ChanchanXI wrote:
Regarding the section I have indicated in bold above, isn't that also an assumption that would need to be justified? Assuming for a moment that it is true, you would still need to establish the "percentage that will use it wrong or not at all". I am finding it difficult to understand how you are justifying the assumption "In a world where birth control is made freely available (hyperbole), a larger number of people will choose to not use it than in a world where birth control is only available to those who purchase it". Perhaps I am misinterpreting your argument?
You are. They don't choose not to use it. They forget to use it. Or they don't think about it. Or they assume that "it wont happen to me", or "I'll just do this once!", and they end out pregnant. And it's not just about being able to afford it. I'm talking about a larger social effect than just whether one can afford to buy birth control. The problem is that we're teaching kids that because birth control exists, sex is "safe". The government handing out condoms and pills just reinforces the idea that sex among people who have no intention of raising a child together if that should result is perfectly acceptable.
It's not just about the economics of the issue.
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The way I am modeling the scenario is there are two situations - one with freely available birth control(Scenario 1) and one with restricted birth control (restricted by cost, Scenario 2). There are also a few different groups of people involved: those who can afford birth control (Group 1), those who cannot afford birth control (2), those who engage in sexual activity (3), those who do not engage in sexual activity(4), those who procreate(5), those who do not procreate(6). Naturally, there is mutual exclusivity between Groups 1&2, 3&4 and 5&6.
Your assumption, noted above, is that the percentage of Group 3 composed of members from Group 2 will increase under Scenario 1. That assumption would be tempered by the data for the percentage of Group 5 composed of members from Group 3 and Group 2 under Scenario 2. Without knowing the actual values, I do not think either one of us could compose a valid argument.
Your assumption, noted above, is that the percentage of Group 3 composed of members from Group 2 will increase under Scenario 1. That assumption would be tempered by the data for the percentage of Group 5 composed of members from Group 3 and Group 2 under Scenario 2. Without knowing the actual values, I do not think either one of us could compose a valid argument.
You're missing the group of people who, because the government hands out condoms in school, and funds free condoms and birth control via PP (and other organizations), don't think that having sex is such a big deal. Then, when they find themselves in a situation where they're horny and neither of them have actually bothered to go to those places and get their free condoms and birth control pills they're more likely to have sex anyway because they've been taught all their lives that sex isn't a big deal and is safe and whatnot. Add to that other government actions which have removed some of the negative consequences if a pregnancy should occur, and the factors against having unprotected sex are drowned out by the need/desire to have sex. It's short term gratification against the potential of long term consequences. Which do you think teens will tend to pick?
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If those are the only variables, I would agree it does not make sense to spend the funds in that situation. I think it would be worth it to determine how that behavior proliferated through the various generations afterwards, though. If one or the other had a better long-term outcome, then it could paint a more thorough picture.
Sure. I doubt any studies have gone that long yet though. We'll see.
gbaji wrote:
I would agree that the availability has likely had an impact on the social acceptance of sexual activity. I may even agree with your point that it results in increased sexual activity across the board. However, if (and only if) the increase sexual activity included the increased use of the now-made-available birth control (where it wasn't available previously), I think you could easily see a situation where overall procreation rates decrease from an increased use of contraceptive.
Obviously. But only if the rate of misuse and/or failure of the contraceptive is lower than the increased rate of sexual activity.
Here's the problem though. Since the 1950s, the percentage of children born to unwed mothers in the US has increased from 3% to 40%. So, if our objective (as you stated) is to prevent children from being born into the conditions in which they'll will require government assistance, then we have absolutely failed. We can argue about exactly what the cause of this is, but I think it's abundantly clear that comprehensive sex education and providing funding for free birth control hasn't slowed down, let alone prevented that increase.
So at the very least, perhaps we shouldn't be so focused on "provide more birth control and education" as the solution. That's clearly not the way to fix the problem you started out saying these things are supposed to prevent.
Edited, May 11th 2011 7:41pm by gbaji