2012 at 5:45 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
And the global warming advocates get their data from government financed scientists who have a vested interest in producing scientific results which aid the policy agenda of their employers.

President Bush?
gbaji wrote:
And, at the risk of injecting reality into the equation, those IPCC experts were wrong

Huh.


Yeah. They were wrong. Not with the base data, but with their interpretation of it, and the recommendations the made based on it.

Quote:
NASA wrote:
The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which monitors global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated analysis that shows temperatures around the globe in 2011 compared to the average global temperature from the mid-20th century. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92°F (0.51°C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.

You mean, we haven't seen the extreme end of the potential spectrum so that means (in your mind) there's no validity to it at all, right?


No. I mean that the evidence over the last decade indicates that we reached a plateau in the late 90s and/or early 2000s. During that plateau time its expected that temperatures will be higher than in previous measured periods. That's why it's a plateau.

What we have not seen is the predicted continuation of temperature increase. That is where the IPCC was wrong. They were wrong to predict that outcome. They were wrong about the impact of CO2 emissions on the whole thing. The IPCC didn't just say "it'll be hot in the next decade". They said that CO2 emissions were causing a small but constant runaway greenhouse gas effect which would continue to cause average temperatures to rise, resulting in ecological disaster unless we pass draconian measures to reduce CO2 emissions.


They were wrong. Get it? Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Their recommendations were clearly more about excuses to impose anti-industrial policies than it was about the actual science. Some of us saw this immediately and have been trying to get the rest of the sheep like idiots to realize this. I'm still waiting for the day when you'll realize that the projections you accepted as gospel truth 10 years ago have not come true, and will admit that you got suckered.


You do remember our arguments about this back in the 2001/2002 time frame, right? When you posted graphs showing the various scientific projections based on ACC climate models all showing steadily rising global temperatures going forward? When was the last time you saw someone reference those same graphs Joph? I mean, wouldn't it be great to show just how accurately they predicted temperatures? Wouldn't that be front and center on every global warming site if they'd turned out to be true? So isn't the fact that pretty much the only place you can find those old predictions is on the global warming skeptics sites incredibly telling?


They were wrong. Some of us saw this. Some of us didn't.

Quote:
Ah, don't bother answering. I could have more intelligent climate debates with my toddler.


So you admit that your position is so weak that only a toddler can buy it? Ok. Sounds good to me!
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#219 Feb 16 2012 at 5:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
You do remember our arguments about this back in the 2001/2002 time frame, right? When you posted graphs showing the various scientific projections based on ACC climate models all showing steadily rising global temperatures going forward?

Rather than just copy someone else's work...

Quote:
They were wrong. Get it? Wrong. Wrong. Wrong

mmhmmm... Well, it's nice that you think so.
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#220 Feb 16 2012 at 6:52 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Debalic wrote:
Okay, but if I'm looking for info on automotive maintenance, I would give the word of an auto mechanic much more weight than that of, say, an IT technician. I mean, I'm sure you can do a great oil change but it's not the same as someone who's certified and spent twenty years in a garage rebuilding engines.


Sure. But there's a difference between technical knowledge and skill (like changing oil, or rebuilding an engine) and opinions on things/products/whatever related to the field. Your mechanic certainly has a favorite brand of oil as well. But the guy at the next shop might have a different one. Trying to argue that one is right and the other wrong is silly. At that point, we're dealing with individual biases that have little to do with one being an "expert" in the field.

Similarly, someone insisting that a given economic policy is "best" because some list of experts in the field say so is reacting to bias. He's pretty much arbitrarily picking a side to believe. And that's a ****-poor method to use to make a decision IMO.

I would still trust the knowledge and skill of such professionals in their own field, than some random plebe who "calls it as he sees it". Bias is irrelevant on an uninformed opinion.
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#221 Feb 16 2012 at 8:30 PM Rating: Good
Gbaji is an idiot.
#222 Feb 17 2012 at 2:14 AM Rating: Excellent
It took them awhile, but now even a Koch brothers funded study done by non climate scientists agree that global warming is real!

Linky.

Key Quotes:
Quote:


"Our biggest surprise was that the new results agreed so closely with the warming values published previously by other teams in the US and the UK," said Prof Muller.

"This confirms that these studies were done carefully and that potential biases identified by climate change sceptics did not seriously affect their conclusions."

Since the 1950s, the average temperature over land has increased by 1C, the group found.

But they emphasise that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by greenhouse gas emissions is very much in their picture.

"Had we found no global warming, then that would have ruled out AGW," said Prof Muller.

"Had we found half as much, it would have suggested that prior estimates [of AGW] were too large; if we had found more warming, it would have raised the question of whether prior estimates were too low.

"But we didn't; we found that the prior rise was confirmed. That means that we do not directly affect prior estimates."


Hows it effect your worldview, Gbaji, when even denialist funded research by non climate experts supports the claims of the actual climate scientists & confirm their data? When even the ******** whom was instrumental in "climategate" comes back with, "I didn't like their methods so I used my own and...they were right all along"?

My guess is you'll just ignore the data, since it conflicts with your worldview.
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#223 Feb 17 2012 at 7:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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Well, independent verification never hurts.

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#224 Feb 17 2012 at 8:13 AM Rating: Excellent
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It hurts if it says what you disagree with.
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#225 Feb 17 2012 at 3:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
You do remember our arguments about this back in the 2001/2002 time frame, right? When you posted graphs showing the various scientific projections based on ACC climate models all showing steadily rising global temperatures going forward?

Rather than just copy someone else's work...


They present a wonderful strawman, but apparently they failed to note that the actual IPCC projections have failed to match what has actually occurred between 2000 and 2010. And they also fail to acknowledge that the gravest projections are the ones used politically to push for various legislation related to global warming. When a politician stands at a podium and talks about how if we don't pass this law, in 50 years, the water levels will rise 18 inches flooding cities, and droughts will occur in land, and other horrible things will happen. He's not basing that on the lowest IPCC projections, or even the average ones. He's looking at the worst ones.


It's somewhat dishonest to point to science and say "It predicts a range of possible outcomes, so it's not wrong", while defending political decisions based on a small and extreme subset of those possible outcomes. When people like me argue this issue, we're not arguing against the science itself. I know that would fit in better with the whole "Conservatives oppose science" dynamic you've got going on, but it's not true. We argue against the interpretation of that science (in this case by the IPCC), and the political agendas that are pushed by those interpretations. It's the guy at the podium, using some report from the IPCC to justify talking about flooding and droughts and deserts and frogs from heaven if we don't pass his pet environmental law that we oppose.

Quote:
Quote:
They were wrong. Get it? Wrong. Wrong. Wrong

mmhmmm... Well, it's nice that you think so.


Look at your own link. Ignore the argument they're countering and look at the actual IPCC projections. They don't match. None of them match. Temperatures have more or less flattened over the last decade, but every single one of those projections shows a steady linear increase in temperature over time. There are specific variations and fluxuations, of course, but there's no decade in any of those lines that don't show an overall increase.

But that didn't happen in the last 10 years. The reason that is problematic for those projections is because the model they are based on assumes small effects that act in a feedback loop to create a large effect over time. The absence of a smallish effect in the first decades means that the larger effects predicted over the first 50 years, or 100 years are even farther off.
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#226 Feb 17 2012 at 3:31 PM Rating: Decent
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Samira wrote:
Well, independent verification never hurts.



They only determined that the historical temperature measurements were correct. Which frankly, almost no one was arguing against in the first place. What they did not confirm was the effect of human activity on that temperature change, nor the models used to create temperature projections based on CO2 levels in the future.


But it's the latter bits that really matter.
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