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Sceptics conclude Earth has warmedFollow

#1 Oct 21 2011 at 3:33 AM Rating: Good
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A group of scientists known for their scepticism about climate change has reanalysed two centuries' worth of global temperature records. Their study largely confirms previous ones: it finds strong evidence that Earth is getting hotter.

"The valid issues raised by [climate] sceptics, when addressed fully and in detail, do not significantly change the answer," says lead author Richard Muller of the University of California, Berkeley. In a testimony to the US Congress earlier this year, Muller questioned whether global temperature records showed a significant warming during the 20th century.

[...]

BEST concludes that land temperatures have risen by 1 °C since the 1950s. This is largely in line with the three existing global temperature records: GISTEMP, maintained by NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's GHCN and HadCRU, kept by the UK Met Office. The 1 °C of warming reflects warming above land masses only, so is not yet a truly global estimate.



The papers have not yet been peer reviewed, but this seems like progress to me. Thoughts?
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#2 Oct 21 2011 at 3:51 AM Rating: Default
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eh earth heats up and cools down all the time, the issue isn't "the world has heated up" it is how much has the human impact really been. Considering we have no records from the previous ice age demonstrating contributing factors, we really have no idea if this is just an ongoing cycle, or if we have in fact increased the speed of the heating/cooling phase.

Pretty naive to think that over the last 200 years we have destroyed a multi million year cycle.
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#3 Oct 21 2011 at 4:37 AM Rating: Good
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Eh, it's not just over the past 200 years, though.


I mean, domestication of livestock pretty much ended the last ice age. Y'know, increased methane levels and all that.


I could say it's pretty naive to say we've had no impact at all.
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#4 Oct 21 2011 at 4:40 AM Rating: Good
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Nilatai wrote:
I could say it's pretty naive to say we've had no impact at all.
Good thing that's not what he said then.
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#5 Oct 21 2011 at 5:00 AM Rating: Good
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Uglysasquatch wrote:
Nilatai wrote:
I could say it's pretty naive to say we've had no impact at all.
Good thing that's not what he said then.

I know he didn't. Some people do, though.
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#6 Oct 21 2011 at 5:36 AM Rating: Good
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The importance of this is that two actual scientists who were the beloved pets of the climate-changed deniers have said, "You know what? The other guys are right. We were wrong. Oh well."

The climate-change deniers are going to be following suit aaaaaaaany minute now. Just you watch and wait. Any minute now.
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#7 Oct 21 2011 at 6:16 AM Rating: Good
rdm wrote:
eh earth heats up and cools down all the time, the issue isn't "the world has heated up" it is how much has the human impact really been.


Nah, the issue is "how much money can we keep making off of oil?" before the public wises up & realizes they're ******** themselves over & future generations.

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#8 Oct 21 2011 at 6:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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catwho wrote:
The importance of this is that two actual scientists who were the beloved pets of the climate-changed deniers have said, "You know what? The other guys are right. We were wrong. Oh well."

The climate-change deniers are going to be following suit aaaaaaaany minute now. Just you watch and wait. Any minute now.

You know the response will be they sold out to the man when they realized they couldn't get any funding by denying Obama's human-caused climate change scheme Smiley: rolleyes
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#9 Oct 21 2011 at 6:30 AM Rating: Good
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catwho wrote:
The importance of this is that two actual scientists who were the beloved pets of the climate-changed deniers have said, "You know what? The other guys are right. We were wrong. Oh well."


And this is why Science! Will always win. It is rational and has room to admit error. How long until some right wing nut claims that Jesus is coming back soon so what we do to the earth now doesn't matter.
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#10 Oct 21 2011 at 6:44 AM Rating: Excellent
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#11 Oct 21 2011 at 6:44 AM Rating: Good
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rdmcandie wrote:
eh earth heats up and cools down all the time, the issue isn't "the world has heated up" it is how much has the human impact really been. Considering we have no records from the previous ice age demonstrating contributing factors, we really have no idea if this is just an ongoing cycle, or if we have in fact increased the speed of the heating/cooling phase.

Pretty naive to think that over the last 200 years we have destroyed a multi million year cycle.

It's naive to think we could pump billions of gallons of oil out of the ground, add to that a few billion tons of coal, burn it all (inefficiently no less), and NOT have some impact on our planetary environment.






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#12 Oct 21 2011 at 6:55 AM Rating: Excellent
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So we can travel to the moon, drive wide-spread species into extinction, reverse the flow of rivers and split the atom but it's "naive" to think we can influence an existing climate cycle into exaggerated results given hundreds of years.

Nice logic, Rush Limbaugh Smiley: dubious

Edited, Oct 21st 2011 7:56am by Jophiel
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#13 Oct 21 2011 at 6:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'd like a winter without three feet of snow.
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#14 Oct 21 2011 at 7:15 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
I'd like a winter without three feet of snow.


You'd like three feet of rain instead?

Seriously though, the people down-river of NY wouldn't mind you all getting less snow, either. I hear annual flooding is just the best.
#15 Oct 21 2011 at 8:05 AM Rating: Good
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Nilatai wrote:
but this seems like progress to me. Thoughts?

Not really. It makes a nice story, but it doesn't matter. The science was settled long ago. All that's left is a battle for public opinion, and this is a kernel in a cornfield.
#16 Oct 21 2011 at 8:07 AM Rating: Good
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Allegory wrote:
Nilatai wrote:
but this seems like progress to me. Thoughts?

Not really. It makes a nice story, but it doesn't matter. The science was settled long ago. All that's left is a battle for public opinion, and this is a kernel in a cornfield.

I was of the opinion that the less "experts" who disagree with the science means less idiots can jump on the controversy band wagon.


Every little helps, and all that.
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#17 Oct 21 2011 at 8:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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Nilatai wrote:
Allegory wrote:
Nilatai wrote:
but this seems like progress to me. Thoughts?

Not really. It makes a nice story, but it doesn't matter. The science was settled long ago. All that's left is a battle for public opinion, and this is a kernel in a cornfield.

I was of the opinion that the less "experts" who disagree with the science means less idiots can jump on the controversy band wagon.


Every little helps, and all that.

Doesn't help with the vaccines = autism thing (which ZERO scientists agree with). I think Al's right; the science is there. The only issues are: how MUCH of an impact do humans have, and having people actually believe the facts.
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#18 Oct 21 2011 at 8:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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ChanchanXI wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
I'd like a winter without three feet of snow.
You'd like three feet of rain instead?
Yes, since once the rain stops it's easier to move my car and to park. Biggest issue is three feet of falling snow turns into about five feet of piled on the side of the roads packed snow after the snowplows drive by and not having to dig out afterwards would always be a plus.
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#19 Oct 21 2011 at 8:37 AM Rating: Good
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Nilatai wrote:
Every little helps, and all that.

Not that my first name is Debby, but if every day 1 person were to switch sides on this issue then it would take 40,000 years for 5% of America's current population to sway to one side. To put the "little" into perspective.

I need to leave shortly so I can't say all that I want to say, but I find the issue of climate change to be a very interesting and saddening sociological conundrum.
#20 Oct 21 2011 at 10:03 AM Rating: Good
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ChanchanXI wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
I'd like a winter without three feet of snow.


You'd like three feet of rain instead?

Seriously though, the people down-river of NY wouldn't mind you all getting less snow, either. I hear annual flooding is just the best.

That's what you get for living in New Jersey. We're just trying to wash it into the ocean.
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#22 Oct 21 2011 at 10:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
I'd like a winter without three feet of snow.


Come out here. It started raining already; should stop sometime in June. Though to be fair, we will have an occasional sun break. Smiley: wink
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#23 Oct 21 2011 at 1:23 PM Rating: Default
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Elinda wrote:
rdmcandie wrote:
eh earth heats up and cools down all the time, the issue isn't "the world has heated up" it is how much has the human impact really been. Considering we have no records from the previous ice age demonstrating contributing factors, we really have no idea if this is just an ongoing cycle, or if we have in fact increased the speed of the heating/cooling phase.

Pretty naive to think that over the last 200 years we have destroyed a multi million year cycle.

It's naive to think we could pump billions of gallons of oil out of the ground, add to that a few billion tons of coal, burn it all (inefficiently no less), and NOT have some impact on our planetary environment.



That is very true, but we have no concrete evidence of how much we have actually contributed. It is one thing to say we have seen an increase of X degrees since the industrial revolution. But we have no data to compare it to. We have no records of how temperatures fluctuated 500 years ago let alone prior to the onset of the last ice age. We do know that the earth has heated and cooled several times over the ages, but we have no data to reflect on the human contribution to the current cycle other than some 200 years worth of documented facts.

I am not saying that we have had no impact, obviously we have, but to what extent is anyone's guess. We could be responsible for a fraction of the increase, or we could even be slowing the natural cycle down. No one knows for sure because we have no supporting evidence either way. All we know is that the world is warmer then it was 200 years ago. That is it.
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#24 Oct 21 2011 at 2:30 PM Rating: Decent
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catwho wrote:
The importance of this is that two actual scientists who were the beloved pets of the climate-changed deniers have said, "You know what? The other guys are right. We were wrong. Oh well."


Strange, that's not what I read in that article at all. It looked a lot more like them saying that "on the question of whether the globe has actually even heated up in the last couple centuries, we agree that the evidence shows that it likely has", followed up with "But this doesn't affect in any way the question of what degree human activity has had to do with that temperature change". Or did you miss that part?

Very few ACC skeptics argue the issue of whether the earth has gotten warmer over the last couple centuries. They argue about how much of that is caused by man, and whether the proposed solutions are worth doing much less necessary. The question of verifying whether the earth actually has gotten warmer is relevant to the whole issue, but while important for those arguing *for* dramatic action to save the earth from man's harmful actions, it's not important at all for those on the other side of the issue.


If this were a legal battle, one side just established standing for the case to even move forward. I suppose you could call this a victory for the pro-ACC side because it prevents their case from being tossed out right off the bat, but it's far far far from proving their case.

Edited, Oct 21st 2011 1:31pm by gbaji
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#25 Oct 21 2011 at 2:47 PM Rating: Excellent
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I wouldn't even go that far.

My take on it is simply put: the heat islands caused by cities wasn't a significant source of error for temperature trends detected in previous studies.

Really that work would have been done by a grad student if climate science wasn't so politically charged. Smiley: rolleyes
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#26 Oct 21 2011 at 4:59 PM Rating: Decent
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someproteinguy wrote:
I wouldn't even go that far.

My take on it is simply put: the heat islands caused by cities wasn't a significant source of error for temperature trends detected in previous studies.

Really that work would have been done by a grad student if climate science wasn't so politically charged. Smiley: rolleyes

According to that brilliant, classic piece of work that is SyFy's Category 7, the urban heat islands are enough to destabilize the mesosphere and cause -100C air to come crashing down to the surface, triggering cyclones that rival the Great Red Spot. But, on the plus side, these heat columns can be dispersed in mere minutes by turning off the power grid, thus instantaneously defeating the killer storm.
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