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#102 Mar 09 2010 at 7:50 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
idiggory wrote:
No, that isn't my argument. I was making fun of you.

Maybe you missed the sarcasm?


The day that the argument for gay marriage doesn't consist almost entirely of similarly sarcastic accusatory exaggerations, I'll stop responding to them as though they were meant seriously.
No you won't.
#103 Mar 09 2010 at 8:02 PM Rating: Default
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Sweetums wrote:
gbaji wrote:
idiggory wrote:
No, that isn't my argument. I was making fun of you.

Maybe you missed the sarcasm?


The day that the argument for gay marriage doesn't consist almost entirely of similarly sarcastic accusatory exaggerations, I'll stop responding to them as though they were meant seriously.
No you won't.


Lol... We'll never find out though, will we?
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#104 Mar 09 2010 at 8:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Sure. But can we please agree that the number quoted earlier does not in any way reflect sustained revenue from gay marriage? Pretty please?

I didn't see a study explictly for Washington but the Vermont study they did predicted $11.8 million in year one, $9.5 in year two and $9.1 in year three. Which makes sense -- a quick rush to get married tapering down to a more sustained number. I could easily imagine continued revenues in the seven or eight million per year range.

Massachusetts had 5,994 same sex marriages in 2004 and "only" 1,347 in 2005. I'm having a devil of a time finding data beyond that but even if we assume only 1,000 marriages per year following that, at an average of $7,200 per wedding (from their Mass. study), you have $7.2 million annually not counting government fees.

I've no interest in doing the math for DC but I could believe that it will have a lasting and significant positive impact on the local economy.
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#105 Mar 09 2010 at 8:28 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
Lol... We'll never find out though, will we?

I'm curious, how do you think the question of gay marriage will be looked at in 100 years in the U.S.? Do you think it is an issue our society will still be debating? Will the conservatives ultimately prove their point to the majority of people and the issue largely put to rest in their favor? Do you think liberals will successfully convince everyone for a short period before we all see the problem and overturn it?
#106 Mar 09 2010 at 8:43 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:

Massachusetts had 5,994 same sex marriages in 2004 and "only" 1,347 in 2005. I'm having a devil of a time finding data beyond that but even if we assume only 1,000 marriages per year following that, at an average of $7,200 per wedding (from their Mass. study), you have $7.2 million annually not counting government fees.


Massachusetts has 6 million people. D.C has 500k. Even if we assumed a similar ratio of gay marriages in D.C (unlikely), we'd be looking at $600k/year.

The numbers just don't add up. Hence, why I call them "bogus". It's an appropriate term to use when the number being floated around is an order of magnitude higher than what can reasonably be extrapolated from available data.
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#107 Mar 09 2010 at 8:47 PM Rating: Good
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So what if it is only 500K a year? That's still more than we're getting NOW.

Thus, it is still an increase. Does it matter if it is only 500K vs. 6 Million?

You can argue whatever you like, but an increase is an increase. I'm not aware of any 1 million revenue minimum for laws passed in the US.

[EDIT]

And to be perfectly fair, you aren't factoring in couples that will head to DC in order to get married, because they can't in (say) Virginia.

And in this economy, getting money moving through small businesses is a must. Because we just keep dumping cash into huge corporations, and it isn't doing crap.

Oh wait, you're a Republican...

[EDIT2]

Btw, Vermont has 600K people. Washinton does as well.

The numbers DO add up, for the NEXT 3 YEARS.

Again, L2Read.

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 9:54pm by idiggory
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#108 Mar 09 2010 at 8:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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idiggory wrote:
And to be perfectly fair, you aren't factoring in couples that will head to DC in order to get married, because they can't in (say) Virginia.

Depends largely on the DC marriage laws. As I recall, in Mass. you had to be a resident for a while before you could apply for a marriage license. If the DC laws are looser, it could draw in a considerable number of people from the region.
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#109gbaji, Posted: Mar 09 2010 at 8:52 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) If we go the way the liberals want, instead of becoming an enlightened group of people who realize the fact I stated in the first sentence of this post, we will almost certainly be debating the minutia of whether or not a marriage consisting of two men, a goat, three women, and 5 children should qualify for the same benefits from the government as one consisting of three men, a pig, two women, and 8 children. And we'll have a zillion lines of legal code defining each and every single one of them in order to ensure that no one misses out on their rights to have the full amount of government benefits to which they are entitled.
#110 Mar 09 2010 at 8:58 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
SLIPPERY SLOPE IS SLIPPERY

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#111 Mar 09 2010 at 9:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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If we're going to start with ridiculous exaggerations, I get to say that you will all eventually become a group of paranoid survivalists in the heart of Appalachia, too busy composting your fecal matter to even pay attention to politics anymore. That is, if you don't kill each other first. They were eyein' your pile.

It's only fair.

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 9:01pm by Sweetums
#112 Mar 09 2010 at 9:01 PM Rating: Good
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Because I doubt you'll go back and read my edit, I'll post it here:

Quote:
I didn't see a study explictly for Washington but the Vermont study they did predicted $11.8 million in year one, $9.5 in year two and $9.1 in year three. Which makes sense -- a quick rush to get married tapering down to a more sustained number. I could easily imagine continued revenues in the seven or eight million per year range.


The Population of Vermont is, currently, something around 621,760.

The Population of DC is, currently, something around 599, 657.

These are numbers taken straight from the census.

They are predicting less than that in DC, but it is still a huge amount. Will it level off? Of course. But it will still level off at a value higher than before. Even if all it does is allow for some part time government workers to get more hours for 3 years and create a few more lasting jobs, that's still a nice increase. And it's for something that literally has overwhelming positive aspects.

Studies show that the children of gay couples grow up to be more tolerant and more accepting than the average child. This also means they are less likely to develop drug and alcohol addictions, and are more likely to become active citizens.

This also removes many children from government care, in favor of stable home environments. So, while some of these children will result from IV conception or surrogacy, many will still find themselves out of an orphanage and into a stable environment. In the long run, this increases revenue and decreases public costs.

Just one of the many examples.
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#113 Mar 09 2010 at 9:02 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
idiggory wrote:
And to be perfectly fair, you aren't factoring in couples that will head to DC in order to get married, because they can't in (say) Virginia.

Depends largely on the DC marriage laws. As I recall, in Mass. you had to be a resident for a while before you could apply for a marriage license. If the DC laws are looser, it could draw in a considerable number of people from the region.


I don't think you thought that through. Try again.
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#114 Mar 09 2010 at 9:07 PM Rating: Decent
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I guess I'm confused by your answer. By the main paragraph I'm guessing you think liberals will win out on the issue of gay marriage, but that we'll necessarily slide into a multitude of with significant support for almost any conceivable type of marriage? Or was that merely a suggested consequence? I'm just wondering how you think this will turn out. Not what you think should happen or will happen as a consequence if we make the wrong decision. What will actually happen?

My belief is that some time within the span of 100 years federal laws allowing for the marriage of same sex couples throughout every state will have been established. In 100 years, I believe the majority of people will believe it to be an acceptable and beneficial occurrence. I'm curious what people who differ on their views of gay marriage believe will happen.

This isn't a setup. I'm not going to harass or probably even question you further on it. I just want something more substantial than "I'd like to believe" or "If we go the way the liberals want."

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 9:10pm by Allegory
#115 Mar 09 2010 at 9:10 PM Rating: Excellent
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Allegory wrote:
I guess I'm confused by your answer. By the main paragraph I'm guessing you think liberals will win out on the issue of gay marriage, but that we'll necessarily slide into a multitude of with significant support for almost any conceivable type of marriage? Or was tha tmerely a suggested consequence? I'm just wondering how you think this will turn out. Not what you think should happen or will happen as a consequence if we make the wrong decision. What will actually happen?

My belief is that some time within the span of 100 years federal laws allowing for the marriage of same sex couples throughout every state will have been established. In 100 years, I believe the majority of people will believe it to be an acceptable and beneficial occurrence. I'm curious what people who differ on their views of gay marriage believe will happen.
What are you confused about? Liberals are amoral bastards. Duhr.
#116 Mar 09 2010 at 9:10 PM Rating: Decent
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Sweetums wrote:
What are you confused about? Liberals are amoral bastards. Duhr.

From my perspective Gbaji has yet to answer my question, though he did seem interested in doing so.
#117 Mar 09 2010 at 9:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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Allegory wrote:
Sweetums wrote:
What are you confused about? Liberals are amoral bastards. Duhr.

From my perspective Gbaji has yet to answer my question, though he did seem interested in doing so.
It's pretty easy to guess what he's going to say; just take what he said last time, but use slightly different words.
#118 Mar 09 2010 at 9:16 PM Rating: Default
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idiggory wrote:
Because I doubt you'll go back and read my edit, I'll post it here:

Quote:
I didn't see a study explictly for Washington but the Vermont study they did predicted $11.8 million in year one, $9.5 in year two and $9.1 in year three. Which makes sense -- a quick rush to get married tapering down to a more sustained number. I could easily imagine continued revenues in the seven or eight million per year range.


The Population of Vermont is, currently, something around 621,760.

The Population of DC is, currently, something around 599, 657.


Yes. Key word there is "predicted". That's as meaningless as the prediction for D.C. (and is almost certainly based on the same UCLA study and data btw).

Show me the actual numbers for Vermont. It's been a year, right? How about instead of continuing to parrot the same UCLA study that has produced exaggerated numbers for other states, we look at the actual economic impact. You know. Actual data instead of guesses?

Quote:
Studies show that the children of gay couples grow up to be more tolerant and more accepting than the average child. This also means they are less likely to develop drug and alcohol addictions, and are more likely to become active citizens.


All adopted kids tend to fare better statistically. That's not a valid counter to anything I'm talking about.

Quote:
This also removes many children from government care, in favor of stable home environments. So, while some of these children will result from IV conception or surrogacy, many will still find themselves out of an orphanage and into a stable environment. In the long run, this increases revenue and decreases public costs.


I have no issues with gay couples adopting kids. And I also have no problem with legal recognition of any sort of marriage contract in this context. But that also does not require a change to our laws regarding the granting of marriage licenses and state marriage benefits. There's a baby and bathwater analogy here somewhere...

Can you also understand that we'd have fewer kids in need of adoption in the first place if we placed more social importance on heterosexual couples getting married?


Quote:
Just one of the many examples.


Of what? Am I supposed to guess why you think those examples are relevant? Make a point, if you have one to make...
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#119 Mar 09 2010 at 9:16 PM Rating: Good
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Sweetums wrote:
It's pretty easy to guess what he's going to say; just take what he said last time, but use slightly different words.
Then I suppose I am not smart enough to figure it out; I'd like to hear it said explicitly.

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 9:17pm by Allegory
#120 Mar 09 2010 at 9:21 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:

Can you also understand that we'd have fewer kids in need of adoption in the first place if we placed more social importance on heterosexual couples getting married?
You know what else would work? Mandatory abortions!

Cue segue!
#121 Mar 09 2010 at 9:32 PM Rating: Default
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Allegory wrote:
I guess I'm confused by your answer. By the main paragraph I'm guessing you think liberals will win out on the issue of gay marriage, but that we'll necessarily slide into a multitude of with significant support for almost any conceivable type of marriage? Or was that merely a suggested consequence? I'm just wondering how you think this will turn out. Not what you think should happen or will happen as a consequence if we make the wrong decision. What will actually happen?


You're making no sense here. You want me to say what I think will happen. But not what I think will happen, but what will actually happen? Could you repeat that again in the form of a valid question?

Quote:
My belief is that some time within the span of 100 years federal laws allowing for the marriage of same sex couples throughout every state will have been established. In 100 years, I believe the majority of people will believe it to be an acceptable and beneficial occurrence. I'm curious what people who differ on their views of gay marriage believe will happen.


I believe that the majority of people believe that right now. The problem isn't really about gay couples or acceptance. The problem is about whether one defines "marriage" in a way which absolutely requires that the government provide you with "marriage benefits". If you believe that the absence of government benefits equals a denial of the right to marry, you will arrive at the false conclusion that gay people are being denied their rights, and further that this derives from a broad misunderstanding about the "okness" of gay couples and marriages.

While there certainly is a small percentage of people who oppose gay marriage period, the majority of those who sway the results in bills like prop8 are those who care about the issue entirely in the context of the government benefits. It really is the deciding factor. The reason the gay marriage "cause" seems to be hitting so many roadblocks isn't because of some kind of social immaturity (as you seem to be suggesting). Because of that, no amount of trying to change social views of gay people or gay couples will adequately address the problem.

Hence, my answer. We will either realize that we're arguing different things and correct for it, or we'll continue to go the way we are. In that case, we will have accepted a "government benefits == social condition" paradigm and we will end out with more legislation and government used to define every social condition and status. My example was tongue in cheek, but meant to illustrate that point.

It's not really about gay rights or gay acceptance. Once you realize this, you'll realize that your question is off the mark. Your question assumes that the issue is a rather childishly simplistic conflict between a bunch of evil homophobic gay haters, and a group of enlightened respect-for-everyone types. While I suppose those labels may make some people feel better about themselves, it's *not* an accurate model of the issue itself. And attempting to "solve" the issue without first accurately defining it is kinda going to be non-productive...

Quote:
This isn't a setup. I'm not going to harass or probably even question you further on it. I just want something more substantial than "I'd like to believe" or "If we go the way the liberals want."


Somewhat by definition, you're asking for my opinion, right? I get what you mean though, so that's ok. ;)
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#122 Mar 09 2010 at 9:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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Even if it were a privilege rather than a right, why do you really care that people are getting privileges that are costing neither you nor society anything? Well, unless you profess the rather nebulous proposition that it "devalues" marriage. Let's ignore the fact that out of the countries that legalized same sex marriage, the only one who has a higher divorce rate than the good ol' red white and blue is Sweden. What do you care, though? You probably hated the @#%^ers anyway. Filthy socialists.

So how are we going to quantify how marriage is devalued? Newtons per puppy kicking?

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 9:59pm by Sweetums
#123 Mar 09 2010 at 9:58 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Sir Xsarus wrote:
Well, except in this case it's the government saying that only certain people can buy hybrids.


No. It is exactly like the government deciding it will provide incentives to get people to buy hybrid cars, but not other types of cars. I'm not sure why you'd think otherwise.
Then you're really not very bright.

gbaji wrote:
Quote:
The statement is that assuming the gay marriage will generate a net social benefit why not just let them get married.


I am letting them get married. I'm just not subsidizing their marriages. There are no laws preventing gay couples from having a marriage ceremony, exchanging vows, and entering into the exact sort of civil and social relationships which have been called "marriage" for thousands of years.
But it's not enough, and they don't feel it's enough. They feel their relationship is equivalent.

gbaji wrote:
Quote:
I don't agree with your "reasons" for marriage laws, but assuming you're right, the same reasons don't have to apply to allowing gay marriage. If there are another set of reasons benefits and costs that apply to this scenario, that can also justify it, even though following your reasons it doesn't likely affect single parenting much.


Sure. And you're making a wonderful case for the creation of a new legal status designed specifically to recognize relationships not traditionally associated with child production. Which is exactly what the state of California passed. But instead of being happy, the gay rights folks pushed to get a ruling that said status was unconstitutional in that it represented a "separate but equal" condition. It was that ruling which forced the state to grant marriage licenses to gay couples and which prompted proposition 8.
You're insisting that people feel a certain way about an issue, that it is the only correct way to feel. However people are wrapped up in the institution of marriage. If letting them be married under the current laws is a net positive, then there is really no reason not to.

Right now we are in situation A. If we move to situation B where gay marriage is allowed, there is a net benefit, you've admitted as much in this thread. So what if the reasons aren't the same, it still has a positive effect and it makes a whole bunch of people feel less discriminated, which is also very important.
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#124 Mar 09 2010 at 10:01 PM Rating: Good
Quote:

You're making no sense here. You want me to say what I think will happen. But not what I think will happen, but what will actually happen? Could you repeat that again in the form of a valid question?


He is. He wants to know what you think WILL happen, as in a prediction for the future, not what will happen if so and so.
#125 Mar 09 2010 at 10:12 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
You're making no sense here. You want me to say what I think will happen. But not what I think will happen, but what will actually happen? Could you repeat that again in the form of a valid question?

What I mean is that neither of your responses before was worded as what will actually happen.
Quote:
I'd like to believe that in 100 years we'll become smart enough to realize that "marriage" isn't a piece of paper the government gives you and the people will realize what a silly silly thing it is we're arguing about today.

That is what you want to happen, what you hope will happen, or what you think should happen. That doesn't mean it is what you believe will happen. "I wish it would rain tomorrow," doesn't mean I think it will rain tomorrow, just that I'd like it to.
Quote:
If we go the way the liberals want, instead of becoming an enlightened group of people who realize the fact I stated in the first sentence of this post, we will almost certainly be debating the minutia of whether or not a marriage consisting of two men, a goat, three women, and 5 children should qualify for the same benefits from the government as one consisting of three men, a pig, two women, and 8 children. And we'll have a zillion lines of legal code defining each and every single one of them in order to ensure that no one misses out on their rights to have the full amount of government benefits to which they are entitled.

That is a hypothetical statement. You're suggesting that if the liberals win these are the consequences, but you aren't asserting that the liberals will or will not win. "If it rains tomorrow then I will bring an umbrella," does not mean I think it will rain tomorrow, it just says what I will do if it does.

It is not my intention to play a semantics game. But a literal interpretation of what you had said did not answer my question. You had said what you want to happen, you had said what hypothetically might happen, but you had not said what you think will happen. Do you understand my previous confusion and objection then?
gbaji wrote:

I believe that the majority of people believe that right now. The problem isn't really about gay couples or acceptance. The problem is about whether one defines "marriage" in a way which absolutely requires that the government provide you with "marriage benefits". If you believe that the absence of government benefits equals a denial of the right to marry, you will arrive at the false conclusion that gay people are being denied their rights, and further that this derives from a broad misunderstanding about the "okness" of gay couples and marriages.

While there certainly is a small percentage of people who oppose gay marriage period, the majority of those who sway the results in bills like prop8 are those who care about the issue entirely in the context of the government benefits. It really is the deciding factor. The reason the gay marriage "cause" seems to be hitting so many roadblocks isn't because of some kind of social immaturity (as you seem to be suggesting). Because of that, no amount of trying to change social views of gay people or gay couples will adequately address the problem.

Hence, my answer. We will either realize that we're arguing different things and correct for it, or we'll continue to go the way we are. In that case, we will have accepted a "government benefits == social condition" paradigm and we will end out with more legislation and government used to define every social condition and status. My example was tongue in cheek, but meant to illustrate that point.

It's not really about gay rights or gay acceptance. Once you realize this, you'll realize that your question is off the mark. Your question assumes that the issue is a rather childishly simplistic conflict between a bunch of evil homophobic gay haters, and a group of enlightened respect-for-everyone types. While I suppose those labels may make some people feel better about themselves, it's *not* an accurate model of the issue itself. And attempting to "solve" the issue without first accurately defining it is kinda going to be non-productive...

This is fairly close to what I want. I don't want to frustrate you too much, but I am going to have to ask for some clarification.

Are you saying that the small percentage of people who you believe understand the difference between marriage and marriage benefits will fail to convince the majority or will they succeed (in the context of creating legislation)? It seems like you think they will fail, which will lead to some further legislative gains by the majority who believe marriage and marriage benefits must be tied, and that this will lead to other issues.

Will then the issue of gay marriage be settled the way liberals want it (nationally, with full straight marriage benefits), and will this be permanent? Or do you think at some point this minority might convince or correct the alleged misunderstandings of the majority?

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 10:13pm by Allegory
#126 Mar 09 2010 at 10:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Show me the actual numbers for Vermont. It's been a year, right? How about instead of continuing to parrot the same UCLA study that has produced exaggerated numbers for other states, we look at the actual economic impact. You know. Actual data instead of guesses?

Exactly. It's only been a year. Studies usually take longer than that to collect all they need to know. You can look at the study they did of the first couple years of Mass though if you're actually interested in the "data" (it always tickles me when you pretend to care about data) and want to go look it up.
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