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World Population Reaches 7 BillionFollow

#27 Oct 18 2011 at 12:11 PM Rating: Decent
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I remember when this happened at 5 billion, and 6 billion people.

Inb4 the world is running out of resources when we hit 8 billion.
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#28 Oct 18 2011 at 12:52 PM Rating: Excellent
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someproteinguy wrote:
Debalic wrote:
Elinda wrote:
Kuwoobie wrote:


I've always thought that the root of every major problem is this. We cannot continue all of our "time tested" practices because they are not working or will soon no longer continue to work. In the minds of most people (here in Florida at least) the year is still 1955, and life works exactly as it does in the board game of the same name. When I think of problems with the economy and infrastructure, it all seems to boil down to overcrowding and lack of resources caused by our inability to adapt to the changes brought about by our growing population.
I think the problem is you weren't here in 1955.

Global fertility rates have declined by half. US population is stable. Our economy and our infrastructure have changed dramatically since 1955.

I think Florida leads the pack in a pretty cutting edge statewide water reuse system.

Anyway, global warming will open up the poles to habitation. Smiley: grin

Right, because the open sea of the north pole just begs for housing complexes.


Housing... Smiley: bah

What we need is that ice to hurry up and melt so we can get to the cheap oil. Smiley: nod


What we need is to stop using fuel sources that were obsolete 50 years ago.
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#29 Oct 18 2011 at 1:05 PM Rating: Good
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What we need is to stop using fuel sources that were obsolete 50 years ago.

Define obsolete.

Or don't, since you'd have to look it up as you obviously don't know what it means and that would defeat the purpose of the exercise.

Does it hurt when your flapping arms smack you in the chest or have you pretty well worn that spot down?
#30 Oct 18 2011 at 4:11 PM Rating: Excellent
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Kuwoobie wrote:
What we need is that ice to hurry up and melt so we can get to the cheap oil. Smiley: nod


What we need is to stop using fuel sources that were obsolete 50 years ago. [/quote]
This x10500.


We have plenty of viable options available to us to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels in the next decade. Nuclear, tidal, wind, solar. The only reason oil is still as widely used for energy needs is because it's big business.

The others, with the exception of nuclear energy, are essentially free aside from start up and maintenance costs.

Edited, Oct 18th 2011 6:13pm by Nilatai
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#31 Oct 18 2011 at 4:19 PM Rating: Decent
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Nilatai wrote:
We have plenty of viable options available to us to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels in the next decade. Nuclear, tidal, wind, solar. The only reason oil is still as widely used for energy needs is because it's big business.


I'm as big a fan of alternative energy as the next guy (moreso really), but it doesn't help the implementation of those alternatives when people can't correctly identify the actual factors and keep repeating falsehoods like this.

We use oil (and coal) because they are far more (cost and energy) efficient means to generate sufficient power for our needs than most of the alternatives. The only one that comes close is nuclear and only if we removed the massive blocks that make it so much more expensive than it should be.


Quote:
The others, with the exception of nuclear energy, are essentially free aside from start up and maintenance costs.


Um... No they aren't. It's exactly this kind of repetition of false "facts" that prevents alternatives from really becoming viable. If you can't honestly and correctly assess the relative costs and value of competing products, you will eternally fail to implement any of them properly.
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#32 Oct 18 2011 at 4:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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No mention of hydro power?

Sad day. Smiley: frown
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#33 Oct 18 2011 at 4:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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If the price of oil was higher relative to those other sources, they would be big business.
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#34 Oct 18 2011 at 4:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Quote:
The others, with the exception of nuclear energy, are essentially free aside from start up and maintenance costs.


Um... No they aren't. It's exactly this kind of repetition of false "facts" that prevents alternatives from really becoming viable. If you can't honestly and correctly assess the relative costs and value of competing products, you will eternally fail to implement any of them properly.

Do you have to conduct multi-million pound exploratory surveys to find wind, sun, water?

Do you have to pay out for drilling rights or mining rights?

As you rightly said, nuclear energy start up costs are a lot higher than they should be. Do you think that might have anything to do with the political power oil and petroleum companies hold worldwide?

Simple fact is, green and nuclear alternatives are just going to get cheaper and cheaper in comparison to fossil fuels as time goes by. Now is the time to start the contingency plan for that, and invest in these alternatives. Sure, it might be more expensive in the short term, but in the long term? I don't think so.

Seriously, gbaji, you're not an expert on everything.


someproteinguy wrote:
No mention of hydro power?

Sad day. Smiley: frown

Completely slipped my mind! Probably because it doesn't really make up that much of the UK's energy production. It's around 1% of our total, iirc. I wrote a dissertation on it two years ago, so the figures might have changed somewhat.
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#35 Oct 18 2011 at 4:52 PM Rating: Decent
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Nilatai wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Quote:
The others, with the exception of nuclear energy, are essentially free aside from start up and maintenance costs.


Um... No they aren't. It's exactly this kind of repetition of false "facts" that prevents alternatives from really becoming viable. If you can't honestly and correctly assess the relative costs and value of competing products, you will eternally fail to implement any of them properly.

Do you have to conduct multi-million pound exploratory surveys to find wind, sun, water?


Of course you do. You have to find places that have good sources of those things, then do environmental studies to determine the impact of tapping into them, then you have to convince people that those impacts are worth the "free" energy you'll get. You don't actually think that the most expensive part of finding oil is finding it, do you?

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Do you have to pay out for drilling rights or mining rights?


Anything that requires the use of a plot of land is going to have those same problems. Moreso given that most alternatives take up much more surface land (which is what we tend to have the most legal squabbles over btw) compared to the amount of energy generated. Do you have any idea how large an area you need to use to generate as much power using Solar as it takes to generate the same power with coal or oil?

Quote:
As you rightly said, nuclear energy start up costs are a lot higher than they should be. Do you think that might have anything to do with the political power oil and petroleum companies hold worldwide?


Do you? I don't. I think it mostly has to do with well meaning environmentalists who've managed to convince people that nuclear energy is just too dangerous to use. While I'm sure the coal folks aren't sad about this, they are not even close to the biggest culprit here.

Quote:
Simple fact is, green and nuclear alternatives are just going to get cheaper and cheaper in comparison to fossil fuels as time goes by.


This is true. As fossil fuels become less available they will become more expensive to utilize. Also, as our technology and methodology improves, the alternatives will become less expensive. Eventually, the alternatives will be more viable. But that day isn't today. Not when they're assessed with anything remotely like a fair market comparison.

Quote:
Now is the time to start the contingency plan for that, and invest in these alternatives. Sure, it might be more expensive in the short term, but in the long term? I don't think so.


There's a difference between "investing" in alternative energy and subsidizing the creation of said alternative or artificially inflating the costs of coal/oil in order to make the alternatives more attractive. At the risk of being obvious, in order for both of the factors which will make alternatives *actually* more viable, we need to both use coal/oil until they reach greater scarcity *and* improve the cost efficiency of the alternatives.

Artificially manipulating the market doesn't actually do either of those. It wont just cost more in the short term, but for a very very long term if we do it this way. Let the needs of the market drive which energy sources we use. It'll work better.

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Seriously, gbaji, you're not an expert on everything.


You wound me! Smiley: grin
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#36 Oct 18 2011 at 6:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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Nilatai wrote:
someproteinguy wrote:
No mention of hydro power?

Sad day. Smiley: frown

Completely slipped my mind! Probably because it doesn't really make up that much of the UK's energy production. It's around 1% of our total, iirc. I wrote a dissertation on it two years ago, so the figures might have changed somewhat.


65-70% here. Smiley: waycool

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#37 Oct 18 2011 at 7:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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Because of the way market shifts work, we should invest in R&D now for other sources of fuel, not get hung up as much on the actual construction.

Also, an externalities market would help give more fair valuations.
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#38 Oct 18 2011 at 7:34 PM Rating: Excellent
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We haven't hit 7 billion yet, according to a few sources.

I know there's no way of knowing an exact number, but the UN says we're still about 30 million off. The UN has estimated that Halloween is when we hit 7 billion. I want my overpopulation-induced mass panic on Halloween, dammit.

Also, I still believe we should be giving some kind of IQ test at a young age. Fail and you're euthanized.

Edited, Oct 18th 2011 9:37pm by IDrownFish
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#39 Oct 18 2011 at 7:44 PM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
Because of the way market shifts work, we should invest in R&D now for other sources of fuel, not get hung up as much on the actual construction.


Yup. I'm a huge fan of funding research. I'm very much against subsidizing alternative energy products though. If you research until the cost point comparison makes an alternative competitive then you will have a much better product than if you tweak the market to make it appear to be competitive today. We hurt the adoption of real alternatives by doing this.

Quote:
Also, an externalities market would help give more fair valuations.


Why not use the real market? Certainly, level the playing field in terms of pollution restrictions, but don't play weighting games after that point. The danger is that some group of people get to decide how much the environmental benefits of wind or solar should weigh against the economic factors and you're just asking for a screwed up result when you do that.
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#40 Oct 18 2011 at 8:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm of the opinion, and maybe it's an incorrect one, that if you created an externalities market based on the counterbalance costs, you could implicitly regulate these industries. Regulation is difficult to get into a fair position.
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#41 Oct 18 2011 at 9:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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Global warming, Over population, Ozone holes, and Canukistan still exists. The solution to all these and more is simple. We need to nuke china, india, and greenland! Problem solved.
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#42 Oct 18 2011 at 10:01 PM Rating: Decent
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...Greenland?
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#43 Oct 18 2011 at 10:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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Once you start nuking, you just can't stop Smiley: schooled
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#44 Oct 18 2011 at 10:13 PM Rating: Excellent
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Addiction is a powerful thing.
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#45 Oct 18 2011 at 10:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
...Greenland?


It's next to canada. The steam cloud will parboil them, and then create a lovely nuclear winter snow. plus all the vaporization should make enough ozone to fix the ozone layer hole! We'll have to make sure the wind is blowing the right way though, or else we might take out finland by mistake.
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#46 Oct 18 2011 at 10:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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Dread Lörd Kaolian wrote:
Debalic wrote:
...Greenland?


It's next to canada. The steam cloud will parboil them, and then create a lovely nuclear winter snow. plus all the vaporization should make enough ozone to fix the ozone layer hole! We'll have to make sure the wind is blowing the right way though, or else we might take out finland by mistake.


This man has thought of a solution to fix all our problems.

Why the hell is Kao now president yet?
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#47 Oct 18 2011 at 11:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
artificially inflating the costs of coal/oil


Thankfully we have oil and coal subsidies to cancel that out
#48 Oct 19 2011 at 11:38 AM Rating: Good
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Also, this is kind of relevant.
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#49 Oct 19 2011 at 7:46 PM Rating: Decent
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Dread Lörd Kaolian wrote:
Debalic wrote:
...Greenland?


It's next to canada. The steam cloud will parboil them, and then create a lovely nuclear winter snow. plus all the vaporization should make enough ozone to fix the ozone layer hole! We'll have to make sure the wind is blowing the right way though, or else we might take out finland by mistake.

I don't think it ever blows in that direction...besides Scandanavia you'll also do wonders to all that pesky permafrost in Siberia.
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#50 Oct 19 2011 at 7:47 PM Rating: Decent
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Sweetums wrote:
gbaji wrote:
artificially inflating the costs of coal/oil


Thankfully we have oil and coal subsidies to cancel that out


At the risk of repeating a relatively recent argument, the "subsidies" (the bulk of which come in the form of tax deductions) are not even remotely close to the amount of cost increases applied to those products (especially oil). The next time you pump gas, look at the sticker listing the amount of taxes applied to every single gallon. It's an absolutely massive amount of money generated by state and federal government by just that one product (to be fair, it's the most heavily taxed). Those taxes all by themselves massively outweigh the total of all the subsidies the entire oil industry receives. Many many times over exceeds them in fact.

And that's before we even start taxing the oil company profits directly. Or import/export tariffs. License fees to operate oil related businesses, costs for exploration rights, and so on, and so on, etc.


If we eliminated all the subsidies to oil companies, and then eliminated all the extra taxes and fees levied on oil companies and the products they make, gasoline would probably be about 1/3rd to 1/2 the cost at the pump it is today (and many other products would be cheaper as well). And that's in the US. Most of the countries in Europe apply massive taxes on oil products (also especially gas). That's why the cost per volume there is so much higher at the pump than it is here (somewhere close to double IIRC).

The suggestion that we don't massively artificially inflate the costs of oil products, especially gasoline, is just plain wrong. Factually, provably wrong. The numbers for those subsidies just don't come close.
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#51 Oct 19 2011 at 8:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The next time you pump gas, look at the sticker listing the amount of taxes applied to every single gallon. It's an absolutely massive amount of money generated by state and federal government by just that one product (to be fair, it's the most heavily taxed). Those taxes all by themselves massively outweigh the total of all the subsidies the entire oil industry receives.

You mean the taxes that go towards the state and federal Dept's of Transportation. For use in maintaining and paving more roads. For more cars and trucks. That use gasoline.

Edit: To be fair, some of the state fees (that aren't basic sales tax applied to all products) don't go towards road construction & maintenance. They go towards underground storage tank maintenance. Or reserve funds for soil & water remediation from petroleum contamination. Having tax-payers foot the bill for this is totally of no benefit to the petroleum companies at all.

Quote:
gasoline would probably be about 1/3rd to 1/2 the cost at the pump it is today

Or it would be 11% cheaper, as shown on the graphic on the linked page (happily, gas today is about the $3.46 shown on the images from 2008). And as the price of crude oil increases, the percentage you pay in taxes actually decreases since many of the taxes are charged as "cents per gallon" and not a percentage of the pump price, meaning they make up a smaller fraction as the base price increases.

So I guess you meant to say "gasoline would probably be about 9/10ths the cost at the pump it is today except we wouldn't have any money for road construction or maintenance for your car".

Edited, Oct 19th 2011 9:14pm by Jophiel
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